allthethings

At 22', taken Edinburgh City to score over 1.5 goals at 3.40. They're dominating possession at 65%, 2-0 in corners, have had two offsides. Think there's a decent chance they get 2 no matter what else happens.

I've taken Edinburgh City to win at 4.95 and +0.5 at 2.20. Linn isn't in the starting XI for Arbroath but the odds are remaining high (4.62 average) because of league position, which I think is dumb.

I was fooled by the presence of a section that said "Scotland." Carry on.

In Scotland today, Dundee 4.09 home to Kilmarnock, who are priced as if they were Hearts; Queen's Park 4.11 home to Clyde (pure value), and Brechin away to Airdrie 3.49.

Carlisle to win at Oldham at 4.00 represents a lot of value given that this is League Two, and Carlisle like a lot of League Two sides are better away than at home.

In Scotland today, Dundee 4.09 home to Kilmarnock, who are priced as if they were Hearts; Queen's Park 4.11 home to Clyde (pure value), and Brechin away to Airdrie 3.49.

Carlisle to win at Oldham at 4.00 represents a lot of value given that this is League Two, and Carlisle like a lot of League Two sides are better away than at home.

The odds were strange enough that in the end I was only able to get 3.55 for the draw. And also, late money made the draw in Rotherham a play, too, but I missed it prior to kickoff. I could have taken it at far reduced odds about 20 minutes in, but at the time the match was very unbalanced with Rotherham dominating the stats, so I let it go. 

In the early matches I'm on Rosenborg-RB Leipzig X @ 4.00. I will be on RB Salzburg-Celtic X @ ridiculously good odds of 4.35 only if money starts to flow in to Celtic. As things stand now (6.01), they fall out of my system.
 

In the early matches I'm on Rosenborg-RB Leipzig X @ 4.00. I will be on RB Salzburg-Celtic X @ ridiculously good odds of 4.35 only if money starts to flow in to Celtic. As things stand now (6.01), they fall out of my system.
 

Sheff Wednesday are drifting out, and as a big home dog I like them to get a draw against West Brom. The price is about 3.67 now.

And Peterborough too, actually. They've dismantled everyone on the away so far, so Sunderland should be a good test. But 3.66?

Two weeks of taking the gaspipe in Leagues One and Two haven't dimmed my enthusiasm for underdogs...I mean, they'll win eventually, right? Right?
Looking at Grimsby, Yeovil, Oldham. We'll see what the odds do.

I was working so missed the 4.07 line, but about seven minutes in, I took Chelsea at 3.75. I also took o1 at the half.

These are the key points that should make you consider getting 4.00 or better for a side of Chelsea's quality. When you say or acknowledge Liverpool are the better side, you're talking about a different Liverpool and a different Chelsea. Away sides win a third of the time in the round of 16 at such odds, though in this round those matches don't typically represent two top sides against each other. Chelsea have never been a big dog in this competition, so it's new ground for them.
Don't know yet whether I'll be on them, but 4.00+ is a lot of value.

Last year when Leicester won at home in this round against Liverpool, it brought the record of home dogs of around 3.5 to 4.99 to 8-2-9 in this round over the past dozen seasons. So consequently if Burnley and Norwich stay priced at under 2.00 I'll be on Burton and Wycombe to win.

I can only offer some historical perspective. Round 1 is the best of the six rounds for draws by big dogs. For away dogs of up to 5.99, the record of the dogs from 2007 to the present is 6-15-18. For home dogs of up to 5.99, the record is 1-7-13.
I'm going to hazard a guess that the reason for all the dropped points by favorites is more on the oddsmakers than on the sides. Meaning, in group play, in the midst of young seasons, where the participants are there because of what they did last season (or in qualifying)...and people are just guessing who is better, who is more motivated, etc. My entire theory is based on the notion that the odds already have everything current baked into them...not that the oddsmakers are always 'right,' but that the market moves match odds similarly based on injuries, weather, h2h, etc. Anyway, the draws are very marked in this case; the better sides are the better sides, and since this is CL group play where the object is to get three points (and there's no second leg to think about), sides don't press to win 4-0 and 'put the tie away'...the matches tend to be close, so dropped points usually means draws and not losses. Except for matches involving Arsenal. Kidding!
Today (as the odds currently stand) that's Brugge, Monaco, Red Star, Loko Moscow.
Tomorrow: Hoffenheim, Valencia, YB
Seven matches, odds around 3.80. If you played them all, you'd need two draws to show a profit. Last year there were three draws in five; the previous year five draws in eight. The year before that it was one draw in seven (with three outright wins by dogs...one of the years when it didn't work, at all).
If you only take two or three draws, take the ones you least expect to happen (or take the draws in the matches where there's a public favorite).
My best advice, though, is if you think a favorite's odds are too low, and you're considering taking the dog double chance at 1.80, take the draw instead at 3.80. You'll kick yourself if the dog wins it outright, but as you can see that doesn't happen that often. And there's no money long-term in taking anything at 1.80.

Going with three draws today: Monaco, Red Star, Loko M. I'm not greedy, I'll take one.

