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Trotter

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  1. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    I used to have a card index file for 3 mile chasers but even with such a specific group of horses it pretty quickly got out of hand. The problem in the olden days was that the Weekender or Sporting Life, later The Post, would only give you up to 3 previous runs in the form. If you wanted to know more than that you had to collect the weekly results pull out from the Raceform Weekly ?
    I became self employed in 1996 so gave up betting and racing for the next 12 years ........ when I came back to it I couldn't believe the amount of stuff available on the internet as regards form. Everything was so much easier and complete
    Unfortunately though I was never computer literate enough to get into all the data management ..... I'd never used a computer at all until I was about 4 years into self-employment when I thought I'd better take the plunge or I'd soon be Un-employed rather than self-employed. So I only learned how to do what I needed to do for work
    I'm still a pen and paper chap for keeping records of speed figures etc 
     
  2. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Zilzalian in SPEED RATINGS   
    I used to have a card index file for 3 mile chasers but even with such a specific group of horses it pretty quickly got out of hand. The problem in the olden days was that the Weekender or Sporting Life, later The Post, would only give you up to 3 previous runs in the form. If you wanted to know more than that you had to collect the weekly results pull out from the Raceform Weekly ?
    I became self employed in 1996 so gave up betting and racing for the next 12 years ........ when I came back to it I couldn't believe the amount of stuff available on the internet as regards form. Everything was so much easier and complete
    Unfortunately though I was never computer literate enough to get into all the data management ..... I'd never used a computer at all until I was about 4 years into self-employment when I thought I'd better take the plunge or I'd soon be Un-employed rather than self-employed. So I only learned how to do what I needed to do for work
    I'm still a pen and paper chap for keeping records of speed figures etc 
     
  3. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Good luck with that @MCLARKE 
    To be honest I've never considered compiling my own race times. Being very much a 'pen and paper' guy it would just take me too much time. 
    I think it would be fairly easy for me to become 'someone who compiles speed ratings' rather than 'someone who uses speed ratings to help find winners' ! ......... so I'm quite happy sticking to the winter AW and having the summer off !
    I'm still toying with the idea of rating the top race days ......... maybe days with Group Races on the card but I'll see how that goes
     
  4. Haha
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in Old topic but interested to ask...   
    I think most people would say that the enjoyment is in finding winners, studying the form, having opinions, trying to get value, 
    It's like doing crossword puzzles ...... the fun is in working out the clues and finishing it (the equivalent of finding the winner)
    If someone just read out the answers to the crossword and you filled the squares in, you'd soon get bored with that !
  5. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    one winning double ......
    today +0.25 (25p is better than losing !)
    month +412.86
  6. Haha
    Trotter got a reaction from harry_rag in Old topic but interested to ask...   
    I think most people would say that the enjoyment is in finding winners, studying the form, having opinions, trying to get value, 
    It's like doing crossword puzzles ...... the fun is in working out the clues and finishing it (the equivalent of finding the winner)
    If someone just read out the answers to the crossword and you filled the squares in, you'd soon get bored with that !
  7. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MGC in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    one winning double ......
    today +0.25 (25p is better than losing !)
    month +412.86
  8. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Offramp in Suggested revamped four-day Cheltenham Festival programme   
    Thanks @AzertyuiopFan for taking the time and effort to put your thoughts to paper in such a comprehensive set of posts !
    If we were to consider radical ideas for the Festival I'd be looking at dropping most of the handicaps. They could be spread out over Feb, March, April at the weekends at other tracks .... why not Sundays ?. Have a big top level handicap at Sunday meetings. Certainly I'd be dropping the novice and juvenile handicaps. 
    The exception could be the Mares races, I agree with your thoughts on  making them handicaps. The fact that we tend to get horses who win the race 3, 4, 5 times in a row suggests something needs to be done to make them more competitive ,...... and to encourage top Mares into the Champion Hurdle
    I quite like the idea of the penalty structure for the intermediate distances but if you make the races for specialists at those trips you might as well keep them as grade ones ?. I suppose the powers that be would argue that grade one races should be level weights though which might scupper the idea of keeping them as grade one races but with penalties related to distance. So making them Grade 2 races looks like a good compromise. 
    Definitely dump the Cross Country ...... I never watch it anyway
    The National Hunt Chase is, I guess, what Cheltenham used to be about ....... a gathering of the Country Folk and Landed Aristocracy and the main event would be their sons riding their horses against each other. 
    I suppose the main factor though is 4 days ........ shame we can't go back to 3 days but obviously it's now impossible
     
  9. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    +412.61
    MR 2.00 - Zara's Universe 5/2
    MR 3.30 - Flintara 11/4
    Hay 3.50 - Ali Star Bert 9/2
    MR 4.05 - Woodie Flash 3/1
    MR 5.15 - Double Powerful 5/4
    prices skybet
    10 x £2 doubles
     
