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allthethings

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Everything posted by allthethings

  1. Wrexham-Dover X 3.60, Solihull-Eastleigh X 3.86, Braintree 3.99
  2. There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money. Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.
  3. Tiffy's right about 4/1 underdogs, but let me flesh that out with numbers from the past decade. Dogs of up to 4.99 tend toward draws when they get a result in the round of 32, and dogs of 5.00-5.99 tend toward wins. That's true of both home and away dogs. My database is built with closing odds (from Betexplorer), so you'll have to see what happens between now and kickoff.
  4. I'm the guy who had Leicester to draw and Brighton to win, so don't listen to me. But 3/1 for Pool is pretty much a must-take.
  5. Dunno where to put this, so I'll put it here. Holy mother of God, what a crazy day this was. Here's the record of all underdogs (away or home) to a favorite of 2.00 or less, by league: Prem 2-1-1 ECL 2-4-3 L1 1-3-1 L2 1-5-1 ENL 3-2-2 Big dogs went 9-15-8 today. That's crazy. The trend in the New Year's matches is toward draws...but then the trend in 'midweek' matches (between Boxing Day and New Year's) is supposedly wins. Today you'd have made a fortune betting draws. I was on outright wins in League Two, which is traditionally a league that throws up outright wins. Not this year. I lost with both Grimsby(won, didn't draw) and Crawley and Yeovil (drew, didn't win), and I didn't take Notts County because they went up over 5.00 in the last 15 minutes before kickoff. I'm ahead in all leagues but League Two. Well, and Premiership, where my hunches seldom work out. Newcastle today, for example.
  6. This was one of those days where I guessed right, as I won four of five. I took Maidstone (5.25) and Braintree (3.84), to win, and after I missed it early, I took Barrow to win at 3.50 and got super lucky, since draw is what my system suggested. I also had the draw on Dover (3.70). My loss was taking Halifax to win, as they ended up drawing. In any event, all five favorites failed to win outright today.
  7. Watford should win...they lose to top sides, win against bottom sides...and Newcastle have gotten results mainly against bottom sides. However, Newcastle are a different side since they beat Watford the first time to begin their current run of form...three points in their first 10, 14 points since then in nine matches. If a shock win is going to happen this week by a big away dog, it'll be this one. Newcastle for me at 5.36
  8. Salford away this season as a big favorite: 2-2-1, Orient 3-1-2 Halifax as a big dog away 0-3-3, Maidstone 2-1-5, Braintree 2-3-8
  9. Let me offer a little info about league tendencies, which as you might know is one of the things I keep track of. Virtually very year the three Christmas week fixtures are close together (depends on where in the week Christmas falls), and you'd expect some rotation and unlikely results. For my purposes, it's helpful to know whether leagues tend toward wins or draws. National league games tend to be straightforward on Boxing Day (few big dogs get results), lean slightly toward outright wins in the sandwich game (away dogs of up to 5.99 are 12-10-13 over the past decade) and tend rather heavily toward draws in the New Year's games (6-11-14). Barrow jumped out at me, but home dogs are less clear-cut over the holidays. They tend toward draws rather than outright wins during the season in general (this season they're 5-7-13). Home dogs of up to 5.99 are 4-2-5 on Boxing Day, 1-1-2 in the sandwich game and 2-1-3 on New Year's, so there is a lean toward outright wins during the holiday week. On average, the expectation would be that two of the big dogs (Maidstone, Halifax, Braintree, Barrow, Dover) will get a result tomorrow. It will pay to guess right.
  10. Third round of group play. Group play sees a lot of draws by big dogs, and often shock wins by home dogs in the 6.00 to 8.00 range. If you have the stomach for it, Desportivo Aves home to Benfica would be a play, which on paper looks like suicide. The strangest match is Setubal home to Braga. They drew in the Taca de Portugal on Dec 18, at Setubal...Braga won it in extra time. The lineup announced today by Setubal is 100 percent changed from that match. Braga has made three changes, including top scorer Sousa. It's all pretty crazy...there will be a lot of players making their debuts today, especially Setubal. In any case, if you believe in the system, the play is draw here, as it is with Tondela-Nacional, assuming the home side there stay below 2.00.
