Kozzin Benson
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Posts posted by Kozzin Benson
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Re: Australian Open 2014
I think it depends who gets through to the final If Nadal gets through I think the price will be better If Federer gets through it may be better Personally I would wait until nearer the start time or monitor price from end of second semi final Good call to back Wawrinka early on at 66-1! There may be some other opinions on here from the guys who have been posting a lot during tournamentAdvice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation. -
Re: International Friendlies > November International Friendly Denmark - Sweden Evening all! Has anyone got any team news or info on the above match? No love lost between these two usually. I know friendlies can be a bit of a minefield betting wise. Thinking that this should be fairly competitive because of the previous matches. Just wondered if they were going to field strong starting line ups? Any info much appreciated. Good Luck all! :ok
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 15th December Now its 2-1 Sevilla!! :loon
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 15th December
Dortmund 1 up already!! :loonI'll tell you quite honestly, it's a gamble. As I said above, Dortmund was the better team. They dominated all five encounters, but didn't manage to score against their main rivals Sevilla and PSG. I honestly can't tell if it's a matter of luck, pressure or inexperience. But I don't think it's a question of quality, since they've shot plenty of goals in the league and are close to a record amount of points to the winter break. Considering the previous results, they shouldn't go beyond a draw here. Then again, it's not normal for them to dominate three games and shoot one lousy goal (a pg at that). Perhaps it's plain obvious, but if they start shooting goals, they can win. Sevilla otoh must be under massive pressure too, overall poor season, five losses in a row and could easily drop out of Europe tonight. Should be a good game either way. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October
Couldnt agree more with the above post. Valencia are a quality team in a quality league who play against quality opposition most weeks. Rangers are in good form you cant argue with their recent results in the league. In my opinion though the scottish league is far below the spanish league in standard. Valencia will want to get 3 points after their late loss at home to man utd. They were unlucky to lose this match & had man utd chasing the ball for much of the game. Rangers will find it hard to keep up a high tempo for 90mins & with the home crowd willing them to close down the opposition at all times i think they will tire from having to chase the ball & the game. I dont expect valencia to win by 3 or 4 but i can see a valencia win & think that 2.2 on betfair is good value. Good luck all! :okAgree totally with this one so much so that I am taking Valencia -2 hc available at 9/1 with WillHill Watched Valencia against Barca lost 2-1 but played superbly well and could consider themselves a lil unfortunate not to come away from the Nou Camp with something against a full strength Barca. I think we may well see something similar to what Sevilla acheived at Ibrox last season. This is a game that is important to both sides and Rangers need three points here if they are seriously looking to progress through the group. Valencia are a team that can hurt Rangers here. They play 4-5-1 system without the ball as soon as they are in possession they change to 4-3-3 in an instant with Mata and Pablo Hernandez joining up with the front man from out wide. Mata and Hernandez are classy players both in the Spanish National set up they ooz speed, directness and precision passing and thrive in these sorts of games where they are given freedom to express themselves when in possession breaking forward. I think they will prove to be a real handful for Rangers in this game, being too clever, quick and sharp for Rangers rear guard. I think this one will end up being a widely open game and if Valencia score first as Rangers push for a goal themselves can see them being caught out time and again. Sevilla benefited last season to this effect and imo this Valencia team is a better counter attacking team again to Sevilla last season. They already trashed Bursaspor 0-4 on the road can see similar scoreline occuring of 0-3 or 0-4. Can not see past 3 points for Valencia and going to play this game as follows: Valencia -2 9/1 willhill 1/10 stakes Valencia -1 16/5 willhill 3/10 stakes Valencia 6/5 willhill 5/10 stakes :hope -
Re: Champoins League Final - 27th of May - Barcelona v Man U Conratulations Barca, the best team won of that there is no doubt, maybe Man Utd didnt play very well but maybe Barca didnt let Man Utd play, just like Man Utd didnt let Arsenal play in the Semi Final. I backed Man Utd some correct scores so lost all my bets but i kind of guessed it would be that way as early as the 10th minute! Barca are worthy champions of europe, they play the beautiful game beautifully & Iniesta is a class act. Well done to all those on here who went against most on here & backed Barca! :ok
