The Saint
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Posts posted by The Saint
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Re: BBOTD > Friday 21st June 230 Ascot - Heart Focus - 25/1 - VC So if Sandiva is a worthy 5/2 fav, then Heart Focus can't be a 25/1 shot. Beaten 2l by todays fav he gets a 3lb pull today. Not much else to say as I can't know anything about the rest of the field really!
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Re: The Jockey Thread
What is going on in the 3.05pm tomorrow at Ascot? Greatwood is usually ridden by Fallon for Cumani (3 times previously from 5 rides) and he was on board in the Dante. Hughes takes the ride instead (never ridden it before) and Fallon hops onto Fantastic Moon for Noseda. (rode it once before in Breeders Cup' date=' 10th of 14) Looked like a strange thing to happen at first glance. Is this the owners wanting Hughes rather than Fallon?[/quote'] Mr H jocked Mr F off one on the Tuesday too I think.... -
Re: estimate rule 4 question
Take it back - you're right - I need to learn that mental settling died many moons ago for a reason!! :spank£884.24 I think.... Only done it v quickly. Not sure I'd describe that as unlucky myslef! :p I know what you are saying though - no opinion on the Wentworth ride - they just didn't stop in front at all. GL tomorrow -
Re: estimate rule 4 question £884.24 I think.... Only done it v quickly. Not sure I'd describe that as unlucky myslef! :p I know what you are saying though - no opinion on the Wentworth ride - they just didn't stop in front at all. GL tomorrow
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U might well get away with 15p with PP.... GL
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Now I am not for a minute saying the result has been affected or that the result should be altered..... But I have seen alot less go on during the run in and the Stewards last 10 minutes n more!!! As if that was gonna happen!!! (backed Top Trip) Good on Her Majesty - she was grinning like a Cheshire Cat way, way before she crossed the line and really seemed to enjoy it. Couldn't back it on form though - shambles of a race going in but a few coming back to form at least....
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Fcuk me' date=' that woman doing the fashion with Gina is annoying![/quote'] Bin the fashion - just film Gina inbetween races. Job done :p -
Re: Why are the Irish horses out-gunning the UK horses on their turf?
I should probably now delete my less well written (more concise!??!!!!:p), identical post!!! :\The last part reads as a thinly veiled attack on Joseph O'Brien and when you get accused of having a go at him you'll say check the other thread where I've praised him for his ride on Gale Force Ten. ;) I think a different jockey would have won the Leger on Camelot but then would a different jockey have won the Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby on Camelot? As for the initial question I think it is partly down to the large breeding operation in Ireland and I also think the Irish are more passionate about racing than the English, they live it and love it. Most of the top jockeys are Irish and grow up riding ponies, especially the jump jockeys. Walsh, McCoy, Fehily, Geraghty. The trainers have some really good horses to use as a benchmark for their other runners so they can plot out a route for those horses. A small stable do not have those really good horses to use as a marker for the others. Take Nicky Henderson for example, he can work horses with Simonsig, Captain Conan, Sprinter Sacre and figure out just how good his other horses are. I think some of the English trainers have to send their horses out on fact finding missions to see how good they are, test them against other decent horses by sending them racing. The Irish send a lot of once or twice raced horses to the big races (more so on the flat) and go home with first prize. Take Camelot as an example, it went from Leopardstown maiden to Group 1 RP Trophy and then next season went straight for the Guineas, another Group 1 and won. Aidan O'Brien uses familiar routes and that's why I was keen on Kingsbarns for the Derby. That one went from a Navan maiden to the Group 1 RP Trophy too and then picked up an injury. Coach House is thought to be a very decent sort and they would have been able to work him at home with smart horses. If you have a trainer like John Quinn, Ruth Carr, Tim Easterby for example they won't have access to a stable of superstars and they don't get sent the smart sorts that go for hundreds of thousands at the sales so they have no chance against powerhouses like Coolmore. Godolphin get smart horses but Saeed Bin Suroor ruins them. They obviously have a problem with that they don't have a top class sire like Galileo churning out winner after winner, year after year so they have to buy horses in like Dawn Approach and Libertarian and hope one of them proves to be a great success at stud. New Approach isn't doing too badly on the sire front. Sir Michael Stoute can plot a horse when he gets a decent one as we saw with Workforce but he doesn't seem to get the amount of good horses like he used to. Hannon seems to be able to win races with 2 year olds but how many classics has he won in the last 10-15 years? Better horses at stud leads to better pedigrees and more money equals better facilities too. As for the jumps horses and trainers I think the Irish love their jumps racing and do a better job of plotting their way to Cheltenham. Give me Willie Mullins over Paul Nicholls every day of the week but I do like Nicky Henderson. -
Re: Why are the Irish horses out-gunning the UK horses on their turf?
