Crespo

Hello,

After a long time finally an in-play Betfair-tip again. It's for the Meerbusch Challenger match Cerundulo - Coppejans, which was stopped yesterday at a 5-2 30-30 lead for Coppejans (Cerundolo serving) in the first set. When the match stopped the bookies had Coppejans somewhere around 1,25 (William Hill) - to 1,35 (BWin) and on Betfair itself the odds were around 1,36-1,38. However it seems like people are not aware of this, since Coppejans is now trading at Betfair at odds around 1,55. The match will start again after the first match on court (but not before 10.30 UK time) and the odds will definitely fall again then, so this should be a nice trading opportunity. 
Update: Even 1,65 now

Update2: That was a crazy market. Coppejans even went above 1,7. Now the match has started, two points later he won the set and he's 1,27.

UTR Pro Mens Tennis Series Europe/ Barcelona
Genov to beat Roca Batalla @ 4,5 (PaddyPower) (I use the Betfair Exchange myself though)
 
I mostly post in-play tips for Betfair, but for now I have a pre-match one, so let's hope it won't turn out a complete disaster lol. The bet is based on two things. First on Genovs match against  Canas Garcia yesterday. He did pretty well and came close to even winning in the third set tiebreak. I know Roca Batalla is a big step up from Canas Garcia, but there comes the second reason. Roca Batalla, after winning the first set against Lobato lost that match and had a injury - i believe it was his back - at the end of that match. He couldn't move fully normally so I doubt he will be fully fit today. 

Sure, Pouille playing in the 50% of his capacity is enough to destroy him. Horansky best surface is clay, by far... As I said, he has a negative record on this surface and the last time he won a match on this surface was in 2019 (Bratislava challenger). He never has been in the top 150 and the only time he has been in the main draw of an ATP event was 3 years ago (Lyon). I guess if Pouille plays this tournament is because he's in a decent form. Besides, he has won his doubles match... So, considering all I have said, how is Pouille priced at 1.60¿? I find it a little bit strange, but we'll see. I expect Pouille to win this "easily", though.

UTR Pro Mens Tennis Series Europe/ Barcelona
Genov to beat Roca Batalla @ 4,5 (PaddyPower) (I use the Betfair Exchange myself though)
 
I mostly post in-play tips for Betfair, but for now I have a pre-match one, so let's hope it won't turn out a complete disaster lol. The bet is based on two things. First on Genovs match against  Canas Garcia yesterday. He did pretty well and came close to even winning in the third set tiebreak. I know Roca Batalla is a big step up from Canas Garcia, but there comes the second reason. Roca Batalla, after winning the first set against Lobato lost that match and had a injury - i believe it was his back - at the end of that match. He couldn't move fully normally so I doubt he will be fully fit today. 

Hello all, just a small in-play tip on Betfair. The ITF Czech Republic (Pardubice) tennis futures match Cerundulo - Sanchez Izquerdo got suspended yesterday after the first set and is set to be continued today in problaby about 2 hours. Before the match the odds were about equal on both sides (1.8x range, and some had Sanchez Izquerdo a small favourite. Sanchez Izquerdo won the first set 7-5 and his odds dropped to around 1,22 - 1,30 range on the bookies. Apparently some people on Betfair dont know about this or think the match still has to start because right now some people are offering odds in the 1,6/ 1,7 range on Sanchez Izquerdo again. So way above his real odds. Not sure how much you can match, but if you do it should be at least good for a nice trade when the match will start again. 

Not sure if I should post this, because the liquidity is shit at best so it may be for a few pennies and not for much use, but who knows, maybe it gets better:...Some stupid odds movement in in-play matches at Betfair again. The ITF Perth matches were suspended because of rain and once again people don't seem to know what the real odds are. For example the Myers - Akita and Arakawa - Parnaby matches. Akita leads a set and a break and was around 1,16 when the match got suspended (at oddspedia you can see that a lot of bookies have here even lower: https://oddspedia.com/tennis/australia/itf-perth-2-women/abbie-myers-shiho-akita-3149425/). Now she is trading in the 1,2x range and I see she has even been traded at 1,3x and 1,4x, which is madness. Same goes for the Arakwa match. Arakawa just broke back before the match suspended but is still trailing 3-4 and the odds were around evens when the match suspended. (Some bookies have that as well, some have Arakawa as a small favorite and some have Parnaby as the small favorite). However people, are now betting on 1,6x Arakawa , which is around or close to her starting price, instead of the actual odds. So if you are an in-play bettor and you can get matched, you should easily see some profit once again the matches start again. 

