froment

Just trying to figure out if using statistics  and knowledge is better than pure random picking.
I am building a data base of predictions from a site on the internet (not this one) and compare their predictions with pure random picks.
 
For so far i have only a couple of days. (not very accurate yet) .
What i see does not impress me much.
btts and win  
site prediction 
1 yes 39      predictions  correct       11
x yes  24      predictions correct       6
2 yes   30     predictions correct       8
total predictions   93   correct   25    =    26.88%
 
random predictions   93     (same matches)  correct 17   = 18.28%
1x2 predictions
site prediction
1    75 pred     correct         39
x     29 pred    correct          8
2      51 pred   correct         29
total 155 games   correct   76   =  49.03% 
 
random prredictions  1x2   (same matches )   155
total correct (1x2)    53.        34.19%
 
Over 2.5
site prediction 
73 predictions         correct    38    = 52.05%
under 2.5
site prediction   
80 predictions      correct    40  =   50%
random predictions   (same matches )   153   correct  73  =  45.75 %
 

Thanks to betgps Excel data. I've been able to create a prediction page in it which works perfectly well. Prediction includes Home win, Away win, Over 1.5, Over 2.5,Btts, Under 3.5. I'll post this later when I make the sheet clean BUT is there anyone who can also create a compilation of the new league data like betgps OR if anyone can send a video of how to go about it, I can do it since I have a lot of free hours to myself. I am just learning Excel and I have cracked my head trying to do the same thing and summit it to the forum or to betgps himself as an art appreciation. Any help will do.

Good morning all!
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I didn't have the spare time to read and digest it all. Rather you than me mate. ?

I've been a bit bored this week, off work for the UK holiday this week. Not much to do, so trawled through the forum and came across my old system test. 
 
I'm going to give this a go again until the end of the season. Would love to make profit, but will be happy to just gain info and see what works (if anything!) to refine for next season. I got frustrated with it last time, as it's very much an up and down system, but looking to be more patient and positive this time!
Last time, the first season produced a profit of around £150.00 roughly.
Same selection criteria before, matches where the last 5 matches between the same 2 teams have produced AT LEAST four over 2.5 goals results. I originally was testing for an overs/under system, but it seemed to throw up a lot of wins for either team. Noticed after a while that it also performed better with no lays of 6.00 or above.
Will test for most European leagues, also English lower leagues. All prices from Betfair, where I now have 2% commission instead of 5% so that should help a little. Lays will be for £10.00 for the sake of records for the system, but NO MONEY WILL BE STAKED AT THIS POINT, and I would strongly recommend no one follow with actual bets this time around, but if anyone feels the need, it should be minimal stakes. Although the first season produced profit, it was £250.00 down at one point, before clawing back at the end. I stopped the 2nd season at -£200.00, so extreme caution advised.
Any questions or comments are welcome. I'll need to wait until at least Friday for first selections, and there won't be many but Saturday and Sunday should be packed.  
 

Here's one for the early birds, a 50/1 chance that's starting to look like an odds on chance.
The Bookies have Bolton Wanderers as 5/1 favourites to win League 2, their reasoning being that Bolton wouldn't have been relegated last season if the club hadn't gone into Administration, but they did, 12 points were deducted, the trap door opened and down they went, that was bad enough but this doesn't help.
On 21 November 2019, Bolton were handed a five-point deduction, suspended for 18 months, and fined £70,000, half of which was suspended for 18 months, for failure to fulfil two fixtures (against Brentford and Doncaster). The points would not be deducted if Bolton fulfil all fixtures during the 18-month period.
So if the club goes into Administration again they wouldn't just have 12 points deducted it would be 12 points plus the 5 above, put it this way, a 17 point deduction would have relegated 9 teams in the Premiership last season, that's how bad a 17 point deduction would be.
But what's the odds of Bolton going into Administration again, would you offer 50/1 if you weren't a Wanderers Fan ? the question is, what could trigger the trap door to see the club relegated again, give this some thought. The club and the adjoining hotel were bought out of Admin last August for around £17.4 million by a consortium headed up by local millionaire businessman Michael James, multimillionaire Sharon Brittan and a couple of smaller players. At the time there were four Directors, but within just a few months two of decided to walk, to Football Ventures is now down to just two Directors, Michael and Sharon, that's the absolute Legal minimum for a company to operate in the UK.
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/11761052/officers
Football Ventures took over the club and the hotel last August, no clouds on the horizon then, the attendance at the club has kept the club afloat for years, chances are the hotel was doing well too, but Covid changes everything. Future Ventures have to find £59,000 a month towards the hotel at a time when hotels are struggling, it doesn't help that Bolton is now the epicentre for Covid, so chances are the hotel won't be bringing in much money. If that's not bad enough, there's no gate money right now, games are played behind closed doors, that's going to put a lot of PRESSURE on a lot of clubs in every league not just BWFC. 
The arrangement with Quantuma, who oversaw the administration of the Bolton Whites Hotel, and David Rubin and Co, who undertook the football club administration, has been secured with club assets. It also included an agreement with Quantuma to defer some payments during lockdown while the hotel was not in operation, with the process set to resume shortly at a reported cost of £59,000 a month.
 
