froment
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Posts posted by froment
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To be honest, I don't like the changes either - if it was for me, it would be still running vBulletin 3, the one that was actual when I joined the forum... but www constantly shifts forward, things simply have to change, support and updates for obsolete versions stops and if you don't upgrade, you become vulnerable to attacks, so it's not really a choice, but matter of survival. So I'd add another detail to your comparison: it's like you have old and worn out Aston Martin, bearing almost one milion at its odometer, and you're never sure will you reach a destination or get stuck in the midst of the trip looking for an expensive repair. Instead, you're given a brand new, reliable car of the same make, not Corsa, and all you beed is time to get used to a new dashboard. ;) I think Paul was right not to upgrade to vBulletin 5 immediatelly; it's now 5.1.7, I think, so probably a majority of bugs have been fixed, so I believe we will be all fine soon! :okIm my own words its like.................The old system was an Aston Martin, but you have traded it in for a Corsa. -
OK, a few suggestions from me, although I guess you might be working on it. 1. Enrich the top menu, as it used to be – add other categories that are missing at the moment, and add submenu when hovering main menu; e.g., when hovering “Football bettingâ€, provide links for all football subforums, etc., something like this:
2. Avatars have white border, so if dimensions of current avatar don’t fit, the grey space remains below or around avatar which doesn’t look nice.
3. Indicate in which subforum a certain thread is posted, as it used to be earlier:
4. Letters in user title, e.g., “Newbie punter†below the avatar and “Join date 23 Jun 2005, Posts 2563†below the name are too big for my liking, or too “ordinary†– they shouldn’t be bigger than the size of the letters in the post itself, should they? That’s quite subjective preference, but I’d prefer them smaller and in different font, while username should be bigger.
- McNasara and Mindfulness
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Are you accessing from mobile or tablet? If so, "Inbox", "Sent items", etc. might be at the bottom of the page, check there. Otherwise, it works fine for me - it's on the left side of the screen, as it used to be before.I've clicked on everything but to no avail. No Inbox or Sent option { anywhere ] as it used to be. -
Managed to find "new posts" the way they worked before - list of threads that received new posts since last visit. Copy this link (or save it as bookmark, as I did):
https://forum.punterslounge.com/search?searchJSON={"date":"lastVisit","view":"topic","unread_only":1,"sort":{"replies":"desc"},"exclude_type":["vBForum_PrivateMessage"]}I can't make clickable link here within the post, so I put one on this page: www.betgps.com/links Edit - there seems to be an issue with sorting of the posts by the last posted time, no option provided in the drop-down menu seem to properly sort the posts...
- robotzel78 and Sir Puntalot
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Yes, I also desperatelly miss that button, especially that it could be tweaked so to display posts from certain forums only, so it was easy to exclude horses and poker, for example. Though, the link you mention works fine for me; it is this one: https://forum.punterslounge.com/#activity-stream-tab But still, I'd prefer a button that works as the old one. In case anyone needs multiquote option, the one that enables you to quote more than one post in a single reply, I finally managed to crack it (that's why I made two consecutive posts above, I couldn't find multiquote button, phew) - there's no that button at all! You press "Quote" button once, in any post you want to quote, and that post appears quoted in reply box; then you go to another post you want to quote, and press "Quote" button again; it will turn orange, and button in the floating bar at the top left of the page will turn to "Post reply (2)", which means 2 posts have been quoted. You repeat the process if you want to include more posts, and when you've done, press that button on the top left, and all posts will be quoted within reply. I still haven't figured out, though, how does the comment option works, as seen in some posts above, where there is a comment within the post?! :unsure I'm not sure if it's useful feature, when there are only posts, you can go to the last read post; but this way you have to go from the beginning each time, to check if there are comments in the old posts. Or it I missunderstood the way it works...My first impression is it's neater and probably easier to read for new users. Useability is my problem. There used to be a simple tab for 'New Posts' at the top of the page. I can't find that now - can anyone help? I mean 'new posts' for the whole forum. Maybe it's the 'NEW POSTS' tab here ... https://forum.punterslounge.com/ When I select that, I either get an error message, or I get a random list of posts. I'd like to see all new posts, as before ;) -
