The Saint
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Posts posted by The Saint
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope? Keith - That's very kind and actaully think you are spot on! I have the money to fall back on and could support the family without picking another winner this year so I guess I should try and relax and do what I always have... I guess it's the added responsibility - it really has changed my mindset. Don't seem to have the option of PMing you though which is a shame. Always happy to discuss getting on!
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Re: Bet Types - The Win Single - Any other thoughts? Mathematically, what you say should be correct Trotter - the massive problem can come about when there is a withdrawel and you are left with a win only bet that you might not want! Can go both ways of course and the selection can win. Betfair, of course, will still pay 2 in their place market too. Suck Eggs anyone?!:lol
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope?
Great Read Jimmy - Thanks! And I've even order 'Bounce' as recommended by Fitron to attempt to understand and deal with my weak mind!!! Back in the day when I was on the verge of National Badminton I would get myself into winning positions all the time and 'bottle' it!! It's a real issue with me! Been worth getting involved here again already!!:clapSaint. This Thread is worth a wee read back in your spare time fella. http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/2011-review-124891/ -
Re: Bet Types - The Win Single - Any other thoughts? Cowan - I would say - and I'm doing ALOT on analyasing at the moment - that it would depend on your personal mind set. My past 7 years results would and have all returned a larger return based on win singles... However, I would be happy to leave some of this behind for the lack of stress that I am currently finding that the losing runs are causing me!! It's hard to imagine at the moment that on the back of 8 losers I backed a 20/1 winner, win only!! I don't think I am suited to betting so aggressivly anymore. I also - as you have touched upon - think there is a definate edge to be had backing EW in 8/9 runner races... Todays 515 being a prime example. Mine ran a perfectly sound race in 3rd and I was happy with my analysis deeming that the winner would need the race! You analysed it better than me however and nabbed the winner I notice!! I couldn't possibly see Moral out of the 3 so maybe EW shoud be the play in these circumstance? I also think that people will have a personal 'ceiling' when it comes to win bets. I will never be comfortable punting more than £100 on a win single - but I can see a day when £100 EW would be a possibility. Not sure any of this makes sense but I hope it does!
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope??!!
i had my longest ever run of 7 straight losers ' date=' ouch ! all i did was put the reaserch aside and stats , just went with a gut feeling , 6/1 e/w ok no its not huge but its a small profit off an awful run ! sometime we all just overcomplicate it :wall[/quote'] Can definatly relate to this - since 'having' to turn a profit you can certainly over analyse... This year I halfed stakes on a 3/1 winner due to lack of bottle(Ghostwing) and did the same on one because I'd backed it at 12s the time before off a lower mark(Even Stevens). Tomorrow I am ignoring Clifford's Reprive based on a crap draw. I am finding that too much knowledge is most definatly a bad thing! -
Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope? Kithanga & Cowan - thanks both - makes alot of sense. I probably know the answers and it'll come good I am sure. It's not really going that badly - just being unlucky and it's good to be reassured from someone other than myself sometimes. January/February are always my worst months - I should just bugger off somewhere!! Thanks again.:cheers
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Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope??!!
Am definatly headed that way too! Back to the gym as soon as I shake this man flu!:pukeThe more losers i have, the more i eat. Thats why i have put on 4 stone in 4 years. My weight loss strategy is to get more winners and the weight will drop. :nana -
Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope??!!
a. 37 years old and feeling it! b. My knowledge of gambling is pretty tight - worked on a bookmakers as a Manager back in the day when mental settling was key and Fruit Machines didn't exist. Got out when The Irish Lottery and the 49s became the flavour of the day! Have turned a profit last 7 years. Quit safety net job 2 years ago and although I can still support myself, phychology of it has become harder since having kid and absolutely having to make a profit!!! c. Only bet on Horse Racing, Long Term Football and Speciality Markets if I believe I have an edge. I'd honestly say knowledge is very good! d. God no!!! Never, ever chase!!! If anything I go the other way and decrese stake which is as bad in my opinion!Couple of questions if you dont mind. a.)How old are you? b.) What, in your opinion, is your knowledge of gambling like? c.)What is your knowledge of the sports that you bet on like? d.)Do you "chase"? -
It's been an indifferent start to the year... Whilst I have been happy with my bets on the whole, I have been 'hitting the bar' alot and am suffering a string of placed efforts 4 deep. Losing runs mess with my head and that is my main barrier to more successful punting!! Based on this year alone I'd have been as well off punting Each-Way rather than win only and EW betting would never have been something I would have advised in the past. It may be a blip but with my fragile state of mind I am thinking it may be the way forward and cancel out the feeling of a losing run! (cue next horse winning being backed EW!) Just wondered how you all cope during a losing run - I know 5 isn't really a losing run but placed horses are starting to annoy... My betting bank is definatly big enough for my staking. About 2% per bet. I guess my idea is that 20 losers with 15 placed efforts would massivly effect confidence at win only yet with EW betting and the same results you would still be condident as one winner would turn things around... I wouldn't nessecerily advocate a break as my selections are ok - just not getting their heads in front! And more to the point - I would hate to miss one at double figures that warrented a bet! How do you all cope with the inevitable losing runs? :cry
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Re: BBOTD - Thurs 12 Jan 515 Kempton - Moral Issue - BOG, Hills - 8/1 A somewhat alarming drift on this one which I hate. However, was considering 4s overnight so I guess I'm going to have to plough on in regardless! First run for a new stable last time out after a 55 day absence so I am not unduly concerned by the month long break he needs to overcome today. Was his first run on the AW and I liked how he powered to the line belying his odds of 28/1 in finishing 2nd. The race has worked out ok and produced a good speed figure too. That day Moral Issue was forced to race 3 deep from a wide draw and despite being harshly raised 3lbs for that run I am sure he will outrun his odds today. S B Kelly up takes off 5 and he has almost a 20% strike rate on the AW. Dangers aplenty who have the previous form to win but I don't think Tourism will get a strong enough pace(raised only 1lb for winning last time!!!!! WTF!?), April Fool has never won after such a long break, I wasn't impressed with The Happy Hammer last time, This Ones For Eddie is better at Southwell and I'll be annoyed if Katami River finds the required improvemt to win after finishng 6th only 3 days ago. Happy to dismiss the other 2 - if they win it's just one of those things!!
