wisey10
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Posts posted by wisey10
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Palace v West Brom: Both Teams to score @ 2.00 Betfred
The stats on this one probably indicate a low scoring, tight game but I fancy both sides to find the net. At home, Palace have only drawn a blank against a Man City side who were in top form. No doubt Pulis will come to keep it tight against his old club but I think the Eagles will create enough chances to get on the score sheet. The Baggies have shipped 6 in their last 2 matches (albeit one in league cup) and away at a decent Palace side they could have their work cut out again. I do however think they could be in the goals as well though. berhanio staying has been a big plus and whilst Rondon has been struggling with injury this week, it may give Rickie Lambert the chance to start. It might be a cliche with a Pulis side but you know they always have a good chance of scoring with their set pieces. And with his set up of two wingers getting up on the counter and a few direct balls in the mix, I like their chances of grabbing a goal. They aren't exactly big scorers but Pulis is a shrewd cookie and he knows this Palace side well.
Im probably going against the general consensus here but I'm backing both sides to find the net at evens.
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Ipswich @ 2.10 Betfred
Mick Mcarthy has done a great job at Ipswich and his home record with the Tractor Boys is outstanding. After a good start they haven't won in their last two home games but I expect them to get back to business as usual against a Bristol side struggling at the bottom of the table. You can't really argue at odds against for a team in the top 6 playing a newly promoted side in the bottom 6. I would have expected to see the home side around 1.85 so they look a solid bet on my calculations.
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Hull -0.25 @ 1.85 Bet365
I can't quite work out why Hull are such a good price here. They've got strong home form where they are unbeaten and have conceded just 2 goals whilst Blackburn are winless on the road. I was expecting about 1.90 on the home win so to get -0.25 at just a bit shorter it jumps out as value. It's a Tigers win for me.
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Your bet is based on the assumption that Stoke will surely win this match. For me Stoke's victory is far from certain. Bournemouth play with great energy and intensity, and their players are good enough to score a goal or 2. It's very likely that this match will see a team emerge victorious but I just can't say who, and therefore the price on Bournemouth LVL FT represents huge value here.
Well of course it is! I'd say the value was all on Stoke but it's all about opinions. Good luck.
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Stoke -1 (AH) @ 3.90 Bet365
Stoke and Both teams to score @ 5.00
Stoke look too big a price due to their poor start and Bournemouth are getting much respect in the markets for a newly promoted side.
The problem with Stoke is the centre halves and a lack of balance in the side. They've got numerous options in the attacking half but are missing a quality midfield destroyer who can tighten things up and protect the defence. The potters are still winless and are managing to put a good 45 minutes together but not a full game. For my money though, it's just a matter of time until things click into place. The new signings are slowly bedding in and a front four of Arnautovic, Bojan, Shaqiri and Diouf will cause any side problems. In fact, sooner or later they are going to give someone a drubbing and I'm keen to be one them when they do.
No one respects Bournemoth more than me. I think Eddie Howe is a superb manager and I know he's being doing his homework on Stoke. So of course there's a danger that he's going to pull a rabbit out of a hat. But the price here today isn't a true reflection on the two sides abilities imho. Stoke's poor defence remains a concern and I struggle to see them keeping a clean sheet. So if they are going to win then it's going to be a 'we will score one more than you'. For that reason I like the bet of Stoke to win and both teams to score and at 4/1 it's an attractive price too. I'm also backing the Potttes on the Asian -1 line. In the event of them winning by 1 goal I get my money back. But if today is the day things click into place, Stoke's attacking quartet could prove toomuch for the Cherries defence and a decent win could be on the cards.
its safe too say I'm heavily in on the Potters today!
