Labrador

Whilst Castleford should arguably tighten up somewhat after last week's Challenge Cup drubbing by Wigan, they could easily get tonked again with Wigan's star backs having another field day. The one bit of value for me was Jake Wardle at 20/21 with Bet 365.

Might be worth a bet on Gloucester's no. 8, Zach Mercer to score v Ospreys in tonight's Challenge Cup quarter final. Has scored the first match try in 2 of his last 3 outings (against Castres and Leicester). 7/2 with skybet.

Best lived up to his name so one from two so far. Three for the second of tomorrow's games.
Mam at 9/5, Tabuai-Fidow at 31/20 Cobbo at 27/20.
All much better with 365 who continue with their stupid pricing model of blindly offering best price about pretty much everyone and banning anyone who places a bet. Probably not a popular opinion with many on here but it would gladden my heart if they went out of business tomorrow. Admittedly I'd forgive them if they offered me my account back with sensible bet limits but overall I'd say the way they operate doesn't deserve to succeed. They're not the only one but they're the worst in terms of careless opening prices that they aren't willing to stand proper bets on from anyone with the vaguest ounce of shrewdness. Rant over!

With the rain set to hold off I think it's worth looking to see if there are any value Hull KR tryscorer bets against hapless London Broncos. I have been impressed with the recent performances of Tyrone May and Elliott Minchella. Either player can be backed at 9/4, and those lucky enough to be able to get on Sporting Index or Spreadex fixed odds markets can get 3/1 about Minchella.

Salford v Leigh looks set to be an attacking and potentially close match. With Marc Sneyd on the pitch it's usually worth looking at the price for a successful drop goal to be kicked.
Best I can find is 4/1 (Bet 365).

In tonight's clash at Salford I've dutched 3 Wigan forwards to win just over £100 if one of them scores: Brad O'Neill (9/1), Patrick Mago (12/1) and Liam Byrne (16/1).
O'Neill is hooker and dummy half, Mago and Byrne are props. Mago scored last week and seemed extremely unlucky to be denied another when the video ref was not even called upon (would surely have seen a legitimate touchdown). Byrne returns tonight from injury and should be raring to make an impact. [Be lovely if two of them score].

Despite a low-scoring 12-4 loss to St Helens last week there were times when Leigh's fluency towards Charnley's left wing started to show. They were without Ipape and Asiata then too, so there could be more of the same in better conditions and in front of a home crowd tonight. In those moves for me it was Ricky Leutele who stood out, making 3 or 4 decent half breaks. I think he's worth a punt to score this evening. Best price is 3/1.

Warrington took a long time to start firing against Hull FC last week. They are still without George Williams, and i can see them taking a while to impose themselves against Castleford. With another heavy pitch in prospect I have had an ultra-safe (I hope) play on backing under 43.5 match points at 4/6 (skybet).

There are already big movements on the handicap for Warrington against Hull FC on Friday. Hull are decimated by injuries and suspensions. In particular they will be without hooker Danny Houghton. This attracts me to a tryscorer bet on Warrington's hooker, Danny Walker. Walker is now first choice no. 9 at Warrington following the move of Daryl Clark to St Helens. He is available at 11/4 with Hills and skybet. I suspect that price will contract sharply.

If he plays Moses Mbye looks big at 12/1 (Hills) for Saints at Huddersfield. Problem is that he might only get on for a token 10 or 15 mins at the end, and bet would stand if he takes any part -  however miniscule. [Have 56 PENCE riding )

Walker in early enough to give me a run for my brace and hat trick money. Him and Fages would have made a nice first double!

Haven't used the spreads for a while🙃.  My only bet tonight is Walker.
For me potential tryscorers at decent prices for Catalan Dragons are Theo Fages (100/30) and Jordan Dezaria (7/1). Rain should have stopped by kick-off time, but AFC Wimbledon's pitch should be quite soft and, like last night's game, should make things a bit harder for Catalan to impose.

There are already big movements on the handicap for Warrington against Hull FC on Friday. Hull are decimated by injuries and suspensions. In particular they will be without hooker Danny Houghton. This attracts me to a tryscorer bet on Warrington's hooker, Danny Walker. Walker is now first choice no. 9 at Warrington following the move of Daryl Clark to St Helens. He is available at 11/4 with Hills and skybet. I suspect that price will contract sharply.

Nice debut from Daryl Clark who also scored, along with Walmsley, Welsby and Makinson from my shortlist. Handicap easily overcome by Saints🏉😃.
Well done with Charnley, Briscoe and Handley, Harry👍.