Could we get the 'thanks' option back? Its a good feature' date='[/quote'] I agree; but it has become option "Like", in the right bottom corner of the post. :ok
- MPLouis, immortal-- and harry_rag
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I have not checked the new layout on mobile yet, but I think right sidebar in portrait mode is shown below posts, not on the right side; so scroll down to the bottom of the posts, and check if the "sidebar' is there. That's the feature of responsive design - once the screen becomes too tight to display elements next to each other, it moves them one below the other.FYI just viewing the site on someone's Hudl tablet and it only shows the right hand content when the screen is held 'landscape'. In 'portrait' orientation it briefly tries to display it but then shows posts only across the whole width of the screen. -
Re: Lets explain Dixon and Coles I also cannot contribute much, but I'd like to recommend paper "Assessing the number of goals in soccer matches", a Master’s Thesis by Rasmus B. Olesen made at Aalborg University in the Machine Intelligence department; available, for example, here: http://projekter.aau.dk/projekter/files/14466581/AssessingTheNumberOfGoalsInSoccerMatches.pdf He used 4 prediction methods aiming to
Hence, his investigation covers only number of goals, not actual outcome of the match, but it's worth reading anyway; his conclusions:The goal of this project is to, in a number of different approaches investigate the correlation between a soccer teams history results and the probability distribution for the number of goals in a given soccer match
I might be wrong, but, being a long-term fan of systems that rely on statistics, I believe that statistics solely cannot yield profitable results, other factors must be taken into consideration as well.the test an evaluation has shown, that the Dixon-Coles model is not as well suited for predicting the number of goals as it is at predicting the actual outcome. The over-estimation of the probability of low-scoring games, caused the model to show the worst prediction scores of the four assessors. .... It can therefore not be concluded that any of the assessors proposed was better than the bookmaker, nor can it be said that they in general are significantly worse. -
Re: Long term profits selections.
Welcome back, ldtips! ;) Newcastle managed to escape relegation, eh? Not a good run with long term bets, phew...He only wrote he bets against black managers. He did not say to gas them . You must have problems with yourself. If sategy is profitable whats th problem. Is ther e a duty to bet heavily on a team managed by black manager otherwise it s racist? -
Re: Long term profits selections.
Well, I'm still in two minds; in the beginning, I thought the bank would not last for a week. Now, I wouldn't write him off just like that. One third of his reasoning, if not more, is just BS, another one third is essentially flawed, such as blindly chasing loss of Barca or Slovenian favourites or in all matches in English Premier and Spanish Primera the other day. But the last third shows that he knows how to think out of the box, going against the crowd, which is not necessarily guarantee of profit, but is a good base. There is a couple of good examples: Chelsea match the other day, it was picked in another thread here by MPLouis; at first sight, everyone thinks "Hey, that's Chelsea, no way they're gonna lose against WBA", but they had already secured the title, so there's not much to play for; then two matches in Europa League last week, Dnipro and Sevilla; although he was not necessarily right with his reasoning, he spotted pretty well that odds were off mark for Dnipro due to "big name effect", and for Sevilla due to their win in first match, so it was assumed Firoentina would attack and dominate; then pick 122, Lillestrom, I remember I considered that match myself - stats solely suggested there was no reason Lillestrom to be priced that high, but I thought there was something else that I didn't know. And so on, probably more examples could be found. I see his tennis pick today was also a close call: Ljucic-Baroni won first set, and then lost both second and third set in tie break! Yesterday pick on Galatasaray was also a good shout and close one. Now, it's still too early to say whether they were a glimpse of luck or indeed result of his skill, this is still not "long run", so let's give him a chance to prove us wrong... But either way, whether it was luck or skill, his attitude and comments are mainly hilarious, but I suspect this thread would not have this many vistors without those comments and his "analyses"... :lolI'm amazed they are still showing a profit but I guess as they keep telling us it's about the long term not the short term and I'm confident that 300 bankroll will be wiped out soon. -
Re: Long term profits selections.
