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welshman443

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Posts posted by welshman443

    Ascot Wed 17th June HELP!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ascot Wed 17th June HELP!

    Will have a look properly Tuesday night once ive had good chance to have a look' date=' expect many others will be the same, also theres a lot of uncertainty about ground conditions as of yet which can change things!!![/quote'] hi chris your right about the ground as ascot were watering but now they have stopped because they are expecting rain monday into tuesday so i guess it would be better to wait till closer to the day

    Ascot Wed 17th June HELP!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ascot Wed 17th June HELP! regarding tartan bearer hes a stable mate of conduit,1m-4f is probably his optimum trip but is as effective over this trip [1m-2f] unlikey though to clash with conduit given same owner-ship but if he did run he would have leading claims here as he should improve for is seasonall appearance when beating pipedreamer by a head over 1m-2f at sandown and as long as the ground remains fast which is likely to suit--- if they were kept apart confidence would not be as high in tartan bearer as it would be in conduit who seems classier and if the unexpected does happen and the pair clash,then the st leger winner would be the selection

    Royal Ascot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot

    Disappointed there's not a Racing Post Royal Ascot Competition for the second year running. Always enjoyed entering a few lines in those.
    at the race got one going,go on the ascot micro-site then its on the right hand side

    Royal Ascot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot here are some stats for the race tax free is running in trends for the 2nd race at royal ascot kings stand stakes-last 10 years 9/10 had already run that season [one that hadnt was dominica] 9/10 had an adjusted raceform rating of 121 or higher.looked at more closely7/10 were rated between 123-134 7/10 had won a group race over 5f [one that hadnt was a 3yr old] 7/10 were drawn between stalls 3 and 8 7/10 were four or older 6/10 won there last start 6/10 were overseas raiders including 5 of the last six winners 1/10 favourites have won,and winning sps have included 16/1[twice]20/1 22/1 and 25/1

    Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 14th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Sunday 14th 4-15 sailsbury-volochkova- meet trouble in running last time was a winner recently at lingfield,of which the form as been boosted,as a good jockey on top and with a good trainer,i think as long as he dont find trouble in running he as hot to have a better chance than some of these

    Royal Ascot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot the following was taken from the racing post regards the ground,and i have just looked at the weather forecast for the next few days in to next week and they are expecting some heavy rain monday in to tuesday ASCOT turned its taps on on Friday, with the irrigation system adding the equivalent of 6mm of rain to the straight course. However, on Friday clerk of the course Chris Stickels was still calling the ground good to firm, good in places. Stickels and his staff started the watering at 8am on Friday, turning off the sprinklers at 5pm, and he said: "It's almost good after that, but, with little rain forecast for Saturday and Sunday, the going seems sure to quicken up again." "We have been told to expect showers in the early part of next week but it's far from a settled picture and how much rain we will eventually get is not, apparently, easy to predict. "There is the possibility of stormy weather activity on Monday going into Tuesday, but there are doubts about that too, and we've been told to expect only small amounts of rain, or possibly even none at all, during racing on Tuesday. "What water we've put on today was designed to replace what moisture we'd lost through sunshine and breeze on Thursday, but it is not as warm, nor quite so windy today, so we shall have to see how things pan out before making further plans."

    Best bet of the day Thurs 11/06/09

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day Thurs 11/06/09 7-10 uttoxeter-wun-chai- going to give this horse a chance today better known as a hurdler,last run in a chase was 4yrs ago,but he as improved over the yrs and in the hope that he can translate hurdle form in to chases he will do for me like he did 2 months ago where he helped me win bbotd comp[prob come home stone last the luck im having lately]

