froment
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Posts posted by froment
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Back in the day, there was a site WhatIfOdds, which did exactly what you described; it had boxes for each minute of the match, and shown change of odds throughout the match; you tick the minute box when a goal is scored, and it gives you updated odds after that goal. Beautiful site, that unfortunatelly went down, and I have not seen anything similar ever since.
In absence of the app, the best solution I can think about is to monitor "adjacent" market; let me explain it for goal lines, it is easier.
Let's say result is 0-0, and odds are as follows:
- Over 0.5 goals 1.10
- Over 1.5 goals 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals 1.90
- Over 3.5 goals 2.90
If a goal is scored at that moment, all odds will be "shifted" to the next line, i.e:
- Over 0.5 goals closed
- Over 1.5 goals 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals 1.40
- Over 3.5 goals 1.90
- Over 4.5 goals 2.90
Of course, not exactly the same odds, but add or take a couple of ticks, that would be it. The same applies to Unders.
For match result, Home/Draw/Away, you monitor European Handicap line (3-way handicap). Let's say:
1X2 market
- Home win 1.80
- Draw 3.60
- Away win 4.50
European handicap market, home team -1
- Home win 3.00
- Draw 3.80
- Away win 2.10
European handicap market, home team +1
- Home win 1.25
- Draw 6.00
- Away win 10.00
Now, if home team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become
- Home win 1.25
- Draw 6.00
- Away win 10.00
If away team scores a goal, 1x2 odds will become
- Home win 3.00
- Draw 3.80 (you see these odds barely changed compared to before goal, they can be even lower - if you ever traded Lay The Draw strategy, you are certainly familiar with "underdog scores first" bomb, duh...)
- Away win 2.10
For next goal, you observe EH+2 or EH-2 markets, and so on... Similar for AH markets.
The site I mentioned above, WhatIfOdds, also had ability to include red card impact; I'm not sure how you could evaluate change of odds after red card; certainly not this way.
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On 3/22/2021 at 6:33 PM, harry_rag said:
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.
From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.
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When you say "preview", what do you mean, textual description and prediction, or statistics? For the former, PuntersLounge still has very good write up for a fair number of football matches, and other sports, too, especially tennis.
Personally, I don't pay too much attention to them, as I am also statistics junkie. I used various sites over the time, the favourite one TipsterArea.com, and then there are other good ones, such as BTFStats.com, SoccerWay.com (it also has textual preview), FootStats.co.uk, FootCharts.co.uk, SofaScore.com...
However, I also like to have raw data on my disposal, and then I do my manipulation with them. My favourite sources are Football-Data.co.uk and CGMBet.com; the later one is an incredible tool, I guess you are aware of its own successfull thread here:
I publish some of the tools I use on my site, BetGPS.com. I also like the spreadsheets available at OddsPredictor.org.uk, they have very interesting stats.
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12 hours ago, Skittle said:
I didn't have the spare time to read and digest it all. Rather you than me mate. ?
Actually, I made a mistake - 3 out of 12 is indeed 220, not 180 as I said, it was 3 out of 10... ?
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Neither do I... ?
I mean, it is some kind of "shortened system" - as he says above, instead of wagering total of 84 and 220 trebles, one wagers 21 and 32 trebles, thus significantly saving on stakes, with guaranteed winners IF you win one match from each group. Though, a little bit of elaboration would have helped.
Also, I don't ger where 220 trebles for second system comes from - 3 out of 12 makes 180 combinations, not 220?
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Any intention to explain what is it?
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On 7/1/2020 at 5:39 PM, benfikista said:
So, I have developed a lay system whose accuracy rate is around 65%. Now the lay odds are, on average, 2.92
Hi, Benfika guy, nice to see you decided to post!
As for your question, I'm a bit late for the show, but I see it's not busy, so let me try anyway. At lay odds of 2.92, and asuming commission of 5%, you need strike rate, or accuracy as you call it, of 66.9% to break even.
