aliensyndm
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Posts posted by aliensyndm
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Re: Right Play...? I think you could argue a case for calling a minimum bet on the turn(provided the minimum bet was a low percentage of your stack) to try and catch a queen. If you do and he has a jack...you are gonna bust him. Also you could call a minum bet on river, again provided it's insignificant in relation to the size of your stack. You could be ahead anyway,....if not you get to see his cards and get some information. Obviously you have to be careful you dont get sucked in though. When I say low percentage of your stack I am talking like 2-3 %. Also the guy woudl have to have a stack at least euqal in size to your own to make it worth while calling minimum bet to catch a queen...you need implied odds. The fact he was BB made it far more likely he would call with junk/weaker hand so rememeber that as well.
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Re: NBA Saturday 30/4 Might be worth keeping an eye on in the in running markets for the playoffs on betfair. Certainly some prices that are outta line example.....dallas houston game after 9 minutes I think there were 32 points. Slightly behing the scoring level expected but a long way to go in the game !! The over 198.5 points was trading at 2.9 !! I mean an average of 4 points per min would give 36 points for 9 minutes, and a total of 192. So you can see they have to average just slightly above 4 points per min. 32 points after 9 mins and the over is now 2.9 !!?? I mean surely there is some value in that !!
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Re: Right Play...? OK your initial raise is fine. Now you say on the flop he bets table minimum. I would raise here and find out where you are. Remember you're trying to put him on a hand. How much was your initial raise ? Alot ? A little ? I'm guessing not much as this guy has called with a pants hand. Now the flop....he bets minimum.....I would raise. Hands like AJ, KJ, JQ are in big trouble here. A possible danger hand is J 10. After raising you may find out where you are. If you are re-raised back....does he have J 10 ? (would be a strange had to call a big pre flop raise with tho) Has he called with a small pocket pair and flopped a set ? What does his initial small bet mean ? Weakness ? Or slowplaying a monster ? I would have stuck in a healthy raise on the flop and tried to win the pot there and then. OK the turn is a J. Now he bets minimum again.....now you should only call this bet. If you try and bluff him and represent jacks...he's only gonna call you when he's likely to be beating you. Once you committed 75% of your stack you were pot committed and had to call. This wasn't a bad beat though. This was bad play. All your chips went in when you were behind. I think your first mistake was calling the flop. Here you should raise. You had position advantage as he was first to play. If you had raised and then he called.......he will often check the turn. If he comes out betting the turn after you had raised the flop that's usually a very strong hand so beware. After the jack fell, you should have just called his minimum bet. Now the river comes....if he bets minimum again, you can call. If he sticks in a medium/large bet it's either bluff or he wants paid off. You have to work out which. But you have to recognise situations where you are only gonna get called if beaten. Hence minimum bet on river from him...fine...call. Raise and you are only likley to be called if beaten. Remember a bad beat is when you commit all your chips miles ahead and your opponent catches a very unlikley draw to beat you. Example you have 7s 8c Flop 4d,5s,6h You flopped nut straight and somehow your chips end up all in. Some guy with Ah6h calls you, the turn is Jh, the river is Kh. He's had runner runner hearts and made a flush. 6% chance of that happening. That would be considered a bad beat....but Ive seen FAR worse both live and on the net. Any time there is 2 of one card on the flop be weary. Especially so if it's a card in the "playing zone" like a jack. ie cards people are likely to call with. If you raise a bit with AA and the flop is JJ6 .... some guy moves all in and you call it's not a bad beat, that's bad play. If you raise all in with AA pre flop and some guy calls you and flops trips well then that is a bad beat !
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Re: An interesting question Yeah ie why we are both talking about J6, J7 If've you got a hand like QQ it's going in without a thought, sure he could have KK AA but it's far more likely he doesn't.
