[Euro Hockey Leagues 2-3/10]

Re: Euro Hockey Leagues 2/10 Jokerit - Assat - Jokerit (-1,5) @1.81 Pinnacle 8/10 After seven rounds Jokerit is in sixth place, but with only two wins in regular time and four draws (managing only one victory in OT/SO). At home they are even worst, despite outshooting opponents in every match, they have lost to HIFK (0:3) and JYP (2:2) and Tappara (3:3) in OT. In last home match against Tappara they were especially unlucky as Tappara took lead three times, and Jokerit had to come back. Most of Tappara goals were against the run of play, and game ended in 46 Jokerit shots to 32 Tappara, but it doesn't mean nothing as Jokerit still awaits first home win. Today they will host weak Assat. Team that is third from behind, but posses some quality that they show mainly in home games, away they are regulary beaten with high margins, having lost to Ilves (2:6), JYP (1:5) and TPS (1:4). In last match they even took the lead against TPS, but it wasn't enough, in that game they were oushooted 33-11. I also must add that of all teams that they've faced in away games only in-form and good team is JYP. TPS and Ilves are above average and it could stay like that. Jokerit usually beats them, usually with high margins and i can't see exception here. Jokerit need home win after a lot of unlucky defeats and Assat should feel how good Jokerit really is. Home team has four questionable players in Arto Koivisto, Samuli Jalkanen, Tobias Salmelainen and Mika Rontti cause of flu, Sami Helenius is suspended for this match. Most of this players are from 3rd and 4th line and aren't really influental. Assat should miss Marko Kivenmaki (3 assists) and Teemu Virkkusen who are important players. All in all i can see home win here, and it could be pretty high too... P.S. G:G, thanks anyway :tongue2

[Hockey W.C. Semifinals 12/5]

Re: Hockey W.C. Semifinals 12/5

Russia - Finland

Today, 13:15 Ice Hockey - International

Pick: Over 5.5 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: Bet365 [url=http://www.blogabet.com/verify.php] So far Russia looks like a best team on this tournament, there's no doubt about that, they are scoring like crazy and don't play really defensivly. Margin of 5.5 is too low for them if opponent scores at least two. Russia got under that margin only twice, and in both games they kept clean sheet (Italy and Czech R). That unders came more because of their opponents style. Finland on this tournament has 3 overs and 4 unders, but here is same situation like against Russia, they kept three clean sheets (Ukraine, Suiss and Italy) and all that teams were playing defensive almost whole game. Fourth under was against Sweden that plays defensive when they need to and is probably the most defensive oriented team of all four in SF. Finland showed what are they capable of in games against open teams like Denmark (6:2), USA (4:4) and their tommorow opponent Russia (4:5). In every game they gave up some stupid goals, but in last period of game against Russia and in second period against USA they showed what are their attacking abilities when they start to make pressure. Overall i see similar game like the first one (no matter that this is way much important). In that first one there was really small number of pen. minutes, only 9x2, in this game i expect more penalties and if Russia continues their style of attacking play, Finaland has nothing to do but to follow them and number of goals could easily go over eight, especially if we see an early goal...

[Romania Liga I (May 8-10)]

Re: Romania Liga I (May 8-10)

Event	Steaua - Ceahlaul
Selection	Steaua (-1.5) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	09/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Yesterday Cluj lost to first Dinamo and Steaua has great chance of jumping over them. Their motivation shouldn't be questionable as 2nd place grants them Champions League qualification. Now, i'm basing this pick purley on stats and motivation as i don't have any team news, but Steaua looks like great bet here. Steaua is 2nd best home team with W12-D2-L1 39:10 (and they've conceded 6 of that 10 goals against Dinamo and Cluj). Ceahlaul on the other side is fighting against relegation, they are 4 pts behind Farul and 5 pts behind UTA, but i don't think that they will catch them. Away they are 2nd worst team in the league with W1-D2-L12 6:22 and in last four away they are W0-D0-L4 0:6 losing even against their direct concurent UTA. Seems like they are really weak in attack and i don't see them scoring today. Steaua scores average 2.60 gls per game at home and as their motivation should be high today i see them scoring at least two. This odds look valueable to me, i wouldn't give more then 1.75, but as i don't have team news i will go with small/medium stake or in combi with something. Tradition is also on home side, in last seven seasons Steaua hosted Ceahlaul in four games, they are W3-D1-L0 and Steaua covered this hcp in two. Ceahlaul didn't scored in all four.

