froment
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Posts posted by froment
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Re: 10K INVESTMENT IN BFAIR V ISA
I wouldn't worry too much guys' date=' it's only Monopoly money.[/quote'] I thought the same in the beginning, but now I tend to believe he indeed put some money on this. I believe people tend to chase the losses and overbet when they really have their money on line. If he only paper tested, he would have more patience, he would discuss about it (majority of questions or comments fell on deaf ears), and he would also not change the strategy that easy (I mean a couple of in play bets last night), and then switch back again to old strategy after it went pear shaped as well. Anyhow, it's now way to recovery, let's see how will he manage it. I saw some great recoveries, but with more subtle staking plans, I'm quite curious to see if it's possible with this insane one. At least, I think no thread recently received such an attention as this one. -
Re: Singapore S-League 2015 Interrupted due to bad weather... :\
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Re: Singapore S-League 2015 Well, from your approach, it sounds like Tampines are under a bit of pressure, which, accompanied with two losses in a row, is usually not good for self-confidence. After reading your preview this morning, I decided to lay Tampines with a few quid; liquidity at Betfair is awful, gap at the moment was 2.02/2.20, so I placed lay bet at 2.10. Now, I see my bet lags far behind, odds drifted, and current gap is 2.20/2.30, so looks like market thinks the same, Tampines at 2.05 seems a bit short under those circumstances. Of course, that's consideration when looking only at stats, which does not give a full picture; your observation that Tampines may have a bit more of quality is good reasoning, but I hope not today. ;)
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Re: Inplay Statistics Matthew, sorry, but it's a highly commercial site; I cannot find any content free of charge, and subscription ranges from 20 GBP for 14 days to 191 GBP for 6 months, so I don't think we need to advertise them here. If you want to help stho, feel free to send him PM. :ok
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Re: Where's me glory jumper??
I will get confirmation from a Moderator on this' date=' but I feel it will be ok to continue.[/quote'] Of course, it's fine this way - one market counts as one bet, regardless of number of individual bets within that market. :ok -
Re: 10K INVESTMENT IN BFAIR V ISA Majority of his 0-0 lays so far looked dangerous to me, but to be honest, he seems to swim successfully between the sharks so far, so fingers crossed for this one, too! :hope
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Re: Calculation of combination bet 1X2 Result And Over/Under 2.5 ?
Well, to be honest, I didn't analyze the matches, I just tried to find connection between the odds. Though, odds for all markets should relate to each other; for example, odds of Under 2.5 should be the same as combined odds (i.e. sum of probabilities) for correct scores 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2, adjusted for different overround; the same for 1X2, BTTS, and other match markets. So if you assume that odds in Correct Score market are correct, then all other odds are correct, too. I mean, I'm not sure about your question, I don't know the answer... :unsureThat's a really helpful spreadsheet froment :notworthy If we assume the correct score prices are correct, it is saying there is value in Blackburn/Over 2.5 at 11 decimal and Draw/Over 2.5 at 17 decimal in tonights FA Cup game, but you are betting into a 9% overround.Froment' date=' I need to ask you something in private, may I have a direct contact method to you like your email address or else?[/quote'] If it's something betting related, you could use this forum, but no problems, if you want, you may contact me via contact form at my site, the one in my signature; contact link is in top right corner. Don't forget to include your e-mail address if you want reply. :) -
Re: Calculation of combination bet 1X2 Result And Over/Under 2.5 ? Of course they don't derive them from 1x2 and Under/Over odds directly, but from correct scores.
Swansea to win and Under 2.5 goals is nothing else but probability that Swansea will win by 1-0 or 2-0. From the above odds, probability of 1-0 is 12.5%, and 2-0 is 7.7%; cumulative 20.2%, or odds of 4.95, which is very close to 5.00 they quote.
You get the similar results for other combinations; differences arise because overround for correct score market is 122.3% (in fact, even more, as not all the correct scores are included in the list above), while combination 1x2/UnOv2.5 is probably more popular, so overround is 114% (but still huge, as Villamoura suggests), hence somewhat higher odds, except for Everton to win and Under 2.5 goals, where oods are bit shorter than these calculated odds; I guess the logic behind it is that if away team takes a lead, they will defend, hence higher probability of 0-1 or 0-2.