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Chelsea -0.25 5 points @ 2.10 Bet365 Newcastle -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 Stoke -0.25 5 Points @ 2.075 Bet365 I'm grouping these bets and giving short reasoning for a simple reason. The three home sides are in poor form but think they all have a good chance of picking up the three points. Once the season has settled down, I would expect to to see these odds on them in these fixtures for the straight win. With half stakes returned in the event of the draw, I think they all represent decent value. Traditionally, Arsenal aren't great on the road against top 4 opposition. Yes Chelsea have had a shocking start and there are signs of discontent in the ranks but they are more than capable of winning this match and it's only a matter of time until things start to click. After a comfortable win in the week there's no better time to show a bit of fire in their belly in a London derby against an Arsenal side who lost midweek away in Europe. Newcastle look in big danger and whilst I think this Watford side can stay up, they are struggling in front of goal a bit and I expect it will be their home form which will count. Toon simply have to start winning matches like this if they are to stay up. Something's not quite right there but they have enough quality to win this match. If this were to be played later in the season I would expect to see Newcastle close to evens just for the outright win. Stoke and Leicester have had contrasting starts to the season. I highlighted in the ante post thread that Stoke could be worth a play for relegation at 15's. Mainly because of defensive worries with the loss of Nzonzi and Shawcross' injury. Those defensive worries are still there but the Potters still have plenty of attacking threat. After a narrow loss to Liverpool at home and a close defeat by West Brom where they played with 9 men for much of the game, this is the first real opportunity at home to notch 3 points. Despite the Foxe's good start I still think Stoke are the better side and again, under different circumstances, I would expect to see Stoke around evens to win this match. The odds simply look too big due to their contrasting starts. I also like the look of Sunderland on the handicap but have nothing further to add to Phantams post. Good luck all.
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Stoke to be relegated: 2 Points @ 15.00 Bet365 As a Stoke fan, it's not the easiest pick and by no means am I saying that I expect the Potters to be relegated. I don't. However, this price is just too big. I shall explain why. We made a massive amount of progress last season and the last match of the season saw a deserved 6-1 win against Liverpool and everything was looking rosy. Steven Nzonzi was man of the match that day. In fact, he was also player of the season and man of the match in a number of games. So my first point is that the loss of him this pre season cannot be underestimated. He was the glue that held us together and he is going to be very hard to replace. Van Ginkel has come in on loan from Chelsea and for his first year in the premier league as a starter, hopes got very big boots to fill. His arrival saw Asmir Begovic going the other way to Chelsea. whilst we do have a good ready made replacement in Jack Butland, it is also easy to underestimate the influence of a top goalkeeper in your side. Begovic could command a box and there's no doubt in my mind that we will miss him. Butland could be as good in time but he's still inexperienced and it's likely to take him a couple of years to grow into the position. The next body low is the news of Ryan Shawcross' injury. Having struggled with injury since the end of last season, Ryan barely featured this pre season and news has now come out that he needs surgery on his back which will keep him out for at least a couple of months. Call me sceptical but I can see it being longer than that and then he has to get up to speed having add no pre season e.t.c Ryan is very underrated by many but believe me, he's been colossal for Stoke and this is a devastating blow. So you can start to see a picture forming of the key spine to last years side being depleted. gk Begovic, centre half Shawcross and centre midfield Nzonzi. 3 of our star players absolutely crucial to the side. What concerns me most this year is the defence. With Begovic gone and Shawcross out for a while we are missing experience, but more than that it's the lack of a quality replacement/cover for Shawcross that concerns me. Hughes has signed Philip Wollscheid who we had on last year and he has been very poor and error prone. Marc Wilson played a lot last year and could be solid for 89 minutes but regularly drip that 1 clanger which would cost us a goal. Geoff Cameron is a utility man who can do a job as centre half for the odd emergency but the thought of him there regularly doesn't fill me with confidence. The final and best option is young Marc Muniesa but he continually seems to struggle with hamstring problems. Put any of them alongside Shawcross and I'd be happy. Having 2 of them as our partnership for a sustained period of time fills me with dread. Fullbacks wise Erik Pieters is solid enough on the left but another who seems to struggle a bit with injuries. And Glen Johnson has been bought in as right back. If we were solid in the middle he could be a decent enough attacking fullback to add but when we look weak defensively already it looks a very dangerous move with his poor concentration. In other areas of the pitch we do have some good quality but the squad is looking unbalanced. As I say, this isn't a bet because I definitely think Stoke will go down. But I think we may struggle this season whilst a lot of other sides look to be improving. I also think the 3 promoted sides look relatively strong and all have a chance of staying up. All things considered, the price here just looks too generous and isn't right.
