allthethings

Been looking at the trio of big dogs in League Two...two of them, Barnet and Exeter, among the best away sides in the league. They're playing at formidable home sides, of course, Carlisle and Portsmouth respectively. Orient are a for-sure miss, although the way my mind works is that when I see people pushing Mansfield and others climb on, I wouldn't be surprised to see the favorite bottle it. Of the others I mentioned, it's hard to see past the 4.43 average price on Exeter, who are 9-1-4 away to this point and can probably go toe to toe with Portsmouth. They're on an amazing run of form, 7-2-0, in which they've scored 20 and conceded 2. My book has it at 4.68, and I'll bite.

Sorry mates, didn't realize this was sitting here waiting for a reply. I did get a notification, though, and now that I see it...
Premier has performed about to expectations. 7-16-60 in total by the big dogs away, 10-7-29 by the home dogs. The latter is a bit of a surprise that they've managed outright wins when they ordinarily get draws.
Championship has been abysmal this season, taking 9 units of mine as the sides have seemingly forgotten all about how to get 1 point. Away dogs there are 21-14-59. Something for sure is different in 2016-17.
The league that has been lights out this season for draws is League One...13-30-57 for all away dogs (30% draws), and 34% if you just take dogs under 5.99. I missed it...by the time I realized what was happening it was too late, as I was expecting a reversion to the mean that hasn't yet come.
League Two has been as I predicted (which continues about a seven-year run), of wins by away dogs, particularly those in the range of under 4.99 (18-19-36). I've gotten very lucky there...I've won a few flyers, had sides draw when I called draw, that sort of thing. +16.5 units currently. If you're looking to the future, February is usually a month for draws, and then March is a month for wins by dogs.

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:
Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)
8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)
As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.
Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)
8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)
The first two are decent bets, anyway.

I keep saying this every other day, but the former Johnstone's Paint Pot trophy is one of the best competitions to bet on because it's a complete free-for-all. You never have any idea who's going to play, but the matches are priced up purely on who's in what league.
The twist in the KO this year is that we have group play results to skew people's expectations. In the past the round of 32 (its place was taken by the group matches) and the round of 16 were fabulous for outright wins by dogs. I'll be looking to see what the odds do on Morecambe. Scunthorpe should crush them, but they've got a long history of winning away as big dogs. But I think any of the away dogs up to around 6.00 will be worth backing.

Lol, I must remember not to do two things at once. This is the last group match, and the only home match for the Academy sides. I still believe there's money to be made, probably by opposing them.

Exactly why this is a goldmine, not a land mine. Games are priced up normally in abnormal circumstances. No matter who plays or doesn't, underdogs are far more motivated for the silverware. 
I am on Leicester to win here at 4.26. L haven't convinced yet but have been solid at home, and this is a lot of value for a home match.

Out of curiosity, to see whether the international break has any effect on favorites, I went back and looked at the WC qualifiers in 2012-13, to see whether, on aggregate, favorites in Europe do better or worse before and after the break.
I dug around and ended up counting results for EPL, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Russia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands.
The week before the break: A fair number of wins away by underdogs of up to 4.99, but just as many draws, actually. 22-22-28 by dogs at that price range. Home dogs of up to 4.99, draws.
The week after was striking...away dogs fared very poorly, suggesting that the best sides come back from the break in good shape. But when the dogs played at home, they managed draws to an absurd degree. 7-19-30, 34% draws, entire range of odds.
I'd always heard people say that you should show caution when teams return from international breaks, but what I found was a smaller than normal number of wins by dogs, a very good performance by favorites at home, and a very high percentage of home dogs managing to get a point on the return.

Out of curiosity, to see whether the international break has any effect on favorites, I went back and looked at the WC qualifiers in 2012-13, to see whether, on aggregate, favorites in Europe do better or worse before and after the break.
I dug around and ended up counting results for EPL, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Russia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands.
The week before the break: A fair number of wins away by underdogs of up to 4.99, but just as many draws, actually. 22-22-28 by dogs at that price range. Home dogs of up to 4.99, draws.
The week after was striking...away dogs fared very poorly, suggesting that the best sides come back from the break in good shape. But when the dogs played at home, they managed draws to an absurd degree. 7-19-30, 34% draws, entire range of odds.
I'd always heard people say that you should show caution when teams return from international breaks, but what I found was a smaller than normal number of wins by dogs, a very good performance by favorites at home, and a very high percentage of home dogs managing to get a point on the return.