If you want to "play" with other matches, here is Excel that I used for this calc: http://www.betgps.com/excel_files/betting/1x2andUnOv2.5.xlsx (right click and "Save as", .xlsx file, ~110 kB). -
Re: Football Betting - A Philosophical Approach Hello, Aristillus, :welcome to the forum! Nice to see your posts and some fresh ideas, thanks for sharing it! :ok I saw your posts in the Championship thread, nice reading there, but I have the same objection as MPLouis: without odds, your selections lack real sense - the goal is to get money from bookmaker; and you can get it only if they pay at sufficiently high rate. I mean, if I see Man Utd or Chelsea priced at 3.00 (which will probably not happen this season), I will rush to bet; if I see them at about evens, I will gladly take it after having a look at their oponent; if I see them at odds of 1.70, I will think twice and have a deep breath before placing a bet, at very moderate stake; but no way I would bet on them at odds are 1.30. Hence, without odds, your selections are simply incomplete. In your example above, probabilities of 47% / 27% / 26% imply the odds 2.12 / 3.70 / 3.85, or roughly 1.99 / 3.46 / 3.59 after 7% overround; Watford was generally available at 2.50 - 2.60, so it was indeed a good pick; however, it was hardly worth backing at odds lower than 2.20, and absolutely a no-no at evens. The reason is, I highly doubt you can sustain your strike rate of 72% at these odds, let alone to increase it to 80% as you hope; so you cannot afford yourself to back teams at odds lower than they should be according to your calculation.
Despite what some other posters say about it being simply a system that picks the favourite team' date=' the system always weights itself to the team with the better season performance, and when making bets, you want to weight the outcome in your favour. In other words, you want to pick the team that wins, and not simply play a particular bet because it gives you better odds.[/quote'] Well, that's the consequence of using Poisson - 1X2 probabilities reflect probability of expected goals of each team, which reflects their position on league table, which is, in turn, reflected in the odds offered by bookmakers; hence, you like it or not, your system is indeed inclined towards picking favourites. -
Re: my football tips
Maybe we don't read the same issue? :unsureThe way i read the rules is no editing whatsover.
The purpose of this rule is clear: to remove any doubt that poster might be cheating by editing his selections after match started. The rule is not there just for the sake of it, rule because of rule, but to serve its purpose, as I explained. So I fail to see what's wrong with editing any other post, except those that contain selections, as stated above? :unsure Franky, sorry for clogging your thread, I hope we'll stop here; and good luck too! :ok- Absolutely NO EDITING of posts containing selections. -
Re: my football tips
Obviously. But he edited post with results, not with bets. I've checked the post history, and it appears he forgot to update the bank, so he edited the post. I don't see anything wrong there. If you actually read the thread, you would have noticed it.More editing? -
Re: 10K INVESTMENT IN BFAIR V ISA Lay bet means you are betting against the outcome, i.e., if that outcome happens, you lose the bet. There are numerous articles around, just google up, or check my one for more details: www.betgps.com/lay_betting_explained.php
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Re: Team to win 2nd half how does it work ? Of course it is draw.
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Re: Overs No, local bookies in Montenegro, such as sbbet.me and lob.co.me; I don't know for Marathon, maybe they have, too. For example, here are the odds for this round in EPL; odds for 2-3 goals are even higher than I thought, between 1.85 and 2.05.
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Re: 10K INVESTMENT IN BFAIR V ISA I second MPLouis' opinion, this thread has become one of the most interesting threads in Glory Hunters section. I know it's easy to be a general after the battle; but in betting, it is necessary to be the one - when things don't go the way you expected, you need to stop for a moment and check why the things went that way. At least that's how I do. So if you don't mind, I'd share a few comments on your strategy, in line with the post that I made in this thread earlier. Average odds of your first 10 bets were 234, with harmonic mean of 132 (odds from average of probabilities; Excel function HARMEAN), and average liability of 767 units. Bets placed within 4 days. Average odds of bets 41 to 50 were 88, harmonic mean was 25, and average liability 799 units. Bets placed within 5 days. Average odds of bets 81 to 90 were 24.9, harmonic mean was 13.4, and average liability 1048 units. Bets placed within one single day. Average odds of last 10 bets, 92 to 101, were 29.8, harmonic mean was 16.6, and liability 1720 units. Bets again placed within one single day. I see following issues in your approach: 1. Overconfidence. You started laying at very high odds, that are considered as "less risky", they turned out to be successfull, so you started believing you were unbeatable and moved towards riskier bets. In my humble opinion, laying 0-0 in Argentinian or Spanish matches is everything but low risk bet. 