[Hockey World Championships 9 - 10/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 9 - 10/5 Russia - Czech Rep. Today, 14:15 Ice Hockey - International Pick: Over 5.5 Stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.96 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Very interesting game and very tricky odds on this one. I wouldn't touch straight win of any team, Russia looks better on paper, but they've already showed that they have their weaknesses. In game against Suiss (which has bad attack) they conceded way too much, against Sweden it was more obvious that they can be beaten (Sweden was in the game until fourth goal), against Italy they showed that they have problems with the teams that are defending all the time etc. Czechs on the other side are oscilating more then i would like them, they had high wins in first group stage, then they had big problems in second part of the tournament and i can't say how will they react to the PO game. But, what i've noticed, they allow too many goals against strong offensive teams, but they are also able to score a lot. From the tournament begining i'm writing that refreeing fits offensive teams more, there are a lot of PP and i hope it will continue today. This is first real test for Russia that looks really strong in attack, Czech R. doesn't fit them at all (really bad H2H for Russian team), but as Russia isn't so strong in defence they have to amend that in attack. I see a game with lots of goals no matter that this match is very important to both of the teams... Small stake Sweden - Slovakia Today, 18:15 Ice Hockey - International Pick: Under 5.5 Stake: 3/10 Odds: 2.15 Bookmaker: 5dimes This should be interesting. I must admit that i expected more from Slovakian team, but as they are slow starters i think they will start to play now in knock-out phase. On paper their team looks better to me and i was thinking about Slovakia DNB, but Sweden so far was one of the most impressive teams and i can't go against them just like that. They are masters of defence if they want to, and as they showed in games against Russia and Finland they will play like that if the have to. They play hockey like italian style in football, but they are also strong in attack and this match could go either way. Still, this odds are way too high if we count match importance and Sweden style of play when they face strong teams. Slovakia also showed that they can play on result, in first match against Norway (they took it on routine, even without few NHLers), same goes for their crucial game against Czech R. Under here for me.

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5 What a bad day for a goalies :spank :wall

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 4/5 Nice one CBG :clap I didn't got in time to post my Norway pick here, but here is one other: 14:15 Russia - Switzerland - under 6,5 @1.75 7/10 This tournamenet had a lot of overs from the begining, but as the time goes by and we're going to later stages there are less goals and teams are more carefull. You can see it even from favorized Russian team, they played against Italy in second gear resting few players and weren't very agressive. Result could be even smaller if there was some other team against them. Suiss team is the defending one as i already wrote, they had only one over so far (and it was over 5,5 not on this margin) and in that game team had a bad day. They don't concede much, but are also inefficiant in front of goal. I don't think it will change, especially as they had tough match against Denmark yesteray. But, i don't belive that they will relax and allow Russia to crush them. I expect them to act like Italy against Finns, Italy lost 0:3 to Russia, day after they played against Finland and continued to defend and got same result 0:3. I must say that Suiss is better team then Italy and if there wasn't that game yesterday this would be one of the best bets this week... Good Luck :hope

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 4/5 Hi all, Finland - Italy game was the first one that caught my attention: 18:15 Finland - Italy - under 6.5 @1.95 5/10 Italy played yesterday against Russia, their players looked like they will collapse in the last period and i don't think that they will put good performance today. Still i'm with under because Italy in the game against Russia didn't went to attack even when they were losing 0:2, they were just avoiding getting crushed. So they will play the same today, and i don't expect goals from them. Finland on the other side is certainly better team, but they have problems with teams that play defensive aswell, it was obvious in game against Suiss. They also don't go for crushing an opponent, but slower the game when they take a comfortable lead. Yes, they had overs, against Russia and Denmark, but both that teams play more offensive and Italy will only defend today. Only minus for this pick is Italian tiredness, but they have good goalie and i expect them to leave Finland under six goals, also i don't expect Italy to score, if they do it will be only once. I was also thinking about hcp on Finland because of tiredness of Italy, but i have to think a bit about that... As for the other games, i think that USA will now easily beat Germany, cause of tiredness and now they are awere how Germans are dangerous. Czech - Slovakia game is very opened, i'm thinking about backing a draw (we didn't see many draws on this championship). Suiss - Denmark game, i think that Suiss will win this, and i hope they'll do it through the defence (as they usually do), but because of recent trend on this championship, and Denmark style of play i'll skip it... Good Luck :hope

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 4/5 Wierd thing, 10Bet clasifies my bet as a wining one :unsure They include OT/SO in the DNB :loon :nana

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 4/5 No matter that Austria outshooted Norway they didn't even deserved that draw. Bad luck for those who bet straight win. Canada - Belarus game went as expected :beer

