allthethings

MK Dons X 4.10, Bolton X 4.45

What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0:
Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07
Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11
Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09
Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14
Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13
Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06
In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite.
Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win three times as a favorite at this point in the competition.
 

What will happen, who knows. What has happened is interesting. Go back 15 years in this competition, and away favorites of under 2.00 do not perform well in the first leg of the semis. Home dogs have gone 4-2-0:
Wycombe 9.90 1-1 Chelsea 2006-07
Ipswich 9.44 1-0 Arsenal 2010-11
Derby 7.79 1-0 Man Utd 2008-09
Sunderland 4.84 2-1 Man Utd 2013-14
Bradford 4.27 3-1 Aston Villa 2012-13
Blackburn 3.47 1-1 Man Utd 2005-06
In all six, leg two was won at home by the overwhelming favorite.
Will be interesting to see how Man U do as a dog, as they failed to win three times as a favorite at this point in the competition.
 

Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 

Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 

Also Derby 5.38, Northampton 6.03
As with Sheff Wednesday yesterday, these prices are insane 

If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.

If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.

If Chelsea win, Valencia must win, but Ajax need only draw to advance. I think the 4.50 or so on offer for the X in Ajax and Inter will be too good to pass up.

In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.

In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.

In general, if you think Arsenal will be hard-pressed to get a win (I have WHU to win at 3.60), it is better to take either the win or the draw rather than DNB. Yes, it is no fun being right and losing your stake, but you'll do better over time by going for the higher priced option (whichever you choose). With DNB you're basically making the same bet, but you don't win anything if the match ends in a draw. Think of it this way, you have a 60% or 65% chance of being right, but only a 30% chance of cashing the ticket. And if you guess right, you'll win 2.5 times your stake or 3 times your stake.
I thought about taking the draw, as it's even higher priced at 4.12, but home dogs in EPL at this range of odds get outright wins at a slightly higher rate than draws.

Might as well tell you I will in all likelihood be on Zagreb at 5/1 away to Atalanta. Zagreb beat them 4-0 in their first match and sit on 5 points with Donetsk, and I fairly don't believe Atalanta have much to play for at this point.

Hello all, been away for a while...lost my job, for one thing. Applications, interviews dominate my time these days.
Why on earth are Loko Moscow 3/1 at home against Neverkusen? Loko won away in the first match against them, and with both on 3 points, either can put themselves in the driver's seat for the Europa League slot. Home dogs in the latter rounds of this competition are fairly solid, too. Lokomotiv Moskva @ 3.90 (5dimes)

Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well.
The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal.
Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.

Carlisle 3.88 in League Two
Stirling 3.80, Queen's Park 4.10 in Scotland
Running late, sorry

Typical. Betis press and press and press for an equalizer, give up a third goal on the last kick of the match.

Oldham-Doncaster X 3.78
Brighton-West Brom X 3.90

Noice!

I think you'd have to be a bit mad to put money on this match, to be honest. With a 9-0 first leg in the books, you just have no idea who shows up on either side.
In my strategy, nothing under 3.50 or so is ever worth taking, on any match. In this kind of match, City *might* turn up and cover a handicap, but is it really worth the risk at even money? I'd be far more inclined to take the home side at 16.00...it's as probable as any other result, and for a great profit.
To be clear, I'm not taking anything here. I'm saying that under these crazy circumstances, you can't honestly say that any punt is more than 50-50 Taking a bet at 2.00 is a coin flip. Using my logic, if it's really a coin flip, go for the better odds.

I think you'd have to be a bit mad to put money on this match, to be honest. With a 9-0 first leg in the books, you just have no idea who shows up on either side.
In my strategy, nothing under 3.50 or so is ever worth taking, on any match. In this kind of match, City *might* turn up and cover a handicap, but is it really worth the risk at even money? I'd be far more inclined to take the home side at 16.00...it's as probable as any other result, and for a great profit.
To be clear, I'm not taking anything here. I'm saying that under these crazy circumstances, you can't honestly say that any punt is more than 50-50 Taking a bet at 2.00 is a coin flip. Using my logic, if it's really a coin flip, go for the better odds.

Just can't seem to get Halifax right. Had them in November to win at Morecambe in the FA Cup...they drew 0-0 to force a replay...and had them in the league to win at Gateshead during Christmas week, but they could only get a 1-1 draw. In between, I had them to draw away at Barrow in the FA Trophy, but they get an 88' goal to win 1-2.
I was all set to take draw in today's replay at Solihull, but with the odds now having dropped below 4.00, the proper play is outright win. I will be waiting until close to kick to decide which of these I'll take.

There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money.
Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.

There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money.
Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.

Tiffy's right about 4/1 underdogs, but let me flesh that out with numbers from the past decade. Dogs of up to 4.99 tend toward draws when they get a result in the round of 32, and dogs of 5.00-5.99 tend toward wins. That's true of both home and away dogs. My database is built with closing odds (from Betexplorer), so you'll have to see what happens between now and kickoff.