2. Terrible money management. Regularly staking between 10 to some 20-30% of your bank on single bets (I think there was one bet with 50% of the bank exposed, cannot find it now) is bookmakers' dream! This is again result of overconfidence; but you need to remember odds are there for a reason. If the event was a dead cert, the odds would be 1.00; but even the "safe" odds of, say, 230, mean there is 1 in 230 chance to lose your bet; if you placed 230 million bets, there would be something around 1 million losers; but at this scale, it's just matter of your skill and luck whether you will hit that loser after 5 bets, or after 500 bets, or you will set your mission to 400 bets and end in profit before hitting that loser - you need to decide how far you want to stretch your luck, and adjust the stakes accordingly. 3. Stubbornness. I think all the losses you had in this thread, as well in your other threads, were 0-0 lays... yet you keep laying 0-0?! Unbelievable! As you consider this as investment, have you done your business plan? Do the paper testing or bet with small stakes on a decent number of matches, they usually say 300 to 500 is proper amount; count all matches you layed 0-0, count wins and losses and calculate strike rate; then calculate average odds after commission and calculate implied probability, 100/average odds. If your strike rate is lower than, or equal to, or just slightly higher than (100-implied probability), then give it up, you stand no chance! If strategy does not work when paper testing or risking 2 EUR, it will not work when risking 2000 EUR, either. Not to mention there are many lay 0-0 threads here on this very forum, and I don't remember any of them reaching that many consecutive wins; somebody correct me if I'm wrong. :unsure 4. Loss chasing. Constantly and significantly increasing your liability without respective growth of the bank is... well, I'll try to be polite, so I'd say again it's bookmakers' dream. I'm not gonna preach about it here, google it up and you'll see loss chasing can have only one outcome: bankruptcy. Now, it's up to you whether you'll learn from mistakes of others, or you'll contribute to that stats yourself. 5. Greed. Instead of 2-3 bets a day at very long odds, now you place a dozen of bets per day, at 10 times lower odds. Things started well, profit from investment quickly grew up way ahead of profit from ISA; but winning 2 or 3 GBP per bet from 2 or 3 bets per day was not really fast pace, so you hurried up to increase it as soon as possible; and today you try to recover your losses as soon as possible, not only by insanely increasing your stakes, but also by placing too many bets - I'd say if a match has the slightest chance to meet your criteria, you place the bet. Like in Murphy's law: "If you have only a hammer, everything resembles the nail". If in the beginning there were only 2 or 3 qualifying matches per day, how it comes there are more than 10 per day now, what has changed? There were no that many new leagues starting in the meantime, so it must be change in your selection criteria; but was that change checked before implementation, to make sure it will improve, not deteriorate, the results? Anyhow, good luck on your way to recovery! :ok You're indeed in possession of keys to your destiny, as not all of us have the privilege to inherit 10 grand and invest it somewhere, but easy start to the game and some 80 wins in a row should not lure you into thinking that you've got what it takes to beat the market that easy. And tell me if you need help to rename the thread - I think "Gambling" has become more proper word than "Investment". ;)
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Re: Overs Well, that's another winner, much needed! :clap Our local bookies here have thge market "2 to 3 goals", and odds are usually around 1.80 mark, rarely lower, but frequently higher, even up to evens; it seems it would be the profitable market for you! :)
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Re: Soccer Half Time / Full Time odds relationship with HT and FT result? I don’t think you can calculate HT/FT odds based on these two datasets. They basically represent two different markets evaluated before kick-off, while HT/FT odds need to consider how the match will develop depending on a half-time result. Paparazzo has just explained it, but let me try to develop it further; in your example, home team was evaluated before kick off to have 54% chance to win half time, and 71% chance to win full time. Though, that chance to win full time largely depends on actual outcome of first half –Paparazzo said that chances of home team to win FT will be 80% if they win half time; however, that may be generally true, while in this specific example, when home team is clear favourite, I’d say that probability is even higher – if they were estimated at 71% before kick-off, it surely must rise to more than 80% if they win half time; I estimate that if home team is priced 1.40, and they lead by 1 goal at half-time, those odds would be around 1.15 - 1.20; if they lead by 2 goals, odds would be somewhere around 1.08, and so on. I will take 87% for this example, which corresponds to odds of 1.15. Hence, probability of HT/FT is not (probability of HT) * (probability of FT) as you calculated, but (probability of HT) * (probability of FT given corresponding outcome of