I can only offer some historical perspective. Round 1 is the best of the six rounds for draws by big dogs. For away dogs of up to 5.99, the record of the dogs from 2007 to the present is 6-15-18. For home dogs of up to 5.99, the record is 1-7-13.
I'm going to hazard a guess that the reason for all the dropped points by favorites is more on the oddsmakers than on the sides. Meaning, in group play, in the midst of young seasons, where the participants are there because of what they did last season (or in qualifying)...and people are just guessing who is better, who is more motivated, etc. My entire theory is based on the notion that the odds already have everything current baked into them...not that the oddsmakers are always 'right,' but that the market moves match odds similarly based on injuries, weather, h2h, etc. Anyway, the draws are very marked in this case; the better sides are the better sides, and since this is CL group play where the object is to get three points (and there's no second leg to think about), sides don't press to win 4-0 and 'put the tie away'...the matches tend to be close, so dropped points usually means draws and not losses. Except for matches involving Arsenal. Kidding!
Today (as the odds currently stand) that's Brugge, Monaco, Red Star, Loko Moscow.
Tomorrow: Hoffenheim, Valencia, YB
Seven matches, odds around 3.80. If you played them all, you'd need two draws to show a profit. Last year there were three draws in five; the previous year five draws in eight. The year before that it was one draw in seven (with three outright wins by dogs...one of the years when it didn't work, at all).
If you only take two or three draws, take the ones you least expect to happen (or take the draws in the matches where there's a public favorite).
My best advice, though, is if you think a favorite's odds are too low, and you're considering taking the dog double chance at 1.80, take the draw instead at 3.80. You'll kick yourself if the dog wins it outright, but as you can see that doesn't happen that often. And there's no money long-term in taking anything at 1.80.

Bradford 4.12 away at Fleetwood...tremendous odds movement toward the home side, who have gotten off to a far better start than Bradford, but these are still two sides who get better results away than at home, and Bradford own a good h2h. I'll take the value.
Cheltenham 3.82 home to Colchester. Seems value to me in a league where when they get a result, home dogs tend to win early in the season, draw late in the season.

My 10-year database shows a marked advantage for big underdogs away who drew their first leg...depending on the closing odds, Gent, Trencin and Partizan have value here. Of these, Trencin I think is the most underrated.

Eng-Cro is a strange semi, in that neither side seem to be able to consistently function as well as we think they will.

England's speed is difficult for anyone to match up with, and yet in virtually every match their pace hasn't settled matters...their scores are coming on individual matchups in the area, leading to a PK, or in the air. Croatia's midfield is their most attractive feature, and they're supposed to be able to dominate in the middle of the pitch, and yet they've disappeared in two KOs after knotting the score 1-1.

My read on this match sounds like a bad mashup of my read on previous matches...England's pace will be hard for Croatia to contend with, and Croatia's midfield will dictate the flow of the match. Whatever. What I would say is that Croatia have scraped by in their two KOs, whereas England have been in control of theirs. It took a late strike for Colombia to get it to extra time in the first KO, and Sweden were never in the second. Meanwhile, you look at Croatia's ridiculous number of shots in comparison with the final scores, and you think, how wasteful! If only they had a real finisher on their squad. But it also means they're putting enormous pressure on their opponents, and should one of those 22 shots get by the keeper...;

I would say Croatia's defense has allowed many more dangerous situations than has England's, but how many people began this WC confident about England's defense?

It is definitely too close of a match to call. Will England score first, and then attempt to score again, rather than let Croatia stay in the match? If Croatia score first, can England equalize from the field?

My money will be on the draw. I don't see how you can call this one with any confidence in 90. Or 120.

It's a fairly rare occurrence for playoff matches to have heavy favorites. All the sides are good at getting a result away even on their off days. Twenty-one of 67 playoff games since 2005 have featured a favorite of under 2.00 in this league, and the dogs have gone 5-5-11.
But all my numbers reflect the old playoff setup, with nearly all of the big favorites in second-leg semifinal matches. Thanks to the league for rendering my numbers virtually meaningless. I can tell you 21 of 67 have been won by 2+ goals, and eight of those were won by the side with the bigger odds. So 13 of 67 have been favorites winning by 2+ goals...19%. Among the big favorites, it's seven of 21, or 33%.

It’s a hunch, I guess. Rochdale have scraped together draws as a home favorite, while Plymouth are 5-5-3 as an away dog this season, which is amazing.

I think Rangers could take something from the big match, and I'd be inclined toward the outright win.
Going back to 2011 in my database, home dogs of up to 3.99 in SPL win 30% and draw 23%, and of course these are matches that don't involve Celtic, because they very typically play away at 1.12 or something to dogs of 9.00 and 10.00 and 11.00. Their closest rivals are priced at 5.50 at home, not 3.75, which is where Rangers are at the moment. In my database, Celtic have only faced one home dog in the range of up to 3.99...and they lost that one, to Aberdeen.
Home dogs against Celtic this season are 2-2-11, but I'm interested in how it has gone week by week. Rangers lost at home 0-2 in week 7 as a dog of 5.68, and all home dogs were 0-0-7 through week 14. Motherwell got a 1-1 draw in a replay after week 15 as a dog of 10.00, Hibs got a 2-2 draw in week 17 as a dog of 5.46, and then Hearts won in week 19 as a dog of 9.44. Kilmarnock won in week 26 as a dog of 10.16.
Now, Rangers have lost plenty at home as big favorites, too, but Celtic seem to have lost some of their luster as the season has gone on. As I said, I think the win is marked. Going back to my numbers...league-wide, home dogs of up to 3.99 are 10-7-14, and home dogs of 4.00 to 4.99 are 19-12-50, again more wins than draws. That's a total of 29-19-64. Celtic's opponents in that group are 5-1-7. The win for me...5dimes has them at 4.08 at the moment.