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This forum is now almost unviewable on my Pad. So I'm not inclined to post all my views. Agree about Palace. Stoke look big odds for relegation. I've got a lot to say for what it's worth but on this format I don't think it's worthwhile!
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Re: Ante-Post > Championship 2014/15 Winner CongratulationBournemouth on a fantastic season and in making me a few bob in the process!
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Sheff Wed +0.25 v Norwich @ 1.90 Bet365 (3 Points) Taking a chance on Wednesday to avoid defeat here as I think this should be a level ball (DNB) handicap. Both sides are a little short of form at the moment and Wednesday particularly need to improve at home. Norwich will continue to create plenty of chances and remain a big danger but they are failing to make their chances count too often. Wednesday were outplayed and well beat in their last home match, losing 3-0 to Watford. They followed that up with a better performance and clean sheet away at Brentford though and I think Gray will be looking for a more defensive set up again here. Norwich have got a good away record but they did lose their last match on the road at Fulham. I just think that their price is a bit too short and with the home advantage, I think Wednesday are worth siding with to avoid defeat.
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Re: Southampton v Stoke City > Saturday October 25th Stoke +1 (AH) @ 1.85 Bet365 (3 Points) Geoff Cameron Anytime Goalscorer @ 19.00 PaddyPower (1 Point) Im either brave or stupid backing against Southampton in their current form but ultimately their price is too short here and as such I shall be backing Stoke on the handicap. Stoke really haven't quite hit form yet and things just aren't quite clicking like they were towards the end of last season. But it's not a million miles away from happening and once it does they should hit some real form. Southampton on the other hand are already motoring and they are rightly favourites for the win. But it's worth noting that Stoke are playing with a real counter attack system at the moment and Southampton coming on to them will suit the style nicely. Stoke really under performed in their first two home games as they struggled to break Villa and Leicester down who had clearly come to defend. The current system uses the pace of Mosees and Diouf (who will get very close to Crouch on long balls) to break quickly from defensive situations. I fully expect Southampton to have more of the ball and create chances but in turn that will present a number of opportunities for Stoke to counter with their pace. As things stand, I think Saints are the better side of the two, however I don't think the gap is as big as the bandicap suggests. I could end up looking a bit silly opposing the home side here but I think they are wort taking on at the price. The 2nd half of the bet is a bit of a gamble. Cameron hasn't being playing this season after losing his right back slot to Bardsley. He is adamant that he wants to play centre midfield though and there is a good chance today he will get the chance as Whelan is out with a fractured leg. Ironically, Bardsley is a doubt though so there's a small chance he might have to cover for him in defence. If he does get the go ahead to start in centre mid though, I think the price is too big for him to score. He would be in a defensive midfield role but he's very athletic and I expect him to join plenty of the attacks. I've already stated that I expect Stoke to play on the counter and Geoff is athletic enough to join Moses and Diouf in any breaks. He's also a useful target on set pieces. It's a speculative one of course but if he does start in midfield, the price just looks too generous.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Leeds +0.25 v Wolves @ 1.95 Bet365 (4 Points) Leeds might not be impressing too much this season but the fact is, their home record isn't actually too bad and they've only lost 1/6 at Elland Road. It's funny times there at the moment but they do have some decent players. Wolves look far too short here and I've got to oppose them. Whilst Leeds have only lost 1 at home, Wolves have only won 1/6 away. Now fair enough, they've drawn in 4 of those so they aren't easy to beat either. But it's Leeds who are gaining the positive handicap on this line and I think they are worth siding with at the price.