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** September Nap's Competition Result: 1st Boulder5111, 2nd Craig Bluenose, 3rd Barnsley Chop, 4th Zilzalian KO Cup: Bathtime For Rupert, Most Winners: Waggy**
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FleetFanatic

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  1. Like
    FleetFanatic reacted to friskyfitz in Sir Puntalot - R.I.P   
    Words are really failing me at this moment in time, just a stream of tears.. I just saw this notice minutes ago. I never got to make the meet up and promised to get over in late march or early april, then covid hit.... I never made it...
    R. I. P mate, im breaking out the Jack D for you
  2. Like
    FleetFanatic reacted to BillyHills in Virtual Grand National - ITV Saturday 5pm   
    OMG first 4 in a fashion🤣
  3. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from LeMale in Royal Ascot Tipsters Competition - Day 5 Selections   
    Good luck all, don't think any of these will win, but it's the only way I'll win

    230 As: Ardenlee Star
    305 As: On A Session
    340 As: Mirage Dancer
    420 As: Keystroke
    500 As: Sir Maximilian
    535 As: Paddys Motorbike
  4. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from LeMale in Royal Ascot Tipsters Competition - Day 1 Selections   
    230 As: Mustashry
    305 As: Arizona
    340 As: Blue Point
    420 As: Pheonix of Spain
    500 As: The Grand Visir
    535 As: Latrobe
  5. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Systemight in Punchestown Tipsters - FINAL Leaderboard   
    Congrats to all 3.
  6. Like
    FleetFanatic reacted to Sir Puntalot in Aintree Competition - Final Leaderboard   
    All prizes paid, and new Punters Lounge merchandise on the way to @Saddlesore & @FleetFanatic   
     
  7. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in 2019 Grand National - Tips & Trends   
    Won't tear up the trends, Tiger Roll is quite simply an exception. What a horse.
  8. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from yossa6133 in 2019 Grand National - Tips & Trends   
    Here's an interesting one. If Bristol De Mai doesn't run, then all the weights go up by 4lbs I believe. If that is the case then Tiger Roll would not qualify on my trends calculations. To score 90+ they can only fail one trend & TR would suddenly fail a 2nd one.

    The stats I use are based around this information; since changes were made to the course in 2013
    & are based on the winning horses & all placed horses that were within 10 lengths of the winner.

    Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 17/17
    Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 16/17
    Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 16/17
    Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 16/17
    Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 16/17
    Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 15/17
    Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 15/17
    Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 14/17
    Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 14/17
    Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 13/17

    Although my scoring calculations are based on 2 years ago when it added up to 99, I can't bring myself to calculate a new points threshold when it still worked out last year. A simpler way would be to say that since 2013, 5 of the 6 winners (the last 5) & 8 of the 11 placed horses (those that finished within 10 lengths of winner) have either met, or failed just one of the above trends.
    The exclusions are as follows:
    Winner: AURORAS ENCORE (2013)
    Placed: SAINT ARE (2015 & 2017) and PLEASANT COMPANY (2018)

    Hope this helps understand where the figures have come from. They are still subject to change as I imagine around a quarter of the runners could yet still change.
  9. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from black rabbit in 2019 Grand National - Tips & Trends   
    Well I'm back for my annual trip into at the races on Punters Lounge.

    As you check from last year's thread, the ratings I calculate got 1st, 4th & 5th, the year before it got 6 of the first 7 home, so we have high hopes again.
    So I have started compiling the ratings for this year, as it's just over 2 weeks away.
    Slowing working my way down the Racing Post racecard in numerical order.

    *LIST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR BRISTOL DE MAI WITHDRAWAL/ALL WEIGHTS UP 4LBS*

    ANIBALE FLY 90
    VALTOR 49
    TIGER ROLL    81
    OUTLANDER    56
    DON POLI    83
    GO CONQUER    67
    MALA BEACH    76
    MINELLA ROCCO    83
    LAKE VIEW LAD    74
    PLEASANT COMPANY 92
    BALLYOPTIC    74
    DOUNIKOS    83
    RATHVINDEN    74
    ONE FOR ARTHUR    67
    ROCK THE KASBAH    92
    WARRIORS TALE    90
    REGAL ENCORE    81
    MAGIC OF LIGHT    65
    A TOI PHIL    63
    JURY DUTY    92
    NOBLE ENDEAVOR    81
    MONBEG NOTORIOUS 72
    RAMSES DE TEILLEE 70
    TEA FOR TWO    74
    STEP BACK    92
    ULTRAGOLD    65
    BLOW BY BLOW    63
    UP FOR REVIEW    72
    SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 92
    VIEUX LION ROUGE 99
    VALSEUR LIDO    74
    VINTAGE CLOUDS    83
    GENERAL PRINCIPLE 99
    LIVELOVELAUGH    81
    WALK IN THE MILL 99
    FOLSOM BLUE    72
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD 63
    BLESS THE WINGS    70
    JOE FARRELL 83
    JUST A PAR 63
    Last updated 04/04/19
  10. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Xtc12 in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Right again, winner scoring 99.
  11. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Tipsters Competition - Final Leaderboard   
    Well done, went for glory with Milansbar, should have played safer for 2nd with Tiger Roll.