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Re: An interesting question OK been thinking more.... With a hand like J6 you are never likely to be very far ahead. Best you can hope for is 10,6 9,6 8,6 7,6 5,6 4,6 3,6 2,6 J,5 J,4 J,3 J,2 But there are alot of hands you are ahead on --- J5 or worse, which is alot of cards. J,5-2 10,9-2 9,8-2 8,7-2 7,6-2 6,5-2 5,4-2 4,3-2 3,2 Ok now hands you are behind on, A,K-2 Q,K-2 J,K-7 Big behind on QQ,KK,AA also alot behing on TT,99,88,77,66, and still some behind on 55,44,33,22 So you look at the times you are behind, how likely they are and by how much compared to the hands you are in big trouble. You're not that likley to be big fav with a hand like 55, nor are you that likely to be big fav with a hand like J6. Which hand is likely to be in trouble the most ? 55 has to worry about any PP of 6 or over - not that many. Whereas J6 has many more hands dominating it, 6Q,6K,6A,J7,J8,J9,J10,JQ,JK,JA and of course 77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA Hence your J6 is more likley to be in ze sh!t so you would wanna pay more to see if it was then ? Hmm am I making any sense yet ? I dunno if I am. 55 is slight favourite to most 2 over cards....and large favourite to a few hands of 1 over card. OK sumamry with a hand like J6 there's more chance it's decent ahead and more chance it's way behind. With 55 the most likely result is you are slightly ahead....little chance you are way ahead, little chance you are way behind. So you are more likely to be putting cash in behind with J6 obviously - but it has the best chance of being ahead also with the most chance of being totally behind. Argh I'm sure I'm contradicting myself ! :wall :wall The more I think I the more I get confused, tell us the answer jezza you cnut !
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Re: An interesting question Well like I said, better than J7 is a call anyway. As I also said.....the amount you pay...has to be relative to the amount you are likely to be favourite if you hence call. With 2,2 when you are favourite it's not gonna be by much so I suppose you wont be paying much to see. In which case yeah you are probably right in it's not worth paying much to see if you are slight favourite....there is an amount of cash which will be mathematicaly correct to pay...but it wont be much. It's not worth paying to see if you are a slight favourite actually is it ? Well 20p perhaps, but the question is the most. Actually on second thoughts the hand that is most likely to be worthwhile is something like 55-77 There;s a reasonable chance you are big favourite ie against 1 overcard, small you change you are huge fav - against 2 undercards, biggest chance you are against 2 over cards - slight fav. Small chance you are against bigger PP - large behind. I mean if I saw 77 I would call straight away without paying extra to see them, but seeing the cards with that kinda hand would perhaps be the most valuable info.
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Re: An interesting question Interesting question. Well if your cards were better than J7 is it a call anyway as there's a slightly more than 50% chance you are ahead anyway. Regardless of whether you actually were ahead here....the maths say there's more chance you are. Hence it's still money in ahead. Hence no need to pay anything. If your cards were worse than J7 by chance you are behind, so you could pay something to see if you are actually ahead. Although it would depend how much. I mean £300 no chance. Say you have J3 and pay £300 to see his cards....there's a good chance he is ahead anyway...in which case you fold - Loss 300. Say you are ahead you have J3 - he has 10 9. You're still not big enough favourite to justify paying £300 quid to see them. Percentage is abotu 54.4 % to you, 45.6% to him. So that's about a 10% advantage. But for £300 you've just donated 30% of the amount you are playing for, hence not worth it. You'd have to work out what is the most likely percentage you are to be ahead.... I mean you are not very likely to be ahead with a hand lke 82 off -- but you could be. If you were and called, how much of the time are you gonna win with it ? You could then work out how much you could pay to see his cards . Having said all that, the hand which springs to mind is 2,2 If he doesn't have a PP you are against 2 overcards(unless he has a 2) - slight favourite most of the time, although there are some exceptions where you are behind - 78s for example. Against another PP you a alot behind. 2,2 is the hand with the least chance of him having an undercard ie no chance, cos he can only have higher cards or 2s. Also when you are against certain over cards, 2,2 is the most behind. 3,3 is also behind to 78s but 2,2 is more behind. There are too many times when 2,2 is not favourite to the over cards. 2s , 2d is behind to Jc , 10h Whereas a hand like 8,8 is always ahead to 2 overcards. OK I'm probably talking shite but I''ll go with 2,2 There's a reasonable chance you are ahead, but it's the most chance of being ahead with the most chance of being behind. 2,5 o isnt gonna beat much but 2,2 could well do. But like I say, the amount you pay has to be in relation to the % advantage you are likely to have if you call.....plus remembering the times when you dont call and fold also has to be counted. Although that's a total cnut calcualtion I aint gonna try and do !
