kroni

Kempton 1.30 With Kelso unfortunately lost to the elements, the first of seven races on a rescheduled ITV schedule is this 6F novices stakes which has attracted ten runners and looks rather open. Clive Cox’s Sky Warrior is the only winner in the contest but a 7lb penalty for that Doncaster win last July may be his undoing here. Newmarket based trainer James Horton has had a horrendous year with his main owner John Dance leaving the game and he can strike with his Acclamation three year old Grandlad who gave odds on backers a scare when chasing home the 82 rated Run Boy Run at Newcastle on his racecourse debut last month and can be competitive and hopefully win at the second time of asking. There are others with chances including Harry Eustace’s Harry Did and Hugo Palmer’s Auric.   GRANDLAD 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Kempton 2.05 Ten go to post for the 1M Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies’Stakes, a listed race for fillies and mares only. There’s no stand out bet in the contest with the two highest rated horses being Mystic Pearl and Choisya from the William Haggas and Simon & Ed Crisford Newmarket stables respectively. We haven’t seen the latter for 138 days when she defeated the re-opposing Julia Augusta over course and distance and is maybe the each way value in a race where several can be given a chance. The Crisford’s have won with three of their last ten runners so arrive in good form and as long as the chestnut filly is ready to go can enhance her good track record which reads 21. The Irish raider from the Joseph O’Brien stable Adelaise has to be respected and may be the biggest danger to the selection.   CHOISYA 1 point each way @ 9/2 Coral 1/5th 123     Kempton 2.40 The Virgin Bet Roseberry Handicap is a class 2 contest run over 1M 2F and 219 yards and has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen. Andrew Balding’s Old Harrovian is an interesting runner making his handicap debut having won both starts on a synthetic surface at Wolverhampton and Lingfield although has been priced accordingly. The Hollie Doyle ridden Intinso looked good when winning at Wolverhampton last March and despite a rise of 8lb can be competitive here and looks the pick. The grey appeared to show improved form there, his first since being gelded and from a favourable draw can run a big race.   INTINSO 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Curragh 2.55 Nine line up for this Group 3 Alleged Stakes which will be run on very soft ground. Last year’s Ballysax winner White Birch will have to be on the short list although his trainer John Joseph Murphy has only had one runner this year (back in January)and there would have to be questions over his fitness even if he did win first time out last season. In contrast we know that Joseph O’Brien has his string forward winning with 15 of his 46 runners this year at a win to run ratio of 33% and his representative here is his four year old filly Maxux who could be quite smart. A winner of two of her four starts as a three year old (she was unraced as a juvenile), she finished her season by taking a Group 3 at Fairyhouse by 4 1/4L from the right horses and although she has to prove herself on very soft ground appeals as one to be with.   MAXUX 1 point each way 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Kempton 3.15 The 2M Virgin Bet Queen’s Prize Handicap has attracted a field of fourteen and has a very open look about it. Top weight Novel Legend has claims although I would like to see his trainer James Fanshawe in better form (although he did have a winner on Thursday) whilst the other market leader Sweet Fantasy will find these conditions rather different than when winning two juvenile hurdles in the mud this winter for his up and coming trainer James Owen. The pick for me has to be the bottom weight, Circuit Breaker. Formerly trained by Ralph Beckett he ticks many boxes here as he has won fresh before, stays the trip, handles the surface having won over course and distance and likes to be ridden forward with the plum draw in stall 1 to adopt those tactics. The booking of James Doyle is positive and this Jonjo O’Neill trained four year old looks excellent each way value having joined O’Neill for 260,000 guineas last October.   CIRCUIT BREAKER 2 points each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Chelmsford 3.30 An intriguing race for a Saturday afternoon at Chelmsford is the valuable Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes, a trial (usually in name only) for the Kentucky Derby. The fact that Aidan O’Brien sends over Capulet and maybe more interesting that Ryan Moore is here to ride points to the son of Justify as the most likely winner. A winner of a Dundalk maiden on his racecourse debut last August he followed that up with places in Group 2’s at Leopardstown and Newmarket the following month. As with, it seems, all of Aidan’s three year olds he has a stack of future group entries which include the 2000 Guineas and the English and Irish Derby. His main danger appears to be last weekend’s listed Burradon Stakes winner Cuban Tiger who had another of today’s opposition Orne (5lb better off for 3 1/4L and racing in first time cheek pieces) behind. This should be going to Ballydoyle and Capulet.   CAPULET 2 points win @ 11/10 William Hill   Kempton 3.45 Just five have declared for this Virgin Bet Fillies’ Conditions Stakes and we have a very warm favourite here in the Charlie Appleby trained Devoted Queen. She looked a smart sort when winning well on her racecourse debut at Newmarket on soft ground last October and this KIngman filly will be hard to beat and could even force her way into a run in the first classic of the season , the 1000 Guineas in a months time for which she is currently a 25/1 chance. She’s obviously been well found in the market here however but should be winning with the Richard Hughes trained Les Bleus looking the biggest danger having kept good company as a juvenile and placing in group company.  

