gg-77

Barcelona is in big troubles. It's true that Ini and Umtiti could be back (Ini for sure), and I am just afraid that they will win and all the problems will be just postponed. Fact is that club leaders are doing things wrongly. Barcelona was used to work on own players but they right now they are becoming more and more similar to Real Madrid - just buying players... When I see Asensio, Vazquez and Nacho in first eleven of Real, I feel bad (I am Barca fan). There were times, when we had all the team from La Masia, but now.. Pique, Messi, Busi and that's it. Enrique is tactically maybe the worst coach in last 15 years and that, what is he doing right now is absolutely crazy. Back 4 + Busquets are playing so called possession game, when all the other part of the pitch just waits for a ball higher on the pitch. In that way every single team, yes also Sociedad can make pressure on us and cause problems. It was pure luck to win first match against City. Result was crazy high, but it could ended totally different if City would get penalty at the end of first half. On second match Barca played good, bud just for 39 minutes. Otherwise.. all they do now is ball on Messi, who is playing diagonall through ball on Neymar on the left flank, and then Luis and Leo are coming into the box, Ney is passing (mostly) to the Messi, who is scoring and that's. 
If anyone read my analysis on Sociedad-Barcelona, I said "They (Sociedad) are trying a lot over left flank, where left full back Yuri and left winger Oyarzabal are really doing well and they created many goals this season (Oyarzabal has 4 assists). And because they are used to play offensively there, I see problems for them, because this is side of Lionel Messi. I predict that Enrique will try to "penetrate" over this flank, because there will be lots of space, also from counter-attacks." And what happened? In average, that's positions of players one and another team:

Rakitić is shown there mostly because he was there in offensive roles, but in defence Sergi Roberto was almost alone on whole right side and looks that analyse of Sociedad from Barca's side was really really awful. Ex coach of Barca B (Eusebio) totally outplayed Enrique! As long as Messi is here, everything will be somehow fine, but after that.. I am just really really concerned what will happen... 
But on the other hand, Real Madrid is also far from decent form. They are winning, but also against Gijon they were just lucky. Čop missed penalty in 80th minutes, and everything could be different but anyway it looks that Zidane has his word against Perez, and they are somehow coming in solid shape. They have many players injured, but they are winning. Vazquez is proving that he is great player, same goes for Nacho and Asensio. Zizou knows how valuable are home players - his era had some of them and he is trying to put them together.

I don't post much, but for people like you I'm happy to make an exception.

First, you didn't put any money on Medvedev. Second, why don't you just f*ck off. CzechPunter is one of the best and most active tipsters on the forum and he contributes a lot, your contribution on the other hand is zero.

Back Andy Murray (-5.5) to beat Gilles Simon at 2.00 with Paddy Power
I know that the handicap line looks quite big considering that Simon is in form and that he's also a very competent player, but he's an excellent match-up for Murray and that should show. Tiredness could also play a role - while Murray looked alright against Goffin, Simon needed some treatment already this week and the epic match against couldn't have done him much good either.
Back Caroline Wozniacki to win WTA Hong Kong at 1.91 with Ladbrokes
Fair enough price for Wozniacki here, she seems to be playing really well these days and she's a class above the rest of the field at this point really. She also has plenty of experience, so I'd expect her to be a big fav in the eventual finals. Jankovic is bound to be tired after the match against Cornet, Mladenovic is too hit-or-miss, and Gavrilova is a bit over-rated in these odds due to her win over Kerber.

Czech, thank you for this bet. It was painful to watch how much picks you missed whith the high stakes) I was waiting for this bet on this day.
I will try tomorrow Riske against Kuznetsova at 3.5
I will be happy and surprised if Sveta continue to play well consistently, it will be a star and the most stable run of her career. On the other hand Riske on a good run, she is progressing, it is perhaps the most important match for her at this season. In this situation, 3.5 very interesting to try.
Sorry for my english translate...