Hence, if you get only 65% of your picks correct, it's a losing system, and I believe that no staking system in the world can turn a losing system into a winning one. That is, not counting so-called Parrondo paradox, but I doubt your strategy relies onto that.
It especially applies to "chasing loses", which your proposed staking system basically is. If you increase stakes after a loss to recoup accumulated losses is a sure way to poor house, please don't do it. If you're not familiar with pitfalls of Martingale staking system, google it, and you will find extensive resources.
My advice is to try to refine your strategy to increase accuracy (or decrease lay odds), and once your accuracy is above break even limit, simple staking systems will do - fixed stake (which would be fixed liability in the case of laying), fixed profit or fixed bank percentage will do its work quite well.
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8 minutes ago, Suproni said:
I would take matches where home and away teams are priced between 2 and 3, and where away team is above on general standings, assuming the home advantage would be canceled in some way.
Hi, Suproni,
to the forum!
Check CGMBet software by @giraldi here:
I believe you can easily extract historical data with these criteria you mentioned, to backtest your system.
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On 6/27/2020 at 11:08 AM, harry_rag said:
First selection, as far as I’m aware, since lockdown began.
Under 6.5 Asian total cards in Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 0.5pt at 1.75 with 365.
Can you tell me, please, how does it come Asian on 6.5 line? I thought Asian always had push option, and there's no push with 6.5 line, it's either won or lost, no push, correct?
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This is the shocking news, I didn't know anyhting about his situation, so sad to hear this... I did not know him personally either, but in times when I was regular here, he was always friendly and supportive guy. Certainly terrible days for his family, hope they will manage through that.
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Hello, Hurco; welcome to the forum!
Your question is not silly; while they say that people are born with natural ability to swim, and then they lose that ability within first weeks of life, I highly doubt we are born with natural knowledge of betting exchanges, so some of us have to ask it sooner or later. I mean, all of us in this forum had such a question.
With your example, there is indeed not difference between exchange and "normal bet platform". However, betting exchnage offers you a possibility to trade your bets: to place the opposite bet before the event ended, so you lock in a profit - or, more usually, in a loss - regardless of final outcomeof the match.
Let's see how; in your example, you laid 0-0 at odds of 4.00 (insanely good odds for laying 0-0, if you ask me) with stake of 10 units, and liability of 30 units.
Odds for 0-0 tend to shorten during the match, untill they reach 1.01 in closing moment. After quarter of an hour of play, you're dissapointed with performance of your team, so you decide to trade out. By that time, odds have shortened to 3.50.
You place the opposite bet now: you back 0-0, with stake of 11.43. So, you're risking 11.43 units to win 28.58 units.
If they manage to find their way to net, you win 10 units from lay bet, and you lose 11.43 units from back bet; net loss 1.43 units. If, however, no goal is scored by the end of the match, you lose 30 units from lay bet, and you win 28.58 units from back bet; again, 1.42 units net loss. So, you were able to trade out when you saw that match does not develop as you expected, and instead of losing 30 units, you lost only 1.24 units.
Let's say that you laid the draw, at odds of 3.00, with stake of 10 units, so liability is 20 units. The goalkeeper has bad day, so there is a goal minutes into the match, and it sends draw odds to 8.00. Now, you back the draw, with stake of 3.75 units, for possible profit of 26.25 units.
If match does not end in draw, you win 10 units from lay bet, and lose 3.75 units from back bet; net profit 6.25 units. If bad keep team manages to claw back to the draw, you lose 20 units from lay bet, and you win 26.25 units from back bet; net profit again 6.25 units. Thus, you were able to lock in profit after first goal, regardless of how the match will develop further.
That example is known as "lay the draw" strategy; once profitable, it is worn out nowadays, and it is not easy to take profit from that.
This works the same way if you first place the back bet - you need subsequently to place lay bet, or you can trade more than once during the same match - place more than one back bet or lay bet at different odds; if back odds are higher than lay odds, you make profit, otherwise, you make loss.
