fintron
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Posts posted by fintron
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Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble?
Ha' date=' this is my favourite bit of his blogFintron that's outstanding![TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD] Horses in full training £30.00 a day yearlings till 31 December £25.00 a day. Frank has and will enjoy training for: ; The very very rich The very rich The poor (but humorous) Gays Lesbians Heterosexsual Bisexual All ethnic groups Gypsies Fascists Communists Nazis The Mafia Religious sects(not The way) [/TD] [TD=width: 50%] Frank will NOT enjoy training for ::; The very poor Do- gooders employees of Macdonalds employees of the BHA Having raced all over Europe for prize money Frank is still finding it difficult to understand the mentality that drives the sport in the UK. It appears that it has become acceptable to race for the disgusting prize money that is on offer at most of the tracks and therefore making it increasingly difficult to bring new people into racehorse ownership. So with this Frank hopes his training fees are fair and give people the chance of owning a racehorse and feeling that once in a lifetime thrill of seeing your horse winning ..... [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: To specialise or not to specialise? Specialisation is definitely the way forward. The way you have to look at it is that the guys compiling the odds are generalists, not specialists. They roll into an office and 8 am or so and leave at 6 pm or so. In that time they have to price up all sorts of muck, jumps and flat, sprints, mile races and staying races. They simply don't have the time to specialise specifically in a certain area; even if you allocate all the sprints to one guy there will be times when that guy is on holiday. So, as a punter, you have to try find your niche and become more knowledgeable in that area than the odds compilers. You need to find an edge and factors that you can identify that point to winners and value that the odds compilers don't tap into, due to them being rushed for time. It might reach a point where you know the horses so well you can price up races very quickly and get a gut instinct on who to back instantly as soon as you see industry prices............
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday October 26th 2.30 Ascot - Fruity O'Rooney 3/1 - this one was sent over the wrong trip on his reappearance and should strip fitter for the outing. Now he's returned to a more suitable trip the cheekpieces magically go back on. He's only 1lb higher than his last winning mark and might just handle the ground better than the Irish raiders.
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Re: Are some trainers blatantly in the pockets of trainers? The bookies attempt to have their cards marked by buying supposed 'information' from stable insiders. The problem is they sell it to that many people that you get individuals that try and then sell it back on via tipping services. Some of the info is garbled crap, while some of it is okay, the guys within the firms will get to know the guys that pass on reliable info and which don't. I'd be gutted if I was an owner and some stable lad was selling the info on to the bookies on how it was working but c'est la vie it seems.
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Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? Apparently, the horse had been flapping in Ireland. Someone sent me the link to Frank Sheridan's blog this morning and he states some very valid points, in between the humour. It is actually a very interesting blog, have a look at the 'training fees' page! http://www.franksheridanhorseracing.com/News.html
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Re: Each way betting Im an each-way punter too. At various times I have tried to do away with it as every time Ive backtested results, I'd make more profit backing win only. But backing win only can lead to long losing runs, you question your methods and can be prone to backing the 'wrong' types. I suppose backing savers or multiple selections in a race is one way around it but its defo a psychological blanket. I'd go down to 5/2 if they were paying 1/4 odds EW or down to 7/2 if paying 1/5 of the odds. If someone else was picking selections for me or I had a system to take away any emotional involvement, I'd go win only.
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Re: British Open~18th-21st July Dunno if it is of interest to anyone but a pal of mine has noticed Bet 365 allow you to multi-up 'to miss the cut' selections. If you have a couple of old boys you are confident will miss the cut then you can bang them in and perm various other players to form the last legs of an acca. Potential big returns from modest outlays. Other firms won't allow multi's in these markets but Bet 365 have done. With regards to tournament outrights, I've backed Branden Grace at 125/1 down to 66/1, currently 66/1 in places, and to be first round leader at 70/1 with Stan James and 6/1 to make the top ten with William Hill. Will admit I know little about golf and am learning, but he performed creditably at the recent Scottish Open, for which he was 45/1, taking Phil Mickelson to a sudden death playoff. 25 years old, he turned pro in 2007. He lacks the major form of the principals, but arrives in decent form. Grace has used the Scottish Open to home his links game, and seems to come on favourably in the putting stats.
