allthethings

I think Rangers could take something from the big match, and I'd be inclined toward the outright win.
Going back to 2011 in my database, home dogs of up to 3.99 in SPL win 30% and draw 23%, and of course these are matches that don't involve Celtic, because they very typically play away at 1.12 or something to dogs of 9.00 and 10.00 and 11.00. Their closest rivals are priced at 5.50 at home, not 3.75, which is where Rangers are at the moment. In my database, Celtic have only faced one home dog in the range of up to 3.99...and they lost that one, to Aberdeen.
Home dogs against Celtic this season are 2-2-11, but I'm interested in how it has gone week by week. Rangers lost at home 0-2 in week 7 as a dog of 5.68, and all home dogs were 0-0-7 through week 14. Motherwell got a 1-1 draw in a replay after week 15 as a dog of 10.00, Hibs got a 2-2 draw in week 17 as a dog of 5.46, and then Hearts won in week 19 as a dog of 9.44. Kilmarnock won in week 26 as a dog of 10.16.
Now, Rangers have lost plenty at home as big favorites, too, but Celtic seem to have lost some of their luster as the season has gone on. As I said, I think the win is marked. Going back to my numbers...league-wide, home dogs of up to 3.99 are 10-7-14, and home dogs of 4.00 to 4.99 are 19-12-50, again more wins than draws. That's a total of 29-19-64. Celtic's opponents in that group are 5-1-7. The win for me...5dimes has them at 4.08 at the moment.

Thinking about grabbing Stevenage at 4.16, though I might wait and see if it goes up any further...and I might just swerve. Notts County's run of generally poor form hasn't eased all that much, although they remain a force at home. They've been favorites of under 2.00 at home seven times this season, and have gone just 3-2-2, losing recently to Exeter and Crawley. Stevenage are really awful away from home...if they were to beat County it would be the biggest scalp for them all year.
The only play I feel really good about is Walsall-Blackburn X at 3.60.

Team illness, but anyway even though it’s a total overreaction to the news, at 1.98 I’d leave it alone.

Gainsborough 3.89. They’re 6-1-6 at home in a league in which home dogs in this odds range win almost a third of the time.

Watford overpriced at 4.19, so I'm on them. They're on a long run of poor away form, but the Cup is just different.

Barnet 4.55 away to Cheltenham. There really hasn't been that much of a change from last year to this, except that Barnet can't win away. I'm going to take a shot at this borderline ridiculous price.
Crewe 4.85 away to Swindon. Same story, and though I expect Swindon to start putting together a decent string of wins at home, they fit right into League Two with a much better mark away than at home.

Taken one a bit early for me...Plymouth 4.12 away to Oldham, who they've beaten convincingly earlier in the season. Plymouth's wins are few, but they're nearly all against sides clustered at the bottom of the table, so this strikes me as a really good price.

Morecambe used to be a great away side, but rarely win away these days...the one thing that might lead me to support them here is Newport's Cup match Saturday against Spurs. I'm really hoping the odds lengthen in Bradford's match at Rotherham, because I'd surely support the away side at 3.7 or better. They're 3.2 now.

Notts County have drifted down into the 1.95 range, and it's easy to see why. They're unbeaten at home and face an Exeter side that can't win away lately, which is not the typical League Two story. Anyway, a few things interest me about this match. County are in second, in the automatic promotion spots, and they've strengthened their squad in the transfer window. But they're going to give starts to three new players today, which I have to think is not the best way to integrate your lineup in a way that doesn't put a hitch in the cohesion that got you where you are. Exeter got beaten badly at home by County earlier in the year, and aside from a meltdown a couple years ago involving a sending-off and two goals in injury time, Exeter would've been 2-0 at County in League Two. I'll take a shot at a generous 4.04 for Exeter to break their current funk...with a win and a few other results going their way they could actually leap into the automatic promotion spots themselves.

