The Saint
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood)
The Saint' date=' looks lie you got it right yesterday in the Gold Cup, well done. I wasnt on Mount Athos myself and it was a curious ride. Brown Panther was impressive on step up to 2m and pleased for Kingscote also who is maturing into a good jockey.[/quote'] Glad someone noticed! :D -
Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood)
Fcuking animals! 315 Goodwood - Brown Panther 15/2 @365 & Number Theory 50/1 @365 If Mount Athos returns to his best form of last season then he'll most likely win. On this seasons form though, it's gonna be a massive bunch finish so am happy to play at bigger prices. I'm sure I am cursed :(245 Goodwood - Thunder Strike vs Miracle Of Medinah - Match Bet, Evs - William Hill MOM beat Thunder Strike over 8l last time out. The time before that Thunder Strike didn't run as well at Ascot as he had done at Epsom. Granted, opposing Richard Hughes and a stable in form could make me look stupid but I haven't heard a decent excuse or reason why TS should find 16lbs worth of form to turn over an underrated, less fashionable horse. Maybe the quirky course will help TS find his best form but if it doesn't then RH won't want to expand any extra energy in the finish. Regardless - I think MOM is the better horse. Same Bet with similar argument, Thunder Strike vs Jallota available too. -
Re: BBOTD 1st August 345 Goodwood - Souviens Toi - 8/1 - Bet 365 1/4 of the odds with the above firm so they would be the ones to use if I could! 2/1 to place is massive considering the true odds are closer to 11/10. Added to whiich, you'd get a free bet if she won - oh for a level playing field. Dead 8 going to post as it stands and I see it between the top 3. Wild Coco has overcome an absence before and Elik is unexposed in the context of this race. Souviens Toi isn't the most likely winner but is consistent and arguably improving this season - all be it very marginally. Dissappointed me here on seasonal reappearence but will put it down to being ring rusty! Hopefully BP run well in the Goodwood Cup(will stamina hold out?) which may cause the odds to tumble given that she chased him home last time out.
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) S Da Silva.... That's 2 from 71 rides around Goodwood over the last 5 seasons. Maybe it's just one of those statistical blips but for someone of his ability it's getting a little silly!!
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Miracle Of Medinah, Jallota - 10/1 General, 12/1 General I'm not a massive fan of 2yo races - they can make you look very stupid and I made a complete balls up of yesterdays when oppossing the Hannon thing. Regardless, when they do go to plan they can provide decent returns. I think the favourite is the most likely winner of the race but I do feel his price is based on what he might achieve as well as what he has achieved. Best horse in the race - yep, but too short @ 6/4 that Slybet are currently offering. Thunder Strike and Sayeer didn't show their best last time so I will probably take the 2 above against the fav.
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Thunder Strike vs Miracle Of Medinah - Match Bet, Evs - William Hill MOM beat Thunder Strike over 8l last time out. The time before that Thunder Strike didn't run as well at Ascot as he had done at Epsom. Granted, opposing Richard Hughes and a stable in form could make me look stupid but I haven't heard a decent excuse or reason why TS should find 16lbs worth of form to turn over an underrated, less fashionable horse. Maybe the quirky course will help TS find his best form but if it doesn't then RH won't want to expand any extra energy in the finish. Regardless - I think MOM is the better horse. Same Bet with similar argument, Thunder Strike vs Jallota available too.
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) With reference to Mount Athos in the 315 - If you absoluely knew that he was going to run to the form when he either won a York Hcap by 4l off 108 or stuffed Brown Panther by 3 n change then he'd probably win today. I'd make him a 5/2 shot and he'd therefore be worth a bet at 7/2 or the 4/1 on offer this morning. For me though, I've not seen that level of form since. The Gp 3 he won at Chester was vs 2 trees, a couple of horses I could outpace and a rival from AOBs that had run appallingly during his previous run and has not been seen since. On the level of form he is showing this season I'd think he is around a 7/1 shot and if you believe that he won't be back to his best today then it makes this race almost compulsory to bet in as value must be elsewhere! NOT saying that he won't win or can't win - just that he's not shown his best form yet this season. The other thing that would concern me would be that it is well established that his long term target is the Melbourne Cup. If he wins this handsomly, the hcap mark goes up and his chances in the MC go down. Do connections want that? On the other hand, does he need his rating to remain consistent in order to make the cut for the Ozy race? Not looked at entries and not inclined to do so. I'll be backing at least one against him today given the odds on offer but good luck to all that are backing him... WHY do I say that!??!?!? Good Luck if I'm not backing in the race - but I AM!!! Good Luck in another race that I'm not involved in!!! ;)
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July
& if Lanark is overpriced then I guess RC must be too at 66/1 or whatever he is on the exchanges. Surely not good enough though....340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long.... -
Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long....