  10. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from richard-westwood in SPEED RATINGS   
    I wouldn't bother with speed ratings for Jump races to be honest ......... the final time would be so dependant on the pace of the race that they would be meaningless. The same applies to an extent on the flat as well but over much shorter distances the relative importance is less
    I guess speed figures should be most useful over sprint trips on the flat
    An analogy with human athletes ........... 100 metre races are run pretty flat out so 'time' is the most important factor in who should win ...... just who runs the fastest !
    But over 1500 metres you also have race tactics, pace ..... will it be a slow run race to suit the athlete with a finishing kick or will some competitors set a fast pace to draw the sting out of the fast finishers
    The longer the horse race you'd expect the race pace and tactics to be more important relative to pure speed
    The way I look at speed figures is that all horses can run slow but not all horses can run fast ......... high speed figs indicate horses that can run fast relative to other horses and they'll always have an advantage because it opens up all the race tactics if you know you can run faster than the opponents (I can see the value of sectional times here to identify horses who can run the last couple of furlongs really fast)
  11. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in Suggested revamped four-day Cheltenham Festival programme   
    Thanks @AzertyuiopFan for taking the time and effort to put your thoughts to paper in such a comprehensive set of posts !
    If we were to consider radical ideas for the Festival I'd be looking at dropping most of the handicaps. They could be spread out over Feb, March, April at the weekends at other tracks .... why not Sundays ?. Have a big top level handicap at Sunday meetings. Certainly I'd be dropping the novice and juvenile handicaps. 
    The exception could be the Mares races, I agree with your thoughts on  making them handicaps. The fact that we tend to get horses who win the race 3, 4, 5 times in a row suggests something needs to be done to make them more competitive ,...... and to encourage top Mares into the Champion Hurdle
    I quite like the idea of the penalty structure for the intermediate distances but if you make the races for specialists at those trips you might as well keep them as grade ones ?. I suppose the powers that be would argue that grade one races should be level weights though which might scupper the idea of keeping them as grade one races but with penalties related to distance. So making them Grade 2 races looks like a good compromise. 
    Definitely dump the Cross Country ...... I never watch it anyway
    The National Hunt Chase is, I guess, what Cheltenham used to be about ....... a gathering of the Country Folk and Landed Aristocracy and the main event would be their sons riding their horses against each other. 
    I suppose the main factor though is 4 days ........ shame we can't go back to 3 days but obviously it's now impossible
     
  12. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    We're both on a good run ....... long may it last !
    👍
  13. Thanks
    Trotter reacted to MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    Won at SP 5/4
    Profit £33
    Monthly profit £ 286.52 
    Trting to keep up with @Trotter but not with much success !
  14. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    3 winners - 3 winning doubles
    today + 110.00
    month +412.61
  15. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    3 winners - 3 winning doubles
    today + 110.00
    month +412.61
  16. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Nigwilliam in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome   
    3 winners - 3 winning doubles
    today + 110.00
    month +412.61
  17. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Tuesday 19 March   
    I quite like the look of My Last Oscar in the 2.00 at Exeter. With just the 8 runners he looks a decent EW shot with 3 places
    Very lightly raced with only 15 outings in four and a half years but he has managed to win 3 races, Heavy ground holds no fears and he won in December at a stiff track over 3 miles on heavy ground so trip, track and conditions should be fine.
    My Last Oscar 10/1 EW wm hill
  18. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Bedlam in Racing Chat - Tuesday 19 March   
    I quite like the look of My Last Oscar in the 2.00 at Exeter. With just the 8 runners he looks a decent EW shot with 3 places
    Very lightly raced with only 15 outings in four and a half years but he has managed to win 3 races, Heavy ground holds no fears and he won in December at a stiff track over 3 miles on heavy ground so trip, track and conditions should be fine.
    My Last Oscar 10/1 EW wm hill
  19. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from yossa6133 in SPEED RATINGS   
    I do find 'problems' with every attempt to find a sub-set of the horse population to concentrate on
    For grade races you'll always find runners that have been running in maidens, handicaps, conditions & listed races, in Ireland, in France ....... horses that you have no ratings for unless you rate every meeting which I'd find impossible
    My main focus has always been the Winter AW ...... say October to March. The horses that run there are not running anywhere else so you can be pretty confident of having the full picture for those 6 months
    (My usual practice is to rate the meetings day by day and store the winners rating which I can refer back to and take lengths off for the beaten horses ratings. I don't start to rate the race I'm looking 'today' from scratch)
    this is how I store my ratings on a text document - 
    24/10 Wolv (hcap par 85, F7) - Vespasian 100 (6f c4), Triggered 97 (7f c5), Intoxicata 89 (7f c6), Bankrupt 89 (5f c6), Hannah's Return 88 (7f c6), Master of Combat 88 (9f c5), Elliott 87 (5f c5 2yo), Winterfair 78 (8f c5 2yo), Serengeti Sunrise 70 (7f c5 2yo)
    Hcap par figure is the expected average figure that should be run in the meeting's handicaps according to the class of horse. I only use handicaps for compiling allowances which I then apply to the other races on the card.
    F7 ------- this is my going allowance. In this case I reckon the track is riding Fast and on average the horses are running 7 lengths per mile faster than expected for horses of this class. So I take 7 points off the raw rating.
    Horses name and rating ...... then in brackets the distance, class of race and if it's a 2yo
     
