Puntteri
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Posts posted by Puntteri
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Re: Finland league cup 17th Feb IFK Mariehamn - TPS Turku Yes. Ykkönen is difficult because all the potential goal scorers have gone to Veikkausliiga and the goals - if there are any - come from somewhere which is usually a surprise to me even if I watch the match. Kakkonen is good for me but I can not see how can you do it abroad, I do not even check the tables before betting but need to talk with the guys. 100 % amateur league.
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Re: Finland league cup 17th Feb IFK Mariehamn - TPS Turku Well, there was early value in Honka but now the price change has gone to the right direction. There should be goals tomorrow.
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Re: Finland league cup 17th Feb IFK Mariehamn - TPS Turku FT 1-0. I have said it before, but do not follow the money blindly in Finnish football but keep your head calm. There was a huge drop for TPS when punters started reacting to ... I am not even sure to what. Team news about a flu in IFK camp?
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Re: Finland league cup 17th Feb IFK Mariehamn - TPS Turku The odds have turned around, my numbers show value in IFK now. I do not like this match at all, no bet for me. I am afraid this is not the same Wurz that you have in mind but a namesake Mozzi, but there is no official information to confirm his identity. No streams ever for League cup, they are not televised. Veikkausliiga this season might be another thing as they just made a new deal - they will broadcast five matches out of seven every round from friday to monday! It will be on a pay - tv, but surely there will be ways to stream them, though I am no expert in that.
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This is not one of my favourite fixtures. Mariehamn have big home advantage, but they tend to dismiss this competition and lack a decent striker. TPS have 2 new test players - well Toni Kolehmainen got a contract with them according to the latest Team News and the other one is an unknown Dane Rasmus Würtz - which will not probably really help them in this match, but personally I see that a in-form striker TPS Babatunde Wusu can decide these kind of matches by himself. Asian limits with a big pencil.
There was TPS - 0,25 @ 2.03, at the moment the odds are pretty much correct. The team news are a bit obscure as always when we talk about Finnish Veikkausliiga news feed, but the following IFK Mariehamn players bolded are out, and there might be some other players also missing because of flu. "IFK:n joukkue on kärsinyt viime päivinä vilustumisoireista ja lopullinen pelaaryhmä keskiviikon otteluun lyödään lukkoon vasta ottelupäivänä. Varmuudella sivussa ovat loukkaantuneet Sasha Anttilainen, Wilhelm Ingves ja Simon Enqvist, Turkissa testileirillä oleva Dmytro Pronevych sekä Kosovon maajoukkueen matkassa oleva Arsim Gashi." However, these 5 players missing mean almost nothing. Anttilainen, Ingves and Gashi played a lot of minutes last season, but failed to make an impact. IFK are testing Echiabhi Okodugha from KuPS. TPS have resurrected in the late months. The manager left, two of their best players left along with some others and they were also about to get forced out of their stadium, but with the youngsters improving and some interesting signings like NT legend Jonatan Johansson there seems to be a peace and understanding again in the TPS camp and they can look confidently into the season starting in April. Johansson is not in the squad for some though as he prefers to tune himself into match fitness on his own back home in Scotland! IFK Mariehamn is about the same quality as they were last season when they finished 4th, but the League Cup or Finnish Cup have never been their cup of tea, and I am not quite sure what to expect from them in these matches which they consider as friendlies and testing occasions.IFK -0,25 : TPS 0,25 48.6% - 51.4% (2.06 - 1.94) IFK 0 : TPS 0 57.1% - 42.9% (1.75 - 2.33) -
Re: Finland League Cup http://www.veikkausliiga.com/News.aspx?type=1&ID=37745 Bolded players not playing for various reasons. Also some good news, at least in a matter of quantity, new signing from div 2 Kåre Björkstrand. "Viikonlopun Tammiturnaus verotti FF Jaron rivejä ikävästi. Heikki Ahon ohella myös testissä oleva Ilja Vaganov on viikonlopun jäljiltä loukkaantuneiden kirjoissa. Vaganovin polvi vääntyi pahannäköisesti viikonloppuna ja miehen sairasloman pituus selviää näinä päivinä. Viikonloppuna loukkaantuneen kaksikon lisäksi pois harjoitusvahvuudesta Jarolla ovat edelleen pitkäaikaistoipilaat Jani Sarajärvi ja Petter Meyer. Jari Sara harjoittelee joukkueen mukana muuten normaalisti, mutta peliharjoituksiin nuorukainen ei vielä osallistu. Lisäksi Tommi Haanpää on armeijassa ja Marco Matrone on testissä Englannissa.