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Re: Champoins League Final - 27th of May - Barcelona v Man U Having watched both teams this season i feel that if Man Utd play to their full potential then they are good enough to beat Barca on the day. I think that Man Utd's midfield is full of energy & has the destructive ability to stop Barca from playing how they like & will frustrate them as the game goes on. Going forward i think that Man Utd have enough fire power to upset Barca especially from set pieces with Ferdinand, Vidic, Ronaldo & O'shea dangerourous from crosses. If Man Utd score early then i think they could go on & win by 2 or 3 goals as Barca will have to come out & leave gaps which will suit Man Utd on the counter attack with Ronaldo & Rooney. However i will throw this question into the equation, do you think the likes of Michel Platini & Sepp Blatter would like Man Utd to win the Champions League 2 years in a row or as i think they would like Barca to win as they play the more beautiful football in their opinion? Is there any mileage in such a game being open to certain decisions etc going in favour of Barca in order to attempt to influence the result in Barca's favour? I hope not but i do wonder, any thoughts welcome? Good Luck all! :ok
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Re: Euro U17 Championship, starts 06/05
Apologies Tulenos for not being around during the tourney! Just started new job & unbelievably PL is blocked on internet policy!! Oh well i will have to catch up during the evenings from now on, but its not ideal for sure! Good Luck guys! :okHi mate - yeah, it seems it's always just the two of us who follow these tourneys. Well, there is quite a lot of info on the uefa.com site, but hadly any really up-to-date. Spain coming here to defend the title again - it was the only country able to defend it in the history of the championship (they would logically be the first to retain the title second time around). The tourney is played in Germany and according to the site the final is already almost sold out. So expect the German side to do well (as they do in all categories on the international level, btw. -
Re: Euro U17 Championship, starts 06/05 Hi Tulenos! Remember me from last seasons tournament in France! I had some success last year doing correct scores for the favoured team & if i can recall there werent many games where the favoured team scored 3 or more. I will try & scout the internet for some info but as was the case last year there wasnt much to go on except the bookies prices & watching the early games for form. Let me know if you find any info & i will do the same. Good Luck! :ok
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Re: CL 14-15/4 QF return leg Arsenal - Villareal Wednesday 15th April ko 19.45pm. In my opinion Arsenal should win the match in regulation time tonite. Yes they will miss Gallas, Djourou & Clichy but i heard that Villareal too will miss their goalscorer from the first leg Senna also a couple of influential players out too. Villareal do not concede many goals away from home especially in england remember the 2 x 0-0 draws against Man Utd in group stages. They will come & see what Arsenal will throw at them before making the game too stretched early on. I wil put smallish stakes on the following.
- 0-0 @ 9-1
- 2-0 @ 6-1
- 2-1 @ 15-2
- 3-0 @ 11-1
- 3-1 @ 11-1
- I also fancy Fagregas to score first tonite, he has been playing the last few games so should be well on the way to match fitness & will be eager to score against a Spanish team.
Good Luck all! :ok
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Re: Champions League: Group Stage- Matchday 5 Wednesday 5th November
After hearing Professor Wengers press conference this afternoon i would say they were words fron an angry man. Arsenal had a shocking result & display on saturday. They could come out all guns blazing against the Turkish team. They have injuries to some key players as you stated. This could weaken them significantly. Turkish side not in best of form in domestic league either. They were well beaten at home against Arsenal. They could be out for revenge & have nothing to lose. Also injuries could weaken their already leaky defence. Too many ifs & buts for me on this match. IMO no bet for me. Good Luck if you do the above though! :okArsenal - Fenerbahce Arsenal Missing players : Emmanuel Adebayor, Theo Walcott, William Gallas, Eduardo, Tomas Rosicky Recoverd : Bacary Sagna Fenerbahce Missing players : Alex, Onder Turaci, Tumer Metin Recoverd : Deivid Fenerbahce is in bad form Aragones is under pressure, They must play to win, so they'll probably will play with 2 upfronts this time - Semih Senturk & Daniel Guiza FENERBAHCE TO SCORE ONE OR MORE GOALS @1.75 I think this a value bet!! -
Re: Champions League: Group Stage- Matchday 5 Wednesday 5th November
:welcome to PL vlknvlkn. What do you think of Arsenal - Fenerbahce?What do you guys think about ARSENAL - FENERBAHCE? -
Re: Champions League: Group Stage- Matchday 5 Wednesday 5th November As we have seen from tuesdays matches the champions league is very difficult to predict. Who would have predicted Barca only drawing with Basle when they started as red hot favourites! :loon Likewise Inter Milan, Liverpool, Werder Bremen & Chelsea were all supposed to win! Football is a funny old game! :loon Because of this i will be having 1 bet only.
