thisempty
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Re: Progressive staking
I never said i wanted to simulate my belief! I SAID SIMULATE 1000 BETS WITH 50% CHANGE OF SUCCESS! GOT IT?You cannot simulate your belief for the simple reason it is entirely dependend on your personal and individual ability to select bets that generate a positive yield. Unless you have records of a large series of bets the result of a consistent selection process you have nothing that can be similated. You could run a monte carlo simulation that tells you the % chance of hitting 15 losers in a row when betting at odds of 2.00 at random, but that's as close as you'll get. I'm not going to bother as the actual % is pretty irrelevant to the point of this thread, saying it is very small is good enough. -
Re: Progressive staking
Ok, 15, not 16... But i told you that was not my point...
after the 15th bet you will have spent 19321 and change and not have enough left to cover the 16th bet.40% total 1 50 50 2 70 120 3 98 218 4 137.2 355.2 5 192.08 547.28 6 268.912 816.192 7 376.4768 1192.669 8 527.0675 1719.736 9 737.8945 2457.631 10 1033.052 3490.683 11 1446.273 4936.956 12 2024.783 6961.739 13 2834.696 9796.435 14 3968.574 13765.01 15 5556.003 19321.01 -
Re: Progressive staking
Maybe i'm missing something, but how would increasing the amount of the bet produce a different yield? Wouldn't the results be the same? Only percentually different? I'm not being ironic, maybe i'm really missing something, or not understanding what you're saying. The OP is Corinthian.How can it not be dependend on the amount staked ? ( given the same amount of profit ) You are assuming level stakes at a level where the total becomes the same will produce the same profit. It will not therefore you will get a different yield. -
Re: Progressive staking
Thanks for the feedback on my answer. Just one thing: I wouldn't be out of cash by the 15th bet. I think it would be 16 or 17. But my point is that i find it very hard to believe that i could miss 15 in a row. But that is why i want to know the mathematical formula to simulate that.the number of bets as well as the odds is irrelevant, start with 50, increase by 40%, after your 15th losing bet you are out of cash. ( i take it you can manage 50+70+98 and so on until you do not have enough left for the next bet ) if you assume that by that time you will have made some profit then the calculation only makes sense if you include an assumed positive yield. if you actually want to know what the chances are of making a run of 15 losing bets at odds of 2.00 inside a limit of 1000 bets, i leave that for someone else to answer. -
Re: Progressive staking
Hmmm' date=' with the same total staked i don't think you can have the same yield but a different value for profit/loss, bit elementary that.[/quote'] The yield is independent of the amount of money staked. When you see a yield of 5%, you know how much money you would make if betting with 10€ and with 1000€. What you're aslking the OP is what yield he would get if he instead of betting 20€ would bet another value, whatever that is. And the answer is the exact same yield. If the amount staked is bigger, the amount lost must also be bigger, of course... but what matters is the yield -
Re: Progressive staking - very selective system
Obviously he would get the exact same yield, only with more money lost. To the OP: After 4 years of betfair trading (i'm more of a trader than a punter), i really can't get it right. I can turn a 500€ bank in 1000€ in 1 week, but my discipline is horrendus, and sooner or later comes a game where a have a huge blow and i just can't help myself and risk the all bank or most of it in the next bet. After 4 years i still have trouble with this. I think i'm just not strong enough. And it doesn't matter if i have qualities as a trader or not because when things go wrong i always end up doing the same mistake. Many times i tried telling to myself that i would have discipline and not chase losses and think of this as a marathon and not a 100m race and i started from the beginning all all was going well... BUT there always comes one day where i just loose it and send months of good work down the drain. So, i started to think about a progressive system like this. I'm in the position of being able to have 20.000€ in 1 year from now. If I had a betfair account with 20.000€ and used it ONLY for this progressive system, i would feel safe, i wouldn't get the stress i get in trading that makes me do those stupid things. Supposing that i would do exactly like you, but instead of beginning with 20€ i would begin with 50€ and instead of 20% i would make a 40% progression... do you guys think that with 20.000€ i would be completely safe, right? starting with 50€ bets and making 40% progressions i would have to miss 15 times to get to around a stake of 4k or 5k... What are the odds of missing 15 bets in a row at odds 2? The thing is that i think i can get a 45% - 50% hit rate at odds average 2. And this is where the progression works. I thought about this over and over and i know it works. What makes the difference is the progression, not the hit rate. Can anyone tell me how to simulate the runs in a sample of 1000 bets with 50% chance of sucess? Sorry for my english, but what i want is something that tells me how many times in a row could i miss if making 1000 bets with 50% chance of sucess in every bet. Well, in 1000 bets i would get 500 right, i know that, but what about the biggest loosing run? How can i calculate that? Thank you very much.Do me a favour, take all the money from progressive, 1568, divide by the number of bets, 50 use that as level stake, what result do you get ? -
Re: Progressive staking - very selective system
What a load of crap! What bookie do you work for? lol He's not using martingale or some stupid thing like that. To say that all progressive staking plans are bad staking plans is like saying that all gay guys have aids. Put a sample of 1000 bets or more, and tell me where can this go wrong? Worse than flat stake? Never. Some people like to spend 5 hours to find 1% value in a bet, and some people like to make money. This maximizes your results and that's a fact. If you get 2 ou of 10 in odds around 2, you shouldn't be allowed to bet in anything at all, it doesn't matter if you're using flat stakes or whatever. "At one point the laws of mathematics will make your staking plan look as mathematically wrong as it is, and you'll end up losing a lot more than you would lose with level stakes. " Load of crap! As i already said, get a 1000 or more bet sample, and pass it through a level staking plan and then pass it through this 20% increment staking plan. Better yet, pass it through a 50% increment staking plan. IF YOU HAVE THE BANK FOR IT, you wont burn it, and you'll maximize your results. Just don't do this with a 1000€ bank and then come saying the staking plan is mathematically wrong... :eyesYou're betting without a system, but you have a staking plan that so far has turned your inability to find winners into a small profit. At one point the laws of mathematics will make your staking plan look as mathematically wrong as it is, and you'll end up losing a lot more than you would lose with level stakes. But, whatever happens, you're still not running a system. You don't have a single selection criteria for your bets. All we see is a bad staking plan (as all progressive staking plans are)
Progressive staking
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Progressive staking
Thank you very much.