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Ipswich -0.5 v Huddersfield @ 2.025 Bet365 (4 Points) Ipswich have got really strong home form with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss out of 6. Their fine home form continues from last season and PortmanRoad isn't an easy place to go for anybody. Huddersfield's form has dramatically improved since Chris Powell took over but this match is arguably his toughest yet. So far they've lost 3 and drawn 1 of their 6 away games (winning 2) It's not too bad a record but ultimately I think anything at evens or above on the Tractor Boys is worth taking. I expect them to win more than 50% of their home games this season and when you break it down against mid/lower table sides like Huddersfield, I think the home win % will be much better. Ipswich win for me.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Brighton v Rotherham @ 1.90 WillHill (4 Points) Sometimes you can't back bets up with hard stats and this is one of those occasions. On paper Brighton are too short and they are in shocking form having only won 1 home game all season. I've opposed them a few times this sesason as they keep getting over rated. They just aren't the same side they have been the last couple of seasons; Ulloa is a massive loss and they haven't replaced him. Their strikers have 1 goal between them and that was from Mackail-Smith who is out injured. The two new strikers Baldock and O'Grady have failed to score A goal between them. And on current evidence, Hypia just isn't as good a manager as his predecessors. But there is a reason than the Seagull's have been continually overestimated this season; their possession count and chances created is very good, even if they aren't making it count. I think reality is starting to set in that they could be in trouble this season. And you can have all the possession in the world but if you can't make it count then it's worth nothing. The markets have ever so slightly started to recognise this. I like Rotherham and they've got enough attacking options in there to cause most sides problems. I do think the loss of Becchio to injury is a massive blow though as he could potentially have been crucial to them. The Miller's should win enough battles this year to stay up and their in your face direct style will ruffle enough feathers. But I think a lot of those battles will be won at home. They have won just 1 away from home so far and I think they will continue to struggle a bit on the road, especially to possession style sides like Brighton. To make matters worse for Brighton, they are struggling with injuries at the moment and Crofts and Mackail-Smith are a loss for them. Lua Lua (I think) is also suspended for this game. But this game represents a great chance for the Seagull's to pick up a muchneeded3 points. Whilst I do think they have been getting far too much respect this season, I'm pretty sure that they are a bit better than their league position suggests. If at home they can't beat a Rotherham side who aren't the best on the road, it really is time to start worrying. The Seagulls are finally a backable price to turn the corner and I think the timing could work out nicely in favour of this bet. It's a vital home win For me.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Middlesbrough v Watford +0.5 @ 1.90 Bet365 (4 Points) Boro look a bit short here considering they are up against one of the best sides in the league. Boro's home record is surprisingly average having won just 3 out of 6. They are up against a Hornet's side who have lost just 2 away and they earned a fine 3-0 win in their last match on the road against Sheff Wednesday. I was expecting to see a 0.25 handicap in this match and on that basis Boro are worth opposing at a price that just looks too short against quality opposition. I'm backing Watford to avoid defeat.
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Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 24th - 25th Nottm Forest -0.25 v Blackburn @ 1.90 Bet365 (4 Points) Forest's unbeaten record has finally gone but they still remain very tough to beat. They've got a strong home record with 3 wins and 3 draws from 6. It's actually 7 games since their last victory but they have only lost 1 game in that run. I expect Pearce to go 442 in this game as he really needs to go for the 3 points and I think they have a good chance of getting them against an average Blackburn side who have been struggling for goals recently. Blackburns away form isnt anything to shout about with two wins at lowly Blackpool and Fulham and a draw and 3 losses. I don't expect Forest's lack of wins to go on forever and at home to an average Blackburn side represents a strong opportunity to get back on track. With half stakes returned in the event of the draw, there's plenty to like about this bet on the home win.