    Royal Ascot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot i agree with you about this race billy,i know you got your own horse and opinion of the race but an horse i fancy for this is forgotten voice but the only thing that worries me about this horse is that he as only run on the all-weather and he as to prove he is just as effective on turf,also the ground maybe soft as ascot are expecting rain in the area from tuesday onwards

    what you think of this

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    someone sent me something and said you can make a profit from this what would you say they aint asking for money or anything i just wanted to know what you would think-please a guide to profitable betting 1) Ignore sprints . If your horse misses the break, it won't have time to get back into contention. The draw can also have a significant affect. 2) Don't bet in extreme Going conditions . Don't bet in extreme Going conditions unless you are backing a horse proven on extreme going conditions. 3) Steer clear of Handicaps . In theory, all horses are given the same winning chance, and these races can turn into a lottery (especially so as field sizes increase). Data from the database indicates that the strike rate in Non-Handicaps can be double that for Handicaps! 4) Leave the Veterans alone . In general terms, winning strike rates reduce as horses get older. Personally I won't bet on 8yo or older horses on the Flat other than in exceptional cases. 5) Back Horses in Form . As with the age of horses above, winning strike rates generally decrease as the last time out finishing position increases (i.e. horses finishing 2nd LTO have a greater next time out strike rate than horses finishing say 5th LTO). 6) Fancied Horses . The first 3 or 4 horses in the betting probably account for around 80% of winners. Only venture outside of these horses if you have strong reasons to do so. 7) Field Sizes . The bigger the field, the more chance there is that your horse won't give its true running (more chance of getting boxed in, hampered, clipping heels, etc). RaceXpert strike rates decrease sharply as field sizes increase. 8) Speed Ratings . If you use speed ratings, the strike rate of the top rated horses dramatically increase the more points clear it is of the second top rated horse (i.e. a horse who is 10 points clear of its nearest rival wins a greater percentage of races than a horse who is only say 3 points clear of its rival). 9) Early/Late Season. Give your bets extra consideration during the first and last 5-6 weeks of the Flat Turf season. A horse's fitness has to be taken on trust at the start of a season, and the end of season is renowned for shock results. Following any of these hints should be enough to put the percentages more in your favour.

    Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 7-45 chester-guilded warrior- is a course and distance warrior,was successful under this rider over this c/d last september and now back down to same mark here,got a feeling he will run well here tonight but does have to leave his last poor run behind him,but that was in a competitive race-chances

    Royal Ascot

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot how do you approach a meeting like royal-ascot ? do you limit your betting to a select number of short priced bankers ? or do you go for the longshots,reasoning that the racing is so competitive theres always a chance of an upset ?

    llewllyn and twiston davies to team up again

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Nigel Twiston-Davies and Carl Llewellyn are to team up in a new venture at the former's Naunton base in Gloucestershire. Llewellyn spent 18 successful years associated with Twiston-Davies - including Grand National success on Earth Summit in 1998 - before taking out a licence of his own to train at Weathercock House, previously the yard of Mark Pitman. It was announced earlier this week that Oliver Sherwood's former assistant Warren Greatrex would be replacing Llewellyn as salaried trainer to Malcom Denmark at Weathercock House. The Twiston-Davies link-up coincides with the opening of a new 52-box barn facility, which was shown off during an open day on Sunday. Twiston-Davies said: "We had a great time last season with the highlights being our two Cheltenham Festival winners and our Topham Trophy and Scottish National successes. "With our expansion programme moving forward at a pace and the workload increasing, Carl and I have had recent talks about how we could structure a framework that would enable us to work together again and provide for the owners one of the most beneficial environments available in which to enjoy their horses." Llewellyn, whose highlights last term featured Hennessy's dramatic last-gasp win under Tony McCoy in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and Roll Along's victory in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot, said: "I can't wait to start. "As much as I have enjoyed the past three years - and believe me the learning curve was huge - I take great pride in the achievements made. "My time in Lambourn has provided me with a tremendous springboard for which I will always be grateful. "This opportunity to join an already successful and expanding business has come at a great time for me and will enable me to move onwards and upwards. "I am looking forward to working alongside Nigel again as he is a trusted friend with the same outlook on life. "Nigel will as ever hold the licence, but this is very much a business partnership in every sense with shared responsibilities, and given our combined skill sets and those of the team here we are very much going to be a yard to be reckoned with in the years to come."

    Best Bet of the Day 07/06/09

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best Bet of the Day 07/06/09

    Poor racing today, however for the value hunters there are a couple worth a look.... Wind Flow 3.10 Southwell @ 11/2 carries by far the best form in what is technically a very moderate race. Ermine Grey 4.40 Southwell @ 6/1 Been prolific and consistant throughout the season only 1lb higher than its last win and Chris Caitlin booked to ride should go well.
    only one selection in one race per day mate
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