I can't quite believe Idtips has at least 21 different betting accounts' date=' so it could possibly another Monopoly job.[/quote'] Sorry, but from my point of view, I have to disagree with you - as a complete recreational bettor, I have accounts with a dozen of bookmakers and 5 exchanges (albeit with Betdaq and WBX being closed, but I used them in the past), although I actively use only 3 or 4 of all those. So it's quite believable that full time bettor has the accounts with 50+ books, with many of them limited. Though, the Monopolly money claim is valid, I also suspect the same. So LD tips, maybe you want to show us some screenshots of your bets? Select several winning and losing bets from your records, preferably some longshots, and show us here, so to clear any suspicion whether you're really placing your bets or just play with paper money, in which case I can understand overbetting, overstaking, loss chasing, overconfidence, and whatever else you've shown so far... I said "bets from your records", not future bets, to place them now and show us, but bets that have been already settled. -
Re: Long term profits selections. Micky, I'm afraid you have a problem with your first table, the leftmost one: I don't know if you typed the figures yourself or copied from his posts, but you used both coma and dot as decimal separator, and Excel does not recognize them both, but only one of them, depending on your keyboard settings. In your case, all profits with coma were ignored, so actual sum is not -502, as written in your post, but +179.6. That affected winning bets table, too. For the same reason, total of third table, the rightmost one, is not 612, but 1293.6. This means bank is 479.6, while he has figure of 468.6, so it's fine; discrepancy probably arised due to his slappy records, I noticed that he often rounds profit and sums up or down, or maybe he forgot to include a winning bet, who knows, he has no time to keep tidy records as he needs to listen to Vegas... :lol As for political bets, that's very good question, thanks! I had the intention to ask him the same question once Newcastle is settled, as it's still pending bet; at the moment, it's not -93.1, as you quote, but -103.1, he has it somewhere, I cannot bother to search now, as he had losing outright bet for ATP Roma, if I remember well, and he updated it somewhere. Though, he clearly stated that all political bets would be from the same bank, so there's no need to record it separately... except if he believes his separate records will subtly make us forget it... ;) Edit - I see Myfeather... has found it in the meantime, too, so I'm glad it was clarified!
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Re: Long term profits selections. Latest news: More than 50 people were arrested in Italy on Tuesday and more than 70 placed under investigation as part of a widespread match-fixing inquiry. The sweep allegedly involves “dozens†of fixed matches in Italian football’s third and fourth division, police said. www.theguardian.com/football/2015/may/19/match-fixing-arrests-mafia-italy How it comes you didn't have any info from your insiders, eh? That many suspicious matches without informing you, how dare they! Did Vegas know? :)
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Re: Long term profits selections.
:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin Was it Berahino himself who handed you that secret information? Consider whatewcer you want, but betting on every single underdog in a league can hardly be considered as a strategy, as you said yourself, eventually it would occur.So insider pick worked ;)
Of course I will, don't worry, this thread has become my favourite one, and some of your posts are even funnier than my favourite so far, and you appear to have similar reasoning:Stay tuned :)Other than these, strange unders, misses, game quality, huge differences in form between games. Everybody everywhere are having the worst betting streaks ever ?! Are these things making sense ? NO ! With the start of the second round of the groups stage, things should have enter into normality but now there are as many surprises if not more. I think that starting from today we should stop thinking about the rationality of the game and rather think what would bookies prefer the game to be like ? Either bookies control the games, either it is purely chance, one thing is obvious, that bookies make a lot of money and many games go in their favor. There is no reason to think that this will stop any time soon so just analyzing the game from the point of view of the bookies benefits, we might just make sense of this World Cup. I am not saying that bookies are arranging the games, just that the games seem to go in their favor many times and we should take their benefits into account when analyzing a game. When things do not make sense, humanity turns to the belief in a God, a supranatural beeing. Maybe there is a new bookie God that wants to make a name for himself. I prayed to Jesus and nothing happened. Maybe the bookies prayed to the Bookie God and he actually makes their dreams come true. So we should anticipate what are the wishes of the bookies to the Bookie God. Taking the England - Algeria game as an example, I think that the bookies want England to qualify from the group stage because many English people bet and it would be in their interest to have England play a few more games after the groups. I don't think that they would want to risk England's qualification in the last game with Slovenia so I think that they would prefer an England win tonight. I have seen that many people are betting on England to win by more than one goal difference. I wouldn't count too much on that because in the bookies interests a one goal difference will be better. If any of you took into account the bad form of the English goalkeeper and bet on England conceiving a goal then I am sorry to say that you have lost already. England will not conceive a goal tonight. Again, I know this because I thought of what would the bookies ask of the Bookie God. If I am so sure, I might as well start betting all of my World Cup funds, what is left anyway, and start thinking what I will do with the money when I win. What can go wrong when you have the Bookie God on your side ? Apparently nothing. The Picks: England to win. England not to conceive a goal. -
Re: Long term profits selections. :rollin :rollin :rollin Some guys who work in local betting shops here told me that Sunday evening usually pays off all previous losses they possibly had that weekend - loss chasers just keep coming and throwing their money away in an attempt to recover from losing Saturday and/or Sunday. You are no exception, I'd say, you just picked up all the underdogs on the schedule... :clap
77. -10 Barcelona shot - I will hunt on Barcelona loss' date= So basically, there's no system behind, at least some of, your selections, just blind chasing? Keep betting on random longshots, as they are "due to happen", sooner or later? :rollin -
Re: Long term profits selections.