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/18687275.bolton-wanderers-owners-say-will-pay-3-5m-bill-avoid-efl-penalties/
Owning a Football Club is a Vanity Venture for Billionaires these days, Millionaires can soon find themselves out of their depth.
Looking at who's who in League 2, last season just 5 teams of the 24 teams averaged more than 5,000 per game, that's OK if the overheads for your club are as low as Macclesfield, Crawley, Morecambe, Stevenage, Cheltenham and the like, but which club in League 2 do you think has the highest overheads, chances are the bike shed at Bolton is bigger than the Stand at Morecambe, are any teams carrying more debt ? BWFC owe HMRC over £1 million. I don't know about you, but I've lost count already !!!
So where does the money come from to keep the club going, I suppose Michael and Sharon could keep pumping money in, or look for a wealthy Russian or a wealthy Saudi, good luck selling League 2 to them.
Is that 50/1 on offer for Bolton to be relegated into oblivion looking over the odds yet ? I don't think the Bookies considered any of the above, chances are they are thinking a League 1 club playing in League 2, but the team isn't what it was last season, it's now a lads and dads team, youth players and a few can I say OLDER players, that can work, but so far it hasn't clicked, it's P5 D3 L2 and in the process Bolton got beat at home by Bradford City a team who hadn't won away since October 2019 !!!
I fear that Bolton's team look more like Fray Bentos than Juventus, I don't see them doing well in League 2, certainly not well enough to have 17 points deducted and survive the drop.           No doubt the Loyal Fans think the Wanderers will come straight back up, but I fancy the Titanic will come back up before the Wanderers do.
The writing will be on the wall if they don't beat Forest Green this Saturday, that 5/1 to win the league might soon become 50/1 and the 50/1 against being relegated will soon be rubbed off the boards. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/relegation
Perfect Storm.
PS: in case your wondering, my money is on already...
 
 
 

Results 30.08.2020.  + 6.00 pt (1/1) 
Profit/lose: +13.50 pt (3/8)
 
 

This time luck was on your side, Ruzomberok went from 0-2 to 2-2 literally with the final whistle! Nice start to the day, you secured profit. Good luck with your venture!

Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?

You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.

... and every one a gem !
?

Not that I want to remember it, being Scottish and all, but we actually famously lost the match v Costa Rica 1-0, and it was at Italia 90 not Mexico 86.
 
Kinda calls into question the rest of your points, if you can't get those basics right, no?
 
 

If you cared to read, you'd have noticed CGMBet is not prediction site/program at all.

Only mugs/newbie punters unfortunately. Ask yourself this - if you had a system that was earning you profits long term, why would you sell it online?

I'm now 45 and I've seen hundreds of systems, bought a few back in the early days. They're all based on backtesting which is no guarantee for the future.
Stick to your own knowledge, gut feeling and use all the stats you available to you.  

Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
Stakes above are calculated using formula:
Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!

Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
Stakes above are calculated using formula:
Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!

Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
Stakes above are calculated using formula:
Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!

Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
Stakes above are calculated using formula:
Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!

Hey, @Xtc12, have you found this? The ones at Soccerstats do not seem user-friendly, and Footystats is paid service. I had stats for streak since last draw, but streak since last goalless draw seems interesting, so I decided to add it to my stats (for 12 leagues I follow).
For example:
Here are streaks for England Premier; these stats are in column "N0D", "Not drawn 0-0 ".
Here is the specific match, Liverpool vs Man United in this case, streaks are at very bottom.
And here are general 0-0 stats for entire league - Under 0.5 goals is effectivelly 0-0 draw.

You can get somewhat better payout by laying at Betfair. At the moment, you can lay Liverpool at 2.30; if you're on 7% commission, you should stake 3,305 £, for liability of 4,297 £.
If Liverpool wins, you win those 7,371, and lose 4,297, net 3,074; and if Liverpool fails to win, you get that stake, 3,305, or again 3,074 after commission.
You can play with the stake, of course, so to make one or other outcome pays more or less, depending on how confident you are about Liverpool winning.

Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.

You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.

nobody who puts money on betting does it for entertainment
we all do it to make some money

Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.

Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.