Looking back at that 2,000 Gns, it has to be the best of recent times. No disgrace in losing that on seasonal reappearence. With regards JOB, I think he has been very lucky to be given so many amazing rides on the best horses from such an early age. I personally, do not think he was ready and last season he ballsed up on SNA in the King George and Camelot in the Ledger imho. He may not have won those races but I do feel he could have been closer on both occassions. However, this season, I really think he has come of age. FAR more assertive and talks very knowledgably about his horses and their chances. He certainly wouldn't put me off backing one og his mounts at the moment. The issue of the Irish domination - I put mainly down to breeding. Success breeds success and all that. Personally, I don't like it!! It might be more professional and get better results for the horses and connections but for me, I much prefer a horse to be built up to Group One level so I have a remote chance of seeing it coming!!! The likes of Ruler Of The World and Magician appearing to improve 20lbs and upwards when they hit the group race level does nothing for my bottom line!! Good Luck to them - they certainly look after each other and have a massive following judging by some of the public gambles that go on with theirs.Murtagh rode St Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 Guineas in 2010, went off even money and was clobbered, I think Makfi won that race. If Joseph was on that day, no doubt you would have blamed Joseph? I can't for the life of me see how Camelot could have done any more, he won 6 of his 10 races and was beat by a better horse last two races (Al Kazeem) -
Re: BBOTD - Thursday 20th July 305 Ascot - Just Pretending - 7/1 - SJ Has it all to prove stamina wise but if she does stay then she has the best form on show thus far. Favourite very strong in the market but is underpriced for me although arguably the most likely winner. No JOB on board and maybe that's been factored into the price but if that has, it's incorrect cos he'd never make the weight in any case.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 19th June 305 Ascot - Chigun - 4/1 - Coral Quirky horse but seems to be improving fast and travelled well when winning group race in IRE last time out. Lilly's Angel subsequently franked the form. Taken to provide a winner for the Cecil yard.
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 18th June 425 Ascot - Thunder Strike - 9/1, Hills, 365, Fred & VC A few at big prices I like today so if this one doesn't win, I will hopefully be kicking the cat for putting the wrong one up! Deserted by Mr Hughes, seems to have almost the best proven form in the race and is ridden by Frankie. Looks his best chance of the day. Overpriced based on form alone, I fully expect something to improve past him and Stubbs to beat him. 9/1 is an ok bet though. GL to all - hardest first day I can remember in a long time.
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Re: BBOTD > Monday 17th June 750 Warwick - La Arenosa - 9/1 - SJ, £3.65 If we knew that Shirocco Star was going to give her best running, then on all known form she should be around 4/6 but given her last run, (and like Mince a couple of weeks back in a similar standard race) I'd say 5/2 was nearer the mark. Given that I can't have her on my mind at a shade of odds against. Maybe connections are sick of finishing second and she's cherry ripe today. Fallon is booked and he has a 30 odd % strike rate for the stable but that wouldn't pay the bills on 11/10 shots either. There's not alot for her at Royal Ascot to be fair but if she was as good as she was, wouldn't she be tilting at windmills in the Hardwicke? Don't really know what to oppose her with mind you! Gallipot needs to improve for her reappearence and probably will but I'll chance that SDS has got it wrong and Harry Bentley can continue his good record for the stable on a formally consistent animal who's trainer has been listed as 'unknown' fairly recently. Hopefully she's been hanging out away from the pie shop. Complete guess and could easily finish last. Really is more based on wanting to be away from the top 2 but lays aren't gonna pay enough considering my hapless and hopeless record in BBOTD this year!
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Lovely stuff Jay but if horseracebase is ever down, I think fingers should be pointed at your good self!! GL with it.Doing some research and I'm not sure if this is actually genuine or not, but it seems when Hughes and Hannon have teamed up on favs since 2012, their SR is 48%! Up until June 14th there were 79 wins in 164 rides and ROI is 10%. Just seems unusally high and if true is definitely an angle that we can profit from considering average fav wins is roughly 33%. The pair team up with forecast fav, Professor in the listed 4:00 at Salisbury, today. SR increases to 57% in listed events, although sample size is just 14 runs. -
Re: BBOTD - Saturday 15th June 315 York - Lady's First - 9/2 - Coral Been running in solid Group Races. Consistent animal and drops to listed class today. Can make a case for it being a 3/1 chance and in luei of any decent racing (Hurry up Tuesday!) will have a go. GL to all involved today.