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood)
Toronado it is then!! 4.1 & drifting.....305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are and have been best price over DA all morning so they are either dead against it or are after some severe publicity.... If there were 8 going to post then DOW would be a fantastic EW bet. Still might be but 8 runners would have been nice. Has been as high as 7.2 on the exchanges and that's probably the price I'd want in order to get involved but it's not forthcoming as yet. In fact, I think Gregorian and Trade Storm are both too big a price too - that having been said though, I don't think they are good enough to challenge the front 2 and it's unlikey that the front 3 in the betting all fail to give their running. For interests sake, Dawn Approach 9/4 Toranado 5/2 D of War 4/1 Gregorian 11/1 Trade Storm 11/1 Leitir Mor 40/1 Reply 350/1 That's to 100% roughly. Won't be laying at these prices because I don't have to! Hope Dawn Approach and Toranado provide a great spectacle for the sport - it's the most likely outcome by far. I just don't think it's quite as likely as the market would have you believe. No bet at this stage for me - Good Luck to all that are playing though -
Re: The Jockey Thread
Watched this with an interest and I agree Secret Number should have done better. SDS had a shocker and let something in on his outside 2f out - at that point he was fecked and it was a case of hoping he got the breaks. He rides a 2yo later that I think is overpriced. I will probably back him but SDS's record around here is SHOCKING!!!! Around 3% which for one of the best Jocks about is pretty poor!! :( Can't give an opinion on who would have won as I've not paid attention to a replay as yet :unsureIf Secret Number had a clear run, the rest were playing for 2nd, simple as that. Hampered three bloody times and also a poor ride from Silvestre. You watch hughesie in races like this, he sticks to the outside turning from home more times than not. Key to goodwood is stay out of trouble, De Sousa finished 5th on the best horse. Poor ride from Buick too, but Secret Number was the real loser. -
Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are and have been best price over DA all morning so they are either dead against it or are after some severe publicity.... If there were 8 going to post then DOW would be a fantastic EW bet. Still might be but 8 runners would have been nice. Has been as high as 7.2 on the exchanges and that's probably the price I'd want in order to get involved but it's not forthcoming as yet. In fact, I think Gregorian and Trade Storm are both too big a price too - that having been said though, I don't think they are good enough to challenge the front 2 and it's unlikey that the front 3 in the betting all fail to give their running. For interests sake, Dawn Approach 9/4 Toranado 5/2 D of War 4/1 Gregorian 11/1 Trade Storm 11/1 Leitir Mor 40/1 Reply 350/1 That's to 100% roughly. Won't be laying at these prices because I don't have to! Hope Dawn Approach and Toranado provide a great spectacle for the sport - it's the most likely outcome by far. I just don't think it's quite as likely as the market would have you believe. No bet at this stage for me - Good Luck to all that are playing though
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Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System 3 Legs is banned m8 - have an email if u want it. He's a stats man through and through though and as much as I have disscussed many aspects of racing with him, we are too far apart on some things to work together. You can't PM until you have 50 posts though so get posting!!! :ok You are right about the market being very informative at most levels of racing for sure and that's why I've larely stopped playing at that end of the spectrum!! There are some good threads on here that have alot of worthwhile info but they will tend to get lost due to the tipping threads and alot of things have been said before. I'll find some later if I have time and you're still here! ;)
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 305 Goodwood - Professor - 9/1 - 365, Hills So I am told it's lashing it down @ Goodwood - difficult enough course as it is!!! :( Mildly annoyed about this and the fact that Aljamaaheer wasn't aimed at the Sussex because I may have taken him to cause a shock at around 16/1 and he would have been penalty free - would have given us 8 runners in the Sussex too. Not sure soft ground is gonna help this ones chance and I think that could go against Producer too. 3yo's have a great record in the race having produced 46% of the winners from 31% of the runners since 2003. With that in mind Garswood may go well but had no excuse in the Jersey which is a Group 3 so I'll chance Professor at the odds. Has a bit of Selkirk in the breeding and has won on good to soft already so may not be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions. Looks a tiny horse but still improving and has a good draw.
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Fracsoft.com but it costs....