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Re: Finland League Cup Having taken another look at the injury list of Jaro I took AC Oulu - 0,5 @ 2.00, but Oulu is not a club that I will be backing a lot this season. They seriously lack quality in every other department except manager. IFK Mariehamn - FC Honka has been relocated indoors, if my memory serves me right the new venue Eckeröhallen is a bit small.
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Re: Finland League Cup I will probably skip both of these unless something valuable comes up or odds move significantly. In the first match two poor teams meet and Jaro have changed (weakened ) a lot since last year and have several absentees as well, in the other one two good teams face each other, well there my first instict says it could be underish.
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Re: Finland League Cup
Actually also the 4th new signing for JJK is an experiended league player with over 200 league games, Jarkko Okkonen. He did play at Haka pairing Juha Pasoja as a center back some years ago, but was for a while concentrating on his studies and played at 3rd division to stay fit. And Pasoja would have a lot more international matches with the National Team but there was a Sami Hyypiä playing on his position. The biggest signing yet is the coach, Kari Martonen with Honka & Haka background and the signs from JJK camp have been very positive. Haka is also testing striker Jukka Santala who would probably bring some life into the very anemic offence of Haka. Conditions are cold, the pitch is artificial and outside unless they decide to to change it indoors at Hämeenlinna. No home support to be expected for this arctic encounter on a training ground. The handicaps are not that much wrong anymore, last week bookies offered +1.25 for JJK but were saved by the arctic conditions.26.01.2010. - 15:30 h - Haka v. JJK As far as I know, this game will be played outside, on artificial turf; temperature around -10 ( just like last Friday- correct me if I am wrong). Haka has not signed any player since the end of last season ( there are couple of guys on a test period). On the other hand, three players left the club: defenders Pietari Holopainen ( 22 league games; 5 goals) and Petri Viljanen ( 18 league games) and midfielder Mika Mäkitalo ( 23 games; 4 goals). Sami Ristilä is ( still) a coach of this team. About friendly games: they played against PoPa Pori last Friday, and won 3:0 (3:0). JJK got a new coach: Kari Martonen. They brought three experienced players: defender Juha Pasoja from Adeccoligaen - Hamarkameratene ( 19 league games; 4 goals), midfielder Touko Tumanto from Inter Turku ( 14 league games) and attacker Mikko Hyyrynen from FF Jaro ( 23 league games; 4 goals). JJK played two games in this preseason period: in early december they played with KPV (0:0); in January won against MP Vehkalampi 5:1 (2:0). Last season, JJK managed to grab 4 points in their mutual matches: draw at Harjun (0:0) and won at Valkeakoski ( 2:4). Conditions for football are very bad, I suppose ( can someone from Finland describe for us state of field?). When markets have been opened ( last week), odds on Haka were around 1.35-1.60 ( funny). Now, odds are around 1.80-1.95 on HW. For me, realistic odds would be around 2.00 ( minimum) for HW. So, DC on JJK ( between 1.80-2.00) or under 2.5 would be my choices. X2........ under 2.5 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle Sports) Other oppinions? Advices? -
Re: Finland League Cup The problem with odds for smaller competitions like this is that you really should be always awake when the early prices are published. It is not uncommon to see big pricing errors, Honka for example was priced at 2.20 at silly bookies. Another example of massive bookie mistake was the other - unfortunately postponed - match between Haka and JJK where asian bookies offered first 1.80 for JJK + 1.25. By the time the match was cancelled the price had dropped to 1.69 for JJK + 0,75. Bookies were saved by the weather this time, but there will be more errors, at the moment the odds for Finnish matches are mostly based on final tables of 2009, and soon they will take into account the League Cup results and friendlies which do not really tell you too much about anything. Example, again Honka; they played three friendlies in December drawing with VPS and MyPa and winning Lahti easily. What you can not see from the results is that Honka substituted 10 players at half-time in each match, and that Lahti had only a couple of players from their first team along. About today´s game, yes, I have Honka too. Honka coach Mika Lehkosuo was a bit mysterious when asked about the line-up, but most likely the two central midfielders will be 18 year old talents. If I had to pick match totals I would go for an over, but the price of that has dropped too and obviously I am not alone with my thoughts. for all the patient readers a link to official transfer page; and another link to League Cup groups and fixtures Now off to see the match. good luck.