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Oh and btw' date=' that wasn't a dig. We all started low and built up[/quote'] It might also go along way to explaining how some can bet without emotion.... Still, if that keeps one on the winning street I certainly wouldn't criticise it. Doubt defiantly creeps in when the stakes creep up tho. (IMHO)
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Thursday 13th June
Not once said that ^^ It's part of the game - more so than ever now. I don't think the hcapping system helps the sport and I do worry that viewing figures and turnover on Horse Racing is down significantly. I don't have a solution unless you go down the route of banded racing but I don't think anyone wants that. I just take the last 3(runs) into account, with a bias towards the last run when forming a tissue. Was viewing the market with a view to a small interest in laying the aformentioned horse as I believed the morning gamble may have been false and creating laying value. Exchange market showed that this cerrtaintly wasn't the case and I left well alone - only posted to give others an insight and something to watch for but I'm not sure how many people lay on here tbh. Of course there are lot's of gambles that don't come off, but I think there are some that involve such a high level of cash on Betfair etc that they certainly win more often than their odds would imply - easier to see nowadays because we don't have the priviledge of knowing what a Bookie has taken before shortening from 8s to 5s. Not as much as one might imagine I'd venture. If I had 6 months to spare, it would be interesting to monitor volume vs price and see if there is any mileage in a backing system. Unf, I don't!So you don't think gambles should be allowed? I assure you that 70-80% of big gambles go astray, people lose their holes day in day out, yet when a gamble pulls off, the sport is crooked? -
Re: Flat Racing ~ Thursday 13th June Recency Bias? How many runs should/could you take into account do you think? At a stretch, you could see that the horse probably had the ability to win - as Patrick Veitch says, you need to find reasons why the horse is the price it is as opposed to what price it should be - certainly at the lower levels anyway. Personally, I think he looked a different horse today than the one that was 50/1 and 3/1 today. No issue with it personally, as I watch the market Last 5 to 10 - just concerned, as ever, with your average Punter being put away or people not valuing the market as much as they perhaps should! Hopefully they'll still be enough punters coming through in 10 years time who are as accepting about it as you have to be :unsure
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Thursday 13th June 230 Notts - Jubilant Queen - They could not get enough on through the exchanges last 10 minutes. 6th & 8th in Hcaps beaten 16+ lengths aggregate. Goldolphin Animal improved about 30 lengths yesterday too and the only way you'd ever know would be the market. Well done to the connections - didn't back or lay either one but would have certainly laid at the prices on form alone. I'm just worried what happens when there aren't any layers left!!! Said it before, and I'll say it again - form is not the most important thing anymore!!! I'm going back to study Ascot some more!!
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Re: Where's my profit gone? 'CLIQUE'!!!! :p They'll be :spankall round in a minute! Stats men and Value men - it's like puttin cats and dogs in a room together!! :sad
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Re: Where's my profit gone?