Plenty of matches have caught my eye, perhaps way too many really.
Back Kurumi Nara to beat Monica Puig at 3.00 with Skybet
Nara is the underdog, there can be no doubts about that. That said, she's priced at 3.00 and I can't ignore those odds given that there are plenty of things speaking against Puig. Not only has she been in a bit of mess since the Olympics, but she also has a 0-2 record against Nara, so there might be some match-up problems as well (it's not even that hard to see why, as Nara can defend really well and draw unforced errors from Puig), so yeah, let's give Nara a go here I say.
Back Yulia Putintseva (-3.5) to beat Yafan Wang at 1.73 with Paddy Power
Wang has recorded some good results recently, but I don't see her troubling Putintseva too much if the world's number 33 plays reasonably well. Still a big gap between the two in terms of quality and Putintseva should also see Tianjin Open as a great opportunity for a really good run, so I expect her to be fully focused.
Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Nicolas Almagro at 1.53 with Bet365
Somehow, it's very hard for me to believe that Almagro will have a chance for this one. Firstly, he's yet to beat Youzhny, with the record standing at 0-5 (and that's over more than just a couple of years). Secondly, he hasn't really done anything since the US Open, while Youzhny seems to have focused on the qualifiers for Shanghai. I reckon that the Spaniard will give it a go, but I'm happy to take the Russian at 1.53.
Back Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Gilles Simon at 1.95 with BetVictor
Carreno-Busta has been on the rise since the start of the season, while Simon has been in decline all year long (well, there was the excellent match he played against Djokovic in the Aussie Open, but that's about it really), so I'll be taking the Spaniard here. He also had a great run in Beijing last week, beating Tomic and Gasquet before losing against Raonic.
Back Brian Baker to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.83 with Bet365
Fancy experience over youth here, despite McDonald's good runs in recent times. He hasn't had a great deal of rest and Baker might also be able to just outfox him with patient play and good point-building, so I'll take my chances with the talented veteran that hasn't shined only because of injuries.
Back Amir Weintraub to beat Federico Gaio at 1.80 with Betfred
Weintraub might have some small fatigue issues to deal with, but he's an actual hard court player with decent form, while Gaio is more or less a clay court specialist that has no form whatsoever. 1.57 for Weintraub would be reasonable, 1.80 is too much.
Back Henri Laaksonen to beat Mitchell Krueger at 1.80 with Betfred
On US ground, I'd fancy Krueger, but this is going to take place in Asia and Laaksonen has more experience with that, while Krueger has spent the last few months playing exclusively in the States, so there might be plenty of off-court issues as well. Laaksonen is probably also the better player of the two in all honesty.

Back Francesca Schiavone to beat Sorana Cirstea at 2.50 with Bet365
A big price for Schiavone, too big in my opinion really. Cirstea might've already overtaken the Italian in the rankings, but Schiavone is still a bad match-up for her due to tenacity and mental endurance. The Romanian is on the verge of self-destructing pretty much all the time, so I'm not sure what makes her a 1.50 favourite here. Their last match (in Miami in March) finished 6-4 6-2 in Schiavone's favour.

Big night of darts tonight. Lots of small stake big prices mixed with nice price doubles. 
4pts G.Anderson to beat J.Wade & have the most 180s 11/8 Skybet
The head-2-head speaks for itself really. Wade hasn't beaten Anderson since 2014 and Anderson has won the last 10 and the 11th was a draw. I will be taking the outright bet of 4/7 at bigger stakes but one I also like is him to win with the 180s as you'd expect Anderson to always outscore Wade in that area.
5.5pts P.Taylor to beat M.Smith & have the highest checkout 8/11 Skybet
Smith has to win or he is going to be relegated and finish bottom (which is what I want as I got him to finish bottom at 10/1 pre league) so Id expect abit of determination from Smith. Problem is, like Anderson, Taylor also needs to win as all 3 of the "big boys" are fighting it out for top spot. To get a better price I've chucked in the checkout too, as Taylor is hitting 100+ in most matches nowadays
1pt D.Chisnall to win the match / highest checkout / most 180s 8/1 Skybet
This is a pure value bet. I actually favour Wright here but also remembering that Chisnall MUST win to not get relegated, and the fact that Chisnall has a good head-2-head with Wright, all in all it makes this bet a great value shout. He will win the 180 count so effectively it's a checkout and win bet here for 8/1. Tiny stakes
2pts R.Thornton to beat A.Lewis 7/2 Skybet
0.5pt R.Thornton to win / highest checkout / most 180s 20/1 Skybet
Thornton was much, much better last week. He is scoring big again and doubling well. He beat Smith and got 3 180s and then got a magical draw and got another 2 180s there too. Lewis only managed 3 180s himself. This match will depend on other results with Chisnall before it. So, if Chisnall wins, this bet may not be a good shout as Thornton will have nothing to play for. If Wright beats Chisnall though, this is a great price and so is the massive 20/1 treble as if Lewis isn't in any form you never know. 
2pts Van Barneveld to beat Van Gerwen 13/2 Skybet
0.5pt Van Barneveld to win match / highest checkout / most 180s 33/1 Skybet
Price just looks too big for Barney. Van Gerwen is still winning all the time ofcourse but that draw against Thornton? the draw with Taylor when he should of won 7-4? the head-2-head with these two is 3 each in the last 6 and Barney won the last so yes, Van Gerwen should win but the value is too big to miss.
2pt Skyboost Accy - Anderson / Taylor / Wright 7/2 Skybet
A nice price for these three. I fully expect Anderson and Taylor to win and Wright you'd expect to win despite me tipping the big price on Chisnall treble. 