My plays:
Carlisle 6.12
Stevenage 6.83
Mansfield X 3.59
I took Mansfield earlier at +0.25 at 3.17 odds, before I realized that they'd become an actual home dog above 4.00. Oh, well.
By the way, no one has mentioned that Stevenage beat Doncaster and Reading away in the FAC back when they were in League One. This puts me off a bit...sides don't typically repeat upsets like that. Again, oh well.

I don't ascribe anything to that...in a year in which the favorites were all away or all at home, what would the numbers tell you? There is so much variance from round to round, year to year. Actually, people have said the same to me about what I do, and I agree that past trends don't predict future results (as they say with regard to stocks). But public perception is pretty consistent, and pretty consistently wrong, and odds, which reflect public perception, fall into certain patterns. For example, I've started quantifying seasonal tendencies, such as the first weeks after the winter break...but they're still based on odds, rather than roulette (if black wins ten times in a row, it has to win red now!).

By the way, if you just look at odds in the replay, it looks a bit different. Here's the record of away dogs to a favorite of under 2.00 in the round of 32, sorted by away odds level:
Up to 3.99 0-0-3
4.0 to 4.99 2-5-5
5.0 to 5.99 0-1-6 (Carlisle). The one draw was Crystal Palace 5.85, lost at Stoke 4-1 in ET in 2013.
6.0 to 7.99 2-0-6 (Shrews, Stevenage). The two wins were Kidderminster and Sutton, as noted above.
8.0 and up 0-2-6 (Fleetwood). The two draws were Droylsden 8.1 at Orient, lost 8-2 after ET, Reading 13.22 beat Liverpool in ET, both in 2010.
Carlisle and Stevenage are in the group of sides that have gone 2-0-0 (3-3-1 overall) in this situation. Shrews are in a group that have gone 0-1-9, 0-1-3 or some such, depending on how you sort it.

Cardiff are currently priced at 2.13. Mansfield got the draw as a huge dog of 7.05 in the first match. Let's sort this one two ways.
Mansfield have the second highest odds among sides who don't face a prohibitive favorite  of 2.00 or less in the replay. The home sides of better than 3.00 in this group have gone 5-4-4 (1-1-2 in the round of 32).
They are also among the sides in this group that had the highest odds away in the first match (7.05). Sides that were above 6.00 away in the first match and then played a side away of over 2.00 odds went 2-3-1 in the replay, 1-2-1 in the round 32.
This seems like a crapshoot. Swerve.

Shrewsbury belongs to a group where they managed a draw at home in a match where the opponent's odds were over 2.0. Using all of these matches, the away dogs in the replay went 2-5-15 if their odds were greater than 5.00, but 1-4-4 if their odds were greater than 5.80 and just 0-1-3 if their odds were greater than 6.00 (Shrews are currently 6.83). However, in the round of 32, they've gone 0-1-9 (they went 0-3-3 in round of 64 matches). I would swerve, because history suggests that as the field gets winnowed, the minnows do less well.
There's one other way to sort the data...among all the first matches where neither side was even money or better, there are a group (which includes Shrews) that had odds of greater than 3.00 at home, meaning their opponents weren't huge favorites with odds in the 2.01 to 2.30 range or so. Sides with odds away of greater than 5.00 went 1-3-11, those with odds of greater than 6.00 went 0-1-3. Swerve.

I'm not sure I have any thoughts, but I do have numbers.
I spent some time isolating the FA Cup replays from the larger database of FA Cup matches. I'll post as I go through it...I'm home in bed, medicated, after throwing out my back somehow.
So here's a rhetorical question: You managed a draw at home as an underdog to a prohibitive favorite (odds 2.00 or under). In the replay, you're away and now a bigger underdog: Today, you're Stevenage and Carlisle.
My data goes back to 2010-11. There have been seven previous matches where the dog is under 6.5 away (the three dogs with even higher odds lost and didn't score).
Everton (6.30) drew at Chelsea, won on penalties in 2011 in the round of 16. Two premier squads, maybe not a huge surprise.
Sutton (6.23) beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 last season in the round of 32.
Kidderminster (6.21) won at Peterborough 3-2 in 2014 in the round of 32.
Redbridge (5.81) drew at Oxford City, won in ET in 2014 in the round of 128.
Woking (5.66) won 3-0 at Bury this year in the round of 128.
Notts County (5.62) lost 2-0 at Peterborough last season in the round of 64.
Lincoln City (4.94) drew at Walsall, won in ET in 2012 in the round of 128.
This is a huge surprise to me. Away dogs with odds under 6.50, who were also home dogs in the first match, went 3-3-1 overall, including 2-0-0 in this round. I believe in most cases these are matches featuring sides from different leagues.
More as I dig stuff up.
 

