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mtom

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  1. Like
    mtom reacted to StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 30th - Aug 1st   
    Aberdeen vs Chikhura Sachkhere
    In our second preview of this 2nd Qualifying Round 2nd Leg Champions League matches we stick with the Scottish theme as we cover SPL club Aberdeen in their home tie versus Georgian outfit Chikhura Sachkhere in a 7:45pm kick-off at Pittodrie. The tie is finely balanced after a 1-1 draw out in Georgia but the Scottish side will be hoping to seal the deal here.
    Aberdeen will be breathing a sigh of relief after the first leg of this tie. Two penalties played a decisive role in that game with Chikhura Sachkhere taking a lead from the spot through Giorgi Koripadze just before half-time with Sam Cosgrove equalising from the penalty spot in the 68th minute. Derek McInnes will be hoping his side can go one better than last season when their Europa League run was ended prematurely by Burnley.
    Chikhura Sachkhere are a team who are not exactly amongst the greats of the European game but they're giving themselves a fighting chance in this tie. Aberdeen may have the advantage of an away goal but if the Georgians score then it puts the pressure on. Samson Pruidze is over-achieving with this group of players. They edged their way past Luxembourg side Fola Esch. Can they take another step into this competition and secure a two legged tie with Croat side Rijeka?
    Well, this is a hard one to call. I knew Aberdeen would find it tough going out to Georgia. Club and national teams have paid for their lack of professionalism but even the most prepared sides can struggle to get a result out there. I still think Aberdeen should secure a win but it's not going to be easy. Chikhura Sachkhere are a resilient side and even if they get beat it won't be by much.
    Aberdeen HT/FT @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes
    BTTS @ 2.62 with Bet365
  2. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 30th - Aug 1st   
    I have few games on my mind.
    Levski - AEK Larnaca
    Pick - under 2.5 goals 
    Odds: 1.80@bet365
    I'll be stubborn and go for an under once again. Last week the odds were slashed and offered a pretty good cash out option prior to kick-off (went down to 1.36 at some point), but a red card for Levski's defender ruined the bet with AEK winning comfortably 3-0. Now, they will arrive in Sofia with just one aim - try not to concede early. I think this will frustrate levski. Many people were expecting them to be an under-ish team under their new manager, however they have been scoring freely in the domestic championship. This was mainly thanks to playmaker Mariani, but he was sold earlier this week and won't feature tomorrow. He was basically the powerhouse of the team.
    The game will be played behind closed doors and if this time we don't see any unfortunate events (red card, early goal, penalty etc.) then the bet should be covered easily.
    Ludogorets - Valur
    Pick - Ludogorets to score in both halves
    Odds: 1.72@bet365
    I can probably write a master thesis on why I disdain ludogorets, and usually avoid betting on them, but I see some value here. The first game they surprised many people and needed an injury-time equalizer in order to avoid a rather shameful defeat. This time around I truly expect them to show complete different face and win comfortably. They will seek an early goal which will pretty much force Valur to open up more and if that happens then I won't be surprised if we see a goal fest.
    Mind you that I've been on a pretty bad run recently, so...you know, don't bet your houses on it 
  3. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 23rd - 25th   
    Valur - ludogorets
    Pick - away win @1.90
    This is one of the bets of the round IMO. After being eliminated from CL ludogorets will seek consolation in Europa League. Their squad was improved by a few new signings this summer and although most of the players that brought them the success in the domestic league and in Europe are getting too old to play most games on a competitive level, they are still a solid squad.
    Valur were well beaten by Maribor in CL and overall are much weaker team. This should be an easy away victory. The only slight concern is whether ludogorets will push for a convincing victory in the first leg or will wait to settle the tie in the second, at home.