Stakes above are calculated using formula:
Back stake * Back odds = Lay stake * Lay odds
and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.
Now, bookmakers started offering "cash out" option, which is very similar to this trading, as long as your bet still has the ability to win. Once it is losing, of course they won't offer you possibility to decrease your losing stake.
Hope it was understandable... Good luck with your trading!
- axel, Hurco, Sir Puntalot and 1 other
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Hey, @Xtc12, have you found this? The ones at Soccerstats do not seem user-friendly, and Footystats is paid service. I had stats for streak since last draw, but streak since last goalless draw seems interesting, so I decided to add it to my stats (for 12 leagues I follow).
For example:
Here are streaks for England Premier; these stats are in column "N0D", "Not drawn 0-0 ".
Here is the specific match, Liverpool vs Man United in this case, streaks are at very bottom.
And here are general 0-0 stats for entire league - Under 0.5 goals is effectivelly 0-0 draw.
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You can get somewhat better payout by laying at Betfair. At the moment, you can lay Liverpool at 2.30; if you're on 7% commission, you should stake 3,305 £, for liability of 4,297 £.
If Liverpool wins, you win those 7,371, and lose 4,297, net 3,074; and if Liverpool fails to win, you get that stake, 3,305, or again 3,074 after commission.
You can play with the stake, of course, so to make one or other outcome pays more or less, depending on how confident you are about Liverpool winning.
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On 12/11/2019 at 11:29 PM, Rey86 said:
nobody who puts money on betting does it for entertainment
we all do it to make some money
You're right. Though, I referred to one of commandments to betting: bet only with money that you can afford to lose, and I had in mind recreational bettors, not professional ones whose main occupation/source of income is gambling. If I lose money that I planned to go to pub with friends, no big deal, both are entertainment; if I lose money that I planned to pay the bills, that's issue.
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On 12/9/2019 at 1:06 PM, Rey86 said:
it is bad idea to bet based on recent results
Maybe it is bad idea, but it's certainly nice idea, I enjoy crumbling numbers, especially when you have a vast source of statistcis, similar to one created by poster above, Giraldi, check site in his signature to see what is next level statistics. And I think it's valid as long as you see betting as entertainment and not source of living.
As for your article, I can hardly take seriously people who play "football" using hands, and who christened actual football as "soccer". Why not checking native British expert, Joe Buchdachl, he has several amusing books on that topic, and you can find nice and short briefing on stats based betting in his site: https://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf
Finally, PuntersLounge has its own stats based system, ELO Ratings, and @NickP recently proved that it can be successfull, see here:
Overall, I believe you cannot generalize that systems based on stats are good or bad; they are as good or as bad as you can process available statistics and predict when match will follow the trend and when it will deviate.
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On 12/10/2019 at 8:34 PM, dopeness said:
if a match scoreline is 0-1 or 1-0 in halftime the final score is usually under 5.5, same if the halftime score is 0-0 the final score is usually under 4.5
you can go check today games results and see for yourself
Your observation is totally correct, you are absolutely right!
You only need to pay a bit of attention to your words that I emphasized above. If you check, you will see for yourself that odds for under 5.5 if one goal is scored at HT, and under 4.5 if no goals at HT, are barely 1.05 or even less. And if you check this year games, not a dozen of today games, but thousands of this year games, you will find that usually 5 out of 100 such a matches go over 5.5 or over 4.5. So, if you bet 100 units each time, you will win 5 units 95 times, add or take two or three times, and lose 100 units 5 times, add or take two or three times. Now do the math, and you will see where does your system go.
Though, if you are able to select games, not to bet on all today games or all this year games, but to select matches so that you hot over 4.5 or over 5.5 less than (100-100/odds) out of 100 matches, where "odds" are average winning odds you get, after commission, then indeed you have a profitable system. So, all you need is to find such a matches.
