ken678
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Posts posted by ken678
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Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Lang Shining - 7.05 Fontwell - 5pts ew Ladbrokes Jaimie Osborne made his name as (an occasionally controversial) jump jockey and has done well training but mostly on the flat, especially the all weather. He likes a tilt at the ring from time to time though and this might be just one of those. Having run now the requisite number of times to get a handicap mark it comes here with sufficient flat form in the book to justify a win and I am taking the view that Jamie is not spending Friday night at a gaffe track, far from home, for no reason.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Sorry didn't put race on - its the 7.15 this evening at Bangor
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Re: BBOTD Friday 29th April Lay SWEET IRONY at 1.27 Betfair (£82 available to lay 1t 1.26, £154 @1.27) - 1.20 at Skybet. Can't believe the price of this. I was actually looking at tipping (to win) JonJo's new recruit from Ireland - Abnaki - at about 5's with bookies, 9 with Betfair. At the prices I'd prefer to lay the fav - and have all the others running for me too - on the face of it Melteme is not totally without a chance and JJ hasa second runner (how often do we see the second string "suprisingly" pop up at a gaffe track?) The fav is an absolutely crazy price I think.
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About the only benefit I've yet found of getting old is that you have seen most things before. I can certainly remember any number of "red hot certainties" which were nailed on to win the guineas ....and subsequenty didn't! Frankel does appear to be an exceptional animal but betting is all about numbers. He almost certainly will be beaten some time - and at a price likely to be worse than 1/2 the maths, if not the formbook, is on our side. Not much has to go wrong on the day (going, crowd, trouble in running) to make that look like the sort of price that provides the bookies with their Rollers....we will see!
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Re: Epsom 4th June 4.05 Epsom - Marie De Medici - ew - 66/1 We had a 66/1 winner, albeit subsequently disqualified, of the first fillies classic and I think there is a sporting chance of a similar sort of price in the second. The Johnstone yard has, over recent years, earned the right to be classified as amongst the very best and anything from there deserves attention.. The selection has been brought on slowly and it is interesting that this will be the filly's first go over 12 furlongs – a distance which both breeding and running suggest will suit. Obviously at 66/1 the thing is no certainty to say the least – but it does offer tremendous value.
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Re: Ripon 2nd June Red Fantasy - 8:40 Ripon - LAY - Betfair - Available £[email protected], £[email protected] With a beautifully bred newcomer from Cheveley Park and an unraced Johnston runner I think the odds are simply wrong. The horse has an obvious, but not overwhelming, chance on what it has done and you always respect Hills' runners - especially when the yard is in good nick, but not at 1.43!
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Re: FONTWELL - Wednesday - 2nd June 3:35 Fontwell -Regain Du Charbonneau - 15 BetFred ew "Regain Du Charbonneau continues to frustrate supporters" says the sporting life but it is getting nibbled at today and despite being disappointing at times has the form in the book to win this - or at last go close
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Karasakal - Fontwell Park: 3:00 - LAY - SP What a time to be away ill!! Have espoused the cause of laying "silly" prices here at length before and it did nothing for my recovery to see some of the hotpots at Cheltenham turned over - and the (was it?) 1/16 Nicky Henderson loser shortly before nearly transported me to the promised land. And now the over-winter Derby fav out ....ah 'twas ever thus. This Fontwell race is not quite Derby standard but at forecast prices (odds on) the selection is a false price Its best form is in the mud and it has possibly carefully nursed Twiston-Davies opponent in the field. New to jumping fences too so you are taking a lot on trust if the thing is anything like the 4/5 forecast
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Re: Rugby - 6 Nations England v Wales: Corals - 9/1- Hartley anytime tryscorer. Quite keen on an England win but so too sadly are the bookies - the prices don't appeal at all - either straight up or handicap. England's chances have been boosted enormously by the Welsh front row absentees - they will be missed and though Flutey will be missed by England the even bigger change in the centre is Hook playing. Lovely player - and typifies what all Welsh rugby was( pre-Gatland) about. Great skills and will do some eyecatching things - but usually amongst them some mega-b***ks which gifts the other side. You can't do that at this level. The change Gatland has wrought with Wales is, I think, one of the most impressive performances in modern coaching in any sport. He has reminded them (and the Welsh need reminding of this often) that forwards win matches - you can have the greatest backs in the world - but if they don't have the ball you don't win. (As a fervent rugby fan I often annoy my Welsh friends by posing the question how many matches their great Gareth Edwards/JPR Williams/Barry John plus plus plus side would win- with modern technology. The psycopathic Welsh locks of the time simply would not get away with the "softening up" (charitably put!) that went on in the first 10/15 minutes of every game in those days. Gatland knows that though. End of waffle. Hartley is an aggressive little b**g*r in the Brain Moore mould (but not as good (yet?)) - and though I wouldn't have the life savings on it 9/1 to burrow over from 2 yards at some stage at least approaches value in an event where I think the bookies are being particularly mean!
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1.30 Sandown - Binocular - LAY Betfair 1.20 (£799 available at 03.42) 2.35 Sandown - Punchestowns - LAY Betfair 1.30 (£4382 available at 03.42) Have expressed my views on very short priced things before. Both of these should win but the prices? I think it highlights it even more if you think the DOUBLE is barely 1/2 and they have 20 obstacles to negotiate with decent opposition for Punchestowns - and with Binocular a season that has not gone well - though the opposition appears extremely moderate in his case. Both may well win - but at these prices I'd prefer to be the layer not the backer.