HT) Let me try to do an example; I will use very rough odds estimation, just to show the calculation; that estimation may be well wrong, and is also largely dependent on league, so please check it f you have serious plans with that calculation – when I say to check it, that means, find a match that goes live, with odds similar to ones in this example, and then check FT odds at half time. So, if prematch 1X2 odds were 1.40 / 4.60 / 6.75, and actual HT result is 1, then I’d say odds for full time at that moment would be 1.15 / 7.00 / 20.00, or probabilities 0.87 / 0.14 / 0.05. If actual HT result is draw, full time odds would be 1.80 / 2.70 / 7.50, corresponding probabilities 0.56 / 0.37 / 0.13. Finally, if actual HT result is 2, FT odds would be 3.40 / 3.00 / 2.30, or probabilities 0.29 / 0.33 / 0.44. Now, you can calculate HT/FT odds. 1/1 = 0.54 * 0.87 = 0.47 -> odds 2.13. X/1 = 0.41 * 0.56 = 0.23, odds 4.41. And so on; check this Excel file for other outcomes: www.betgps.com/files/HT-FT-odds.xlsx (right click and “Save asâ€, it’s Excel 2007 file, ~20 kB). I estimated FT odds after HT result at overround of about 106%, which is usual overround, and it gives HT/FT overround of 117.7%, while OR of odds in your example is 118.1%, which is pretty close. If you want to check the odds as I suggested, just edit yellow cells, and HT/FT will be updated. I wanted to check if there is a difference if bookmakers’ odds are first adjusted to no overround, so there is another sheet, which first adjust the odds to 100%, and then calculates HT/FT odds, but there is no big difference; it’s on sheet “Without ORâ€. Though, as Paparazzo said, OR is not evenly distributed between all outcomes, but is usually bigger on underdogs; but to simplify this calculation, I took it as the same for all three outcomes, which probably further adds to inaccuracy. Another possibility to estimate probabilities of FT result after specific HT result is to go empiric way: BetVirus.com (and probably some other sites, as well as my Excel workbook available at www.Betting-Data.com ) will give you actual percentage of all HT/FT outcomes, but they refer to all odds ranges, which will not give brilliant accuracy. So you may want to get yourself historic data available at www.CGMBet.com , which contains HT and FT results and FT odds for some 100.000 matches, filter them for odds range you want (in this example I’d say take range of home odds 1.35 – 1.45), and check frequency (hence, probability) of HT/FT outcomes. You can get the same data from http://www.football-data.co.uk/downloadm.php, too, but they are all in separate workbooks per season and separate sheets per league, while all data from CGMBet are in one single sheet, which makes it a lot easier to do this task.
I have just checked that thread, nice read there; I probably read it before, but forgot, glad to refresh. In post #25, Salford Student suggested the calculation was incorrect, and I think I know why did he say that. If you check post #16, Jenspm calculated C using HT/FT odds; but problem is that you don’t know HT/FT odds – you want to calculate them, so you don’t know them in advance; you know them in this example, because it is what it says – an example; but if you want to use it for real caclulation, you won’t have them in advance. In Excel, it’s called “circular referenceâ€.Quoting user JENSPM The chance of a win is, 1-(A+(B*C)) Where: A = the chance of Marseille winning or grabbing a draw at HT B = the chance of Chelsea winning at HT C = the chance of Chelsea losing the match IF they are winning at HT the correct odds would then be 1/(1-(A+(B*C)))
Thanks for reading! :okI have been reading through www.betgps.com -
Re: 10K INVESTMENT IN BFAIR V ISA If I remember well, cannot bother to check now, he said in the other thread he would not lay 0-0 unless odds are higher than 17. That's disputable strategy - it doesn't mean there won't be 0-0 results, it just means there will be fewer 0-0 results, but when they hit, impact will be similar due to higher liability - but it's a strategy he follows, it seems. :) Personally, it seems to me greed starts taking its toll in this thread - profit is far ahead of ISA profit, it seems like there cannot be a losing match, so stakes increase and risky matches are more frequent; when I say "risky matches", I primarily mean 0-0 lays, some of them at very low odds. Why I think they are more risky than the other lays; when you lay 0-3, there might happen something and you still win your bet, or there might not happen anything - match ends 0-0 - and you still win your bet; there must be a coincidence of events to lose the bet - home team must not score any goal, away team must score exactly 3 goals; so you sit back and wait for the time to pass, hoping there won't be such a coincidence, as you tried to pick the home team that easily scores goals and away team that doesn't have that much power to score 3 goals away. But when you lay 0-0, there must happen something in order to win your bet; if nothing does happen, you lose the bet; and it's difficult to predict when teams will be in such a shape that they cannot score a goal - it happens even the the best teams on planet, and when you least expect it. It can be a nice recreational bet or glory hunt, but, in my opinion, which is similar to Aldric's and Skittle's ones above, it's too risky for serious investment.
