saintg1
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Posts posted by saintg1
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In post-Origin II round, only one match stand out for mine, being the Warriors @ home to Brisbane. With a strong home record, no Origin impact and Bne travelling, the 1.48 with Sportsbet represents a reasonable profit (ordinarily too short for mine, but based on confidence, happy to take 48% return). GL all.
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Another interesting round with Origin II having an impact on line-ups. It appears to me that the teams which are the least affected by Origin I & II and/or in good form should get the chocolates this weekend. Accordingly, am leaning to Souths over Wests Tigers, Penrith over Saints, Titans over the Storm, Bulldogs over the Eels and the Roosters over the Knights. All five are favourites, so the odds on offer are short, from 1.18 to 1.50 but, as mentioned previously, better to bank a 40% return, for example, than seek an unlikely 4.75 upset. GL all.
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Re: NRL Round 13 A more difficult round this week, imo, to identify winners, although we'll probably be sitting down Sunday night thinking "yep, just as thought". I'm taking the soft, perhaps foolhardy, approach this week with tri bets (ie either team to win by 6 points or less) on all games - for the simple reason that a case could be made for either team to win each match. I do believe all matches could potentially be close, as was Parra v Nth Qld last night. Of course, I thought Manly v Canterbury would be too...GL all.
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After a typically hard fought (brutal) Origin 1, Clubs have been left to pick up the pieces and field depleted teams - no Hayne, no spine for the Storm, Morris out at Canterbury and StGI, DC-E out and AW doubtful for Manly to name only a few. The Roosters and the Warriors appear to be the only unaffected teams (?). On saying that, five of the six matches appear reasonably straightforward, which could well be tempting fate given the season thus far. I expect Penrith, the Roosters, Nth Qld, the Warriors & Souths all to win, which aggregates to a $3.58 5-leg multi with Sports Bet - not great, but the logic being that the named teams are all clear favourites, makes it an acceptable risk/punt. Have made good $ gains backing $1.30-$1.60 favourites and banking the profit in recent weeks (across a range of sports, eg Sydney Swans last night @ $1.42), so am applying that strategy here. GL all!
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Re: NRL Round 11 Don't disagree Lock and, taking the Origin impact theory further, would think the Roosters should take care of the Bulldogs (especially with their drinker wanting to atone). Separately, I suspect the Warriors may win on the Gold Coast but not with sufficient confidence for me to put $ on it.
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Re: NRL Round 10 3 from 3 - all tighter than expected. We have all suffered heartbreaking (and bankroll busting) losses in the dying seconds of matches, so when the reverse applies, as it did tonight, we should rejoice and take the hard earned (I guess that's how it got its name).
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Re: NRL Round 10 Sound options Lockscombi. Cautious about Eels v St G given Marshall impact now that he's been confirmed to play, although that might be more to do with where my heart is. Three games I do like are Penrith to add to Canberra's misery (wouldn't that be a monumental turnaround if the Raiders went from two 50 point losses to a win?); the Bulldogs to beat the Warriors (not taking too much notice of last week's win by Warriors - the highlights and stats showed just how awful Canberra was - Canterbury, conversely, are travelling consistently well); and, given the revelation that Tinkler hasn't paid the players or coaching staff this past week, Manly strongly favoured over Newcastle on Monday night
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Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Saturday 10th November
He probably is but he's far from amazing and i think the rest of their team is too weak to get a sniff. I can see this panning out the way the first 93.5 minutes of the arsenal game did' date=' united comfortable and villa not getting near them. united to win to nil is good value if it can be found at 2/1.[/quote'] Sportsbet.com.au is offering Man Utd to win to nil @2.65. -
Re: NRL Grand Final Would be interested in thoughts, particularly from Blackcrow: How often do underdogs win the NRL GF? If I recall correctly, and I stand to be corrected please, the favourite has generally come through since 2000. There has been the odd upset: Newcastle in 2001 and, possibly, Penrith in 2003 (maybe Wests in 2005 at a pinch), but that's only two (or three). I would anticipate a comfortable Manly victory on Sunday and am betting accordingly. The weather is the only issue in terms of margin. Good luck all!