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Re: Finland League Cup As Mozzi mentioned already TPS have weakened significantly during the winter, the names probably do not mean too much for most punters here, but they have lost 4 key players and the coach. Honka is unchanged except of the transfer of Perovuo to Djurgården, a couple of other midfielders might be absent also tomorrow - Schuller for sure because of injury - but Honka have the widest material in the League for midfield so the quantity is not the problem. Perovuo might be missed though, he was the both the anchor and the playmaker in the midfield forming a good axis with center back Hakanpää and top striker Hermanni Vuorinen. This competition itself is a bit funny and not too important, the 14 league clubs have been divided into two geographical groups, and 5 out best 6 teams are in the southern one. No one seems to complain. The other match is postponed (to 26th Jan) due freezing temperatures, Honka match is played indoors. In the league cup there are more questionmarks than in the league and most clubs are still testing new players and exact estimations are difficult to give, but Honka´s probability of win is around 50-55 %. Or perhaps a bit more, we will see it tomorrow. There is no reason yet to believe that TPS would be again in the top three, but the leagues in Finland are sometimes very surprising. The league starts in April, with hugely improved tv visibility as most matches are broadcast over the weekend, but there are still almost 3 months to go.
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Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010)
Ghana do not even have to win BF if they manage a low-scoring draw tonight. Say, 0-0 tonight and then 1-1 with Burkina Faso would see both of them through and one of the favourites out. First instinct for this match is under 2 goals @ 2.26abit of info - last time these play it was 4-2 to Ghana in the 3rd place tie. Ghana do not need to win and may just go out for a draw and hope to beat Burkino in their other game. Ivory need to win and i think Ghana will be trying to play on the break maybe [which explains my under 2.5 goal bet] if ivory play to their ability they will win quite simply, the Ghana team is possibly too young to handle the likes of Drogba, however this cup has been bizarre this year and i see good value in Ghana if Ivory don't take their chances again. edit * Ghana gone now from 4.20 to 3.80 also.. -
Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010) Interesting tournament and a great learning opportunity. Performances are far from solid, and market movements have been huge back and forth and no one seems to have a good reasoning for anything. I see there are mixed feelings and thoughts about this. After watching carefully all the matches so far - and fortunately making most bets in running - for today the only bet I could think of is Algeria. Thery were awful in the first match, but there is so much room for improvement in the squad that in my papers they are slightly favourites against Mali. Only slightly but still favourites. I hope they were just mentally absent in the opening match, the atmosphere might have been a bit strange after all the Sodoma and Gomorra going on. I would not be surprised to change my opinion when the match is up and running - it has happened already several times in this tournament - but as a pre-match bet Algeria 0 @ 2.35 is big value for me. Angola - Malawi is totally another matter and I give up. Tempted to go for Malawi + 0,75 but even more tempted to keep the head calm and not to bet. The prices might still change significantly back and forth and definitely if that is more than 2 at some time it represents value. Maybe already at 1.94. Looking forward to another night to remember with African football!
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Re: Half Time Result
Yes, you do. Like I said I have no better alternative to suggest, it is just good to have that in mind. In general, is "good form" really good form or pure luck and a favourable fixture list? It requires manual adjustment, and then it is not a system any more.Thanks for the support guys. I will test this in the near future and possibly change my staking plan. Ive thought about this, too. But you will always have this problem, no matter how many games you look at, dont you? -
Re: Half Time Result Good luck! Instead of a flat stake of 2 units I would suggest a progressive stake of 1% of the bank. Fortunately you have tested already your picks so you can easily test what affect this stake would had done to your bank. Of course you can also play around with other stakes, such as 2 % which you already had as a starting stake. I am not nerd enough to say if your weighting system is right or wrong, but because in all of these leagues mentioned there are way more teams than 10 it might give a wrong impression of some teams if they have happened to have easy or difficult fixtures lately.
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Re: New to football betting, but an interesting idea Hi, in hindsight my answer looks like a bit patronizing, sorry about that as you obviously are not a newbie in betting. Happy New Year!
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Re: New to football betting, but an interesting idea
Hi, to make it short - this system will never fly. The bookies do have quite a good knowledge of the matches they are offering, and in general the favourites show no value at all. If they give you 2.10 for home win they have probably estimated that the correct price should be 2.20. If you follow this system blindly your bank will be dry sooner than you expected. A couple of suggestions; 1) do not try this system with real money 1a) try it with virtual money 1b) forget doubles completely 2) read everything you can find about the concepts of value, probabality, estimations, bookmaker margin, money management and asian handicaps and so on, this forum is full of information. Good luck!I understand that, but I think the reasoning behind it is, the bookies expect a home win.. so that is the basis for the bets. Your expecting 2 home wins, or more precisely, the bookies are. You are just taking their opinion and placing doubles to cover all home win, and draw possibilities -
Re: Soccer Over / Under Analysis spreadsheet
Sure, and I aimed to reply to a thread where they were discussing the bookies who limit their customers back in 2006 but managed to hit this one that I know nothing about ... Happy New Year anyway.From what I can see, that system ended with a -12% Yield, so you won't have to worry about getting limited at bookies then ;) But no, if you win in the long run, there is zero euro bookies to bet with, they will all limit you sooner or later. If you plan on becoming a big winner, there is only very few places you can bet these days. And thats the asian bookies, and the exchanges. -
Re: Soccer Over / Under Analysis spreadsheet Found this nice thread! Time to update, isn´t it? Are there any european bookies left that do not limit you rather sooner than later? I have not tried all of them, but having been more or less kicked out or silly-limited from the ones I have used previously and which are well documented in these comments already at 2006 the motivation to sign-up and try again has pretty much vanished. I guess the answer is no, but wanted to bring you back to 2006 :gimme
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 31st of July - 2nd of August. Have to agree with King this time. VPS is far from being my favorites in the league, but I dont think Lahti can seriously challenge VPS with this combination of a & b-team players. Lahti was lucky to win at RoPS with a similar line-up, but now the stakes for them in the Europe League are even higher after losing only 3-2 at Brugge and they will rest their feet as much as they possibly can ahead of next Thursday´s second leg. Litmanen is not travelling to Vaasa at all, Fofana is suspended and Toivomäki and Moilanen are injured/sick. The bench warmers are taken from the reserve team youngsters and nobody has heard of them. Also gk will probably be rotated and the star striker Rafael will start from the bench. I had a post about Inter-RoPS here earlier, but as it had no informational value and would lead only to speculations about match-fixing I decided to delete it.