     
     
  20. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    I do find 'problems' with every attempt to find a sub-set of the horse population to concentrate on
    For grade races you'll always find runners that have been running in maidens, handicaps, conditions & listed races, in Ireland, in France ....... horses that you have no ratings for unless you rate every meeting which I'd find impossible
    My main focus has always been the Winter AW ...... say October to March. The horses that run there are not running anywhere else so you can be pretty confident of having the full picture for those 6 months
    (My usual practice is to rate the meetings day by day and store the winners rating which I can refer back to and take lengths off for the beaten horses ratings. I don't start to rate the race I'm looking 'today' from scratch)
    this is how I store my ratings on a text document - 
    24/10 Wolv (hcap par 85, F7) - Vespasian 100 (6f c4), Triggered 97 (7f c5), Intoxicata 89 (7f c6), Bankrupt 89 (5f c6), Hannah's Return 88 (7f c6), Master of Combat 88 (9f c5), Elliott 87 (5f c5 2yo), Winterfair 78 (8f c5 2yo), Serengeti Sunrise 70 (7f c5 2yo)
    Hcap par figure is the expected average figure that should be run in the meeting's handicaps according to the class of horse. I only use handicaps for compiling allowances which I then apply to the other races on the card.
    F7 ------- this is my going allowance. In this case I reckon the track is riding Fast and on average the horses are running 7 lengths per mile faster than expected for horses of this class. So I take 7 points off the raw rating.
    Horses name and rating ...... then in brackets the distance, class of race and if it's a 2yo
     
     
     
  21. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Zilzalian in SPEED RATINGS   
    I do find 'problems' with every attempt to find a sub-set of the horse population to concentrate on
    For grade races you'll always find runners that have been running in maidens, handicaps, conditions & listed races, in Ireland, in France ....... horses that you have no ratings for unless you rate every meeting which I'd find impossible
    My main focus has always been the Winter AW ...... say October to March. The horses that run there are not running anywhere else so you can be pretty confident of having the full picture for those 6 months
    (My usual practice is to rate the meetings day by day and store the winners rating which I can refer back to and take lengths off for the beaten horses ratings. I don't start to rate the race I'm looking 'today' from scratch)
    this is how I store my ratings on a text document - 
    24/10 Wolv (hcap par 85, F7) - Vespasian 100 (6f c4), Triggered 97 (7f c5), Intoxicata 89 (7f c6), Bankrupt 89 (5f c6), Hannah's Return 88 (7f c6), Master of Combat 88 (9f c5), Elliott 87 (5f c5 2yo), Winterfair 78 (8f c5 2yo), Serengeti Sunrise 70 (7f c5 2yo)
    Hcap par figure is the expected average figure that should be run in the meeting's handicaps according to the class of horse. I only use handicaps for compiling allowances which I then apply to the other races on the card.
    F7 ------- this is my going allowance. In this case I reckon the track is riding Fast and on average the horses are running 7 lengths per mile faster than expected for horses of this class. So I take 7 points off the raw rating.
    Horses name and rating ...... then in brackets the distance, class of race and if it's a 2yo
     
     
     
  22. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from Zilzalian in Racing Chat - Monday 18th March   
    that's true ! ...... I usually do AW when I bother with them 
    In fact I did do AW speed ratings for a good 3 or 4 years a few years ago and found it a good basis for assessing races. It's OK over the winter but during the summer horses flit between AW and Turf so you never have the full picture of how they're running from race to race. The main problem is that there is far too much racing ...... it would be a full time job to rate all races. It might be practical to do it for Irish racing where they have a lot fewer meetings
    If you do fancy a crack at compiling your own ratings it might be an idea to have a separate thread where all the speed ratings posts can be grouped together ..... it's a topic that crops up every now and then but the posts get lost in the daily threads
     
  23. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    I feel a bit obliged to do some more speed ratings now ! ....... 😜
    I think I'll do the Doncaster meeting at the weekend in case I decide to compile ratings for all the main meetings which I have to say is a bit unlikely as the season gets underway ........ too much racing !
      ....... and maybe any Irish flat meetings this week just in case I decide to concentrate on the much more manageable Irish flat season with it's much lower number of meetings
    Over the winter, say October to March,. the AW is ideal ......... but not much point starting that now
  24. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    thanks ! ....... 👍
  25. Like
    Trotter got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Nice one ! ...... 👍
    Any chance you could move our recent posts over just to get it started ?
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