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Re: AFL Rd. 6 Port adelaide available -10.5 at 1.909 at bet365. Can't find collingwood +39.5 anyway though. Best I can see is +36.5 at 1.885 pinnacle or +36.5 at 1.9 at betfair altho after commish thats worse. It will probably change a bit though of course.
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Re: NBA Thursday 28th Oh man, that was a serious close one. I'm glad they nailed the 3 pointer at the end so your +5 bet still won ! I was on miami -2.5 (not after eventing taz will confirm I was on this), I'm so glad I searched and got -2.5 instead of the -3. Makes all the odds checking seem worthwhile. It's annoying when you bust your nut to get a line half a point better and the team win by 30 but games like that make you feel your effort is rewarded ! There were so many ways that bet nearly lost, had NJ missed their shot with 4 seconds left. Nice the luck goes with you for once. Similarly
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Re: Camp Hellmuth - no thanks I love watching hellmuth play. He's a big baby cnut at times but certainly interesting to watch and certainly very very talented ! Sad thing is beacuse of his attitue he may well be remembered for this rather than his exceptional poker skills. He's kinda like a poker john macenroe. I mean you could watch some very good players play poker and be all nicey nice etc.....is that entertaining ? Not really in my book. Or you could watch hellmuth. I know which I would rather be doing.
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Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. Yeah Im almost tempted to risk it but......I mean if I phone and ask them about it they are gonna say like erm what oh sh!t we have to void it. And I fancy seattle to win it anyway, but still. Selling points at bet 365 is a serious rip-off. If only you could sell more points at pinnacle !!
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Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. OK quick example - you can sell points at pinnacle and take seattle -4 at 2.15 Bet £120 quid say on sacremento +7.5 at 1.83 and 100 quid on seattle -4 at 2.15 If scaremento win or or seattle win by 3 or less you get back 120 * 1.83 = £219.60 , loss of 40p. If seattle win by 8 or more you get 100 * 2.15 = £215, loss of a fiver. But if seattle win by 5,6 or 7 you win both bets for a nice profit of £215 or if they win by 4 you still make a profit of £100 Effectively you are risking a 5er to possibly make £215. I'm sure you could tweak the figures slightly to get them in alignment Thing is will bet direct honour the bet I wonder ?
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Re: NBA Tuesday 26th. Seems to be a bit of a pricing error at betdirect I think. Seattle game handicap seems to be -3 ish. http://www.betdirect.net/betdirect?action=go_dd&sport=other&level=TYPE&id=751&ev_id=287450 They have sacremento +7.5 at 5/6 Definitely out of line with the other prices, and you could probably create some sort of arb or give yourself 20/1 on seattle winning by 5,6 or 7 I think, if you sold points correctly elsewhere.