YTD -£38.46
BET 17
 

Day 99
+£46
 

Day 98
+£55
 

3/4 placed, one with a big rule 4 and Angel coming in to 7-1 didn't help, but the extra place helped all 3. 

Interesting read in here, I had a dabble with speed ratings years ago and this thread jogged my memory on some of the issues and ideas I had about them.
As @Trotter has mentioned with going allowances, judging longer races the same way as sprints is a problem, or more so comparing races round a bend(s) with races on straight courses, because rail movements making distances longer, also in dry weather and firmer going the bends can be watered to make them safe so could potentially be slower. Possible solution is to have different going allowances for straight and round course?
As for race times, there are things that make them seem better or worse than they actually are which can be hard to gauge, like head winds and tail winds, rail movements, horses getting a perfect tow into the race much like a cyclist being in the cover of the peloton and getting a lead out for a sprint finish.
One example would be Minzaal @MCLARKE mentioned above, shame it never raced again and no doubt was a good performance to win by 3.75 lengths over 6f, but everything was in its favour that day to achieve that course record. The ground was very quick especially on the straight course which led to there being 33 non-runners on the card which is a crazy amount. Minzaal got a perfect tow into the race off a very fast pace. Bit of a random one as the time was also recorded by hand which is odd and adds doubts to the accuracy of it. Also things that may of affected going allowances is the extra yardage on all the races on the round course and the fact the back straight and bends had been watered, where as the sprint course was not watered.

I'm looking through the qualifiers. I'll be taking the following to qualify :

2pts Sijun - Section 6 6/4 Bet365
2pts Jak Jones - Section 5 2/1 Bet365
2pts Page - Section 12 9/4 Paddypower
2pt Fu - section 9 11/2 Paddpower
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1pt He Guoqiang - section 3 6/1 Paddypower
1pt Hongyu - Section 1 8/1 Paddypower
1pt Emery - section 11 9/1 Paddypower
1pt Xu Si - Section 4 10/1 Paddypower
1pt Pengfei - section 13 12/1 Paddypower
-----------------------------------------------------------------
0.25pts Carty - section 16 14/1 Paddypower
0.25pts Holt - section 14 22/1 Paddypower
0.25pts Pullen - section 15 33/1 Bet365
0.25pts Ka Wai Cheung - section 3 66/1 Bet365
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2pt treble - Walden, Slessor & Wakelin 10/1 Paddypower

500 fairyhouse 
Frontal Assault @ 20/1 ew bet365 

500 fairyhouse 
Frontal Assault @ 20/1 ew bet365 

Lucky15Ref: 348021887 4 Selections
6. Huelgoat - 8/1Winner - 14:25 Plumpton   1. Crescent Lake - 16/1Winner - 15:30 Kempton   9. Brazen Idol - 17/2Winner - 16:05 Kempton   4. Dream Pirate - 9/2Winner - 17:15 Kempton   Stake£3.00 Potential Returns£2,456.80

Day 94
+86

Dsy 93
+76

Hi guys, I'm sticking up a fun All Weather lucky 15 for Southwell... these are not my main selections, just trying out some ideas for all weather racing and figured I would would pop them on a lucky 15 for this thread... 🤞
 
 

2024 Running total -£35.46
Bet16
 

Lucky15Ref: 345242132 4 Selections
10. Darwell Lion - 11/1Winner - 14:40 Lingfield   3. Aqwaam - 4/1Winner - 15:15 Lingfield   7. Aberama Gold - 10/1Winner - 15:35 Newcastle   1. Dear My Friend - 7/2Winner - 16:40 Newcastle   Stake£3.00 Potential Returns£1,029.40 Retain Selections Total Stake£3.00 Total Potential Returns£1,029.40