allthethings

It is not a tough competition to crack. You just have to count.
The competition changed format last year, but many of the same issues presented. There are still many League One and Two sides that take the competition seriously, and many that do not; added to that, now, we've got academy sides that have to adhere to different rules (maximum numbers vs minimum numbers, with regard to who must be named to a side).
Another constant is that oddsmakers automatically install favorites based on league position, even though league position doesn't mean a hell of a lot when you have no idea what sort of 11s will be out there. And many times, you see the odds shrink on favorites as bettors pile on, usually because the underdog's manager says something like, "Our first priority is the league."
The thing that has remained constant is an extraordinary number of underdogs win in regulation. Last season I won 10 units in this round...the underdogs (all on away) went 4-3-2, and I was on most of them. Avoiding academy sides away (they haven't surprised, at least so far), that means I will be on Chesterfield and FGA today. I will wait to see how the odds move.

I’m on the X in Leicester and Watford, as well as Blackpool in League One. The toughest button to push was against Spurs, so it’s probably likeliest to come in. EPL odds 3.92 and 3.91; Blackpool at 3.43 but talk about two evenly matched sides, home and away.

OK, so maybe the trick is predicting that you’ll lose.
+8 units

OK, so maybe the trick is predicting that you’ll lose.
+8 units

OK, so maybe the trick is predicting that you’ll lose.
+8 units

I got Fleetwood at 5.53, Swindon at 4.41, and I predict both will get blown out since I posted about them. I’ve long since learned that you win when you don’t post, lose when you do.

Maybe Man U would win anyway, but JFC the keeper caught the free kick but went into the goal with it.
next time punch it, dumbass

It seems to me that you have a good feel for which way to go on these. Keep watching and keep tracking the results.
If a small league the books might be reacting to bets in the market on the opposite team. They can't be looking for much business if not offering odds until 30mins before kick off.

I can also see how it can look like that, and I appreciate the brutally honest comment which is what I prefer people to be like. The true fact is, talent has been picked off on forums for years. However, they usually find writing is a lonely business when there's no community attached to it and often return eventually.

I've made addpea an offer to keep his previews here and he has accepted. He's fully deserving of it as he's contributed to PL for as many years as I can care to remember, so it's right that PL keeps its best talent and grows. The recent re-design and massive additions to the site are a sign of things to come, rewarding long standing members in different ways is what PL has always done and should always do.

On a wider note, I'm trying to come up with a fair scheme for PL members to attract others they know to contributing and get paid for doing so, should they remain active, but I need to define very well first.  

 

Once more into this particular breach, with many overs looking good in the N/S. I've taken a double of Harrogate-Halifax o2.5 and Dartford-Hampton o3, at odds about 3.1. Will mull the others over closer to game time.

Once more into this particular breach, with many overs looking good in the N/S. I've taken a double of Harrogate-Halifax o2.5 and Dartford-Hampton o3, at odds about 3.1. Will mull the others over closer to game time.

My numbers say to take Swans-Spurs o1 in 1H, so I've taken it. The numbers also say NOT to take the same bet in Chelsea-City. I'll almost certainly stay away even if it seems the better match for first-half goals.

Or, you know, zero.

I've taken o1 first half in the Leicester-Sunderland match. I see the home side on their front foot early; whether there are 1 or 2 in the back of the net early remains to be seen.

Maguire's in after all. I should know better than to trust Oxford's own website.

Fylde-Darlington o3 ods 1.78
Not fantastic odds but a decent chance of it, although I usually shy away from two top sides going head to head, which are more often defensive in nature. That isn't these two's thing, though, defense.
The others on my list for overs were Hampton, Eastbourne, Truro, but the odds on offer are all o3, so I'll swerve.

Stalybridge-Telford o2.5 odds 1.88. A bit of value, I think, if you've seen Telford's results against the other bottom sides. And the home side have one clean sheet on the season at home.

Eastbourne-Welling o2.5 odds 1.71 for me. Not the best price, but getting the o2.5 instead of 3.0 is a big deal to me.
I was also mulling over goals in Halifax-Gainsborough, but the odds are set at o3.25 odds 2.21. I'd bite if the line on offer were o3. Considered Fylde-Stockport but feel this could be tight. Depends on Stockport's defense, as they are just 6-11 over/under this season away, the league's lowest ratio. Also thought about Poole-Truro...typically when there's an odds mismatch (Truro at 9.33?) there's a good chance of matches going over, but Poole play so many low-scoring matches I don't know if I have the stomach for praying for a third goal late for a push. 1-0 or 2-0 are definitely possible.

Monaco over 1.5 for me, but I'm hoping for lower-scoring first halfs so I can hit some totals at HT. 

Thanks to addpea for the Macclesfield tip...you saved me from half my overs idiocy, so cheers for that.
Haven't looked deeply into things yet but will be looking at odds for the home dogs, Bath, Margate and Stortford.

Have taken a small stake in the Truro-Gosport over 3.25 @ 2.4 but will take a larger stake when it reaches over 3.

Morecambe look awfully good at 3.0, as they're one of the better away sides facing a really terrible team in Orient. Unless recent transfers suggest otherwise, I'd think Morecambe are extreme value.
Adding: The only match this season where Morecambe were away to a side over 2.0 was Hartlepool, who beat them 3-2. But they are 5-4-4 overall, 5-4-3 when the home side were outright favorites.

Something I've been doing a lot lately, with some success. First half over 1:
Chelsea-Arsenal 1.87
Hull-Liverpool 1.7
Everton-Bournemouth 1.74
You're hoping to avoid a 0-0, of course, and hoping to get lucky with one of the matches. Of the three, the one I like the least is the early match, because we know how uninspiring those can be. But certainly there are a lot of dodgy defenses on display here, and certainly favorites and dogs are motivated to get an edge early...I don't suspect we'll see these sides being cagey.

Something I've been doing a lot lately, with some success. First half over 1:
Chelsea-Arsenal 1.87
Hull-Liverpool 1.7
Everton-Bournemouth 1.74
You're hoping to avoid a 0-0, of course, and hoping to get lucky with one of the matches. Of the three, the one I like the least is the early match, because we know how uninspiring those can be. But certainly there are a lot of dodgy defenses on display here, and certainly favorites and dogs are motivated to get an edge early...I don't suspect we'll see these sides being cagey.

Kind of silly to count plays by percentage won, don't you think? I won my only posted play at 4.68, doesn't have much in common with winning one at 1.4