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 28th 405 Pontefract - Arsaadi - 13/2 - Hills, Ladbrokes Poor strike rate but ran well in the Hunt Cup and then behind Galacian lto. Galacian franked that form yesterday in winning a valuable hcap and I'm not sure the market has taken that into account. Haggas stable also in rude health. Trade Commissioner just behind in the Hunt Cup and has a winning chance but I'll want a few ticks bigger before getting involved whilst Mont Ras is also one I'll consider if he goes a little bigger - is a course and distance winner and if on a going day, sees his races out well - I fancy he finally won a tad cosy last time out. Of the rest, Gabrial has the ability to win but isn't straightforward enough for the 9/2 on offer and whilst Aesop's Fable has the best past form, you can keep the 3/1 or whatever the Bookmakers chaps are trying to pedal until he shows it for his current stable. The rest seem outclassed to me although there was a flood of money for Fire Ship around midday - no clue who tipped him up - Pricewise Extra perhaps.
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Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 27th of July
:clap Very well done m8 - Mr Hindsight says I should have just kept it simple and laid CDA :sad 9.4 Betfair SP!!!!!!!!!15.50 Ascot: Novellist @ 7/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w + Red Cadeaux @ 33/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts e/w Eight starters, so best probably conditions for each-way betting. Cirrus Des Aigles looks a worthy favourite and will be hard to beat if back to his best, but I think he was quite convincingly beaten by Novellist in France lto, and the German horse looks overpriced on that evidence but as well due to the fact that he's a multiple Group 1 winner over 12f, and while he would do well with some cut in the ground, the good surface is absolutely fine too. Johnny Murtagh booked, I expect him to go close. Red Cadeaux is a Group 1 winner over 12f and while he might be a bit short of class compared to a couple of these I think he'll be competitive and has a better chance to go close than the price suggest. He was poor lto here at Ascot, but he was so impressive at Meydan, he won the Hong Kong Vase last year and if he find back his form thanks to the little break, then he's not out of finishing in the money. -
Re: BBOTD Sat 27th July 2013 350 Ascot - Very Nice Name - 25/1 - Bet 365 This price is gonna go so happy to elaborate in a sec! Has form that ties n with the pricipals but is about 5 times the price!! Too big. Has to prove Meydan run wasn't a fluke but at 25/1, I'm happy to take that chance. Am fully lining myself up to look very stupid here but I cannot see why the 'best horse in training' is a 6/4 shot. Cirrus Des Aigles is in my 10-to-follow, I've traded all over him at the 7/4 that was available this morning and has the best form available by about 5 lengths!! However, I can come up with a few reasons he might not win including a somewhat pathetic reappearence, he's better over 10f, he's better on much softer ground and he was injured over the winter - Camelot anyone!? Can't have him on my mind at 6/4. Plenty of Bookmakers offering money back if 2nd to CDA so they obviously don't overly fancy it either. Oh - and he's 7yo ffs!! TO be clear, this is not to say he can't or won't win - I just think the price is wrong. There are at least 3 I would like to oppsose with at the current available prices. The above(VNN) finished behind SNA at Meydan - about 3 1/4 lengths without looking. Dunaden was just in front I think and showed that form to be concrete when finishing 2nd to SNA in the Corination Cup @ Epsom. Dunaden then finished just behind Novelist in CDAs useless appearence run so on that form line he's virtually the same horse as the 2nd favourite but is/was available at 5x the price. Universal and Ektihaam are both overpriced in my humble opinion but there is probably a danger they could take one another on. Couldn't put you off either one at the prices and both could trade low in the run. I can't back Hilstar at a price that is somewhat based on potential but you have to respect the fact that MS has supplemented the horse at a massive cost. Not convinced by the 3yos as yet so that's a line through Trading Leather and Red Cadeaux usually finds plenty good enough at this level. Good Luck to all as always.