Not sure if I should post this, because the liquidity is shit at best so it may be for a few pennies and not for much use, but who knows, maybe it gets better:...Some stupid odds movement in in-play matches at Betfair again. The ITF Perth matches were suspended because of rain and once again people don't seem to know what the real odds are. For example the Myers - Akita and Arakawa - Parnaby matches. Akita leads a set and a break and was around 1,16 when the match got suspended (at oddspedia you can see that a lot of bookies have here even lower: https://oddspedia.com/tennis/australia/itf-perth-2-women/abbie-myers-shiho-akita-3149425/). Now she is trading in the 1,2x range and I see she has even been traded at 1,3x and 1,4x, which is madness. Same goes for the Arakwa match. Arakawa just broke back before the match suspended but is still trailing 3-4 and the odds were around evens when the match suspended. (Some bookies have that as well, some have Arakawa as a small favorite and some have Parnaby as the small favorite). However people, are now betting on 1,6x Arakawa , which is around or close to her starting price, instead of the actual odds. So if you are an in-play bettor and you can get matched, you should easily see some profit once again the matches start again. 

For the people on Betfair. There can be some money made because of some rain delays once again. The WTA and challenger  tournaments of Houston got suspended due to rain yesterday and will start tonight again, but on some matches there is quite a difference on where the odds were last night and where they are now. For example on the mens Brymer - Altamirano match. Altamirano was traded around 1,35 (maybe 1,4 max) when the match just stopped on Betfair and is at the lower 1,3x odds at most bookies now. However now on Betfair he sometimes can be backed in the 1,5x and I've even seen the 1,6x range. Considering the 'real' odds and his starting odds were lower than 1,3 and he;s only one break behind in the second set, I would say this is value. And things like this can also be seen on the other markets. I've seen Govortsova in the womens tournament seen trading at the 1,26-1,28 mark this morning, while the odds when the match was stopped were around 1,18-1,2. It may not look much but I guess every small things help.
 
 

Cheers @Kokukepo! The goal is to end the year in a profit, looking very good at the moment with just about 26 days to go.
Hiroki Moriya (-3.5) to beat Evan King at 2.03 with Pinnacle
I watched both of these recently and Moriya is currently playing at least a level above King, who nearly lost even against the virtually unknown Ibrahim not that long ago. Not saying this is a lock or anything and the line is a bit on the edge considering that Moriya might be tired a little bit, but the odds are nice and there is a gap between the two, so I'll chance the man from Japan yet again. He's always been a quality performer in my book.

Thanks for the input kedbet! Uchida won very very easily so it was a very weird odds movement after all. 

Thanks for the input kedbet! Uchida won very very easily so it was a very weird odds movement after all. 

Hello all,

Just a small in-play rain tip from me for again for on Betfair. The ITF Andijan matches have been delayed and moved till tomorrow. For most of the markets the liquidity is pretty shit - as you would expect - but I noticed some action going on on the Savinykh - Rakhimova match. A couple of thousands - much compared to the other markets - have been matched on Savinykh on really low odds 1.14-1.31 range, while the match was already paused. And this while the score is 5-5 (0-0 in the game as far as I know) in the first set and the starting odds were pretty much evens, and Rakhimova just a slight favorite at some bookies even as well. I'm not sure if people will try to back these odds again, but otherwise it will be def. a nice lay at those odds. 

Normally I would also say you should be able to trade out for a nice green on both sides but I'm not going to 'promise' that here, since I really don't know what the liquidity will be on this market. 

Hello,
Another small in-play tip from me again. Not sure how much profit you can make from it, because the odds fluctuate, but right now they are very much wrong again. Yesterday the ATP Rio Doubles match between Romboli/ Monteiro and Bambrige/ O'Mara started. Bambridge and O'Mara were pretty big favourites, but lost the first set. Score was 1-1 in the second set. Then the match stopped because of rain. When the match stopped, till the match dissappeared from the bookies etc, the odds on the bookies were around 1,8 for Romboli and Monteiro and 1,95 for Bambridge/ O'mara (I checked bet365 and William hill.) On Betfair Romboli and Monteiro were around 1,85-1,87 then. 

Since there are no doubles scheduled for tonight, the match will continue on wednesday and it seems people have no clue what the odds were when the rain started. Because now on Betfair people are backing Romboli and Monteiro in the 1.5x range...So if you lay these odds, you should be able to make some sure profit when the match will start again tomorrow. So as always, it's not a tip about I think who wins, but I do know that right now the odds are way off again because of a rain delay.

Peter Gojowczyk (-1.5 sets) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.88 with Paddypower
Peter should be able to take this in straight sets. Jo has been gone for too long and therefore I think he will struggle with his shots in the long run. He might hold his serve for a tie-break but in the end I don't even think this match will be interesting.

My pick is from ATP Metz, R1. Peter Gojowczyk is #45 and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is #71. Gojowczyk didn’t have good results during the clay season due to some physical issues. But, he’s better now and this tournament is on hard indoor, which is his best surface. He won here last year, so he'll try to repeat it. Tsonga had a serious injury in Feb and is really far from playing the way he used to, it will be hard for him to face a more intense player.
Gojowczyk to win @ 1.740 with Pinnacle.