In-Running Low of 1.59 - Point proven with a sample of 1!!! :lolPrime example of why the game is harder now than ever - with my methods anyway. 220 Haydock tomorrow - Gran Maestro - won an apprentice hcap last time out - should have won the time before having been blocked all the way up the straight at Newcastle. Same mark tomorrow. I wanted 3/1. Coral go 3/1 - literally 2 minutes later, they go 5/2. I ask for £50 regardless. Offered £10 - rest at 2/1. Now the powers that be will tell me to stop whinging and win, lose or draw tomorrow, if that happens (and it does happen with about 95% of bets I'd like then that's one hell of a difference to the bottom line. 3/1 to 2/1 is over 8% of the book and whilst they won't all win, some of them will! 1 in 2 and a half probably!!! :wall I believe that the edge I once held has quite posibly gone becasue of Bookmaker limits and the fact that more and more people are trying to make the game pay on a FT basis - hence why methodology has to change :( Where I would have been laying off in the run at 1.60 if I take the bet on at 9/4 I'll be laying off at 1.45 - constantly putting myself under more pressure. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
At the 24 hours before the race or whatever it might be, I am not really considering potential ground changes. I will lay the bet off if I believe the ground has gone against my selection come the off and whilst I am sure this means that often 'value' is created elsewhere, I won't often try to find it due to all the changing variables because of the ground change - eg. potential pace, non-runners. Added to which, I will have studied the race on the forecast ground and usually have a short list of 1 - to a maximum of 3 that I think are capable of winning the race. I think I should possibly extend this to 5 in order to back more long shots and have more bets. I like any selection to be within a couple of lengths of the most likely winner on my ratings. As disscussed earlier, given the difficulty of getting on, I think different approaches need to be adapted and they are being worked on as I type! Concentrating on Group class racing, market moves within the last 5 minutes of betting and laying on the whole are all areas I'm looking to expand in in order to stop the rot as such. Whether I'm good for this game in 1, 5 or 10 years time, I do not know but I do know that you have to keep evolving and adapting to an ever changing playing field in order to stay in front. Unless you are solely a Stats Man, so I am told ;)Saint, can i ask a question; There are many factors in the process of selecting a bet as you are well aware and we all have different ideas on which is the most important, for me the ground is a big factor in any form i read, obviously for you its the value price. Because of you 'need' to get value by the very nature you probably also need to bet early and like your example above, 24 hours before the race. Now one of my big gripes with the Racing industry at the minute is the false descriptions of the ground that we get, my point is how can you back a horse so far in advance when by race time the conditions could be totally different and unsuitable? Today i put one up in the BBOTD (this morning as i couldnt get online later and wanted to take part in the comp) it was good to firm and the racing post reporter said it was drizzling but will stop a lunch time. In my reasoning is stated the horse must have good ground, (pulled up on Gs/Sft last time). Anyway turned the TV on at 3pm and find its Soft going so no bet and the horse - guess what - pulled up, after being well backed as well! So do you take the going into consideration? if the ground changes do you lay it off, or does the value become elsewhere? I would sooner miss a point or two and have a solid bet than knowing i'm beat before the start. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Before I answer that can I just ask you' date='how many times (rough average %) have you picked a single horse not backed it because the price is lower than your tissue and the horse has then romped home, just a rough estimate 5% 10% 15% whatever[/quote'] Of the bets I leave due to not being able to get the price I want that have subseqently won....? It's honestly a guesstimate - 15% (based on average BSP - I think I take your next point! With regards to being shut down - I think that Bookmakers have to protect themselves as there is no doubt there are plenty of arbers out there and if you tend to beat BSP you are chucked in with them. I don't know what basis your stats are based on but if it involves favourite stats then I guess it's easier to sneak under the radar as many a mug punter will ironically be betting on the same horse! A further point to the stats backer! There are ways forward I am working on and continuing to pursue. Laying is on the increase and as far as I can acertain, there is still value to be had at the highest level of racing - and dare I say - less corruption. I don't want to get into the pitfalls of account closure on here again though - it's been done to death. Nothing can or will be done about it - am just pointing out a reason why the 'value' approach may be suffering. -
Re: Where's my profit gone?
Well it's variable to an extent isn't it? I mean obviously I am just trying to continue a debate as opposed to starting an argument but Frankel would beat Kauto Star over a mile 100 times out of 100 so even 1/20 would be value in this instance. I DO think you stats guys hold some advatages over the so called 'value' seekers. The post above highlights the problems we are up against for one and the emotional detatchment must be easier to achieve. I've always been an arogant pup and guess over the long term think I can price up a race better and more accurately than the Bookmakers. It's proven in fact! Trouble is, I can't exploit it anymore because they don't take a bet at decent prices and the value(or my perception of it) dissappears in literally minutes and I don't have the accounts or the time to exploit the mistakes I can see as plain as day! ** Possibly what I should be doing, in light of the above, is monitoring the market moves on the horse up to the off and acting accordingly. Only way I can see of getting an edge back and getting a bet on at the sufficient stake. But what do you do if and when it's ducked under the price you wanted?!2 total different things 1 is fixed ratio where as the other is variable Under the fixed ratio (tossing a fair coin I might add) a blind man on a galloping horse could see that the 6/4 is the one to chose Where as in a horse race with multiple outcomes in a 1 off event never to be repeated EVER it would always be better to pick the horse with the best statistical chance of victory
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Particularly pleased for you Jay..... Especially given that I was all over the 2nd at 3/1 and the 4th (EW) at 25/1.... It's been one of those meetings!! :unsure