Trotter

7.00 Kemp - Zero Carbon - win at 11/2 wm hill

The Racing Post speed rating for that recent win was 87 ..... which seems a lot more reasonable than 123 !

^^^^^^
that was on my new Chromebook ........
just opened up my old Windows laptop and it's not working on there either, so I guess it must be the site not my machine !
that's a relief ........  hopefully they can fix the site whereas I have no idea how to fix my machine !
 
 

3.10 Chep - Walkinthewoods - £20 win at 5/2 wm hill

End of Month +258.55
Couldn't get that 3 winners in a Trixie ..... but still a good month's return !
 

Is it 'a thing' that Market Rasen races are not Live on the Racing Post site ? .... they don't appear to be today
Any other tracks that don't allow live pictures on the Racing Post ?
I know the Irish tracks don't !¬

End of Month +258.55
Couldn't get that 3 winners in a Trixie ..... but still a good month's return !
 

Is it 'a thing' that Market Rasen races are not Live on the Racing Post site ? .... they don't appear to be today
Any other tracks that don't allow live pictures on the Racing Post ?
I know the Irish tracks don't !¬

+278.55
Last attempt for now to get 3 winners in a Trixie ...... might think of something else next month
MR 2.09 - Post Chaise 10/3
Plu 2.30 - Alto Alto 15/8
MR 4.29 - Superstylin 6/4
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

+278.55
Last attempt for now to get 3 winners in a Trixie ...... might think of something else next month
MR 2.09 - Post Chaise 10/3
Plu 2.30 - Alto Alto 15/8
MR 4.29 - Superstylin 6/4
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

+278.55
Last attempt for now to get 3 winners in a Trixie ...... might think of something else next month
MR 2.09 - Post Chaise 10/3
Plu 2.30 - Alto Alto 15/8
MR 4.29 - Superstylin 6/4
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

+298.55
Something a bit different 
Hay 3.50 - Tip Top Mountain 17/2
Hay 5.00 - Good Work 4/1
Prices wm hill
£10 EW double
(these are 5/6 runner races so my horses will have to finish in the first two for EW)

ITV will now show the 1.50 and 2.25 after Musselburgh was abandoned

just noticed from your list that Chipstead is running tomorrow ....... Newc 3.35

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

+338.55
Time running out in my attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie ....... had 2 a few times and been denied the 3rd in photo finishes twice ....... time to try some short priced and odds on favourites 
2.32 Fon - Copper Cove 11/8
3.42 Fon - In D'Or 4/5
4.30 Wet - Imperial Alex 8/11
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

+338.55
Time running out in my attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie ....... had 2 a few times and been denied the 3rd in photo finishes twice ....... time to try some short priced and odds on favourites 
2.32 Fon - Copper Cove 11/8
3.42 Fon - In D'Or 4/5
4.30 Wet - Imperial Alex 8/11
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

+358.55
Kemp
7.00 - Mount Athos 6/5
7.30 - Rey Da La Batalla 6/1
8.00 - Two Past Eight 4/1
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

+378.55
New 2.35 - Polisud 10/11
New 3.35 - Hello Judge Evs
Tau 4.20 - Celtic Art 9/4
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......