:loon121. Asane - Follo away win 4,50 122. Lillestrom - Molde home win 5,75 bet365 123. Haugesund - Viking away win 2,80 Coral I like to strike this joke bookie! -
Re: Long term profits selections.
Any questions now? :clap
Oh, boy, I can imagine your joy, and already see the exhilaration we will receive after this chinese pick won! :D Though, on the contrary, I don't see it as a kick in teeth; just as several picks that you lost earlier raised doubts about your skill, these two wins give wind to your sails, but it's still long way to conclusion; I'll tell you why. Mjondalen won at odds of 8, but it varied between bookmakers, so let’s say it belongs to type of matches where underdog is priced between 6 and 10. I went quickly through your picks, and I found 4 winning picks at those odds out of some 15 picks, if I counted well (including this chinese pick today, and assuming your numbering was correct, of course I didn’t check the results myself). Odds of 6 means that bookmaker estimates probability of an event to occur at 16.7%, while odds of 10 imply probability of 10%. So, average probability, as estimated by bookmakers, of events priced in this odds range is 13.3%, i.e., underdogs are expected to win 13.3% of matches in the long run. I took dataset available at football-data.co.uk for season 2014/2015 so far, and checked matches where underdog at Bet365 was priced between 6 and 10, in top 4 tiers in England, top 2 tiers in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Scotland, and top tier in Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Greece and Turkey. And you guess what? Underdogs won exactly 13.3% of those matches.I think very big kick in teeth to all the doubters today but I guess it will be no congratulations for a day what has been. No worries I know this is current world works.
That was a pure coincidence, to match the figure at decimal place, so I went two seasons back, and results are quite similar:
As you can see, results over range of 20.000 matches show that bookmakers’ estimation in this odds range perfectly aligns with actual results.
Now, you see that actual strike rate between leagues varies from 5 to 30%, with outliers on both sides, due to small sample size per league; hence, it’s difficult to say if your current strike rate of 26% in this odds range is result of your skills or just luck, and Mjondalen case still proves nothing! It just proves that you brag about each win and stay silent about losses, and you might remember that it was my main reason to argue with you in this thread. :) When you get to a figure of, say, 1000 matches at odds between 6 and 10, and you keep your strike rate above these 13-14%, then you can indeed say there’s something more than luck.
The same applies to any other odds range, just go and check yourself.
OK, I agree, makes sense, and I stand corrected; although motivation is also disputable factor - what if Tottenham fields reserves who are eager to prove their skills, or players give their best just because they have nothing to play for, so there’s no pressure on them, while Hull have their legs made of lead, as they know the match is do or die? I believe that’s already incorporated in the odds: I see Hull is priced about 4.50 in this match, but in the mid season would have been, say, 6 or so; so the question is are they still worth backing at 4.50? Still waiting for your update on political bets, though?! :)Hull - Burnley game was both teams fight like dogs. Burnley did not know they will go down even if they win in that moment. Tottenham - Hull game is only one side motivated = Tottenham is on holiday for ages if you see their result
Good luck! :okReally put a lot of effort into finding successful big odds pick and warned today could be the beginning of a long way up as reason (work in last week) for distraction is over and believe me discussing in general result brilliant odds opportunity can be missed.I do not make personal remarks I expect the same. I am the host here on this thread and I should have more influence on how it looks as some discussion does not really help but I appeal discussion about specific picks or no discussion. We are adult' date=' you will not change my opinion, I will not change your, respect and continue.[/quote'] Well, I don't agree, sorry; you opened a thread in a public forum and sought the attention, so anyone has the right to comment. While my posts indeed were not quite polite, they were not abusive, either, so I don't see the issue; if you don't like them, well… respect and continue. ;) -
Re: Long term profits selections.
