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wisey10

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  1. Downvote
    wisey10 got a reaction from amc in Barclays Premier League ~ September 19th - 20th   
    Chelsea -0.25 5 points @ 2.10 Bet365 Newcastle -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 Stoke -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 I'm grouping these bets and giving short reasoning for a simple reason. The three home sides are in poor form but think they all have a good chance of picking up the three points. Once the season has settled down, I would expect to to see these odds on them in these fixtures for the straight win. With half stakes returned in the event of the draw, I think they all represent decent value. Traditionally, Arsenal aren't great on the road against top 4 opposition. Yes Chelsea have had a shocking start and there are signs of discontent in the ranks but they are more than capable of winning this match and it's only a matter of time until things start to click. After a comfortable win in the week there's no better time to show a bit of fire in their belly in a London derby against an Arsenal side who lost midweek away in Europe. Newcastle look in big danger and whilst I think this Watford side can stay up, they are struggling in front of goal a bit and I expect it will be their home form which will count. Toon simply have to start winning matches like this if they are to stay up. Something's not quite right there but they have enough quality to win this match. If this were to be played later in the season I would expect to see Newcastle close to evens just for the outright win. Stoke and Leicester have had contrasting starts to the season. I highlighted in the ante post thread that Stoke could be worth a play for relegation at 15's. Mainly because of defensive worries with the loss of Nzonzi and Shawcross' injury. Those defensive worries are still there but the Potters still have plenty of attacking threat. After a narrow loss to Liverpool at home and a close defeat by West Brom where they played with 9 men for much of the game, this is the first real opportunity at home to notch 3 points. Despite the Foxe's good start I still think Stoke are the better side and again, under different circumstances, I would expect to see Stoke around evens to win this match. The odds simply look too big due to their contrasting starts. I also like the look of Sunderland on the handicap but have nothing further to add to Phantams post. Good luck all.
  2. Like
    wisey10 got a reaction from Mindfulness in Barclays Premier League ~ September 19th - 20th   
    Chelsea -0.25 5 points @ 2.10 Bet365 Newcastle -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 Stoke -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 I'm grouping these bets and giving short reasoning for a simple reason. The three home sides are in poor form but think they all have a good chance of picking up the three points. Once the season has settled down, I would expect to to see these odds on them in these fixtures for the straight win. With half stakes returned in the event of the draw, I think they all represent decent value. Traditionally, Arsenal aren't great on the road against top 4 opposition. Yes Chelsea have had a shocking start and there are signs of discontent in the ranks but they are more than capable of winning this match and it's only a matter of time until things start to click. After a comfortable win in the week there's no better time to show a bit of fire in their belly in a London derby against an Arsenal side who lost midweek away in Europe. Newcastle look in big danger and whilst I think this Watford side can stay up, they are struggling in front of goal a bit and I expect it will be their home form which will count. Toon simply have to start winning matches like this if they are to stay up. Something's not quite right there but they have enough quality to win this match. If this were to be played later in the season I would expect to see Newcastle close to evens just for the outright win. Stoke and Leicester have had contrasting starts to the season. I highlighted in the ante post thread that Stoke could be worth a play for relegation at 15's. Mainly because of defensive worries with the loss of Nzonzi and Shawcross' injury. Those defensive worries are still there but the Potters still have plenty of attacking threat. After a narrow loss to Liverpool at home and a close defeat by West Brom where they played with 9 men for much of the game, this is the first real opportunity at home to notch 3 points. Despite the Foxe's good start I still think Stoke are the better side and again, under different circumstances, I would expect to see Stoke around evens to win this match. The odds simply look too big due to their contrasting starts. I also like the look of Sunderland on the handicap but have nothing further to add to Phantams post. Good luck all.
