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Everything posted by allthethings

  1. In 10 years of counting replays, all dogs priced at 8.00 and greater are 2-5-34...5% wins and 12% draws. In the round of 128, they're 1-1-9 (9% wins, 9% draws). I'd say you can trust them both.
  2. Odds will change, but at the moment, among the big dogs, Mansfield and Ebbsfleet are the best draw bets, and Aldershot is the best for an outright win. Among the matches that don't involve a favorite of under 2.0, Crawley and Slough are decent bets to win outright.
  3. 2-3, +4.5 units. Cheltenham and Port Vale won...I played the Portsmouth draw at a bit less than the others, which accounts for the extra half unit won.
  4. Fleetwood 3.49, Plymouth 5.37, Cheltenham 3.59 Decided against Bradford and they've taken the early lead.
  5. Port Vale 4.80 Looking at Fleetwood, Plymouth, Cheltenham, maybe Crawley. Bradford price is coming down, but probably not low enough.
  6. Still waiting on final odds, but I'm taking one right now: Portsmouth-Tottenham u21 X at 3.98. I think, seeing Tottenham's odds go from 3.5 to 4.66, people have forgotten that a draw will see both sides to the knockouts, provided that Crawley don't win their match by six goals.
  7. Has not been a good year during group play. The academies are doing way better than usual as dogs (I've laid off), while the League dogs are falling meekly...this is the opposite of what usually happens, although to be fair group play is only in its third season and maybe the academy sides have just figured it out. Don't know. Port Vale and Plymouth should be decent bets...Tottenham u-21 to get a draw...but will see what the odds do. I feel like Bradford's price is absurd...all of these sides are going to make changes, whether they're able to advance or not.
  8. Got to disagree with you on this. 44 percent draws in the first round by big dogs is massive. The overall percentage of lesser sides getting something from matches was in line with historical norms, though typically a couple of those draws would have been outright wins.
  9. 3-6, +2.9 units Slough and Crawley with the draw, Southport with the win. Halifax had a goal on the scoreboard at about 92', but it was corrected and the match finished 0-0...offside, I presume.
  10. Yes, exactly. As someone who looks for value all the Cups offer lots of it. My 10-year database shows a tendency toward draws, but a few places where wins happen with some frequency. My current short list for today: Draws: Bromley, Grimsby, Wycombe, Slough Wins: Northampton, Halifax Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Southport Sunday/Monday: Draws: Chorley, Guiseley, Hitchin, Weston, Port Vale, H&R Wins: Salford Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Barnet
  11. Taken Liverpool o1.5 for the second half, and for a goal to be scored in the first 15 minutes.
  12. Like draws in both these matches but will start with the first: Hearts-Celtic X 4.07
  13. L2 Crawley 3.83 L1 AFC Wimbledon-Luton X 3.53, Sunderland-Southend X 3.40 Wasn't gonna take Southend, but I guess it barely got over the line for me. I really like the other two. Luton drew half their matches away last season while getting promoted...this is a good spot for Wimbledon to get something. Crawley are not winning away this season as much as I like yet, but they have to turn the corner sometime.
  14. Away dogs up to 5.99 get draws about 35% of the time in this round over the 10 years I've been keeping track, and the same is true of big home dogs of up to 4.99 (more like 40%). Betis, Vorskla, Sporting, Zurich, and Bordeaux are all in these ranges. I'd consider Zurich and Betis to be the most likely based on past results.
  15. It dropped like a stone, all the way to 3.98, but the sending-off was decisive.
  16. Accrington 5.65, Burton 5.75, Walsall 3.80, Charlton-Oxford X 4.00
  17. Cheltenham have drifted out to 4.74, and as I expect it to come down when people realize who's missing from the Oldham squad, I've taken it now.
  18. League One is more of a draw league, so subsequently I'm looking at Charlton-Oxford and Portsmouth-Burton. But there are a couple here that might attract me to taking an outright win by a big dog. Walsall at Southend is a pretty glaring example, but even better odds exist for Accrington at Luton. These two finished 1-2 in League Two last season, and accordingly the h2h is skewed toward the away side (each won away last season). This season, as last, Luton has the gaudy home record, but Stanley are 4-2-1 away, including wins at Peterborough and Walsall.
  19. Left the house Saturday before I could post up Port Vale and Crewe...both won away...and my tendency is to lay off the week after such things happen. But I may take Cheltenham today away at Oldham. This is classic League Two pricing that ignores the fact that over the past decade this is the best of all the UK leagues with regard to big dogs winning away, for the simple fact that about two-thirds of the sides play better away than at home. This is true today...both of these sides have had better success away than at home, and as they haven't met in a decade there's no way you can have Cheltenham at 4.03 as they are now.
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