    AEK Larnaca - Levski
    Pick - under 2.5 goals @1.80
    Another stand out bet, even though I don't like playing unders. The game will be played in the summer heat in Larnaca (18:30 local time), which might be an advantage to the home team. They weren't convincing in the first leg, beating Moldovan side Petroclub 1-0 in each game, while levski had no problems against Ruzomberog beating them 2-0 twice. Levski should be more defensive this time around and wait for their chances. Given the heat and humidity at that time of the day, I expect a low tempo and a low scoring game and doubt the odds will remain the same in the next few days.
    Good luck!
  4. Like
    mtom got a reaction from vicsuna in Europa League Predictions > Jul 23rd - 25th   
    Valur - ludogorets
    Pick - away win @1.90
    This is one of the bets of the round IMO. After being eliminated from CL ludogorets will seek consolation in Europa League. Their squad was improved by a few new signings this summer and although most of the players that brought them the success in the domestic league and in Europe are getting too old to play most games on a competitive level, they are still a solid squad.
    Valur were well beaten by Maribor in CL and overall are much weaker team. This should be an easy away victory. The only slight concern is whether ludogorets will push for a convincing victory in the first leg or will wait to settle the tie in the second, at home.
    AEK Larnaca - Levski
    Pick - under 2.5 goals @1.80
    Another stand out bet, even though I don't like playing unders. The game will be played in the summer heat in Larnaca (18:30 local time), which might be an advantage to the home team. They weren't convincing in the first leg, beating Moldovan side Petroclub 1-0 in each game, while levski had no problems against Ruzomberog beating them 2-0 twice. Levski should be more defensive this time around and wait for their chances. Given the heat and humidity at that time of the day, I expect a low tempo and a low scoring game and doubt the odds will remain the same in the next few days.
    Good luck!
  5. Thanks
    mtom reacted to StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 16th - 18th   
    Don't worry about it. Games are tough to call this early in the season. Especially in a competition like this where some clubs haven't even started their pre-season yet where as others are in the middle of their league campaign.
  6. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 16th - 18th   
    Titograd - CSKA Sofia
    Pick - over 9 corners@1.87 in bet365
    After demolishing their opponents in the first game, tonight CSKA will show up in Podgorica with the idea of giving some of the fragile players chance to show that they deserve a place in the team. Nobody is expecting a huge surprise, and to be honest after seeing how bad Titogarad were, I tend to agree, even though I hate it when a team underestimates their opponents.
    Last season CSKA were producing plenty of corners mainly because the wingers and the full-backs were crossing the ball in almost every occasion they got. And even though this season so far it seems they will try to use the playmaker Fabrini to get the attacks through the center of the pitch, they still create enough chances which result in corners. In the first game against Titograd there were total of 9 corners (6-3 in favor of CSKA). In the first league game on Friday there were 12 corners (10-2). Tonight I suppose we can see at least 9 corners too.
    Good luck!
  7. Thanks
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 9th - 11th   
    CSKA - Titograd 
    1-0 half time
    4-0 full time
    Bet won, but boy was I lucky  Contrary to what I was expecting CSKA actually played quite bad in the first 30 minutes or so. I suppose they were nervous being their first official game and such, but luckily after a free kick and a goalkeeper's error in the 40th minute they managed to score. The second half was much, much better and 4-0 is the least they could've won.
  8. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Jul 9th - 11th   
    CSKA Sofia - Titograd
    CSKA to score in both halves - 1.61@bet365
    For the first time in years CSKA has kept most of their good players and strengthened their squad even more by adding 8 new players to the squad. The ambition is clear - challenging the title in the domestic league and having a good run in Europe. The first step to the latter starts today when they host Titograd. The Montenegrin side finished 4th in their domestic league but from what i've read most of their quality players left the team and this season they will rely mostly on younger, more inexperienced players.
    This is the first official game for CSKA for the season and the fans are eager to see the players in action. The team played some solid friendly games and overall the team morale is high. A slight problem might be the absence of both regular central defenders Chorbadjiiski (suspended) and Bodurov (injured, facing a late fitness test but most likely wont be risked). The right back in this game Atanasov would actually be the only weak link in the squad.