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p.s the 20% is minimum' date=' if it were a 15 runner maiden with a lot of newcomers I might go 30%, 35%, etc given the uncertainty. The other consideration is that if I like the shape of the race and think two really stand out and I'm confident I'd back both if even marginally above my price. If it's a proper tricky race and I've got doubts I mostly only back one (two or more only if they're way over priced) as I don't want to reduce my overall odds percentage in a race where I'm not sure I'm right[/quote'] Yep - got it. I like that you maintain a level of flexibility - having said that, the only Maidens you'll find me involved in are ones with markets that go something like 1/3, 4/1, 8/1, 25/1 bar with 8 or 9 runners! They're few and far between nowadays :( - Flexibility is something I don't have due to trying to take any subjectivity out of the game. Probably doesn't help in some aspects but again, emotionally, it keeps me on the right path. I'm largely a robot nowadays! :)
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Yep - similar approach - just differing a little on staking. Out of interest, I guess you are treating the 20% on top of your tissue as in the 4/1 shot, you'd be looking to secure 4.8/1 I use 5% but that's 5% of the book. So if I make a horse 4/1(20%), I'll want to achieve just over 11/2(6.7 exchange odds I think - which is around 15%). I often think I'm too tight and have no idea which method would work best. As long as they both do!! Back to EW - apologies for hijack!Yes, understand. Don't want to hijack the EW thread but ..... re backing more than one rather than EW I'm finding that's working better for me now and the staking I have avoids some of problem in your last post. I currently narrow down to those I'm willing to back, price entire race and back one or more if above by 20%+. Usually one. Usually my first or second fav. I stake to odds % with occasionally little more when price is way out. It's working well for me at the moment. Theory being that as long as I'm sticking with those with good chance and consistent on stake and safety margin and reasonably acurrate with my odds I should come out ahead. Only been trying it for a month or so though. Time will tell but promising so far as lower stake going on chancier types but have freedom to increase or back two or three if needed. Odds fluctuations help as in theory if I fancied all field and they all hit my value price at some point im winning Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum -
Re: Each way betting Thanks K - that makes perfect sense now. Your above is intersting - concerning the 6/1 shots. My personal approach in this situation would be to back all 3 of them (EW too!!) for my full stake. I think most seem to split their stake for the race amongst the 2 or 3 selections they fancy or consider value. I don't do this becasue I'd almost feel robbed when one does go in. You are, of course, more likely to back the winner of any given race if you back 2 of the field or 3 of the field as opposed to one so I try and play up this advantage. If your prices are right and you're getting enough of what you consider 'value' then I don't feel the stake should be split to take away some of your percieved advantage. The issue I AM having at the moment is what time of day to place the bet and/or consider which selection is value. Today in the 345 I was considering 2 but despite the prices I wanted being available all day, it wasn't in the last 10 minutes of betting on the exchnages when I have to bet at the moment. Mathematically/long term I should leave it but when they do go in they sting like a b****!! Oh - the one that I left was given a crap ride by Mr Hughes so it tuened out ok but obviously one doesn't remember those as much as the ones that were left!!! Records show the ones where value is gone are still showing a profit. Power of the market I guess...
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Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 345 Ascot - 340/1 Sweetnessandlight....?! Can't win surely but I've seen many, many worse at this price..... 4th to Dank a few runs back??! Or not..... :$
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Re: Each way betting I may have been unclear... What I mean is that ANY winning/profitable set of results will be better off as WIN only as opposed to EW. I mean obv not if a punter hits 100 2nd places in a row but that isn't likely. Don't get me wrong - I DO back EW because I am phychologically too weak to back Win Only. Through Royal Ascot I was a pittence up because I backed EW. I'd have been miles down win only but long term over a season I'm confident win only will pay more - just not convinced it's best for me!! In your example above - I must be misunderstanding.... £2 win at 20s is £42 - agreed. £1 EW is £27 isn't it? U may have a set of results coming in given the selections 'true chance' but I'm not at liberty to say! ;)
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Re: Each way betting With most of the horses I back, I don't think they are the most likely winner in the race because I'm picking what I consider to be overpriced horses as opposed to the most likely winner. That having been said, I'll only back anything that I consider to be within 7lbs of the most likely winner. There is no set of long term profitbale results that will show as good a return betting EW than win only but it's about the phychological blanket that EW provides and maintaining confidence as opposed to maximising profit. It's well proven I don't handle losing runs well - this can lead to not backing the 33/1 shot that shoots your bank through the roof or doubting your own methods and ability. It makes no Mathematical sense if banks are unlimited and the money means nothing to you and therefore has no phychological effect on you. Betting £2 at a time for example, it would be alot easier to go 'win only' all the time than if you are faced with £100 EW or £200 win. Hope that makes some sort of sense!! I'm doubtful :(
BBOTD - Friday 2nd August
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD - Friday 2nd August 450 Goodwood - Ollie Olga I can't recommend you a Bookmaker for this bet because Betfair SP is highly likely to be considerably bigger than the 20s and 18s on offer from the Bookie chaps. Has some ability hiding in there somewhere and actually beat Sky Lantern as a 2yo. Showed up better last time out at Sandown and was carrying a 6lb penalty that day too. Horrible race to bet in really. The Gold Cheongsam would be another that came back to form last time and is a nice price at 10s but whether or not that performance is repeated is anyone's guess. 28/1 with 32Red if we can use them, SP if we can't.... :(