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3 - 4/5 14:15 Canada - Belarus Pick: over 6.5 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: Expekt Results of both teams so far, Belarus: Belarus - Czech R. 2:8 (1:4, 1:1, 0:3) USA - Belarus 5:1 (3:0, 2:0, 0:1) Austria - Belarus 2-5 (1-2, 1-2, 0-1) Canada Germany - Canada 2:3 (1:1, 1:1, 0:1) Canada - Norway 4-2 (2-1, 0-1, 2-0) Canada - Slovakia 5-4 (1-1, 3-2, 1-1) I think that so far Belarus team was underachiving and i think they should start playing better now, on the other side Canadian team had problems in every game and i don't feel comfortable with handicap, they already allowed more goals then it was expected and played close with every team. In game agaisnt Slovakia they showed what are they capable of and i think that that win is boost for their self-confidence. Belarus are certainly weaker team, but at this stage it isn't so important. Their last meeting finished 4:3 in Belarus (!) favor (2nd May 2006.) and that was a big surprise it could happend again easily. But now, why i favor over more?! Belarus first goalie Mezin has cold and won't play today (that isn't a huge blow as Belarus changed goalie every period ) their starter will be young rookie Goryachevskikh who will play his first really important game for NT. I can't see nothing but a high scoring game here, Belarus aren't so weak in attack, but this certainly isn't championship for goalies, too many PP and high scoring efficency of some teams made this IHWC an "over" championship and i belive it will stay this way. Canada team won Slovakia because of great PP, if they repeat half of it in this game it should be an easy over. 14:15 Austria - Norway Pick: Norway DNB Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.75 Bookmaker: 10bet Both teams came to relegation round with three loses, Austria results so far: USA - Austria 6:2 (3:1, 1:1, 2:1) Czech R. - Austria 6:1 (2:0, 1:1, 3:0) Austria - Belarus 2-5 (1-2, 1-2, 0-1) Norway results: Slovakia - Norway 3:0 (2:0, 1:0, 0:0) Canada - Norway 4-2 (2-1, 0-1, 2-0) Norway - Germany 3-5 (0-2, 3-3, 0-0) As you can see Norway results were a bit better, furthermore, i belive they have better attacking abilities, their form seems to improve as the tournament goes by, and in Austria we can see first bigger problems, expirienced Divis will be between the bars instead of Brueckler which made Brueckler very dissappointed and their team moral is kind of low. Another plus for Norway is Austrian bad PP, bad penalty killing and i can't see any different outcome but Norway win. Still i decided for DNB because of recent surprises on IHWC, but i will also play Norway -1,5 for a small stake as i think they are able to win this and odds are too high and i will regret if i don't try it... About other two games, hcp for Russia seems to high, especially as at this stage i don't see them going for "crushing" the opponent, but resting after comfortable lead. In Latvia - Ukraine game i can see under because of importance, but because of refreeing i won't take it, also i favor Latvia, maybe because of their name, maybe because of Ukraine problems but it will be a tough match. Good Luck :hope

[Hockey World Championships 3 - 6/5]

Re: Hockey World Championships 3/5 14:15 Switzerland - Finland Pick: under 6 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.87 Bookmaker: 5dimes Two most defensive oriented team in this tournament. Both are traditionally relying on defense more and you can see it from their scores: Finland: Ukraine - Finland 0:5 (0:1, 0:3, 0:1) Finland - Denmark 6:2 (3:1, 1:0, 2:1) Finland - Russia 4-5 (1-2, 0-2, 3-1) Switzerland Switzerland - Latvia 2:1 (0:0, 2:1, 0:0) Switzerland - Italy 2-1 (1-0, 0-0, 1-1) Sweden - Switzerland 6-0 (0-0, 5-0, 1-0) In normal condition it would be 8/10 bet, BUT: 1. Switzerland played yesterday and they could be tired 2. In this championship refreeing is really strict and there are lots of penalties and PP so there are more chances for goals 3. Finland showed really great fire power in their game against Russia But there are also few things that point to under, except that both teams prefer to play defensive (i hope that Suiss won't crack in one period like against Sweden in 2/3 when they've conceded five). There is long tradition of under in their games. I can't find their game going in over 6 in last eight years (on bigger tournaments). Another plus is really bad Suiss attacking abilities and i don't see them scoring more then one today. The way i see the game: Finnland takes an early lead of two or three goals difference and then slowers the game and Suiss is unable to score again, i see result like 4:1 and i hope that too much penalties won't ruin it. This is my only pick for today, i don't like -4,5 hcp on Sweden as they've played yesterday (but they should cover it), also i'm not taking Slovakia because they've played yesterday aswell (it should be a tight game) and in Germany - Czech R. game i belive Czechs will win but not with hcp. Good Luck

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5 Some wierd games today, big upset by Italy and incredible turnovers in Nor - Ger game. :loon Now go Slovakia :hope

