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Subzero

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    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 0-2 Bet Won New Bank: 53.12 pts Now we go back to Russia for this match: SAMARA v CSKA MOSCOW Samara has 2/2 unders in last 2 home matches Samara has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches CSKA Moscow 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches CSKA Moscow has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup, these teams are 19/22 unders last 11 seasons. Stake: 26 points Odds: 1.26

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 After 2 dissapointments yesterday, we try to recover. It will take a lot winning bets in a row to get anywhere near the starting bank of 100 points but i give it a shot. The next match is a more risky bet, and for that we go to Norway. AALESUNDS v MOLDE Aalesunds has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Aalesunds has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Molde 2/3 unders in last 3 away matches Molde has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup these teams were 2/2 unders last season. Stake: 21 points Odds: 1.50

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 Perfect stats, not a perfect result :\ 3-1 Bet Lost New Bank: 85.15 pts Next match in Ireland: BOHEMIANS v DUNDALK Bohemians has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Bohemians has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Dundalk 2/3 unders in last 3 away matches Dundalk has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches These teams are 1/1 unders this season Stake: 42 pts Odds: 1.33

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 Today we go to Poland for a match in the polish Ekstraklassa. This 1 has the ideal stats for this strategy. BELCHATOW V BYTOM Belchatow has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Belchatow has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Bytom has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Bytom has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup: last 2 seasons 3/3 unders Stake: 84 points Odds: 1.27

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5

    Nice results so far, Subzero. Are there any leagues which you concentrate on or leagues which you tend to avoid?
    No not any league in particular, of course the best leagues are France, Portugal and Greece because the fewest goals are scored there but odds are so low there(almost never higher as 1.20) it's just not worth it. Besides, not every match has a under/over 3.5 market on betfair so you really have to search a lot to find a match to bet on. Last of all, we're going to the end of the season in most european leagues so you really have to be careful, this is the time of the season really strange results come in. And about he results: just 3 bets placed where i was a favourite to win the bet, so it's really to early to jump into conclusions.

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 For the final bet of this weekend, we go to Italy for this evening's match in Naples. NAPOLI V INTER Napoli has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Napoli has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Inter has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Inter has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Headsup these teams are 3/3 unders in the last 2 seasons. Stake: 73 points Odds: 1.31

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 Now we travel east for a match in Russia's premier league. Only 5 matches played so far, but i have found a match with great stats. KAZAN V SPARTAK Kazan has 3/3 unders in last 3 home matches Kazan has 5/5 unders in last 5 total matches Spartak has 1/2 unders in last 2 away matches Spartak has 4/5 unders in last 5 total matches Headsup: last 6 seasons 11/12 unders Stake: 65 points Odds: 1.28

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 3.5 2-1 FT Bet Won New Bank 124.70 pts Let's go a few kilometers south to Austria where today's 2nd match take place. RIED V SALZBURG Ried has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Ried has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches Salzburg has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Salzburg has 5/6 unders in last 6 total matches These teams have already played each other 3 times this season, 2/3 finished under. More interesting, headsup these teams are 14/15 unders in the last 3 seasons. Stake:62 points Odds: 1.45

    Under 3.5

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hello all, A few years ago i followed a punter who posted on another forum. He selected matches and bet under 3.5 goals in a progressive system which in the beginning worked very well. I have done some testing last few months and i think the system is worth another try. Rules: - All bets with betfair - Starting bank 100 points - minimum odds: depending on the league but never lower as 1.25 - Bet is always 50% of the bank - only league matches Stats needed: Home team minimum 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Home team minimum 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Same counts for away team but obviously the away stats count. Head-to head stats also included. First selection: Germany 2nd Bundesliga: FURTH V AUGSBURG Furth has 2/3 unders in last 3 home matches Furth has 4/6 unders in last 6 total matches Augsburg has 3/3 unders in last 3 away matches Augsburg has 6/6 unders in last 6 total matches Last 5 head-to-head matches: 4/5 unders including a 1-1 draw earlier this season. Stake: 50 points Odds: 1.52

    Halftime Betting

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hello all, I have noticed that in some European Leagues around 50% of the matches is still a draw at halftime. I have created a progressive staking plan based on minimum odds of 1.80. The matches i bet have odds of 2.00 on average, i have never seen odds lower as 1.85 so this should be ok. The idea is to bet all the matches in a league, until all teams have a draw at halftime(or any significant winnings before every team has a draw at halftime show up, in that case i will quit earlier)So in reality, you bet on teams not on matches. This format shows the staking plan: Step Stake Odds Win Lose 1 0.5 1.80 0.40 -0.5 2 1 1.80 0.30 -1.5 3 2 1.80 0.10 -3.5 4 4.5 1.80 0.10 -8 5 11 1.80 0.80 -19 As you can see i will bet a team for a maximum of 5 consecutive matches, if they don't have a draw at halftime then i will accept my losses for that team. But if a team has a draw at halftime in any of these 5 steps a profit is guaranteed. I will bet om leagues with a minimum 45% draws at halftime. In general, these are the low-scoring leagues in Southern Europe but also the English Premier League(48%). With the premiership already running, i will post here the matches from the Portuguese Superliga(46%) to start with. Bank starts with a virtual 100 points. Home Step Stake Away Step Stake Total Stake Odds Result Won/Lost Academica 1 0.5 Leixoes 1 0.5 1 2.00 0-0 Won 1.00 Rio Ave 1 0.5 Guimaraes 1 0.5 1 2.00 2-2 Won 1.00 Setubal 1 0.5 Sporting 1 0.5 1 2.15 0-2 Lost Amadora 1 0.5 Naval 1 0.5 1 2.10 1-0 Lost Maritimo 1 0.5 Ferreira 1 0.5 1 2.10 1-1 Won 1.10 Nacional 1 0.5 Porto 1 0.5 1 2.10 1-0 Lost Trofense 1 0.5 Benfica 1 0.5 1 2.30 1-0 Lost Braga 1 0.5 Belenenses 1 0.5 1 2.25 I will update the odds as soon as the bets are placed.