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Re: william hill 10/1 on long run EW doubles as well :-)
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Re: BBOTD Friday 8th February 5.30 Wolverhampton Dorothy's Dancing - profile shows capable of put together back to back wins and only narrowly raised for recent win. gives a good account whenever running in 0-60 company. 11/4 Stan James, 1 pt win
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Re: Simonsig suffers set back
Overturn 7/2, Long Run 7/1 and Son Of Flicka 33/1, EW trixie........big ask but think all could shorten if they make it to their planned raceswhat was the 3rd one in the trixie then wayne? -
Re: Simonsig suffers set back
i've already backed Long Run at 8's wayne' date=' it was a big price. I was amazed it wasnt shorter after the KG.[/quote'] I guess Geraghty rides the favourite so that accounts for plenty of it? If the jockeys were switched, Long Run would be three or four points shorter? One of the lads at work has told me to back Son Of Flicka for the Coral Cup again. Has been campaigned with another filthy prep, finishing down the field to get him back down the weights. He's only 2lb higher than when winning the race last year and will no doubt be off for his life if he makes it to the race in March. 33/1 with 365 but as short as 12/1 with the Sponsors. That'll do me for me for a small trixie for a little interest. -
Re: Simonsig suffers set back I tried to ignore ante post Cheltenham betting this year but have caved into temptation. How on earth is Long Run 7/1? He's a previous winner of the race, still improving at eight, and won the King George last time. I can understand why him and Silviniaco Conti are similarly priced, given the Betfair Chase result, but Silvy came into that race with the benefit of a run (hacked up in the Charlie Hall) and Long Run is notoriously rusty first time out - despite the rubbish peddled to the press saying otherwise. How can a horse like Sir Des Champs, whose bubble has burst in Ireland, be 9/2 when Long Run is 7/1? It doesn't make sense. Bobs Worth looks to have an obvious chance and bids to do a Denman, he's classy, he stays's, but if he's generally 3/1 should Long Run really be 7/1?
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Ante-post Arkle favourite suffered a set back ahead of a planned prep run at Newbury this weekend. The results from a trachea wash test came back short of 100 %, which his trainer was looking for to continue running him in the race. The link to the story on the RP is here http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1036448 It just shows how fragile these beasts are. It is only a minor set back, but minor set backs can cause horses to miss races and underperform even if they reluctantly take part. Makes the Arkle somewhat interesting. Although, from a form view, its easy to see why Simonsig is odds on for the Arkle, there is a massive argument for smashing on Overturn now. He's 4/1 with 1/5 odds EW or 7/2 1/4 odds EW. We know he's good enough as he ran a blinder to finish second in the Champion Hurdle last year and this is a race that can cut up badly. Could easily be six runners, and he is one that will relish a small field, where his slick jumping and pace can catapult him away from the closers, like Simonsig up the hill.
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Re: Bent AW Racing.....