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Re: Rugby World Cup 2011
Yes, one would expect South Africa to win and win comfortably. However, there are some interesting sub-plots with this match. Whilst SA has looked quite solid this tournament thus far, particularly against Fiji, the team had an indifferent Tri Nations pre-RWC. Some may suggest, with justification, that it is more than possible the Boks were foxing. Nevertheless, there are more than some down under (Aust & NZ) who are speculating whether the Boks team is too old and stuck in their 2007 success. The coaching staff have selected the strongest team possible, including leaving their captain on the bench, which suggests some concern with how the team has been going, and recognition of the importance of this match. Samoa, on the other hand, will be deeply disappointed with their results this campaign. The team had high hopes of qualifying for the qtrs but didnt account for a Welsh team in surprisingly good form (indeed, again, some down this way are predicting Wales could make the final - France to beat England, Wales to be France etc). As stated above, I expect South Africa to beat Manu Samoa, but the Samoans will hold nothing back (conceivably, they could qualify with a remarkable victory). It will be a bruising affair indeed and the line of 18.0 (Sportsbet.com.au) is only slightly tempting. The weather is forecast to be 18 degrees and fne during the day, so no help there in keeping it close. Personally, this isnt a match to bet on, but one to enjoy. If pushed, I'd take South Africa at the line. Good luck!Anyone got a view on SA-Samoa? -
Re: NRL: Round 20 I'm with you Blackcrow re Manly over Penrith. Given the obvious dominance of the top 4 teams this season, it seems that backing against them is potentially foolhardy. Whereas the teams in the mkiddle of the table are clearly less consistent (case in point is Souths v Warriors - a case can be made for either team, so, from a punting point of view, it's one to leave alone. If I was to bet, I'd actually favour the Warriors based on slightly better form). As you say, the Lewis out is significant for the Panthers and I expect the Sea Eagles to maintain its recent momentum. As for Monday, it is quite extraordinary that the Raiders have such a strong record at home v the Dragons. But, applying the above logic, and on the back of last Monday's demolition of the Sharks, I fully expect St G to beat Canberra - and easily. They simply have too much form, momentum and class across the paddock. Added to which, I would imagine the coach would want to arrest the record and position the team for a top-2 ladder finish. GL all.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open Sportsbet.com.au is offering an interesting 3 event multi with +10% odds: Essendon $1.22 v Melbourne $4.30 (AFL) into Dallas $2.75 @ Miami $1.47 (game 1 NBA) into Murray $1.36 v Troiki $3.00. Essendon and Murray would (should?) be considered firm favourites based on current form (Melb are very generously priced at $4.30 - should be double that!). As would Miami at home, but as a safety, could take both Dallas & Miami to cover the two options: Essendon, Murray & Miami is paying $2.58 with the +10% bonus. Essendon, Murray & Dallas is paying $4.92. Seems like an interesting and relatively straightforward opportunity (if any 3 game multi can be so considered). Am very bullish on Essendon (readers are refered to the AFL coverage on this site). The tennis experts here are on Murray. That only leaves the NBA. GL :hope
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Re: NRL: Round 12 Would appear to be two relatively straightforward matches today with Melbourne at home to Cronulla and St George at home to Wests. The Storm, with Cam Smith celebrating 200 games + the Qld contingent being in obvious good spirits, have ood momentum going into this game against a weak and inconsistent opposition. The Saints, with its Origin contingent backing up en masse have the home ground fortress advantage against the Tigers, who have also been inconsistent this season. Am being very simplistic here but, it's hard to come up with any/sufficient reasons to not back the two home teams. Therefore, have doubled up with Sportsbet: Storm -9.5 into Dragons -4.5 @ 2.95... With confidence! GL
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Re: Tennis - The French Open I've taken the same view, at $1.30 Sportsbet, based on the ranking differences and Razzano's performance in her singles loss yesterday. She is showing great heart to play but she was clearly distracted, particularly in the 2nd set. Given the low odds, have used it in a couple of multies. GL.
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Re: NRL - Round 10 It's a tricky one to predict with certainty, tonight, particularly with Brett Stewart ruled out (replaced by Wolfman Williams & Hopoate moving to FB). Gold Coast have been awful, with rumoured discord within the team. Home ground advantage is usually worth a few points but, for the GC to win, Prince has to exert more influence than he has in recent weeks. Even without Stewart, Manly should be too strong and I will be backing them to continue their recent momentum (including their showing in T'ville which, although a loss, doesn't detract from their appeal here). Taking 1-12 (like BC) @ 3.05 and to win by > 6.5 @ 2.10, both at Sportsbet.