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Re: Serious Help required..... In the ball park of £50 usually. I woudln't mind so much if Bookmakers restriced you to a score or even a tenner but when they restrict you now the amounts are so pitiful it may as well be an outright ban - we are taling actual pennies of enough to leave them with a liability of £10 on a selection - eg £2 on a 5/1 shot. The culprits are the lot of them - bar none! I have cut out Each Way thieving from my betting to try and prolong the life of accounts but it doesn't help ultimatly. As long as you are beating SP to a reasonable stakes restrictions are inevitable I'm afraid. You don't even have to be showing a profit to be shown the door in my experience...:(
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Re: Betfair - Do they actaully want customers!?!?! I guess they would see it as admitting to defeat! And I would imagine that the big firms still hold out some hope that Exchanges may one day be banned... Let's hope not.
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Re: Serious Help required.....
To be fair - the other half insists that one is hers and uses it for making calls on!! Outrageous! Sorry Paul - my spelling is appalling! Won't so it again!:spank:lol -
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Re: Serious Help required..... My assessment of Bet £3.65 is that they have by far the best tracking software! I have also found that if you bet £50 on any of their Channel 4 offer races they will shut you down very, very quickly. This is a ridiculous offer though and if you know how to play it, it is absolutely guaranteed free money!! They have made it even easier by being best price on TV Races after 10am too!! The best bookie by far for offers but if you dare to try and use em! That's my experience anyway! The game is getting harder and harder - as per usual - will just have to adjust!! As long as there is never a Tote Monoploly I'll be in!
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Re: Serious Help required..... It's a sad state - but I have even backed a few for my normal stake that the Bookmaker in question has been almost the worst price over. I've then laid it off hoping that it won't win and although it costs me money on that bet - hope it pays long term when I do fancy one!! We will prevail!!!!
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Re: Serious Help required..... Yep! I am beginning to regret my decision to move out to the sticks so quickly! Thank you Fitron - have recently aquired a couple of dongles which has helped to be fair. It's become harder since I am trying to combine being 'Daddy Day Care' with a nipper but I really do appreciate the advice. 4 computers, 3 iphones and 2 dongles are not enough!
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Re: Serious Help required.....
In a completely differnet thread. But at least it makes sense now!! - Thank you for clearing it up and thanks once again for your helpful posts."Megalala at the pretend 8/1 with 365 that noone can get on!!!!!"# Thats what you said! Thats my point.. -
Re: Serious Help required..... Thank you Fintron - very much appreciated.
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Re: Serious Help required.....
And your point was.....? Getting on at 8/1 means....?:ok -
Re: Serious Help required..... Ha ha!! Good comeback! Technically you'd have to achieve 15 winners at 7s to make the same profit though! ;)
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Re: Serious Help required.....
Of course! But if I back 100, 10/1 shots and 11 of them win, I'm in profit. If I have to take 7s and the same 11 win I'm way down. I'm sure this isn't lost on you. What point were you making by getting on at 8/1? (you can lay that off by the way if you really don;t like the bet - but then I am sure you checked that first!;))My advice is take whatever price you can get and stop moaning! :D Afterall, the horse has to fekkin win first!!!!!!! -
Re: Serious Help required.....
Do you seriously expect to be making constant profit and not be 100% on Betfair? Such thing doesn't exist unless you have a scheme with people helping you and getting on for you. Or if you just want to bet small stakes. The only option is to be so good that even your Betfair SP returns produce profits. It's frustrating to get your price slashed' date=' but what else can you do.[/quote'] Yep! I think you may well be right. It's just something I've been trying to avoid for a few years now as it is my belief that the margins betwwen being a successful and unsuccessful punter are very slim. -
Re: Serious Help required..... No malice intended here Samba - was just looking for some help or advice. It's my own stupid fault for letting all my accounts run dry at the same time. Was keeping powder dry for March to be honest. Still - was nice of Aidy to be so helpful.
Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Losing Runs, Bad Luck and Lack Of Confidence - How do you cope? At the moment? Ladbrokes only!! It's my own stupid fault to be honest. Not been very proactive in openign new accounts as Jan and Feb are traditionally my worst months by far! Sorting it this weekend!!! I just wish I could keep an account open with Bet 365 for more than 2 minutes! Seems impossible - and I've travelled to inet cafes etc etc but to no avail!!