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Interesting discussion, but I'm afraid it will never have a definite answer, it is highly subjective matter, everyone has opinion and believes it is right.
1.
This all goes to personal skills on how to estimate the value and calculate your own odds... and bit of luck during the match itself; I remember few matches where one team had like 70% or 80% ball possesion and 20 shots on goal vs 2 shots on goal by their oponent, yet the oponent endured all attacks and materialized one of those two shots to win match 1-0, despite being completely outplayed.
Take as an example West Bromwich tonight; I am surprised to see it at ~2.30; based on table position and recent form, it should be 1.70, max 1.80. I see no major injuries on both sides, but they say that Stoke’s coach Nathan Jones has left the club; it means club is not satisifed with recent results and atmosphere is probably not good; so it brings the price down to 1.60, hence 2.30 is massive value.
However, odds compiler might be niece of that brother-in-law of manager’s wife, and have some insider information that mere mortals do not have, and argue that coach replacement is actually beneficial for players morale, hence they priced it as it is, 2.30.
So is it value or not? I don’t know now; I will not know in about 8 hours, when this match ends, either; I can only know after I placed a hundreds of bets on matches based on the same selection criteria – if I earned a profit after that amount of matches, yes, all my bets were value (and I probably do not care what’s the name for that, let alone to bother with selling those predictions, as some wise businessmen do); but if I lost money, I am not good at spotting a value; I might write nice analyses, present stats and reveal insider info, but if I don’t make long-term profit, there’s no value in my bets.
In other words, I do agree with your statement in last paragraph of point 1. :) Some they say good indication is movement of odds at Pinnacle – if you place a bet at odds which drop subsequently, you spotted value before Pinny; but at the end it has the same black/white outcome, no grey area there –you are making profit or you are making loss.
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Gambler’s falacy, in my opinion, is not applicable to football matches, or any other sport event, at all. It applies to independent events, as you mention, but in terms of football matches, independence means “lack of duration”, so to say. What I mean; white ball and red or black slots are absolutely the same throughout the process of spinning, they do not change from the moment of spinning the wheel untill it stops, probability of each event remains the same for that duration of time, 18/37 for black and red, and 1/37 for the house; you spin the wheel, and you are sure that those probabilities do not change in those dozens of seconds untill it stops. In a football match, however, even if there are two perfectly balanced teams from all aspects (including tiredness impact from previous matches that you mentioned), so we are sure that probability of each outcome is 1/3, each match lasts for almost 100 minutes and it will develop differently throughout that period – a key player can sustain an injury or receive red card after 5 minutes, a sloppy keeper can commit an own goal, an incompetent referee can make a crucial mistake, etc. – a lot of human, unpredictable occurences that send match beyond calculated probabilities.
In your example, if a team has 5 wins, is it worth laying it with Martingale? If that team plays in major, well known leagues, and odds are close to evens, as originally meant for Martingale, then yes, go for it by all means – I am pretty sure no team will ever win 100 consecutive matches in Premier league or La Liga (while I would not be that sure for, say, Ethiopian regional league... or even Serie A, I'm afraid), so that team is bound to fail to win sooner or later, and you’re bound to win those 10 quid at the end, provided that you start with 10 quid, you have bank comparable in size to that of Ronaldo, and you know a bookmaker willing to accept stake of ~10 million quid in case your team goes to another 20 winning streak, let alone if they go to all 100. :)
On a more serious note, it goes back again to available odds – Martingale is originally designed for even odds in each leg; whereas odds for each match fluctuate, hence you have to adjust the stakes each time; it doesn’t affect final outcome, but affects your stake, and thus number of matches you can afford
to bet on before you have to give up, either because of your bank, or because of bookmaker limit. -
@rootsrunner I have checked again, and it works for me again. But then, I uploaded file to OneDrive, and I got similar issue as you did - some weird dates in column A. So I would say this is definitely something about cells formatting, something makes your Excel and Excel at OneDrive to recognize wrong date; I don't know what, I don't use Excel at Onedrive, so I cannot bother to investigate it now.