- Fiorentina - Bayern Munchen over 2.5goals @ 2.12 BF
Fiorentina havent scored in their last 2 games & as we saw last nite with Roma things have got to change eventually. Fiorentina only have 2 points so will be looking to get maximum points from this home match & as the home team will be expected to come & attack a bit more than usual. Bayern too will look at this game in a positive manner & could cement their place in next round of champions league if they win & Lyon lose or draw. They seem to be scoring quite freely the last few matches but are also not rock solid at the back either. The above bet seems possible & value too IMO. Good Luck all! :ok
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Re: UEFA Cup 14 August
Well wot can i say Paul!! The season hasnt started yet & i think you can say that was lay of the season already!! Great call well done!! :notworthyI think Man City could well get shocked tonight as I've stated above. If they take this team lightly, they may well regret it. Hopefully FCM don't freeze and play to their potential. Lay Man City @ 1.38 Betfair -
Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008
Good Luck Rushian!! :okFollowing last year's attempt http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/yet-named-ytbn-system-52802/ at creating a football prediction model and having made some necessary adjustments, I am prepared to give it another go. Information about the model itself is given in the link above, but to summarize it's based on modelling the actual scorelines of matches in the English Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2 using some explanatory variables which deal with the standard of the competing teams, their current form, etc. The model produces estimated probabilities which are then translated into "fair" odds. The suggested picks represent value according to the model when compared to the available bookmaker prices. Let me repeat that the model is still under development so this is a paper trail. Level stakes will be used and to make things a bit easier to follow, I'll use only prices available from bookmakers rather than betting exchanges. The bookmakers considered will be the ones available through the football-data website. One last thing: the system attempts to find "value" bets. This means that the strike rate will be low (around 30%-35%) and I am expecting around 1000 bets over the whole season. Wish me luck! :hope Rushian P.S: Oh, and I've thought of a highly imaginative name for the system ... ;) -
Re: J-League: July 5th / 6th picks
Nice picks blackcrow J League seems a bit easier to predict than mlb!! ;) Kashiwa - G.Osaka lay the draw :okKashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka over 2.5 :wall Kawasaki Frontale vs Yokohama F Marinos over 2.5 :ok Kyoto Purple Sanga vs Oita Trinita under 2.5 :ok -
Re: J-League: July 5th / 6th picks Nice to see the J League being representedits the first time i have seen posts on here although i have followed the league for a while. Kashiwa - G Osaka as you said Blackcrow both teams are in good form & are on winning streaks so based on that reasoning i will go against the draw 3.7 BF, hopefully its one of those matches where both teams have good chances to win the game. Good Luck ! :hope
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Re: US » MLS » June 29
How do you say under for this match can you say causes of this choices?LA played 13 matches so far and 11 of them ended over.Only 2 of them under.On the other hand' date='DC United played 15 matches and 10 of them over the rest under (3 of these under 2-0 ) namely, this predict interesting IMO[/quote'] If you would like to read my comments carefully you will see my reasoning. This website is all about people expressing their opinions ;) -
Re: US » MLS » June 29 Thanks for info Djordje! Columbus :ok New England :ok Kansas :ok San Jose :eek unlucky! New York :eek unlucky! I didnt get a chance to see info until this morning so no bets for me last nite. I am tempted to go under tonite DC United - LA Galaxy. Both teams have been scoring for fun & last 6 matches DC been over every time i think. Maybe both teams will cancel each other out a bit i think under will be good price too. Good Luck! :ok
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Re: Norway, Tippeliga, 27-30th of June.
Not the best day in the Tippeliga I guess... Pretty surprised really that both Hamarkameratene and Brann was very careful in the match though. Still' date=' one game left on monday...[/quote'] Not your best weekend so far kimera in terms of predictions!! :) Its very unusual as you are normally bang on! Appreciate all the info though! :ok -
Re: Doncaster 27/06/08 Great call Billy! :ok What an incredible ride by Royston Ffrench did anyone else see it? His saddle slipped about 50 yds from the post & both his feet came out, he was dangling over 1 side of the horse inches from falling off but managed to hang on & win the race wot a fantastic ride! :notworthy Bet he will be a bit sore today!
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Re: Spain v Italy - 4th Quarter Final After seeing the form book tossed way out of the window in the other quarter finals this match looks like a bookies dream as opinions are completely divided. Did you know that desmond (2-2) hasnt been a score yet in any games, surely law of averages says that 1 game should end like this? I am on it @ 23 BF. Good Luck everyone! :ok
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Re: US » MLS » June 21/22
Final score 3-3! :wall Very frustrating after being all over columbus in first half but only 1-0 up. Despite that galaxy went 2-0 up early 2nd half then 3-2 up in 83rd min but couldnt hold on to lead, thats the unpredictability of the mls for you!!LA Galaxy - Columbus Anyone got any team news LA Galaxy? They are 1.95 on BF, IMO that seems very generous looking at their form especially compared to Columbus. Galaxy have a pretty decent home form too. Djordje you are the MLS expert have you any info? Cheers. -
Re: US » MLS » June 21/22
Final Score 0-0!! :wall Couldnt have been more wrong!! Oh well thats the beautiful game for you!!Toronto - Kansas Toronto have been fairly solid in the last 8 games with 14 points coming from them & only 2 losses. Kansas have been abit less profitable with 9 points coming from the same amount of games. IMO the MLS is similar to the championship in england where on their day any team can beat the more fancied team. Bearing that in my i will be laying the draw on BF. Also i will be doing over 2.5 goals BF. Theory for this is Kansas had 0-0 draw last game so IMO due to concede & score. Good Luck everyone! :ok
Netherlands > Jupiler League > 2014/15
in Dutch Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Netherlands > Jupiler League > 2014/15 Does anyone know anything about tonight's Telstar Emmen match? Only 6 points between the 2 sides & Emmen 1.90 on betfair as the away side? Just wondered if there is some team news that people know about?