  11. Used The Google. MATERA-REGGINA - What can happen? The hypotheses and all the regulations 24.12.2018 18:27 by Redazione Tuttoreggina Twitter: @tuttoreggina The players of Matera have officially called the strike for the day of December 26, when the match against Reggina is scheduled . Of course, you have to go slowly with the headlines " do not play, 0-3 at the table ", because it would serve to know the rules. What could happen? In any case, the Reggina must leave for Matera and must present itself at the XXI Settembre stadium in the timetable in which the race is scheduled, at 2.30 pm. WHO SCIOPERA - The players who signed the appropriate form to the AIC union join the strike, the others have only the right to speak and, if necessary, are not protected in relation to the right to strike (but here we go into other subjects ...). Basically it can not strike all registered players who have an existing contract of apprenticeship or youth, therefore, all players with a professional contract. WHAT MAY HAPPEN - If the players of Matera (always remember, those who have joined the Italian Footballers Association) confirm their desire to strike, the company may decide not to show up or deploy in the field training Berretti. In the past few days, both Ghirelli and his deputy Tognon had been clear: "We do not accept any request for postponement of matches". CASE DIFFERENT FROM PRO PIACENZA - Matera is a diametrically different case from that of Pro Piacenza. The Emiliani do not have, to date, even a stadium where to dispute their internal competitions, since the Garilli was banned then were not paid a few installments of rent. The Piacenza company then never thought about the possibility of deploying the Berretti and the coach of the youth training has excluded this eventuality for the next challenges.
  12. What the hell is going on with Matera, home to Reggina, in C? Odds have risen from 4.50 to 14. It's like Matera have bubonic plague or something.
  13. Sochaux's odds have gone from 3.5 to 4.1, facing Lorient. The two sending-offs last match probably have a lot to do with it, as Sochaux lost a key striker. But there's a bounceback situation in play here, where a side get a couple of men sent off and lose, and then return home as a big underdog, and I'll put a unit on Sochaux to win at those odds.
  14. Off-topic, but not too long ago, went up against a team of all 17- and 18-year-olds in a rec league game and just got unmercifully hammered. We (ages 18 to 55) scored one but were a step behind throughout.
  15. I saw they had five corners or something. Doesn't appear Bedford ever took their foot off the accelerator though. Too bad.
  16. Well, there ya go, the public was right then. Shots' odds on the match went from 1.8 to 9.3. Ridiculous. Crazy. Anyway, I didn't take them at 9.3, and I didn't take a +3 goal handi. I took them to score. Once.
  17. I've also taken Aldershot to score at 2.05. Ridiculous that the line on this match is -3 for Bedford. They may be youth players, but the Shots will have 11 men out there. Let's say lads. Anyway, Bedford are being treated as if they are a number of rungs higher than they are.
  18. Taken X in Salford-Gateshead at 3.55. Seems kind of a high price...matches between sides in different leagues typically get priced this way.
  19. Southport X 3.45 Underdogs do well in the Cup replays, but they tend to get draws in 90.
  20. Let's see. Arsenal are different now that Wenger isn't there, they score for fun, Soton are 'orrible. Perhaps that's true. Soton have a decent record at home playing against no one, and despite the poor defending have actually managed five draws in seven matches. Arse are plodding along in 5th, which even with their vaunted attack and refreshed tactics are about where Wenger had them. I'm going to accept the 4.00 odds on the draw. Soton will fight like hell against a would-be top opponent, and Arse will be held to a point if they can be made to slip on the banana peel.
  21. I'd put this in the FA Cup thread in my haste...three of my underdogs won outright, the bastards, but with the Bedford draw at 5/1, I only lost 1 unit going 1-6. What I ended up with...all draws: Leamington 3.45 Stockport 3.40 Bath 3.45 Halifax 3.35 DagRed 3.75 York 4.01 Bedford 6.00
  22. Big dogs in the round of 32 of the FAT win 16% and draw 30%, and what's striking about this round is the numbers are fairly constant all the way up to the dogs priced at 8.50 away. Differentiation is basically impossible, so you could end up playing 10 of them and needing three draws to profit.
  23. My database goes back to 2009. With regard to Apollon about to win at 8.65 and BATE at 6.80, here is the final-round tally for all away dogs priced above 5.99: 8-16-50 (11%wins, 22% draws) After this first slate of games, the numbers are 10-16-54 (13% wins, 20% draws) Also after the first slate today, with Jablonec and Malmo wins, away dogs under 5.99 are at an even 45% wins.
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