    Overall CSKA is class above their opponents and if they don't make the foolish mistake of underestimating Titogard they should win easily. The odds for a win are ridiculously low, but I find some value in having CSKA to score in both halves. Last season they loved putting pressure on their opponents from the start and I don't see a reason why shouldn't they do it again tonight. The players are aware that the fans are expecting nothing but a win, so an early goal would definitely make the game easier for them. And from then on I think they should be able to get a couple more in the second half too.
    Good luck!  
  9. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Apr 22nd & 23rd   
    Aren't Mansfield slightly overpriced? I know Oldham are in good form, unbeaten in 5, winning 3 in the process, but they have only theoretical chances for the playoffs, while Mansfield are in contention for promotion. Surely the away win carries some value?
  10. Like
    mtom reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Easter Monday   
    Fylde can catch Wrexham so still have something to play for. I know it’s a long shot but they can still finish 3rd as well. Not saying Salford still won’t win but I can’t imagine Fylde will just turn up and give them the 3 points
  11. Like
    mtom got a reaction from Xcout in Play-Off Round Predictions > Aug 30th   
    Atalanta seems worth a shot. Copenhagen were lucky not to lose in Italy last week. Having watched both their games against CSKA in the previous round I don't consider them as good as I thought they would be. Yes, they are a typical solid nordic team, but if it weren't for the referees in both games they could've struggled against CSKA. 
    Atalanta started great in Serie A, they play fast and efficient football and should be able to win. The odds look good for an away win.
  12. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Play-Off Round Predictions > Aug 30th   
    Atalanta seems worth a shot. Copenhagen were lucky not to lose in Italy last week. Having watched both their games against CSKA in the previous round I don't consider them as good as I thought they would be. Yes, they are a typical solid nordic team, but if it weren't for the referees in both games they could've struggled against CSKA. 
    Atalanta started great in Serie A, they play fast and efficient football and should be able to win. The odds look good for an away win.
  13. Like
    mtom got a reaction from hristofor in 3rd Qualifying Round Predictions > Aug 14th - 16th   
    FC Copenhagen - CSKA Sofia
    Both teams to score: Yes
    Odds: 2@bet365
    Stake: 2/10
    It's do or die for CSKA. After taking the lead last week CSKA lost 2-1 at home, which makes the chances of proceeding very slim, but the team has left for the Danish capital in high spirits and will hope to cause major upset. To be honest, I doubt they can do it, but at least I am certain they will give a hard time to their opponents.
    Last week CSKA started brightly but then the referee decided to take a decisive part in the game, and after a couple of absolutely shocking and deliberate decision against CSKA (admitted even by Copenhagen's manager), the visitors managed to turn things around and played very well in the second half. CSKA will be without one of their main CB who was sent off last week and without the regular LB who got injured in the training prior to the first match. On the bright side, the captain Bodurov (CB) is back as is midfielder Malinov. CSKA's striker Maurides is on fire having scored 8 goals in 7 games so far and once again he will be the main threat to the danish defense.
    As for Copenhagen, they showed more maturity and waited patiently their chances. They are aware that tomorrow CSKA will search for an early opening and I am sure they will wait for their chance on the break. 
    Overall, the game should be entertaining and I can see both teams scoring, which makes the odds quite appealing.
    Good luck!
  14. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 3rd Qualifying Round Predictions > Aug 14th - 16th   
    FC Copenhagen - CSKA Sofia
    Both teams to score: Yes
    Odds: 2@bet365
    Stake: 2/10
    It's do or die for CSKA. After taking the lead last week CSKA lost 2-1 at home, which makes the chances of proceeding very slim, but the team has left for the Danish capital in high spirits and will hope to cause major upset. To be honest, I doubt they can do it, but at least I am certain they will give a hard time to their opponents.
