Trotter

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

I've tried all those in the past ..... with the exception of number 5 (but I can see the point of it)
In some ways I don't think it matters as long as you use the same method consistently. Where I have changed tends to be at the start of a new AW winter season where I decide to do something different this time round
At the moment I'm happy with my method of only using handicaps. I'm using RP Standard Times which measure something like 'a rating that a 100 rated horse carrying 9 stone should achieve over a mile on good ground'
As you look at a handicap race you can quickly see what a horse carrying 9 stone would be rated. Let's say it's 88....... you'd expect it run 12 lbs or 4 lengths slower than RP Standard. If it runs 18lbs or 6 lengths slower then the going allowance for that race is 'Slow 6lbs or Slow 2 lengths' ........ I use lengths
then you can average out the going allowances for the qualifying races or strike out the fastest and slowest etc to get your average for the meeting ....... which you can then apply to all the races
so I think my method takes account of the class of horses running at the meeting
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

+353.86
Exe 3.50 - Pirates Tale 5/2
Exe 4.20 - Bampton Star 13/8
Hunt 4.35 - Samuel Spade 2/1
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

Leipzig to win at 1.50
22 Points
cheers !

One problem if you really want to get obsessive about compiling your own figures is course configuration in the sense that courses might have variable going on different parts of the track. If you think about a large tract of land out in the country with dips and hollows and undulations it's evident that water will gather in the lower lying parts of the track ........ and the going will be softer there. So for example there might be a marked going difference between the round course which goes out into the country and a straight track........ and many race courses have both round and straight tracks
Very difficult to assess this with a small sample size of maybe 3 races on the straight and 3 on the round at a particular meeting
That's one advantage of AW racing ....... the tracks are flat (Ling has a bit of undulation) so the 'going' tends to be uniform across all distances
 

I try to mitigate the problem by only taking my going allowance from handicap races where I know the rough level of ability of the horses in the race. I work out in advance what rating horses of this class should achieve, compare this to what they actually achieve, strike out the fastest and slowest and use the average of the others as my going allowance
Although I'm not going to bother with UK Turf Racing (too much!) I did rate Donny on Saturday 
I had the expected figure for the 4 handicaps in time order, the actual figure and the difference
91- 42 - slow 49
99 - 54 - slow 45
85 - 28 - slow 57
85 - 31 - slow 54
these are all within the same ballpark which suggests they might be reasonable !
I strike out the 45 and the 57 and average the other 2 to give my final figure of Slow 52
So the Lincoln winner gets 54 plus 52 = 106
 
 
 

I try to mitigate the problem by only taking my going allowance from handicap races where I know the rough level of ability of the horses in the race. I work out in advance what rating horses of this class should achieve, compare this to what they actually achieve, strike out the fastest and slowest and use the average of the others as my going allowance
Although I'm not going to bother with UK Turf Racing (too much!) I did rate Donny on Saturday 
I had the expected figure for the 4 handicaps in time order, the actual figure and the difference
91- 42 - slow 49
99 - 54 - slow 45
85 - 28 - slow 57
85 - 31 - slow 54
these are all within the same ballpark which suggests they might be reasonable !
I strike out the 45 and the 57 and average the other 2 to give my final figure of Slow 52
So the Lincoln winner gets 54 plus 52 = 106
 
 
 

winning double - today + 1.00
month + 373.86

Doncaster 1.20
CHARYN 27/10
£20 win BETMGM 20% price boost
Won. SP 2/1
Daily profit £ 54
Monthly profit £ 280.52

winning double - today + 1.00
month + 373.86

winning double - today + 1.00
month + 373.86

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old
EW shots ...... 
Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1
I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !
Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old
EW shots ...... 
Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1
I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !
Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old
EW shots ...... 
Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1
I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !
Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

+372.86
Might try and use the rest of this month in an attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie, regardless of odds !
2.30 Bang - Montgomery 10/11
2.40 Newb - Heltenham 6/5
7.00 Newc - Ziggy's Missile 4/9
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old
EW shots ...... 
Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1
I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !
Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

I see that Chazzesmee is declared for the Lincoln on Saturday
He won the Irish Lincoln a few days ago and I did that day's ratings and had him with a figure of 90 which I think is pretty low for a top handicap winner. I intend to rate the Donny card on Saturday .... be interesting to see what he does.

To be fair, I am into my 70s ........  the old brain is a bit too addled to start doing complicated things with computers, particularly as I never learned to use them apart from what I taught myself
I'm happy enough to study the form in the old fashioned way and just form the ratings and keep them on a Word document ....... I don't keep a record for each horse just jot down the winners rating then I can quickly look up a horses last 2 or 3 figures by reference to the race winner of the races he ran in
I've never really been attracted to systems or data analysis ........ I'm interested in the horses that are running today and I'm happy enough studying today's race without reference to what other horses have done in the past. I've got the form of today's runners and that's all I need !

I see that Chazzesmee is declared for the Lincoln on Saturday
He won the Irish Lincoln a few days ago and I did that day's ratings and had him with a figure of 90 which I think is pretty low for a top handicap winner. I intend to rate the Donny card on Saturday .... be interesting to see what he does.