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Re: Finland, Midweek, 29-30th of July. Kimera, are you sure you got the odds correctly this time? If this is the reality, I give up betting now.
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Re: Finland, Weekend, 24-27th of July. Thanks m123 for the link. So my view on RoPS is clear now. It is an interesting round really, lots of questionmarks because of the ongoing European games. No one can guarantee what their impact is but I can guess; Jaro - Inter Turku. Getting kicked out of the competition was a disappointment to Turku, but a fair reflection of their scoring abilities lately. There is not one striker who could shoot the ball into the net now. Turku has played well if we forget the let-down game at JJK, but of course, if you do not score, you do not win and there really is no reason to believe that this situation would be improving now. If the odds on AW drop it probably is only because the Jaro was priced too high to start with, and this is just the normal adjustment of the odds at the moment. Jaro is not really struggling, but finding their act again and is a favourite in this encounter, which looks very underish to me. Edit: Mf Matrone is also missing for a couple of weeks, and the Jaro bench is once more very narrow, and the defense will be weakened by the absence of Matrone. Honka - VPS Honka is at best when they have a lot of games and when they are under pressure. For tomorrow´s game they have still some 20 players to choose from because the had the biggest roster of quality players to start with the season, remembering well the crisis they had last season when there were 2-3 games a week and they were riddled with injuries. Honka rotates a lot of players so there are no tired feet. The European League game on Thursday is very important to Honka, but they are quite used to European games by now and can concentrate on this game fully. The line-up on Sunday against VPS will be completely different from the line-up on next Thursday against Qarabaq, the coach will probably field only 3 same backbone players, but it does not mean that it will be any easier for VPS. The good run of VPS consists mostly of wins against the lesser teams, but after sacking their manager early in the season their performances have also improved and they do have a chance. Can ´t really blame anyone who picks Honka, at the moment they are at their best. HJK-Haka Losing to Vetra at home in the European League was a massive setback and disappointment for HJK, and this game is all about their mental strength, if there is any left. At HJK they were already counting their money and planning advertisements for the Fulham-game, but this time Fulham will travel to Lithuania. Haka is not a good team and will find themselves in the midtable when the season is over, but if they still are weeping and feeling miserable at HJK camp they are also vulnerable, and for me this has turned from a tasty HW bet to a definitely no bet.
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Re: UEFA Europa League » 2009-2010 ( 23 July )
no idea really about Vetra, only seen the match reports and I guess the odds are about set right. ------ And now that i finally checked the odds I took a small punt on Vetra with a 1.25 handicap, which is under these circumstances a huge handicap at least with the price of 2.25 available at sbobet. Only qualifying is important, not winning all legs.puntteri what is your opinion on hjk are vetra a strong team -
Re: UEFA Europa League » 2009-2010 ( 23 July )
Fair point Jase. I was under the impression that Honka won 4-0. Now they will be trying to score for sure. I'll stick with Honka' date=' as I think they are the more professional outfit, Agree that the odds are pretty slim.[/quote'] FT score was only 2-0, but 5-0 would give much better idea what was going on on the pitch. Bangor must feel lucky to still have a slight chance after being run over completely. However I choose not to bet, cause for Honka getting through is far more important than winning, and last year at UEFA cup they succeeded losing to an icelandic team of the same quality as Bangor.
Finland Cup 19-20 February
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
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Re: Finland Cup 19-20 February The current odds for todays matches HJK - MyPa & VPS - TamU give no reason for any excitement or analysis. No bets. And by the way, it is league cup, not cup.