    Last week CSKA started brightly but then the referee decided to take a decisive part in the game, and after a couple of absolutely shocking and deliberate decision against CSKA (admitted even by Copenhagen's manager), the visitors managed to turn things around and played very well in the second half. CSKA will be without one of their main CB who was sent off last week and without the regular LB who got injured in the training prior to the first match. On the bright side, the captain Bodurov (CB) is back as is midfielder Malinov. CSKA's striker Maurides is on fire having scored 8 goals in 7 games so far and once again he will be the main threat to the danish defense.
    As for Copenhagen, they showed more maturity and waited patiently their chances. They are aware that tomorrow CSKA will search for an early opening and I am sure they will wait for their chance on the break. 
    Overall, the game should be entertaining and I can see both teams scoring, which makes the odds quite appealing.
    Good luck!
  15. Like
    mtom got a reaction from Magic0024 in 3rd Qualifying Round Predictions > Aug 14th - 16th   
    FC Copenhagen - CSKA Sofia
    Both teams to score: Yes
    Odds: 2@bet365
    Stake: 2/10
    It's do or die for CSKA. After taking the lead last week CSKA lost 2-1 at home, which makes the chances of proceeding very slim, but the team has left for the Danish capital in high spirits and will hope to cause major upset. To be honest, I doubt they can do it, but at least I am certain they will give a hard time to their opponents.
    Last week CSKA started brightly but then the referee decided to take a decisive part in the game, and after a couple of absolutely shocking and deliberate decision against CSKA (admitted even by Copenhagen's manager), the visitors managed to turn things around and played very well in the second half. CSKA will be without one of their main CB who was sent off last week and without the regular LB who got injured in the training prior to the first match. On the bright side, the captain Bodurov (CB) is back as is midfielder Malinov. CSKA's striker Maurides is on fire having scored 8 goals in 7 games so far and once again he will be the main threat to the danish defense.
    As for Copenhagen, they showed more maturity and waited patiently their chances. They are aware that tomorrow CSKA will search for an early opening and I am sure they will wait for their chance on the break. 
    Overall, the game should be entertaining and I can see both teams scoring, which makes the odds quite appealing.
    Good luck!
  16. Like
    mtom got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 3rd Qualifying Round Predictions > Aug 7th - 9th   
    CSKA - FC Copenhagen
    Pick - over 4.5 corners 1st half
    Odds: 1.80@bet365
    Stake: 2/10
    So...one of the most important games for CSKA in nearly a decade will be played tomorrow. After years of absence from Europe CSKA returned this season firstly with an unconvincing victory against Riga (after penalty shootout), following much better display against Austrian Admira Wacker to reach to the point where they meet the tough opposition of FC Copenhagen, a team that has established itself well both domestically and internationally.
    The game tomorrow will be played on the National stadium, in stead of CSKA's home stadium, but this shouldn't be a problem because so far the estimated attendance is about 20k or over. The home team will be once again without experienced defender and captain Bodurov and midfielder Malinov, but neither of them played against Admira, so the team won't be affected that much. 
    Right now CSKA is on fire - unbeaten in the domestic league (3 victories, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded), the attack is lethal and due to the versatility of the wingers the manager has plenty of options. The only weak link is the goalkeeper, who, even though, conceded just twice so far in 7 official games this season (once against Riga and once against Admira) is prone to mistakes. 
    Copenhagen are also flying high at the moment. They had no problems in the previous round and are doing very well in the domestic championship too. Fischer, ex Ajax player, is one of their stars. As are the attacking duo N'doye and Kodro. 
    The European experience which Copenhagen posses should help them, but really, as unbiased as I am trying to be, CSKA right now is pure joy to watch. The morale is high, the fans are behind the team and create amazing atmosphere so even though I suppose the Danish side would edge overall and proceed I am just not that certain that they will win tomorrow. However, I am going with the corners pick, because so far CSKA is producing plenty of them. And I am taking a bit riskier bet with limiting myself only on the 1st half corners for two reasons - first, they covered the line against Riga at home and against Admira too. Secondly, I expect the team to try and put some pressure early on and to use the momentum. Fast wingers + a massive striker (seriously this guy Maurides is huge) = plenty of crossings. On the other hand, the Danish outfit uses plenty of crossing too, in search of N'doye. So I think we can see at least 5 corners in the first half.