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Re: Building My Cheltenham Festival Kitty
Hi, Adam; while we appreciate your decision to show us your bets, aftertiming is a big no-no, especially that you allegedly almost tenfolded your initial stake with only three bets! Hence, you cannot count your first three bets above in your "official" statistics; we are not interest how you got to your current bankroll, but how it will develop in the future. Please start from square one, from bank of 25 units, or 216 units, or one million units, whatever you want, but you must post all bets prior to start time.I will after-time a little at first to tell you where and how I got to my current bankroll. -
Re: Over 1.5 Goals.....
Depends on what do you want to beat. So far you've had 7 winners and 1 loser (if I counted well), so if you bet at level stakes, you'd have a slight profit, but it's profit, not loss. Of course, it's impossible to evaluate the sistem after 8 matches, but if you can maintain strike rate close to that level, your system looks viable and bookie seems beatable. Then, remains the other part: you need to beat yourself in choosing the proper stake management: some 20 winning matches in a row, required to get from 40 to 400 as you intend, is just too much to expect at odds of 1.17 or so... Hope you get my point: your betting system does not seem bad to me and you should not abandon it, but poor staking system will ruin it, and I'd try first to change it! Can you do a backtesting of your system, where do you pull the data from? www.football-data.co.uk and www.CGMBet.com both have good results databases in Excel that are relatively easy to handle to do the backtesting, if your criteria are based on results within the season (not on H2H from previous seasons), so you should check how would your system have performed in previous seasons at level stakes - if it doesn't work at level stakes, then you indeed can forget it. They say that systems based purely on stats do not work, and I think they are right, as I am "stats-minded punter" myself; but there is always something more than stats, specific for each match - weather, pitch condition, fitness, motivation, referee, etc..., but anyway if you have a system, you should check whether it doesn't work because it's bad, or because of money management, or works only for specific leagues. There are interesting Over 1.5 predictions based on stats, I checked from your previous posts whether your selections were the same as theirs, you might want to have a look at www.betsaint.com/match-analyser.asp?id=o1p5&Sort=dt&play=high or www.betsaint.com/soccer-league-sequence-stat-and-statistic.asp?sort=o1.5 or www.betsaint.com/trend.asp?Status=last&play=O1p5GIts all just unbeatable. Sigh. -
Re: Grex's HOMES; 492 selections; +6.6% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2503119][FONT=comic sans ms]Don't worry, Froment..... you made the recommendation in good faith. It's me that seems to have a kiss-of-death on image hosting sites. I have back-up copies of the images and will try to re-post them when I have time. [/QUOTE] Phew, they're back online; probably had server issues or whatever... Anyway, your old screenshots, on previous pages, are now visible again, and I'm glad you found this new service, hope it will endure longer that these previous ones! :) Congratulations on your 500th pick, now that's an achievement! :clap
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Re: Grex's HOMES; 492 selections; +6.6% yield
Phew, they're back online; probably had server issues or whatever... Anyway, your old screenshots, on previous pages, are now visible again, and I'm glad you found this new service, hope it will endure longer that these previous ones! :) Congratulations on your 500th pick, now that's an achievement! :clapDon't worry, Froment..... you made the recommendation in good faith. It's me that seems to have a kiss-of-death on image hosting sites. I have back-up copies of the images and will try to re-post them when I have time. -
Re: acc 1.5-1.75 Moved into Glory Hunters, so no need for system explanation, as it seems there is no one. :ok
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Top stuff, Giraldi, as always, thanks! :ok Your software has been steadily growing in last couple of years, and in my opinion, currently it's the best one out there when it comes to betting stats!
Well, if you don't mind, I'll fire one. Unfortunatelly, I am not at computer where CGMBet is installed at the moment, so I cannot check the alerts myself, but from the screenshot above, I would say alerts filter consecutive events, i.e., in screenshot above, no draw in 10 consecutive matches. However, I think it would be more handy if a user can choose maximum, exact or minimum number of events within chosen number of matches, instead of consecutive number of events. I mean, like this:I am open to suggestionsObviosuly, numbers 2 and 5 in above screenshots are editable, i.e., user changes those numbers as he needs. If you implement it, I can bin my Excels that I use for these filters. :lol It would especially come nice for summer leagues, as football-data.co.uk, my main source of data, does not cover summer leagues. BTW, do we need to reinstall software to get this feature, or only to update?
Long term profits selections.
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: Long term profits selections. Hi, ldtips, :welcome to the forum, and good luck with your bets! :)
No, there's no such a rule, you're free to post whenever you want, given you post your bet before kick-off - aftereventing is strongly discouraged. You should not edit your posts that contain bets, for the same reason, to avoid any suspicion on aftereventing. You are also expected to provide stakes and odds, and update your profit/loss figure; everything else is up to you! :ok