The answer is you can not show me your examples as what you say is right at the first sight' date=' someone still after month, years, finish in minus miraculously.[/quote'] Of course I cannot, I'm not anywhere near as good as you are! :) But I also have never bragged about my betting performance, so I have nothing to prove. To be honest, it's difficult to remember anyone who bragged as bombastic as you... :lol Hope we'll get bank update after you get back from Walsall?! :) I have another question now, although I doubt you'll answer, just like with my previous questions. You stated yesterday that "you must take longshots to win in long term", the statement I challenged. But majority of your picks after that were so-called "banker bets", like Zalgiris at 1.36, or odds of 1.25 and 1.22 in accas, lol. And you earned some profit yesterday just because of those bets, as your longshots miserably failed again. Your only NBA win yesterday was also at odds-on. So what did happen, why did you suddenly change your mind and settled down for shots that cannot provide long term profit? -
Re: Long term profits selections.
Haha' date=' I'm glad Idtips has so many people on their case for writing so much nonsense. I agree, an updated bankroll is long overdue. Idtips was very quick to tell us the bankroll when things were going well after all. I'm sure they will find some way to wriggle out of it given that they have stopped numbering the bets in the original format they will probably claim only numbered bets count towards the bankroll.[/quote'] Well, to be honest, I believe my posts in these thread were not not very polite, and I very rarely criticize performance of other punters – no gambler is safe from losing. Though, I was irritated by his sentence in his very first post, „This will be one of the most successful threads here“, and his attitude, he acted like we are all children and betting-ignorant here, and only waited for him to show us how to bet, so I decided I would give him a run for his money! :) As you say, he was very quick to update any progress of the bank, so why cannot be quick to update the bank when it plumets – how can you place bets today, when we don't have a clue if you have any money in the bank at all?! Except, as Skittle would say, in case it is Monopolly money... :lol Yes, I also thought he would try to avoid these losing bets, to say „you see, they were not numbered, so they don't count, but he promised: so let's see if he will keep up to his word! -
So the match with Burnley was crucial, too, yet they managed to screw it up. Oh, yes, I forgot, sorry - they are probably not in friendly relationships, bookies set up another trap, and match took place in Saturday, so they lost. :sad Anyhow, I came here as I'm quite curious to see your update of the bank after elections and yesterday's picks, when can we expect it? I can't wait to see how goes this "one of the most successfull threads here"! :)Especially game Tottenham-Hull is crucial. Hull knows it. The same case - do or die for HullAnd ONE OF MY MOST IMPORTANT SENTENCES. NOTHING HAPPENS TWICE. Aston Villa last week at home against unmotivated oppolent and they won' date=' thank you I was on their side. Now the same case: Aston Villa at home against unmotivated opponen, everyone's logic is obvious home win. I fell int trap of such thinking and lost spectacularly this is potential trap.[/quote'] And I'll tell you the secret: don't forget to oppose Aston Villa next time they play "at home against unmotivated opponen" - NOTHING HAPPENS THREE TIMES IN A ROW! :p In my opinion, the only difference between Martingale and your system in last several days is that you don't increase the stakes (although it may be a matter of time, too, given your stake of 20/10 on one of the earlier bets, the one with Cameron, I think) - logic is absolutely the same, you bet on something not because of analysis, but because you believe the luck will turn around, and event that is considered as unlikely by both bookmakers and general betting public will occur... :rollin -
Re: Long term profits selections.