    Well done all 3 of you.
  12. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    So to clarify I am going to take on these 9 against the field:

    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99
    CHASE THE SPUD    92
    MILANSBAR (IRE)    99
    BLAKLION    83 (60day adj 92)
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83 (60day adj 92)
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)

    Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
    I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
    That might be enough unless there's anything better?
  13. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    I should have just stuck to the 90+ ones.  1st 4th & 5th to follow last year's 1st 2nd 4th & 5th.
  14. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Right again, winner scoring 99.
  15. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in Aintree Tipsters Competition - Final Leaderboard   
    Well done, went for glory with Milansbar, should have played safer for 2nd with Tiger Roll.

    Well done all 3 of you.
  16. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    I should have just stuck to the 90+ ones.  1st 4th & 5th to follow last year's 1st 2nd 4th & 5th.
  17. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Right again, winner scoring 99.
  18. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from WiggoBets in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Right again, winner scoring 99.
  19. Haha
    FleetFanatic reacted to BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Rubbish these trends

  20. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from BillyHills in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    So to clarify I am going to take on these 9 against the field:

    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99
    CHASE THE SPUD    92
    MILANSBAR (IRE)    99
    BLAKLION    83 (60day adj 92)
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83 (60day adj 92)
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)

    Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
    I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
    That might be enough unless there's anything better?
  21. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from Johnrobertson in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    UPDATED LIST:
    removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
    Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
    Teach me to rush the calculations.

    Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.

    MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
    BLAKLION        83    
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
    VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
    TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
    GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
    PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
    CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    WARRIORS TALE        74    
    SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
    GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
    PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
    UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
    SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
    BEEVES (IRE)        81    
    RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
    I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
    VIRGILIO (FR)        74
    BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
    MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
    PENDRA (IRE)        81
    BUYWISE (IRE)        65
    CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
    HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
    LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
    BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
    FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
    DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE

    I will be backing these 6:
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99

    Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
    If so, I will add another 4.
  22. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from WiggoBets in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    UPDATED LIST:
    removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
    Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
    Teach me to rush the calculations.

    Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.

    MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
    BLAKLION        83    
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
    VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
    TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
    GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
    PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
    CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    WARRIORS TALE        74    
    SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
    GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
    PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
    UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
    SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
    BEEVES (IRE)        81    
    RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
    I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
    VIRGILIO (FR)        74
    BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
    MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
    PENDRA (IRE)        81
    BUYWISE (IRE)        65
    CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
    HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
    LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
    BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
    FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
    DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE

    I will be backing these 6:
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99

    Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
    If so, I will add another 4.
  23. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    UPDATED LIST:
    removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
    Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
    Teach me to rush the calculations.

    Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.

    MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
    BLAKLION        83    
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
    VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
    TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
    GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
    PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
    CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    WARRIORS TALE        74    
    SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
    GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
    PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
    UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
    SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
    BEEVES (IRE)        81    
    RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
    I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
    VIRGILIO (FR)        74
    BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
    MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
    PENDRA (IRE)        81
    BUYWISE (IRE)        65
    CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
    HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
    LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
    BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
    FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
    DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE

    I will be backing these 6:
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    CHASE THE SPUD        92
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99

    Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
    If so, I will add another 4.
  24. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    First 40 plus next 7 in the weights.

    In comparing RPR to OR, the OR used for the race weights is used,
    not what the weight is already due to change to.
    MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
    BLAKLION        83    
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
    THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
    VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
    TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
    GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
    PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
    SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
    TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
    CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
    VICENTE (FR)        92    
    TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
    REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
    VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
    CHASE THE SPUD        83
    WARRIORS TALE        74    
    SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
    GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
    THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
    PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
    UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
    SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
    BEEVES (IRE)        81    
    RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
    I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
    VIRGILIO (FR)        74
    BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
    MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
    PENDRA (IRE)        81
    BUYWISE (IRE)        65
    CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
    HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
    LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
    CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
    BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
    MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
    FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
    DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE
    ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)    56
    DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)83
    THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE)    76

    As it stands, either I've done something wrong or this isn't as strong as last year?
  25. Like
    FleetFanatic got a reaction from gbettle in Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018   
    Anyway I am going to start work on this this weekend.
    Will only be going though those aged 8-11 as if you fail that criteria you can only score 88.

    Done the first 10 already!
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