Out of curiosity, to see whether the international break has any effect on favorites, I went back and looked at the WC qualifiers in 2012-13, to see whether, on aggregate, favorites in Europe do better or worse before and after the break.
I dug around and ended up counting results for EPL, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Russia, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands.
The week before the break: A fair number of wins away by underdogs of up to 4.99, but just as many draws, actually. 22-22-28 by dogs at that price range. Home dogs of up to 4.99, draws.
The week after was striking...away dogs fared very poorly, suggesting that the best sides come back from the break in good shape. But when the dogs played at home, they managed draws to an absurd degree. 7-19-30, 34% draws, entire range of odds.
I'd always heard people say that you should show caution when teams return from international breaks, but what I found was a smaller than normal number of wins by dogs, a very good performance by favorites at home, and a very high percentage of home dogs managing to get a point on the return.

My thoughts on this are...avoid the U23 teams, they are priced up pretty long, no one knows how they will fair, no one knows sod all about them. I would stick to ties involving league teams against other league teams. Having said that there isn't much to go on price wise in them games either. There are on or two prices that catch the eye.
Carlisle are priced at 2/1 against an Oldham team who have drawn a blank in 4 of their 7 games already. Carlisle have had a reasonable start, only reasonable but I think they have a chance here, just based on the fact that Oldham are so impotent.
Portsmouth 19/20 (this price has dropped drastically, they were 21/20 earlier this aft) travel to Yeovil, sure Pompey will be after promotion but I'm sure they are a far better side than Yeovil who took a 4-1 caning at Doncaster on Saturday and have been ropey from day one.
Crewe 12/5 travel to Accrington, neither team have had a great start to the season but Crewe seem to be making a better fist of it than Accrington. Think the 12/5 on Crewe is generous given that Accrington are nowhere near the team they were last season and they seem to know where the net is, in all 7 games they have scored 11 times and in previous cup ties this season they have knocked out a team from one division higher and ran another from two divisions higher to extra time only losing 4-3.
Carlisle 2/1 Portsmouth 19/20 Crewe 12/5 give a treble at 18/1
 

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:
Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)
8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)
As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.
Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)
8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)
The first two are decent bets, anyway.

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:
Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)
8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)
As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.
Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)
8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)
The first two are decent bets, anyway.

Yes I do. Don't have time at the moment, but League Two has been best for outright wins by underdogs (away, under 4.99). Championship the best league for draws. National used to also be a great league for draws, but not anymore.

Well, all I do is study sides that are large underdogs, home and away. Eight years of Premier League data in my database show the following records by underdogs to favorites of 2.0 or below:
Away dogs up to 3.99: 23-29-42 (24% win, 31% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 64-91-180 (19% win, 27% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 33-39-99 (19% win, 23% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 28-52-150 (12% win, 23% draw)
8.0 and above: 18-18-119 (12% win, 12% draw)
As you can see, draws do better than wins if you're choosing the outright markets, and you'll lose playing handicaps in all cases except the first.
Home dogs up to 3.99: 12-9-13 (35% win, 26% draw)
4.0 to 4.99: 29-47-78 (19% win, 31% draw)
5.0 to 5.99: 20-29-71 (17% win, 24% draw)
6.0 to 7.99: 23-25-81 (18% win, 19% draw)
8.0 and above: 5-8-38 (10% win, 16% draw)
The first two are decent bets, anyway.

Accas are a waste of money in my opinion, no matter who or what you have in them. It's hard enough getting one right, let alone five.
Anyway, based on past experience, either West Brom or Watford will win tomorrow's match outright, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hull finish 1-1.

Accas are a waste of money in my opinion, no matter who or what you have in them. It's hard enough getting one right, let alone five.
Anyway, based on past experience, either West Brom or Watford will win tomorrow's match outright, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hull finish 1-1.

And yours?
 

I don't have a system anymore, exactly, but I sort of do. I count results of large underdogs in various leagues, and when I find leagues where, over four years or so, underdogs at certain fixed odds ranges consistently tend toward outright wins (rather than draws) or draws (rather than wins), I bet such matches accordingly. I also pay attention to the ebb and flow of these leagues...for example, in some leagues the good results tend to bunch at the beginnings of seasons, others in the middle of winter...in some South American leagues, the big upsets occur in the Clausura, for example. In some leagues I'll bet the first four weeks of the season and then won't return again until January.
All of this assumes that the market is accurate. That is, I ignore everything I think I know about teams and players, and missings, and weather, and all those other things that move markets, and focus only on league tendencies and the market's view. One of my favorite fades is in the Johnstone Paint Trophy, where every time a League One side face a League Two side in the round of 16, the odds are completely wrong because the sides are actually closer together in ability than they appear and few managers care about it. I take all away dogs up to 5.99 to a home favorite of under 2.0 in the round of 16 every year, and have just killed that market.
It is maddening sometimes...like Sunday, when I had the draw @ 3.9 in a match in Uruguay, but the home dog won 4-0 @ 5.8...but it works really well in a lot of leagues because you win a lot of bets at 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 and 5.0.