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Re: Really Stupid Question! Yip as Mark says. The all in man gets to see all 5 cards, and can win 50 chips from each player. Hence the pot he is playing for is 200 ( three 50s plus his own 50). Upon this bet being called you gather up the 200 chips and place them in front of player A to show this is all he can win. As soon as anyone folds from the hand they are not entitled to win any chips from any pots. I'm gonna complicate your example now. Say after the flop B bets 150 and both C and D call him. A is all in for 200. Now the turn happens. B bets his remaing 150. C raises all in. D calls. OK you now have to arrange the pots so you don't get confused. Pot 1 is 200 chips in front of player A. He can only win this 200. Everyone else is of course in for these chips. Pot 2 is 900 chips in front of player B. 300 of his own and 300 from C and 300 from D. Player B is in for this 900 plus the 200 in pot 1. Pot 3 is between C and D as they are the only ones who had enough chips. This is 400 chips. 200 from C and 200 from D. Only player C or D can win these chips. OK so everyone is all in and the river falls. Possibilites ? The dealers dream ie either player C or D has the best hand and they take the whole amount of chips on the table as they are in for all pots. If player B has the best hand, he takes the 900 from pot 2 and the 200 from pot A. The 400 from pot 3 goes to who has the best hand between C and D. If player A has the best hand he takes the 200 from pot 1. Now it is between B,C and D as to who collects pot 2. And only between C and D for pot 3. Note here it is possible to have the 3rd best hand and still get come chips back. If player C has is beaten by A and B....but can beat D he takes the 400 chips from pot 3 and only loses 100 chips !! Did that make sense ? Basically you can only win the amount of chips from each player than you have in front of you. If you have 200 chips, you can win 200 from each person and so on. Obviously things can get quite complicated when lots of people have lots of different chip amounts and lots of people are all in and lots of people have different strength hands. Just make sure you place the pots in front of people as you go along to keep it all nice and simple. Can take a while to organise but definitely worth it. Nightmare trying to sort it out in a oner at the end !
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Re: For a few dollars more Do not read PL whilst playing ! You must pay full attention to the game !
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Re: Embassy world snooker If you cover the handicap exactly ie a win of 13-9 and you backed -4 you get your stake money back.
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Re: Bellagio $25,000 Championship Official chip count - 4th Day UPDATE Man that is scary.....I go out on the bubble in casino tournaments, and the guy I pick (joe beevers) manages to go out on the bubble too. I think dave ulliot is in action tomorrow on channel 5.
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Re: ladbrokes, need answer fast. If you qualified via satellite pretty certain money will be lost. If you can't play it, suggest you tell someone you know online your account password etc and let them play it for you if you can trust them.
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Re: Bellagio $25,000 Championship Official chip count - 3rd Day UPDATE I'll go for joe beevers meself.
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Re: Embassy world snooker Someone else could hit a 147. In which case you will not make profit but lose money. There's plenty people there capable of 147s ! That considered there's no way I'd be backing that with o'sullivan left in the tournament. You are effectively backing there not to be another 147.
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Re: MLB - Season Long Yeah cheers, brought up the play by play and it said rain had stopped play.
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Re: MLB - Season Long Anyone any idea what the delay in the st louis game is ?
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Re: NBA Monday. Well san antonio made a mess of that. They were 6 ahead with under 2 mins left. The somehow it's level with 2 seconds left, memphis take a time out and hit a jumper with 1 second to go...no overtime. Der.
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Re: NBA Monday. Please excuse me if I am talking pish. San antonio are 10 behind at half time. I seem to recall san antonio making a habit of being behind at half time and winning in the 2nd half. They are currently 2.76 just to win ie moneyline on betfair. That seems like not a bad bet ? I've not been watching the game hence no idea how they are looking but just on memory from the way their games seem to go it seems like a half decent bet.
NBA Saturday 30/4
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
Re: NBA Saturday 30/4 Yes I am quite disgusted as I was on houston and the over 198 :lol They scored only 16 points in 8 minutes in the fourth quarter. Annoying as at end of 3rd over was available to lay at around 1.21 And houston were of course decent ahead and available to lay short as well but I didn't on either. Normally you don't get the chance, so I suppose I could pretend it's just like normal, but it's not ! My in running point is still decent...I mean you could have layed off after having backed at 2.9 the markets over react when there is alot of basketball left. Same way the snooker markets over react after every shot with many frames to play.