26.03.2016
376. Indiana -6 @ 1.980 (5Dimes) 2 units
377. Indiana @ 1.455 (5Dimes) 1 unit
378. Cleveland -8 @ 1.952 (5Dimes) 4 units
379. Cleveland @ 1.290 (5Dimes) 5 units
380. Utah -7.5 @ 2.000 (Pinnacle) 4 units
381. Utah @ 1.328 (Pinnacle) 4 units
382. Charlotte -3.5 @ 1.952 (5Dimes) 2 units
383. Charlotte @ 1.633 (5Dimes) 3 units
384. Boston -9 @ 1.855 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
385. Chicago -5.5 @ 1.909 (Pinnacle) 2 units
 

5pts S.Williams -5.5 games to beat A.Radwanska 11/10 Paddypower
0.5pt S.Williams to win the first set 6-0 16/1 BetVictor
Serena just owns Aggy unfortunately. Nine matches between these two and Nine wins for Serena. The last six have been on the hard surface and all six have been in straight sets. This handicap would be covered in 5 of those 6 and she's been six niled twice. I just don't see a chance for Aggy.

Bacsinszky to defeat Bouchard @ 2.05 - Pinnacle
Bouchard is getting a bit tired now after continual matches. She was shaky at the first round. On the other hand, Bacsinszky won convincingly over Pironkova and she is also consistent enough. So I think Bacsinszky will have the slight advantage. 
 
 

Moenchengladbach-Werder Bremen
 
Nice odds here on the Awayteam. Odds are falling in last Days. Think Starting Odds where around 9.xx-10.xx. Odds at the moment also have some value for me. Gladbach after there On-Fire Run in last weeks with that top 3-1 win against Bayern Munich, now looking tired and they will be all happy, if the winter break is comming. Loosing last 2 games against ManCity and Leverkusen, specially they are for sure tired. Becoming late Goals - against ManCity in last 10 Minutes and against Leverkusen 4 Goals in 2nd Half. Also the team have today some big injurys missings. So there is no big rotation possible. So most of the players have playing whole time against ManCity, Leverkusen and will be playing today. Long Term missings are Dominguez, Hahn, Herrmann, Schulz, Stranzl. New are now Jantschke who is missing. So next good Player miss the game. Also Trarore and in last weeks On Fire Player Johnson are doubtful. So if booth can play, i think booth will not be at 100% Fitness.
Bremen on the other Side struggling in the League and fighting against Relegation. But they are now coming with better fitness then Gladbach. Coach Skripnik have no important missings and for me more players they can rotated. Because specially in Midfield there is acutally no Men who are that men who are better then all others. Only Forward Ujah are scoring his goals. And here another Plus for Bremen. Skripnik substitued Ujah last game against Colgone in 67th Minute off. So i think they have do it because Bremen smells today like a suprise. Important is that Midfield Player Grillitsch are fit, after sub-off at Weekend. He can be made the difference today, but he is a young player. Bremen also away this season much better, then in Home Games. So maybe no big minus that they are playing today not at home. Bremen also have in Midfield NO creative Players at the Moment, but this is not the way where you win today. They must rund and fight against tired Gladbach team. And think so longer it´s stand 0-0 so bigger are the chances for Bremen.
So i expected a tough game where Bremen wants to hold that 0-0 so long as possible and they have problems to create chances, so for me there is a low scoring game. Can´t think that even Gladbach scores early that they playing for 100% effectivty whole 90 Minutes.
So for me here:
Under 3 Goals @ 2.02 4/10 Pinn
X or Bremen @ 2.29 2/10 SBOBET

Leicester v Watford
Its pretty obvious that a Leicester home game is going to produce goals. 
They lead the Premier league in goals per game average at home, with a MASSIVE 4.2 goals average. 
Their first half average goals per game is just 1.4, but the 2nd half is 2.8.
 The 2.8 average goals leads the Premier league. Next best West Ham (not even close at 2.2).