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Re: Tennis - 9-15 May Novak at$2.74 and stosur at $2.30 (sports bet)? Can these odds be right? Both are in cracking form and these look like gifts. Have taken both as well as Novak/Stosur to each win at least one set each $2.30. Rome has been a great pair of tournaments I and I for one appreciate the quality commentary and tipping on PL. Thanks boys. :clap
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Re: NRL: Week 8 picks
Broncos -3.5 @ 1.94 centrebet Rabbitohs -9.5 @ 2.00 centrebet BC, I agree with both your selections, although the 9.5 on Souths may raise a bit of sweat given the team's inconsistency thus far. They are more than capable (on paper). Fortunately, the loss of Burgess is more than offset by the Sharks outs. The Broncos look very solid and I would have confidence they will cover the line. GL -
Re: NCAAF: Bowl Games Strong win for SDAU. Good call Blackc, followed you for a nice Xmas bonus. Cheers :ok
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Re: Tennis 4-10/october
Excellent work re Lubi over Murray Corinthian. Good stuff :clapLOST-WON-WON Again bet with lowest odds lost... :eyes -
Re: NRL Finals Week One Still reflecting on three of the four matches, as a case could be made for any of the six teams involved. Clearly, St G have to be expected to beat a ravaged Manly - if not, there should be a stewards' enquiry! Am also leaning towards Canberra but will wait to see if Luke Lewis plays - he will be a massive out and, on top of inspirational Petero C, would probably be enough to enable me to take the Raiders with confidence. Frankly, the remaining two matches are too hard to pick - even the bookies can't separate the Tigers & the Roosters. What strikes me as an interesting bet though is Ben Creagh to score a try at any time for the Dragons (2.75 Sportsbet), given his recent hot form and the fact he will again most likely play out wide running off Soward, Hornby, Boyd et al. For that matter, Boyd and Soward are also worth a look at 2.50 each. Four cracking matches. GL all.
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Re: AFL Finals: Week 2
Thanks for that saint' date=' hoping weather bureau get it wrong as per usual:rollin ballantyne back, with an apparently fully fit sandilands is nearing a full strength team. I got a weird feeling freo are going to win this[/quote'] Not sure the bureau are far off Gooch, the weather in Melbourne recently has been as you would expect in a Mlb winter. You would have seen the news footage no doubt of the weather sweeping Victoria in recent weeks. I live within sightline of the MCG and felt the hail when it hit recently in the Richmond game (great tv footage of the hail bouncing off the Tigers player as he was lining up a shot for goal). If the rain hits as it has in recent times, it will certainly play into the Cats hands. -
Re: AFL Finals: Week 2
Weather forecast for Melbourne this weekend. 10mm rain forecast Friday, none Saturday, 88% humidity Friday etc Weather looks like it may bring the line into play Friday (currently +/-39.5 Sportsbet). These conditions likely to suit Geelong and impact on Freo's running game.FRI 
Numerous Showers. Mostly Cloudy. Cool. 13 km/h W 10mm (88%) 88% 8 15 SAT 
Mostly Sunny. Mild. 8 km/h WNW - 59% 8 17 -
Re: Tennis - US Open Three match multi for me this evening: Monfils v Djokovic >37.5 games into Kanepi v Zvonareva
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Re: Tennis - US Open
Based on form through the tournament to date' date=' have taken a multi on Wozniaki, Stosur and Schiavone all to win at least one set each @ 2.73 Sportsbet. Seems a reasonable play given how the three have been playing. Happy to lob a 7/10 on this. GL all.[/quote'] Happy with that - all three contributing comfortably. Good girls! :clap
NRL Rd 19
in AFL & NRL Predictions
Posted
If you believe in the power of raw emotion to propel a team to victory, then the Knights must represent a 'safe' 27% return this weekend at home to the Titans in the 'Rise up for Alex' round ($1.27 Sportsbet s-up). The other match of interest is the handy +10 points for Penrith v Roosters ($1.92 Sportsbet). A testing game for Penrith but if they are to demonstrate their finals credentials, this is the match to do it in. GL all.