allthethings

I'm the guy who had Leicester to draw and Brighton to win, so don't listen to me. But 3/1 for Pool is pretty much a must-take.

Watford should win...they lose to top sides, win against bottom sides...and Newcastle have gotten results mainly against bottom sides. However, Newcastle are a different side since they beat Watford the first time to begin their current run of form...three points in their first 10, 14 points since then in nine matches. If a shock win is going to happen this week by a big away dog, it'll be this one. Newcastle for me at 5.36

Used The Google.
 
MATERA-REGGINA - What can happen? The hypotheses and all the regulations
24.12.2018 18:27  by  Redazione Tuttoreggina  Twitter:  @tuttoreggina     The players of Matera have officially called the strike for the day of December 26, when the match against Reggina is scheduled . Of course, you have to go slowly with the headlines " do not play, 0-3 at the table ", because it would serve to know the rules.
What could happen? In any case, the Reggina must leave for Matera and must present itself at the XXI Settembre stadium in the timetable in which the race is scheduled, at 2.30 pm.
WHO SCIOPERA - The players who signed the appropriate form to the AIC union join the strike, the others have only the right to speak and, if necessary, are not protected in relation to the right to strike (but here we go into other subjects ...). Basically it can not strike all registered players who have an existing contract of apprenticeship or youth, therefore, all players with a professional contract.
WHAT MAY HAPPEN - If the players of Matera (always remember, those who have joined the Italian Footballers Association) confirm their desire to strike, the company may decide not to show up or deploy in the field training Berretti. In the past few days, both Ghirelli and his deputy Tognon had been clear: "We do not accept any request for postponement of matches".
CASE DIFFERENT FROM PRO PIACENZA - Matera is a diametrically different case from that of Pro Piacenza. The Emiliani do not have, to date, even a stadium where to dispute their internal competitions, since the Garilli was banned then were not paid a few installments of rent. The Piacenza company then never thought about the possibility of deploying the Berretti and the coach of the youth training has excluded this eventuality for the next challenges.

They couldn’t score against a university team in the county cup so not a surprise they failed against a senior team. I’ve not seen anything like it and people were backing them as if they couldn’t lose and didn’t care what price they took. I was just explaining why they prices were as they were. After not backing them on Sunday as I should have done and then not seeing the team news straight away I missed out and just couldn’t bring myself to back them at  odds on.

I'd put this in the FA Cup thread in my haste...three of my underdogs won outright, the bastards, but with the Bedford draw at 5/1, I only lost 1 unit going 1-6.
 
What I ended up with...all draws:
Leamington 3.45
Stockport 3.40
Bath 3.45
Halifax 3.35
DagRed 3.75
York 4.01
Bedford 6.00

Correct, but mostly for smaller underdogs in the range of up to 4.99. Accordingly, I'm on Jablonec at 4.55 among the early kickoffs.

They didn't. Oldham match is off, Walsall odds plunged, and only Southend remains. Average dropped from 5.30 to 3.73. I see it at 4.14 so am taking it now.

Stockport 4.96, Scnuthorpe 4.29
History of outright wins by underdogs in this round and in this range (up to 4.99 away), and these are the only two to fit the bill this year.

It has fallen off my list once the favorite is above 2.00 (Chester are 2.12 now).
I pay attention only to large underdogs to favorites of below 2.00...using closing lines. I try to make wagers close to kickoff for this reason, and occasionally I end up taking a side that I shouldn't have. Anecdotally it feels like when this happens the favorite wins more often than not, but that may just be sour grapes.
As odds currently stand, there are six big dogs among the replays, and I expect four of them to get a result.

Nobody cares about this competition but me...64th round Replays are tomorrow, and you know what? Favorites do not win. Period. Have a nice day.

Now that Barnet's odds have dropped to under 8.00, they're a decent draw bet. 43% draws in this range. Bristol were one of the victims, drawing in 90 against Crawley before winning in ET. In fact, all three of the draw teams lost in ET.

In 10 years of counting replays, all dogs priced at 8.00 and greater are 2-5-34...5% wins and 12% draws. In the round of 128, they're 1-1-9 (9% wins, 9% draws). I'd say you can trust them both.

In 10 years of counting replays, all dogs priced at 8.00 and greater are 2-5-34...5% wins and 12% draws. In the round of 128, they're 1-1-9 (9% wins, 9% draws). I'd say you can trust them both.

Odds will change, but at the moment, among the big dogs, Mansfield and Ebbsfleet are the best draw bets, and Aldershot is the best for an outright win.
Among the matches that don't involve a favorite of under 2.0, Crawley and Slough are decent bets to win outright.

2-3, +4.5 units. Cheltenham and Port Vale won...I played the Portsmouth draw at a bit less than the others, which accounts for the extra half unit won.

Fleetwood 3.49, Plymouth 5.37, Cheltenham 3.59
Decided against Bradford and they've taken the early lead.

Port Vale 4.80
Looking at Fleetwood, Plymouth, Cheltenham, maybe Crawley. Bradford price is coming down, but probably not low enough.

Still waiting on final odds, but I'm taking one right now: Portsmouth-Tottenham u21 X at 3.98. I think, seeing Tottenham's odds go from 3.5 to 4.66, people have forgotten that a draw will see both sides to the knockouts, provided that Crawley don't win their match by six goals.

Yes, exactly. As someone who looks for value all the Cups offer lots of it.
My 10-year database shows a tendency toward draws, but a few places where wins happen with some frequency. My current short list for today:
Draws: Bromley, Grimsby, Wycombe, Slough
Wins: Northampton, Halifax
Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Southport
Sunday/Monday:
Draws: Chorley, Guiseley, Hitchin, Weston, Port Vale, H&R
Wins: Salford
Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Barnet

Din Kyiv 4.22

Sporting ML 3.98
Zurich X 3.90
Bordeaux X 3.77
 

Away dogs up to 5.99 get draws about 35% of the time in this round over the 10 years I've been keeping track, and the same is true of big home dogs of up to 4.99 (more like 40%). Betis, Vorskla, Sporting, Zurich, and Bordeaux are all in these ranges. I'd consider Zurich and Betis to be the most likely based on past results.

Accrington 5.65, Burton 5.75, Walsall 3.80, Charlton-Oxford X 4.00

League One is more of a draw league, so subsequently I'm looking at Charlton-Oxford and Portsmouth-Burton. But there are a couple here that might attract me to taking an outright win by a big dog. Walsall at Southend is a pretty glaring example, but even better odds exist for Accrington at Luton. These two finished 1-2 in League Two last season, and accordingly the h2h is skewed toward the away side (each won away last season). This season, as last, Luton has the gaudy home record, but Stanley are 4-2-1 away, including wins at Peterborough and Walsall.

Left the house Saturday before I could post up Port Vale and Crewe...both won away...and my tendency is to lay off the week after such things happen. But I may take Cheltenham today away at Oldham. This is classic League Two pricing that ignores the fact that over the past decade this is the best of all the UK leagues with regard to big dogs winning away, for the simple fact that about two-thirds of the sides play better away than at home. This is true today...both of these sides have had better success away than at home, and as they haven't met in a decade there's no way you can have Cheltenham at 4.03 as they are now.