Not my fault those idiots renamed the cups so that we could never keep them straight again.

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.

"For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015."
@allthethings - one reason is because since the last 2/3 seasons fixtures have congested a lot - teams don't want to face a replay, and go all out for the win. If you look at the fixtures you mentioned, the dogs won because they are classically counterattacking teams - Leicester, Burnley, Walsall...
 
 

Fascinating odds movement today, dunno if anyone saw it. When I first looked at the overs in the Man Utd match, the odds on offer for o2.5 was 1.8. By the time it kicked off, the odds on offer were o3 for 1.8. The odds in the Liverpool match started at about 1.9 for o3, ended at 1.7 for o2.5.
So of course the match with the money flooding toward overs finished under, and vice versa.
For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015.
One thing I will say is that the odds already reflect sides that have recent success, like Swans. Rarely do these tendencies carry over from season to season...you have much better luck selecting a side that comes seemingly out of nowhere.
Regardless...tomorrow looking at Peterborough, Wigan and Dons away, Carlisle and Coventry at home, among a few others. I'll pull the trigger close to kickoff after seeing where the money goes...typically I do the opposite.

Fascinating odds movement today, dunno if anyone saw it. When I first looked at the overs in the Man Utd match, the odds on offer for o2.5 was 1.8. By the time it kicked off, the odds on offer were o3 for 1.8. The odds in the Liverpool match started at about 1.9 for o3, ended at 1.7 for o2.5.
So of course the match with the money flooding toward overs finished under, and vice versa.
For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015.
One thing I will say is that the odds already reflect sides that have recent success, like Swans. Rarely do these tendencies carry over from season to season...you have much better luck selecting a side that comes seemingly out of nowhere.
Regardless...tomorrow looking at Peterborough, Wigan and Dons away, Carlisle and Coventry at home, among a few others. I'll pull the trigger close to kickoff after seeing where the money goes...typically I do the opposite.

Sadly, I stayed away, but good for you. I would’ve been hating the pick for a good many minutes, I can say that.

My Carabao Cup numbers going back to 2005 show a wild quarterfinal round. All numbers involve favorites of under 2.00...away underdogs of up to 7.99 have gone 5-0-4, away underdogs of better than 8.00 have gone 0-2-4.
This doesn't totally gibe with all rounds as a whole, where typically it's the dogs in the 3.5 to 4.99 range that upset favorites. And the previous round of 8 typically throws up draws. Anyway, it's a small subset of games, but the difference has been marked.
The five quarterfinal wins: Wycombe (7.28) 1-0 at Chelsea, 2006; West Ham (7.72) 2-1 at Tottenham , 2013; Derby (5.02) 1-0 at Stoke, 2008; Arsenal (4.43) 6-3 at Liverpool, 2006; Blackburn (3.29) 1-0 at Middlesbrough, 2005. One more was close, with the favorite just above 2.00: Aston Villa (3.58) 4-1 at Norwich, 2012.
So anyway, West Ham today is currently 6.03 at Arsenal. It's worth mentioning Arsenal's dodgy record away in the QF round of this event: Doncaster (6.83) in 2005, Bradford (9.32) in 2012, both drew at home against Arsenal; Burnley (4.32) won at home against Arsenal in 2008. Arsenal at home have only been a big home favorite once in this round: 2010, when they won 2-0 against Wigan (13.00).
I don't know if I'll take them, but I'd consider West Ham the only dog worth backing in this round, based solely on history.

+6.2 units today

+6.2 units today