Well, I remember that I didn't see Bayern anywhere in your bets, and indeed, bet 66 says Real, not Bayern; you had another similar mistake, you also mixed Vallecano for Villareal; I wonder whether it can happen to a serious bettor? Is it only a typing mistake, or your mind was indeed in quite different match?Pick 66. I was on Bayern with Barcelona
As a consequence, odds on Villa seriously dropped; but even if Villa wins, bookies will recover it the other day, maybe as soon as tomorrow, don't worry.If Villa wins today bookies will have to make a hugepayout to customers lol aso I wiill have a glee. -
Re: Long term profits selections.
So many stupid picks' date=' just came back see Bayern clearly beaten, huge defeat for me abut long term I'll be fine.[/quote'] What pick with Bayern? :unsure -
Re: Long term profits selections.
I'd appreciate if you can tell me what exactly parts of my post were not true?I am afraid you try to insinuate something is not true.
In one of the competitions here on the forum, one of the rules is that odds govern the selection - if player quotes the odds and forget to mention the selection, pick is valid, as it can be verified via odds. That's why I told you in my previous post to feel free and add Viking to your tally. Though, you seem to prefer to play a role of gentleman, as you said in post #26, and lament over that pick every now and then? Either include it in your records, either forget it, as simple as that.This would be over 420 units if I ws not lame and put Viking win in the correct place.I personally think he is doing no wrong . Live and let live. High horse and all that!!!
I fully agree, I also think he should continue, he's welcome to do so, but without bs about fixed matched - as I explained, this is not proper address for those allegations. Second part of my post was discussion, or criticizm, if you want - he started a strategy on a public forum, with very self-confident intro: "This will be one of the most successful threads here", so he should be prepared to attract comments - positive as well as negative. As you may have concluded from my previous post, I don't believe this can be long-term profitable approach, despite his very good start, so I seriously questioned it; if he doesn't want to discuss, OK, it's his choice, I see no problems there.I also think you should continue here Idtips. -
Re: Long term profits selections. Why didn't you apply for a job at UEFA, FIFA, or so? With so many proofs and doubts about fixed matches, I'm sure they would gladly employ you as main prosecutor! I'm serious, I'm not joking. Out of 47 picks you posted, I counted 7 matches where you mentioned fixing, corruption, "something smelly", etc. We post picks here on this forum in good faith that match will be fair event. If you have any proofs or reasonable doubts that event has been compromised, please contact immediatelly the regulatory body, they will be happy to hear from you. Next time you mention fixed matches here, though, you will be banned and this thread removed. I'd also like to let know those who might get lured by his bombastic promises and allegedly high profits made by live bets off the forum, why this guy actually started posting here; he used to run the same bs out there at bettingadvice forum, and he got banned, I see his last post there was on 27. April, and then, next day he came here to continue his, I'd say attention seeking, story on winning. D@du18, I see you're active on BA forum, so if you want, you may find him under nickname "Davvidex". In one of his posts there, he picked an underdog in Argentinian match; when they lost, he immediatelly picked the underdog in very next Argentinian match; his reasoning was "No way both 100 % favourites will win in Argentina so if Boca Juniors will win no distraction picks anymore in this thread I mean odd over 3 anymore". I questioned such an approach - he didn't pick the underdog because of analysis, but because the previous underdog lost, so he picked the next one, it was "due to win". Unfortunatelly, they closed that thread before you had chance to reply to my question, so maybe you want to reply now - why Estudiantes was more likely to win after Racing Club won the other match that took place immediatelly before that? In one of your posts here you said:
This is again the same approach, a scholar example of Gambler's Fallacy - you believe that outcome of previous 20 bets affects the outcome of your next bet?! That's complete nonsense! Each bet is independent event, and its outcome depends only upon your skill, knowledge, analysis, available info, etc., and of course, Lady Luck during the match, and in no way it depends on outcome of bets on your previous day. Of course there are winning and losing runs, but they don't occur because "destination" (which actually should have been "destiny", I guess) decided "OK, ldtips has had too many winners recently, let's send some losers now, and froment has been losing too much, let's give him few winners today!", but because of the other factors, that include ones I mentioned in previous sentence, and discipline amongst the other most important ones.Today it will be a challenge because after such a profitable day worse day should come today or tomorrow but I will try to trick destination30. I will be gentlemen no bet despite odds indicate quite obviously who I picked' date=' my loss[/quote'] Well, as you said, it was quite obvious whom did you pick, so if you want tou may count that bet towards your balance.
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