    Good luck 
  17. Like
    mtom got a reaction from Magic0024 in 3rd Qualifying Round Predictions > Aug 7th - 9th   
    CSKA - FC Copenhagen
    Pick - over 4.5 corners 1st half
    Odds: 1.80@bet365
    Stake: 2/10
    So...one of the most important games for CSKA in nearly a decade will be played tomorrow. After years of absence from Europe CSKA returned this season firstly with an unconvincing victory against Riga (after penalty shootout), following much better display against Austrian Admira Wacker to reach to the point where they meet the tough opposition of FC Copenhagen, a team that has established itself well both domestically and internationally.
    The game tomorrow will be played on the National stadium, in stead of CSKA's home stadium, but this shouldn't be a problem because so far the estimated attendance is about 20k or over. The home team will be once again without experienced defender and captain Bodurov and midfielder Malinov, but neither of them played against Admira, so the team won't be affected that much. 
    Right now CSKA is on fire - unbeaten in the domestic league (3 victories, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded), the attack is lethal and due to the versatility of the wingers the manager has plenty of options. The only weak link is the goalkeeper, who, even though, conceded just twice so far in 7 official games this season (once against Riga and once against Admira) is prone to mistakes. 
    Copenhagen are also flying high at the moment. They had no problems in the previous round and are doing very well in the domestic championship too. Fischer, ex Ajax player, is one of their stars. As are the attacking duo N'doye and Kodro. 
    The European experience which Copenhagen posses should help them, but really, as unbiased as I am trying to be, CSKA right now is pure joy to watch. The morale is high, the fans are behind the team and create amazing atmosphere so even though I suppose the Danish side would edge overall and proceed I am just not that certain that they will win tomorrow. However, I am going with the corners pick, because so far CSKA is producing plenty of them. And I am taking a bit riskier bet with limiting myself only on the 1st half corners for two reasons - first, they covered the line against Riga at home and against Admira too. Secondly, I expect the team to try and put some pressure early on and to use the momentum. Fast wingers + a massive striker (seriously this guy Maurides is huge) = plenty of crossings. On the other hand, the Danish outfit uses plenty of crossing too, in search of N'doye. So I think we can see at least 5 corners in the first half.
    Good luck 
  18. Like
    mtom got a reaction from Jokerjoedk in Bulgaria "A" PFG > 2017/18   
    Final score - Vereya - Beroe 0:2
    Bet won
    Comfortable win for the better team.
  19. Like
    mtom reacted to cluelessG in 2nd Qualifying Round Predictions > Jul 31st & Aug 1st   
    Re: MOL Vidi - Ludogorets - not related to betting!
    I don't particularly like Ludogorets either but big football is big business, so if the owner is making money, then he's doing a good job. If we start black-listing "shady, rich owners", then we have to get rid of way too many of the biggest teams in Europe.
    I am not sure that MOL Vidi is a good example of nice club - it's true that they have fans and history but their ownership is pretty shady. As far as I know, the owner is István Garancsi who is a close friend of the Hungarian Prime minister and has business interests in many areas, including oil and construction. He has been mentioned in scandals about the government securing cheap gas from abroad and allowing his company to sell it in Hungary; huge government contracts, etc. The main sponsor of the club is MOL, which is the local oil company - 25% of the shares owned by the state, which bought the shares from a Russian oil company. As you know, the Hungarian PM (another controversial character) is a fan of MOL Vidi and I am pretty sure he pulls a lot of strings in the club.
    I used to work for a huge multi-national company with a factory in Szekesfehervar, where MOL Vidi is located. The company is bigger than MOL globally but of course its Hungarian business is much smaller than that of MOL. So the managers of this company explained to us that they would never sponsor a professional sports team. Instead they preferred to spend money on community projects. So they thought that their workers in Szekesfehervar would be happier if their kinds got a nice new public playground to play at and if the community got a new park instead of the company pouring the same amount of money into the local football club.