The over 2.5 goals at 8/10 looks a very decent bet here
 
Man United v WBA
 
United are just struggling for goals. It's pathetic to spend 250 million on a new squad, and then refuse to let them play.
They could have played this way with the existing squad, and saved 250 million !
They have scored just 1 goal in their last 4 games. Watching them play is ... frankly boring.
van Gaal has a crazy habit of playing everyone out of position, and endlessly tinkering with his lineups.  
They played great and demolished Everton away, and its the last time they played well.
I read a stat that stated they have the highest number of back passes in the EPL, and the lowest goal scoring opportunities. 
The natives are restless, which could be heard as they booed the Martial substitution in the CL match. Rooney scored, but to be
honest, any footballer with minimal skills would have scored that one. It was a sitter .
I have a real problem with van gaal not playing herrera and schnerlien in the same starting lineup.
For me Schweinstiger and Carrick have no legs (as indicated in the 3-0 smack at Arsenal)
 
WBA under Pulis are not doing much. Avoid relegation is the goal. They will setup difficult to beat.
 
A stat that is mind blowing for me is that in the last 5 home games there have just been 2 first half goals scored.
The average goals per game is .4 , which is the second lowest in the EPL (Watford .2 lowest)
Thus I like the under 2.5 match goals in this game at a price of 1.95
 
 
 

Vitor Belfort - Dan Henderson
These two fighters are going to the end of their careers. Belfort is more technical and younger than Henderson. His last 3 fights ended in the first round (2 wins and 1 loss). Belfort is a quick starter and makes very strong first rounds so i think this match will end very soon after the first round`s gong.
Belfort to win in round 1 @2.20 - win
Belfort to win in round 2 @6.00 - loose

Alex Oliveira - Piotr Hallman
With Oliveira’s quick feet and accurate punching, Hallmann will likely eat his fair share of shots in the early going, but his pace and durability will allow him to pull ahead in the latter half of the fight. Hallman is the underdog but i think he can win this fight.
Piotr Hallman @2.80 - loose

Some Suggestions, do I have to mention a stake? i am new to this
Viktor Troicki to Win @ 2.90 vs Jack sock
I think Sock will be tired and against Fed in the last match he tried to show boat and lost his way a little i think the outside bet is worth it here there is no reason why Troicki can win I think his motivation will be higher after a string of losses
Pierre-Hugues Herbert to win 1st set @ 2.25
Pierre Hughes Herbet has been injured recently so its questionable what shape he will  be in, but I think a bet on him to take the first set is a good shout, he has the quality to do so and Agut will be in poor mood after two final losses in a row, that can be good for him coming into this and the early start should be from Pierre 

Betting Angle

Once again the bookies got their wish with Rosberg edging out Hamilton in qualifying, this gives them a 50/50 market and they are 5/4 joint favourites with William Hill. Vettel is 7/1 third best and that’s fair enough and worth getting involved. Rosberg and Hamilton may well take each other on and leave the door wide open for Ferrari on this slippery circuit.

If you think one of the top three won’t make the podium then I’d take a chance on Bottas rather than backing either of the Red Bull cars who seem to be to inconsistent over the full distance.

In the ‘Points’ market the only real value is with Carlos Sainz at around Even money, he had driven well so far this weekend and was unlucky not to make the top ten shoot-out.


 
Selections:

S.Vettel EW 7/1 Paddy Power

V.Bottas (podium) 8/1 Coral

C.Sainz (points) Evens Betfair

Over 15.5 Finishers 6/5 Bet365


 
 

Awfull day for me, big losses. No word to understand what happen, a big surprise.
I apologise for the punters who followed me. I write here only if I'm sure...