  3. Like
    wisey10 reacted to Mindfulness in Barclays Premier League ~ September 19th - 20th   
    Bournemouth V Sunderland Sunderland +1.0 @ 1.751 Matchbook > 5% BR This is clearly an important game for both clubs as you would feel they are directly competing with each other to avoid relegation come the end of the season. For Bournemouth this is the kind of home game they should be looking to take maximum points from if they wish to stay in the EPL while Sunderland can’t really afford to loose to a direct rival. The pressure will be on both teams for this encounter. Bournemouth have struggled to adapt to life in the premier league so far and Eddie Howe’s 4-4-2 module has only really proved effective against a very narrow West Ham team thus far. Bournemouth are not so creative through the centre of the park in the absence of key central midfielder Harry Arter. They are still dangerous from wide positions with the system they play but they currently lack the full range of attacking dynamics seen during their championship winning campaign. The injuries to Tyrone Mings and particularly Max Gradel are also problematic for Eddie Howe’s team. Gradel was a real threat on the left flank and this allowed more space for Matt Ritchie on the right as opposition teams would find it difficult to handle both these threats at the same time. Now Gradel is out of the equation, opposition defenses can concentrate their efforts on Ritchie who will now often find himself double marked in games, limiting his attacking threat. Bournemouth can still utilize Marc Pugh on the left wing, he knows the system well and can perform to a decent standard at this level but Bournemouth’s options are now starting to look limited when attacking from wide positions. Upfront Bournemouth have decent options with the likes of Callum Wilson and Glenn Murray but Howe has so far struggled to effectively integrate one of his forwards in the all important second striker role. Howe has often deployed a 4-4-1-1 this season in an attempt to prevent his central midfielders from being overrun in a 4-4-2. The second striker role in a 4-4-1-1 is really a specialist position, Josh King has given it a good go, some would prefer Lee Tomlin there but so far you would have to say it is a problem area for them. I also remain unconvinced by Bournemouth’s centre-back pairing at this level. Steve Cook and Tommy Elphick are generally robust and strong in the air (despite Bournemouth being terrible at defending set-pieces so far this season) but neither are particularly good at defending against players with pace and skill, attributes they will have to face in an improving Sunderland side this Saturday. I watched Sunderland against Tottenham at the weekend and I thought Dick Advocaat’s side put in a very good performance and really deserved something from the contest. The back four of Jones, O’Shea, Kaboul and van Aanholt looked more assured and generally the team played with a lot more heart and aggression than in earlier rounds. The most encouraging aspect was the front three which not only has real balance with the addition of Borini on the left side but also genuine threat now that Lens and Defoe are really starting to link up well. After a poor start, Sunderland are starting to improve and look more effective as a unit. We should still expect them to be in a relegation dogfight over the course of the season but in my view they have a fair chance of survival if Advocaat can maintain the spirit level of his players. So what are the risks? It’s a high pressure game and we can’t be sure of the approach either side will take given the importance of the contest. Logic and reason can go out the window in 6 pointers just as they do with local derbies so even big AH lines can struggle to provide a safety net wide enough to cover the outcomes in these situations. Despite this, I don’t think Sunderland should be available on such a big line here. +1.0 looks generous given the current performance levels of the two teams so I will get behind the away side here.
  4. Downvote
    wisey10 got a reaction from NornIron in Barclays Premier League - Miscellaneous Ante-Post   
    Stoke to be relegated: 2 Points @ 15.00 Bet365 As a Stoke fan, it's not the easiest pick and by no means am I saying that I expect the Potters to be relegated. I don't. However, this price is just too big. I shall explain why. We made a massive amount of progress last season and the last match of the season saw a deserved 6-1 win against Liverpool and everything was looking rosy. Steven Nzonzi was man of the match that day. In fact, he was also player of the season and man of the match in a number of games. So my first point is that the loss of him this pre season cannot be underestimated. He was the glue that held us together and he is going to be very hard to replace. Van Ginkel has come in on loan from Chelsea and for his first year in the premier league as a starter, hopes got very big boots to fill. His arrival saw Asmir Begovic going the other way to Chelsea. whilst we do have a good ready made replacement in Jack Butland, it is also easy to underestimate the influence of a top goalkeeper in your side. Begovic could command a box and there's no doubt in my mind that we will miss him. Butland could be as good in time but he's still inexperienced and it's likely to take him a couple of years to grow into the position. The next body low is the news of Ryan Shawcross' injury. Having struggled with injury since the end of last season, Ryan barely featured this pre season and news has now come out that he needs surgery on his back which will keep him out for at least a couple of months. Call me sceptical but I can see it being longer than that and then he has to get up to speed having add no pre season e.t.c Ryan is very underrated by many but believe me, he's been colossal for Stoke and this is a devastating blow. So you can start to see a picture forming of the key spine to last years side being depleted. gk Begovic, centre half Shawcross and centre midfield Nzonzi. 