  20. Thanks
    mtom got a reaction from Xcout in 2nd Qualifying Round Predictions > Jul 26th   
    That's true, so my apologies. All I wanted to do is make sure the neutral reader is properly informed, precisely because we are here the help each other.
    I mean, misleading a bunch of people who rely on your information, just because you don't like a particular team is really a low blow and that's why I called him out. 
    I'll try to "mind my own business" though and help as much as I can, wherever I can. 
  21. Like
    mtom got a reaction from Xcout in 2nd Qualifying Round Predictions > Jul 26th   
    That's such a misleading and biased statement. Lack consistency? They've played just 3 official games so far - winning at home against Riga (first European game in years, with a new manager and a bunch of new players), so the beginning was indeed poor, but they controlled the ball more, had the better chances and rightfully won. Then lost in the following game in Latvia after the dumbest mistake a GK can make (mind you that was probably the only shot on target for Riga), missed a penalty in the last minute and still managed to get through penalty shootouts. Moreover, they had to play with 10 men from mid second half, through extra time.
    And to top off that "lack of consistency" they won the first game in the championship (if I am not mistaken against your favorite team, hence the misleading statement). Once again after a rather slow first half, they completely destroyed their opponents in the second half, controlling the game and scoring two goals. So wow, what a "mediocre" team, right?
    Sure, it will be a big blow that Bodurov (captain and solid defender) and Malinov, plus Tiago who is the mastermind behind most attacks will all miss the game, but did you even check the missings in the visitors' squad? Two regular defenders from last season. Also they've sold some of their key players. Lost against a third tier club for the cup last week and they are full of young players with no European experience whatsoever. And to top it off they will be without their manager, who stayed in Austria for personal reasons. 
    Of course the Austrians will try not to lose and it is a certain possibility, but to call CSKA a mediocre team compared to the visitors, who are usually a joke in their own championship, is just plain misleading to all those who read your previews.
    Home victory just dropped far too much, so there is really no real value anymore, so I'd rather back corners (over 9.5) in the game. With CSKA's fast wingers who will be the main threat and the new striker I suppose there will be plenty of crossings, so I think that's the best choice for tonight. Good luck!
  22. Like
    mtom got a reaction from MABS in 2nd Qualifying Round Predictions > Jul 26th   
    That's such a misleading and biased statement. Lack consistency? They've played just 3 official games so far - winning at home against Riga (first European game in years, with a new manager and a bunch of new players), so the beginning was indeed poor, but they controlled the ball more, had the better chances and rightfully won. Then lost in the following game in Latvia after the dumbest mistake a GK can make (mind you that was probably the only shot on target for Riga), missed a penalty in the last minute and still managed to get through penalty shootouts. Moreover, they had to play with 10 men from mid second half, through extra time.
    And to top off that "lack of consistency" they won the first game in the championship (if I am not mistaken against your favorite team, hence the misleading statement). Once again after a rather slow first half, they completely destroyed their opponents in the second half, controlling the game and scoring two goals. So wow, what a "mediocre" team, right?
    Sure, it will be a big blow that Bodurov (captain and solid defender) and Malinov, plus Tiago who is the mastermind behind most attacks will all miss the game, but did you even check the missings in the visitors' squad? Two regular defenders from last season. Also they've sold some of their key players. Lost against a third tier club for the cup last week and they are full of young players with no European experience whatsoever. And to top it off they will be without their manager, who stayed in Austria for personal reasons. 
    Of course the Austrians will try not to lose and it is a certain possibility, but to call CSKA a mediocre team compared to the visitors, who are usually a joke in their own championship, is just plain misleading to all those who read your previews.
    Home victory just dropped far too much, so there is really no real value anymore, so I'd rather back corners (over 9.5) in the game. With CSKA's fast wingers who will be the main threat and the new striker I suppose there will be plenty of crossings, so I think that's the best choice for tonight. Good luck!