Mihail Youzhny to beat Mirza Basic at 1.91 with Ladbrokes
Donna Vekic to beat Sloane Stephens at 3.00 with Ladbrokes
Belinda Bencic to beat Garbine Muguruza at 3.00 with Paddy Power
Alexandra Krunic (-3.5) to beat Viktorija Golubic at 1.90 with Bet365
Daria Gavrilova (-3.5) to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.98 with Pinnacle
Going for quite a few bets in the first round, let's see what happens. Mirza Basic was as dreadful as expected against Nishioka, so I'm going to go against him once again. I also didn't like Pliskova and Golubic last week, while Krunic and Gavrilova had many good results in Asia in the past and have the form books to win these matches as well. And now the underdogs - Sloane Stephens had a truly dreadful Asian run after a good US Open and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar again with her not being too interested after a good season. Vekic isn't a bad player by any stretch of imagination and she's beaten Sloane before. Meanwhile, Muguruza has been rather poor in recent times, her performance against Muchova in the US Open was just lifeless, for example, while Bencic is keen on playing after yet another injury break. At 3.00, I'm willing to give both Vekic and Bencic a shot.

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

Thanks a lot CSanders. Bacszinsky won easily, but even if she wouldn't have, the odds were simply off. This happens a lot on Betfair during (longer) delays/ interruptions of matches. 

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

Well odds were all over the place for a while in the first set. Way too high again after Velotti broke, then way too low when Mamoun got in front. And now Velotti is leading a set and 4-0, so if someone took some, it's easy to trade out now.  

Hello all. Yet again, another small in-play tip. Maybe this one isn't that good because the odds are not as off as some other matches i mentioned but they are still off. Its about the qualification match Maamoun - Velotti in the Padova Challenger, offered on betfair. Velotti was the clear favorite (odds-wise) before the match and is leading on serve 3-2  0-30 (Maamoun serve), when it started raining and the match was interrupted till today. When the match stopped the odds were about 1,6 Velotti and 2,15 Maamoun on BWin, and pretty much the same at other bookies.
 
Yet again I think people are unaware of this, because now at Betfair people are backing Maamoun as low as 1.7x , while he should be around 2.15. So as I said, maybe the odds aren't as off as some previous matches but they are still pretty much off and they at least make for a good trade when the match will start again this afternoon.

Good luck!

Hello all. An in-play tip for Betfair again. In the Canada ITF Futures tournament, the match between Kwiatkowski and Ore got suspended. It got suspended at 1-1 in set and 0-15 at for Kwiatkowski at the Ore serve. Kwiatkowski was the big favorite, and remained favorite even after losing the first set. After winning the second he became a below 1.3 favorite again. At the 0-15 point which was last played he was backed around 1.25 at Betfair and I saw he was even 1.17 at BWin. 
 
It seems people betting at Betfair now are not aware of these odds, because some people are laying Kwiatkowski at 1.4 or higher at the moment. So backing these 1.4 or higher will make for a very good trading option. And maybe trading isn't even necessary, because normally Kwiatkowski should win and Ore also got a medical timeout after the second set. So the question is also how fit he still is.

Good luck!
 
An update: The remainder of the match has moved to tomorrow. Some people are even laying close to 1.5., which is even more than double the real odds. Looks like they don't have a clue about those odds because of the matches dissappeared from the bookies till tomorrow. 

Hello all. An in-play tip for Betfair again. In the Canada ITF Futures tournament, the match between Kwiatkowski and Ore got suspended. It got suspended at 1-1 in set and 0-15 at for Kwiatkowski at the Ore serve. Kwiatkowski was the big favorite, and remained favorite even after losing the first set. After winning the second he became a below 1.3 favorite again. At the 0-15 point which was last played he was backed around 1.25 at Betfair and I saw he was even 1.17 at BWin. 
 
It seems people betting at Betfair now are not aware of these odds, because some people are laying Kwiatkowski at 1.4 or higher at the moment. So backing these 1.4 or higher will make for a very good trading option. And maybe trading isn't even necessary, because normally Kwiatkowski should win and Ore also got a medical timeout after the second set. So the question is also how fit he still is.

Good luck!
 
An update: The remainder of the match has moved to tomorrow. Some people are even laying close to 1.5., which is even more than double the real odds. Looks like they don't have a clue about those odds because of the matches dissappeared from the bookies till tomorrow. 

Hello all. An in-play tip for Betfair again. In the Canada ITF Futures tournament, the match between Kwiatkowski and Ore got suspended. It got suspended at 1-1 in set and 0-15 at for Kwiatkowski at the Ore serve. Kwiatkowski was the big favorite, and remained favorite even after losing the first set. After winning the second he became a below 1.3 favorite again. At the 0-15 point which was last played he was backed around 1.25 at Betfair and I saw he was even 1.17 at BWin. 
 
It seems people betting at Betfair now are not aware of these odds, because some people are laying Kwiatkowski at 1.4 or higher at the moment. So backing these 1.4 or higher will make for a very good trading option. And maybe trading isn't even necessary, because normally Kwiatkowski should win and Ore also got a medical timeout after the second set. So the question is also how fit he still is.

Good luck!
 
An update: The remainder of the match has moved to tomorrow. Some people are even laying close to 1.5., which is even more than double the real odds. Looks like they don't have a clue about those odds because of the matches dissappeared from the bookies till tomorrow.