Best value I can find for a St Helens tryscorer is hooker Daryl Clark (11/4 Bet 365). Obviously on his home debut he will be ultra keen to impress in having to follow in the boots of James Roby. Clark did cross in the recent friendly against Salford and is bound to make runs from dummy half, hopefully from close to the Broncos' line.
Other obvious forwards to score are Alex Walmsley and James Bell. The weather is likely to be better than I first read so I'm sure the backs will have loads of chances, in particular Jack Welsby and Tommy Makinson. However, the prices on these guys don't really appeal, so I'll just stick with Daryl Clark.

The weather is set to be pretty lousy but hopefully that won't scupper Saints racking up a few tries. I'll be keeping an eye open for the tryscorer markets to see how the Saints forwards are priced up.

I think the bookies may have been a tad generous with their handicaps for this afternoon's Challenge Cup tie between Swinton Lions and amateurs West Hull. Since beating a young Saints side in a friendly Swinton have beaten North Wales Crusaders and Widnes in the 1895 Cup. They put 40 points on Crusaders away from home. West Hull are an amateur club who haven't come up against a semi-professional club in the Challenge Cup since 2019 when losing to Dewsbury 32-6.
Swinton Lions (-40) v West Hull 10/11 (hills).

I've taken an early St Helens -21.5 on the handicap at 41/50 with unibet. Saints put out a young side in their opening friendly and were turned over by Swinton Lions. However, their next friendly against Salford was a very different story, as they reportedly had a very fluent 1st half to lead 28-0 at the break. They then rotated heavily to run out 52-10 winners. Obviously friendlies must be treated with extreme caution, but it sounds like surprise "promotees" London Broncos have plenty of issues before the season even starts. They have already lost hooker Bill Leyland for the whole season, and on Saturday full back Josh Rourke broke his leg in a friendly v Oldham. They will also be without prop Lewis Bienik and their other full back Alex Walker. Apparently there is no other specialist full back, and Broncos are not going to sign a replacement. 
At this stage with the weather an unknown it's dangerous to get too carried away, but there is a chance of a big blow-out for the visitors, and it might also be worth a dabble on St Helens to win by 51 points or more (11/1 at Hills -  who have allowed me 23 PENCE)

I've taken an early St Helens -21.5 on the handicap at 41/50 with unibet. Saints put out a young side in their opening friendly and were turned over by Swinton Lions. However, their next friendly against Salford was a very different story, as they reportedly had a very fluent 1st half to lead 28-0 at the break. They then rotated heavily to run out 52-10 winners. Obviously friendlies must be treated with extreme caution, but it sounds like surprise "promotees" London Broncos have plenty of issues before the season even starts. They have already lost hooker Bill Leyland for the whole season, and on Saturday full back Josh Rourke broke his leg in a friendly v Oldham. They will also be without prop Lewis Bienik and their other full back Alex Walker. Apparently there is no other specialist full back, and Broncos are not going to sign a replacement. 
At this stage with the weather an unknown it's dangerous to get too carried away, but there is a chance of a big blow-out for the visitors, and it might also be worth a dabble on St Helens to win by 51 points or more (11/1 at Hills -  who have allowed me 23 PENCE)

Jonny Howson of Middlesborough has scored twice in his last 5 appearances and may be the penalty taker this evening. There are a couple of places where 16/1 to score is available with 8/1 or below with most firms. 
 

Villa bound to rest a few regulars this evening but will still want to secure at least a point to ensure they finish top of their group and avoid two unwanted extra games in February. Due to suspensions Lucas Digne and Douglas Luiz cannot play next League game v Brentford so likely to play today. Digne at 12/1 and Luiz at 5/2 might be worth small bets to score.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u09tvnxyj#?date=2023-10-27
Potential for heavy showers throughout the match this evening. I'd be a bit wary of going too optimistic on too many points, especially given the inability of both teams actually to run meaningfully with the ball.
Good luck with your bets, lads.

Told you!  I should start a premium tipping service as the ROI for these must be off the chart. "It's the bets Harry Rag rejects..."

Whilst I expect Wakefield to have a spirited first half at least at Leigh, there's a strong chance that they will fold completely in the last quarter once their relegation is assured. I have been impressed with the recent performances of Leigh prop, Robbie Mulhearn. He scored late tries against both St Helens and Wigan in recent games. For me he's a bit of value to score at 13/2 and may reward a split stakes buy of his try minutes at 6 and mega minutes at 10 (all with Spreadex).

2.52 Chantilly Ayguemorte 25/1 (Unibet  - 5 places) £10 each way.