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Re: Cheltenham Sat 30th Jan 4.20 Cheltenham - Stradbroke - BetFred 16/1 (ew) Fond memories (could have been even fonder!) - backed it at Cheltenham last year and finished 2nd at 66/1. The horse likes the mud (significantly better than on faster ground) and has every chance today in my book. Would prefer (oviously) a bit less weight but think its in with a good shout.
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Re: Cheltenham Sat 30th Jan 2.05 Cheltenham -Bet 365 - Nycteos 8/1 (ew) Tempted to pick this simply for the novelty of being able to back a Stewart/Nicolls horse at 9/1!! Seriously though there are more cogent reasons. Nicholls has got where he is for all sorts of reasons but one common thread I think with the top trainers, is that they don't regularly over-face and disappoint their horses. It would not be running if it were seen as a hopeless case and though recent falls/UR over hurdles doesn't inspire confidence it ran well for a long way in top class Irish chase the other day.
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Re: Uttoxter - January 30th 4.10 Uttoxeter - Midnight Diamond - 28/1 (ew) Bet 365 Same reasoning (wight wise) as above. But additionally the horse's only win in plenty of attempts, was in the mud at Bangor three years ago - and it has other decent runs to its credit on soft/heavy ground. Upped in trip too may help
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Re: Uttoxter - January 30th 3.00 Uttoxter - Nomadic Warrior - 40/1 (ew) SportingBet When its heavy at Uttoxeter its heavy so I'm looking at the bottom of the handicap. Nomadic Warrior gets up to 19lbs from the rest and has (again if you go back far enough) bits of form, which entitle it to at least the chance of a place - and that weight may help. The yard must think something of the horse - they are consistently running it in a better grade than it apparently "deserves" so maybe today is the day.
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2.30 Uttoxeter - Diddly Dee - 50/1 (ew) BetFred Calazghe apart this is a poor race event for irs type. If you ferret about long enough Diddley Dee has as good form as any of the others so Fred's 50/1 looks to good to miss to me
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Re: Wolverhampton 29th Jan (AW) (Twilight) Mrs Slocombe - 7.40 Wolverhampton - 25/1 (ew) Ladbrokes Has bits of form over this trip the yard seems to have got it wrong in trying much longer distances. Appears to have had a little support in places so fingers crossed
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Re: Lingfield 29th Jan (AW) 4.30 Lingfield - Yawary - 5/1 (ew) Coral As the Post says a pretty poor race. Unless the Salaman runner has a bit up its sleeve I would have thought that the selection has a real good chance - in which case 5/1 (free bet if placed) looks generous
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Re: Chepstow 29th January 2.55 Chepstow - Ethiopia - ew - Stan James - 14/1 Thought I'd found a real good longshot here and a bit disappointed at the price. On the other han confirms that people other than me think it has a very real chance - especially with the extra 10lbs taken off. Last run (in better race) highly encouraging
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Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010)
BU****ER - 50:50 shout on the penalty - and its gone to Egypt in 39 mins - algeria man sent off. Maybe he'll even it up but.........3 yellow one red already... abandon!!Algeria v Egypt - 9.5 - Paddy Power - Algeria to score from penalty Been plenty of real time draws already and these teams are well matched so 3.25 looks good. Very tempted to go for the red card too - about even money I reckon - but priced at 2.8. Decided in the end I need a decent price winner so going (for small stakes) for Algeria to score from penalty, -
Re: Kempton 28th Jan (AW) (Twilight)
Silly b****er (me that is) quite a nice ew shot down the pan - as you can tell from the write uo it was meant to be Conncellor - boo hiss spit!Bet 365 - Stand Guard (ew) 12 - 7.25 KEMPTON Ran quite well last time after recent lay-off and it has won more often over todays trip (of a mile) than teh 7f of last time. At the very least it will brighten the unsaddling enclosure if the divine Steff gets it to run into a place -
Re: Kempton 28th Jan (AW) (Twilight) Bet 365 - Stand Guard (ew) 12 - 7.25 KEMPTON Ran quite well last time after recent lay-off and it has won more often over todays trip (of a mile) than teh 7f of last time. At the very least it will brighten the unsaddling enclosure if the divine Steff gets it to run into a place
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Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010)
Hadn't seen that. I think with the history red cards are very likely - and 5/6 looks good(ish) to me. If you could gt 14s or better on the whole thing being abandoned before the end I'd take that!Does anyone think a booking before 24th minute is value at 5/6 in the Algeria Vrs Egypt match??? A was just thinking this might b better value than the 4/6 on Egypt to qualify? -
Re: Africa » MTN Africa Cup of Nations (10-31 jan 2010) Algeria v Egypt - 9.5 - Paddy Power - Algeria to score from penalty Been plenty of real time draws already and these teams are well matched so 3.25 looks good. Very tempted to go for the red card too - about even money I reckon - but priced at 2.8. Decided in the end I need a decent price winner so going (for small stakes) for Algeria to score from penalty,
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Re: Ffos Las - 28/1/10 Praxiteles - 3.5 Bet 365 - 1.55 Ffos Las Not many Stoute winners end up hurdling and though the horse has obviously had problems (off the track for 26 months) it ran well enough on its firat attempt over obstacles the other day. Eyecatching jockey booking
Jump racing Fri 29th April
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Jump racing Fri 29th April 6.45 Bangor - Gorge -Sportingbet 14/1 - ew I confess I've never heard of Mr Cosgriff the trainer & don't know anything about the horse bar its last two runs. It must have shown something somewhere in the past though to be in this handicap at 11-10lbs, second top weight. In fact its last run 11th of 21 in a big handicap at the National Meeting reads well in the context of this race so I feel inclined to venture a couple of shekels each way. Well done re Petite Margot - nice pick