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Round 5 Selections: Championship: Charlton +0.5 @ 2.10 (2 Points) Birmingham +0.5 @ 1.875 Rotherham + 0.5 @ 1.875 (2 Points) Leeds + 0.25 @ 1.925 Watford +0.5 @ 1.90 Forest -0.25 @1.90 Blackpool + 0.75 @ 2.00 (2 Points) Sheff Wed + 0.25 @ 1.85 8 bets, 11 Points staked League 1: Barnsley +0.25 @ 2.10 Crewe + 0.5 @ 2.025 Fleetwood +0.75 @ 2.025 Notts County + 0 @ 2.05 Colchester +0.75 @ 1.80 5 bets, 5 Points staked League 2: Luton -0.25 @ 1.825 Plymouth -0.25 @ 1.975 Burton +0 @ 1.90 Morecambe -0.25 @ 2.0 4 Bets, 4 points staked
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Combined Totals: Starting Bank: 300 Current Bank: 310.31 p/L + 10.31 Total Staked: 107 Yield: 9.63 %
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Staked: 7 Return: 9.325 P/L + 2.325 New Balance: 110.6 League 2 Doing the business again.League 2, Round 4: Burton +0 @ 1.825 Morecambe +0 @ 2.025 (2 Points) Newport +0 @ 1.85 Northampton -0.25 @ 2.025 Mansfield + 0.25 @ 1.85 Luton -0.5 @ 1.80 6 bets, 7 Points -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Staked: 7 Points Return: 10.9 P/L: + 3.9 New Balance: 98.225League 1, Round 4 Selections: Notts County +0.25 @ 1.925 Bradford +0.75 @ 2.025 Crawley + 0 @ 2.05 (2 Points) Crewe + 0.75 @ 1.825 Doncaster + 0 @ 2.00 (2 Points) 5 Bets, 7 Points Staked -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping
Staked: 13 Return: 14.125 P/L + 1.125 New Balance: 101.4875Championship Round 4 Selections: Blackpool + 0.75 @ 1.975 (2Points) Reading +0.75 @ 1.925 (2 Points) Ipswich +0.25 @ 1.825 Charlton -0.25 @ 1.975 (2 Points) Huddersfield +0 @ 2.00 Leeds +1 @ 2.10 (2 Points) Rotherham + 0 @ 1.95 (2 Points) Milwall +0.5 @ 1.975 8 bets, 13 Points staked -
Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 2, Round 4: Burton +0 @ 1.825 Morecambe +0 @ 2.025 (2 Points) Newport +0 @ 1.85 Northampton -0.25 @ 2.025 Mansfield + 0.25 @ 1.85 Luton -0.5 @ 1.80 6 bets, 7 Points
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping League 1, Round 4 Selections: Notts County +0.25 @ 1.925 Bradford +0.75 @ 2.025 Crawley + 0 @ 2.05 (2 Points) Crewe + 0.75 @ 1.825 Doncaster + 0 @ 2.00 (2 Points) 5 Bets, 7 Points Staked
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Re: Wisey's Asian Handicapping Championship Round 4 Selections: Blackpool + 0.75 @ 1.975 (2Points) Reading +0.75 @ 1.925 (2 Points) Ipswich +0.25 @ 1.825 Charlton -0.25 @ 1.975 (2 Points) Huddersfield +0 @ 2.00 Leeds +1 @ 2.10 (2 Points) Rotherham + 0 @ 1.95 (2 Points) Milwall +0.5 @ 1.975 8 bets, 13 Points staked
Premier League ~ October 24th & 25th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Aston Villa b Swansea: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 VCBet
Two sides in poor form and I think it's fair to say both managers are under pressure. For those reasons the market suggests that this is likely to be a low scoring game. I think the odds on the overs are too big though. Both sides have to view this as a winnable match and should look to take the game to the other. If we see a break through in the first half you've got to think the manager of the losing side will have to really go for it and I can see this developing into an open game. It's a tricky game to pick a winner in but at the odds available I think it's worth siding with goals in this match.