Empoli V Sassuolo
Sassuolo +0.25 @ 1.892 Matchbook > 5% BR
Empoli are coming into the Sassuolo game off the back of a crushing 2-0 defeat at Frosinone. I managed to watch some of the game and thought that Empoli performed well in terms of their buildup and countering play, but their main problem is they lack sharpness at either end of the pitch. They struggle to convert their nice buildup play into goals whilst also making silly mistakes at the back. Coach Marco Giampaolo will be under pressure to turn results around soon but he will miss two key players for the Sassuolo clash with CM Croce and SS Saponara both unavailable.
Sassuolo have exceeded even my expectations so far this season, they currently sit 4th in the table and have performed with a lot of confidence thus far. Coach Eusebio Di Francesco has driven this Sassuolo team forward with the benefit of continuity and I for one do not believe their current success is a fluke. They have forwards with pace and skill who receive good service from the midfield, they counter effectively and I like them on the road. Empoli are the home team here and will be expected to make the game, they need the points in any case. When you combine that premise with the fact that Empoli often deploy an offside trap then the home team could become dangerously exposed and play into Sassuolo’s hands.
It should be noted that Sassuolo can also play the offside trap and Empoli do still have some quick and exciting players which can cause the away side one or two problems here. Despite this, Sassuolo seem to have the edge in terms of attacking play and would appear to have the better chance conversion of the two teams. In my view Sassuolo have a significantly better midfield and forward line compared to Empoli and Di Francesco’s side also has a lot more experienced personnel. Empoli have too many young players in their central median, particularly with Croce unavailable and it’s a big ask for Giampaolo to turn results around quickly given the present circumstances.
What are the risks? Sassuolo will need to make sure their confidence doesn’t turn into complacency. This game will be an 11:30 kick off so Di Francesco’s side will need to be wide awake and concentrated. Sassuolo are the only team in Serie A which remains unbeaten and I always get an uneasy feeling when backing a team on an extended good run. Eventually a lapse in concentration, poor discipline, flukey opposition or poor officiating will cost you so let’s hope that doesn’t happen here.
Despite my concerns over witchcraft and voodoo, the logical and pragmatic factors seem to favor Sassuolo in this contest. The +0.25 line looks generous for the away side given the present circumstances so I will get behind the Neroverdi here.

Daniel Cormier - Alexander Gustafsson
Very interesting fight between a wrestler and a striker. Two very good fighters, i dont see this match ending before the final whistle
over 3.5 rounds @1.72 win
Cormier to win by decision @2.60 win

Jessica Eye - Juliana Pena
under 2.5 rounds @2.80 loose
 

WTA Tokyo, Japan Alison Riske to beat Saisai Zheng @ 1.57 (Bet365) Alison Riske -3.5 games to beat Saisai Zheng @ 2.00 (Sportsbet Australia) Saisai Zheng won her 1st WTA title on the weekend @ home country tournament in Dalian but most of the wins came against fellow Chinese girls plus a final against Julia Glushko (out of form). Before that she was on a poor stretch of games on hardcourt losing mainly against the run of the mill lower WTA tournament girls. The next tournament the following week will be in Guangzhou, China; where Saisai Zheng is entered into the main draw so I'd be leaning on her mind being set on keeping fresh for another run at her home tournament. Saisai also won the doubles tournament in Dalian too so she's played 8 matches in the last week Riske is on a losing run too but last 4 opponents are more than decent (Wozniacki, Bouchard, Svitolina plus a game v Witthoeft). Riske has a 3-0 head to head record v Zheng and has covered a 4 game handicap each time. On the 2 hardcourt meetings, including one in China, Riske won 6-1 6-0 (in China 2014) and 6-2 6-2 (Australian Open 2013). One meeting on grass this year finished 6-3 6-4. I'm happy to back Riske to bounce back into form this tournament after a run of difficult games on the hardcourt.

Back Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to beat Elias Ymer for a 8/10 stake at 2.40 with BetVictor Back Marsel Ilhan to beat Radek Stepanek for a 8/10 stake at 2.50 with Betway Back I.Marchenko/G.Monfils - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power Back Ilya Marchenko to beat Gael Monfils for a 2/10 stake at 8.50 with Paddy Power Back Mardy Fish (-6.5) to beat Marco Cecchinato for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power Another awful Monday? I hope not. Schwartzman and Ilhan are the must picks for me today as far as the underdogs are concerned, really don't know why the odds aren't the other way around, Ymer is nothing special on the hard courts and Stepanek is just in a bad form generally. Marchenko should also have a shot against Monfils, who's been playing average tennis recently, especially after coming through the qualifiers. Finally, Cecchinato was crushed by Bedene last week and I expect to see something similar today with the over-motivated Fish on the other side of the net. Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/us-open-betting-novak-djokovic-starts-his-flushing-meadows-journey-on-monday