Thanks for posting this. I have heard Archie mentioned before, but never sat down and applied it to data. I have done chi square tests before, back in A level Biology, so understand the principals, so how do you apply that to punting results? Can you compare an overall strike rate vs average odds or do you need to work stuff out for each individual bet?To judge, mathematically, how representative your results are, you need to calculate the Chi Squared value for each sample. To do this, Google ‘Archie Score’. This will tell you how likely it is that your results have come about by pure chance. Also, whenever you use a sample of data, there is a Margin of Error associated with the results. The MoE is given by 1 divided by the square root of the sample size. The MoE on your Class 5 and above results is 3.3%. Your true ROI therefore lies somewhere between 24.3% and 17.7%. The MoE on your Class 6/7 results is 3.8%. Your true ROI therefore lies somewhere between 10.3% and 2.7%. -
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th
Or worse still, a rogue tipster cherry picking the most profitable and passing off the bets as their own. Who would have any way of knowing? It happened to RussP before I think.Just a side issue to this thread, I really do hope that before people put their selections up on here, if they are backing it themselves, they are doing so before highliting on here. It seems that every horse that is mentioned on here, shortens up within 20 mins of it being advertised. Get yourself on first, then if you want let everyone know. The bookies must love this thread, dozens of free brains working for them. -
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th 8.05 Kempton Captain Kendall - failed to stay 7f and noticeably weakened in closing stages. Return to 6f should suit and still open to more improvement. Booking of Kirby a big positive. 11/4 Bet 365, 1 pt win
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Re: I've been Gelded.... We've had this discussion before I think. Weatherby's notify the press every week of horses that have died and been gelded in a weekly e-mail. It looks like this (from an email last week)
So if anyone were to publish the details for wider use, Weatherbys would probably be it."List of horses upto and including 15th January 2013" Name,YOF,Sire,Dam,Date Added BEATLEJUICE (GB),2006,BEAT ALL (USA),GOLDEN AUREOLE (GB),14/01/2013 LIVVY INN (USA),2005,WOODMAN (USA),LONDON BE GOOD (USA),14/01/2013 MISSTREE DANCER (GB),2004,BANDMASTER (USA),MISS MATCH (GB),15/01/2013 -
Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 5th February 2.10 Southwell Pipers Piping - disgusting form but back on fibresand today and that might elicit some improvement. 10lb lower than last win here last year and headgear goes back on today. 9/2 Boylesports, 1 pt win
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 2nd February 2.05 ffos las Welsh Champion Hurdle here, and Lanzarote winner OSCARA DARA looks big at 4/1. Oozes class and starting to live up to his potential. was fourth behind Darlan last year and latest win suggests back in the groove. The David Pipe one, Tanarko Emmery, is fav, albeit getting lumps of weight, but this is a whole lot tougher than the egg and spoon races hes been winning. Oscara has good form in the book. 4/1 William Hill, 1 pt win
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Re: Bent AW Racing..... Tony Carroll could be planning to chop it right off at Lingfield tomorrow. Secret Millionaire in the first leg of the sprint series (7/2) and Time Medicean has plot job written all over it in the second division. 13/2 still available, could go off 11/4 tomorrow. EW double on the pair pays nice........
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Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 7.30 Wolves Sir Geoffrey - form figures are not the most appealing but he has dropped to a good mark as a consequence. Yard's runners have been in much better form in the last few weeks, often running above their odds in defeat. 15/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW
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Re: Bent AW Racing..... Beaten. God Bless the hapless Jim Crowley!!!
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Someone needs to go on and develop a sat-nav for these jockeys that keep taking the wrong course. Liam Treadwell has jumped ahead of Brendan Powell in the queue
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Re: Bent AW Racing.....
Corruption in the NH scene is just as rife. Don't want to name names but a certain Welshman is utter filth. I haven't backed a 'hooped' runner for some time either. impossible to know if its off or not. The common denominator is that its the poor racing that they target so, as a punter, I think we just ignore all of the low grade stuff. Its not racing, its a parading of meat at the slaughter house. They gut butchered in the saddle to get them over 3m on heavy ground and if they fail they get sent to the Dalepak factory and turned into a burger. You know its a bad race when the horses have more pieces of headgear on than they have wins in their careerNothing will change i dont think anytime soon to be honest, it does strike me as it nearly always happens on the AW or is that my imagination?
Horse withdrawn due to gamble?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Horse withdrawn due to gamble? Sounds like just the sort of guy you'd love to bump into at the bar at the racecourse, he'd tell it all like it is! Another gem from his page....