3 of our star players absolutely crucial to the side. What concerns me most this year is the defence. With Begovic gone and Shawcross out for a while we are missing experience, but more than that it's the lack of a quality replacement/cover for Shawcross that concerns me. Hughes has signed Philip Wollscheid who we had on last year and he has been very poor and error prone. Marc Wilson played a lot last year and could be solid for 89 minutes but regularly drip that 1 clanger which would cost us a goal. Geoff Cameron is a utility man who can do a job as centre half for the odd emergency but the thought of him there regularly doesn't fill me with confidence. The final and best option is young Marc Muniesa but he continually seems to struggle with hamstring problems. Put any of them alongside Shawcross and I'd be happy. Having 2 of them as our partnership for a sustained period of time fills me with dread. Fullbacks wise Erik Pieters is solid enough on the left but another who seems to struggle a bit with injuries. And Glen Johnson has been bought in as right back. If we were solid in the middle he could be a decent enough attacking fullback to add but when we look weak defensively already it looks a very dangerous move with his poor concentration. In other areas of the pitch we do have some good quality but the squad is looking unbalanced. As I say, this isn't a bet because I definitely think Stoke will go down. But I think we may struggle this season whilst a lot of other sides look to be improving. I also think the 3 promoted sides look relatively strong and all have a chance of staying up. All things considered, the price here just looks too generous and isn't right.
  5. Like
    wisey10 got a reaction from Mindfulness in Barclays Premier League - Miscellaneous Ante-Post   
    Stoke to be relegated: 2 Points @ 15.00 Bet365 As a Stoke fan, it's not the easiest pick and by no means am I saying that I expect the Potters to be relegated. I don't. However, this price is just too big. I shall explain why. We made a massive amount of progress last season and the last match of the season saw a deserved 6-1 win against Liverpool and everything was looking rosy. Steven Nzonzi was man of the match that day. In fact, he was also player of the season and man of the match in a number of games. So my first point is that the loss of him this pre season cannot be underestimated. He was the glue that held us together and he is going to be very hard to replace. Van Ginkel has come in on loan from Chelsea and for his first year in the premier league as a starter, hopes got very big boots to fill. His arrival saw Asmir Begovic going the other way to Chelsea. whilst we do have a good ready made replacement in Jack Butland, it is also easy to underestimate the influence of a top goalkeeper in your side. Begovic could command a box and there's no doubt in my mind that we will miss him. Butland could be as good in time but he's still inexperienced and it's likely to take him a couple of years to grow into the position. The next body low is the news of Ryan Shawcross' injury. Having struggled with injury since the end of last season, Ryan barely featured this pre season and news has now come out that he needs surgery on his back which will keep him out for at least a couple of months. Call me sceptical but I can see it being longer than that and then he has to get up to speed having add no pre season e.t.c Ryan is very underrated by many but believe me, he's been colossal for Stoke and this is a devastating blow. So you can start to see a picture forming of the key spine to last years side being depleted. gk Begovic, centre half Shawcross and centre midfield Nzonzi. 3 of our star players absolutely crucial to the side. What concerns me most this year is the defence. With Begovic gone and Shawcross out for a while we are missing experience, but more than that it's the lack of a quality replacement/cover for Shawcross that concerns me. Hughes has signed Philip Wollscheid who we had on last year and he has been very poor and error prone. Marc Wilson played a lot last year and could be solid for 89 minutes but regularly drip that 1 clanger which would cost us a goal. Geoff Cameron is a utility man who can do a job as centre half for the odd emergency but the thought of him there regularly doesn't fill me with confidence. The final and best option is young Marc Muniesa but he continually seems to struggle with hamstring problems. Put any of them alongside Shawcross and I'd be happy. Having 2 of them as our partnership for a sustained period of time fills me with dread. Fullbacks wise Erik Pieters is solid enough on the left but another who seems to struggle a bit with injuries. And Glen Johnson has been bought in as right back. If we were solid in the middle he could be a decent enough attacking fullback to add but when we look weak defensively already it looks a very dangerous move with his poor concentration. In other areas of the pitch we do have some good quality but the squad is looking unbalanced. As I say, this isn't a bet because I definitely think Stoke will go down. But I think we may struggle this season whilst a lot of other sides look to be improving. I also think the 3 promoted sides look relatively strong and all have a chance of staying up. All things considered, the price here just looks too generous and isn't right.
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