    Davids Draws

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Davids Draws Hi david, i use a draw system also(which i will post on this forum in january). I select exactly the same leagues as you do, except the portuguese super liga which currently has a draw % of only 26%. But there a some leagues with a higher draw %(i personally select all leagues with a minimum of 30% draws and a maximum of 2.5 goals scored on average in a match). Maybe you can think of adding the following leagues: France National 35% draws Israel Premier 33% Italy C1A 38% Italy C1B 32% Portugal 2nd division 32% Odds for draws in this league are very low in general(sometimes as low as 2.70), with the exception of the Israel league where you can find decent odds. Good luck with your system!

    Asian Handicap-Progressive

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Hi all, With a new football season coming up, i'm looking forward to try some new systems. I will come back with over/under but for that system i wait a few weeks when some stats are available from the leagues that qualify(minimum 60% unders or overs). So my vacation is over, time to try something new :tongue2 It's very simple, i start with a bank of 64 points. When i see a match that's interesting, i always bet half of the bank. My objective is to reach 256 points but when it looks i'm never gonna make that i'll be happy with less. I never tried this before but lets see what happens. I play asian handicaps because odds are better en in some cases you get half your stake back. Bank is 64 points because when i lose the first 2 bets, i always have a decent stake to bet left. Today's pick: Galway - UC Dublin(+0.5) @ 2.00 Both teams only have 14 points after 21 matches, but Galway has a terrible 0-3-7 home record. A draw is enough for me to win this bet, so it's obvious why i picked this match. Odds will be placed later, i think i can get something better than what now is offered.

    UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results

    Now i don't know whats happened but the bookies seem to have shortened the odds for UNDERS in most of the leagues we look at. For example : S.OLOMOUC v ZLIN 4/5 previous fixtures have ended UNDER . OLOMOUC have had 6/6 homes end UNDER ZLIN have had 3/6 aways end UNDER. This would have been the selection and usually we would be looking for 1.5 at least , however even STAN JAMES , who have been pretty good so far , are only offering 1.44 !!!! In fact not one of the few other 'big' bookies are over 1.5 . If ZLIN had been on 5/6 or 6/6 aways UNDER i might have considered it but not with those stats. Unfortunately theres no other game near the criteria on Saturday.
    You're right jtw, the czech league has 64% unders, so 2 out of 3 matches have finished under. In fact if you had bet all the games at odds of 1.55 or higher you should have a profit this season. And until now, these odds were available. But the bookies don't want you to win so they offer 1.40 or 1.45 now :@ And this is not only in the Czech league, also in Greece and some other "under" leagues the odds are shortened. But on the other hand, the under % in Portugal and France had dropped under 60% so i think you find some matches with good stats for your system :ok

    Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Cherno More - Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 :@ CSKA Sofia - Pirin 3-0 :@ Envigado - Atletico Junior 1-0 :lol Winning bets: 70/110 Previous Bank: 114,49 units End Bank: 111,43 units I decided to stop with this strategy, overall it is to much work to keep all the leagues updated every week, find bookies which offer the games for the lesser-known leagues and the small profit is not really worth it. And i'm really sick and tired of the 3rd goals scored in injury time, although i realise that this will always happen. I have to think about a new system, it will use fewer leagues in that and add more filters. Thanks for support, when i start a new strategy i will open a new topic. Cheers :ok

    Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Saturday results: Nice - Lorient 1-2 :@ Villemomble - Calais 1-0 :lol Bnei Saknin - Bnei Yehuda 1-3 :@ Foligno - Verona 2-1 :@ Manfredonia - Cittadella 0-1 :lol Lanciano - Sorrento 0-0 :lol Lucchese - Potenza 1-0 :lol Sangiovannese - Salernitana 1-1 :lol Winning bets: 69/107 Previous Bank: 114,88 units New Bank: 114,49 units Sunday's picks: Cherno More - Lokomotiv Plovdiv @ 1.60 CSKA Sofia - Pirin @ 1.75 Envigado - Atletico Junior @ 1.98

    Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Friday's result: Brest - Niort 4-2 :@ Winning bets: 64/99 Previous Bank: 117,88 units New Bank: 114,88 units 1 minor adjustment: all bets will be 3 units, no matter what the odds are. Saturday's picks: CSKA Sofia - Pirin @ 1.75 Nice - Lorient @ 1.55 Villemomble - Calais @ 1.55 Bnei Saknin - Bnei Yehuda @ 1.55 Foligno - Verona @ 1.60 Manfredonia - Cittadella @ 1.60 Lanciano - Sorrento @ 1.55 Lucchese - Potenza @ 1.571 Sangiovannese - Salernitana @ 1.60

    Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Under 2.5 strategy based on stats and recent results Wednesday's results: Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski 1-0 :lol Belasitsa - Litex 1-2 :@ Spartak - Vihren 0-1 :lol Nothing new today, lost the bet in which i risked the most. And the CSKA match i decided to skip ended 0-0...:$ Winning bets: 64/97 Previous Bank: 121,13 units New Bank: 120,88 units 1 match scheduled for thursday, and thats in Poland for a matchup between the 2 worst teams of the league. Thursday's pick: Sosnowiec - LKS Lodz @ 1.65

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