Though, when I formatted entire column A as number, it worked again, with exception that actual date is wrong - it recognizes "6. October 2019" as "19. October"; it doesn't affect rendering of ELO ratings, so I would say it does the job - just don't pay attention to the date in cell B2.
So, try to format column A in your Excel as number (Home tab - Number - Format Cells), and then copy/paste ratings again, to see if it works.
Alternativelly, you can try this online version:
https://vuko.me/link/Punters-Lounge-ELO-ratings
Click "Edit in browser" button if you want to try it for another date; but I don't know what will happen if several people try to edit it at the same time.
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On 9/29/2019 at 11:15 AM, rootsrunner said:
Hi Froment,
Your workbook is a great tool - unfortunately, it doesn't work for me although I have followed your instructions in respect of copying data into excel.
I work with a German version of Excel 2010. Below you find a screenshot from the input page after copying in the ELO ratings for 29th September 2019.
Column C shows that there is a problem with the data. I have tried to change the format of the respective A lines, e.g. A23, A27 - but without success.
Do have any idea what the problems is?
Hi, rootsrunner; sory for delayed answer, I'm not visiting forum regulary.
Column C in your screenshot is not wrong, it should contain True/False statements, to decide which cell in column A contains the date, which is beginning of new row, and in column G you can see it identified rows properly - new rows of ELO ratings at PuntersLounge start in Excel rows 11, 20, 29 and 38 - the ones that contain date "29 Sep".
Now, why rows 23 and 27 contain this input "Mai 50" and "Jan 67", I have no clue; it might be some regional settings in your Excel, or it might be that rating at PL was some specific value that Excel recognized as number; or it might be something else, I don't know; I cannot replicate it as ratings for 29 September are not available any longer. Hence, I'm afraid I cannot determine what is the issue in your screenshot, cannot help you, sorry.
Below are screenshots of ratings for 5. October from PL and from this Excel - as you can see, it works for me.
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I share scepticism of Harry Rag above, but I'm surprised to see odds in 3 out of 10 matches are above evens, didn't expect it in matches where one team has that clear difference in stats, I don't get it. This might work with additional odds screening, I'd say.
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Hello, Mocas, welcome to the forum, and good luck with exchanges!
Answer to both of your questions is yes, it would work as you explained, Betfair matches your money at best available odds at the moment. I say Betfair, I don't know for other exchanges.
The same applies to the other side - if you place lay bet at odds of 3.80, and odds of 3.76 appear in the meantime, your bet will get matched at better odds, 3.76, in amount of money available at those odds.
- Sir Puntalot and Mocas
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6 hours ago, UBET10 said:
Then as long as its not 0-1 or 1-0 you win.
If you believe you have an edge in finding those games, then simply lay correct score 1-0 and 0-1, it's easier.
$5000 to $1Million in 3 years and little over 2000 bets
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
I guess it was deleted by moderators, and probably this one will be deleted, too - it's just plain spam, to promote site listed in your workbook.
Yeah, of course, I also had a couple of winning runs, first I turned $14.72 into $102,380, and then I took $1,256 out of that amount and turned it into $1 Million! I started another hunt, and yesterday I was on ~$250,000!!! I took day off today to check for some stupid posts online and reply; I'll continue tomorrow, and expect to reach $ 1 Million this time next year!
And it was pretty easy - I take a list of past matches, already finished ones; I arrange them in a nice Excel table; then I write outcomes: "Win", "Win", "Win"... ok, then "Lose" here and there, it is impossible to win each match, and voila! here is my first $ 1 Million, in the table!
What I want to say, if you expect us to believe your story, you should have posted all those bets here, before the match, not now.
Had you indeed won 1 Million, I'm sure you wouldn't be spamming forums, you would be working towards next million... My grandma can make millions the way you did.