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5 14:15 Norway - Germany Pick: Norway +1,5 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.85 Bookmaker: Expekt Results of the teams so far: Germany - Canada 2-3 (1-1, 1-1, 0-1) Slovakia - Germany 5-1 (1-0, 1-0, 3-1) Slovakia - Norway 3-0 (2-0, 1-0, 0-0) Canada - Norway 4-2 (2-1, 0-1, 2-0) Who loses today will go into relegation group. This season German team isn't on their previous level, because of declanation and injuries of few of their important players. That is obvious already from their results, they were close to "surprise" against Canada, but they just couldn't get it. Also lack of concentration in last minutes against Slovakia brought them heavy loss. Today pressure is on them and i belive that we could see first game that will go into OT. Norway looks like a solid team after two games, they seemed to lack motivation in game against Slovakia, but in game against Canada they were great. If they keep to play like that against Germany they will go to Qualification Round and Germany will play Relegation Round. Hcp of +1,5 surprised me as i didn't even expected to see it, and this odds are way to high, i wouldn't give more then 1.40-1.50... 18:15 Canada - Slovakia Pick: Slovakia +0,5 Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.69 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Results of the teams so far: Germany - Canada 2-3 (1-1, 1-1, 0-1) Canada - Norway 4-2 (2-1, 0-1, 2-0) Slovakia - Norway 3-0 (2-0, 1-0, 0-0) Slovakia - Germany 5-1 (1-0, 1-0, 3-1) Canada had problems in both games, they didn't deserved to win against Germany in regular time, but they did it with great dose of luck. In game against Norway it was even closer, Norway was great threat until the last period when an early goal (3:2) was the most important one. Slovakia so far looked much better. They've won Norway without few NHL players and in that game it was obvious how good they are. Norway didn't made any real chances (except once when they've hit the bar) and Slovakia controlled the game. Against Germany it was the same story, yes, Germans came close in the begining of third, but then Slovakia put it in the higher speed and scored three unanswered goals. My overall impression is that Slovakia is better team here and i'll back them. However, because of tradition and "imperative" of wining here i'll do it with covering the draw aswell. Odds are good and allow me to do it. Still i have full confidence about Slovakia and i think that young Canadian team will lose today... I don't agree with Burran and G:G about Suiss heavy loss against Sweden, Suiss didn't beat Latvia and Italy with high margin because they play defensive tactic and rely on counter-attacks more. I think that Sweden will fit them better and i don't see high win for Sweden here. I tought about handicap against Sweden but decided not to play anything there so i hope you still win your bets :hope

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 30/4

Both teams have the same goal difference: -12. But, Denmark scored 3 goals and Ukraine only 1, so the draw is enough for Denmark to avoid relegation battle.

There was change of rules, there is no "draw", they have to play OT/SO, winner gets 2 points, loser 1 point. Denmark eventually won and first two games went as expected. :beer

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 30/4 Good day yesterday, today only one pick for me: 14:15 Denmark - Ukraine Pick: Denmark Stake: 4/10 Odds: 2.45 Bookmaker: Starbet Results of the teams so far: Russia - Denmark 9-1 Finland - Denmark 6-2 Ukraine - Finland 0-5 Russia - Ukraine 8-1 Very important game for both teams, whoever loses will go to the relegation round. I must admit that i'm dissapointed by Denmark performances so far, i hoped for at least decent defeat against Finland. Still, they look better in my eyes then Ukraine does (just read my explanations for first two picks against Ukraine). No matter that Ukraine plays nearly at home, Denmark is better option here IMO. Yes, they will miss brothers Degn and Hansen, but even with this roster i think that they should beat Ukraine. As i already wrote in previous previews, Ukraine had big problems with players that declined invitation, mostly from Russian Superleague and this isn't Ukraine best team. MAYBE they can get draw here, but for that they need to score at least two or three goals, i'm not sure that they are capable of doing it...

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 30/4 Seems like Suiss can't stop to play their defenisve oriented hockey, as soon as Italy equalised (1:1) Switzerland pushed harder and scored again. I belive that they would be happy with one goal difference even over the team from Div I (where Italy belongs). Under was soooo better choice, nice one CBG :clap Slovakia easily handled Germany and i belive they will give Canada really hard time. Lets see how afternoon games will go :hope

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 30/4 14:15 Switzerland - Italy Pick: Switzerland -2,5 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.80 Bookmaker: Bet365 I don't want to repeat myself, but i have to. Italy, so far looks like the worst team on this tournament, and after first games i'm getting more sure about their relegation. In first game they were demolished by Sweden, 1:7, but it could be even worst. SOG stats 15:50, but what surprised me is their lack of agresivity, only 7x2 min. I belive that in this game they will have more penalities. Switzerland showed good performance, managed to bounce back against Latvia after 0:1, controlled most of the game playing like they've used to - defensivly (but still got possesion and SOG stats is also in their favor, 26:16). They are patient team, and probably most defensivly oriented of all present on this tournament. Still i belive that they will use opponents mistakes and will get over this handicap. If they performe like they did against Latvia, or Germany in preparation (5:1) they should easily win this. Medium stake because of two reasons, so far neither of favorized teams didn't made any mistakes. And second, their last mutual meeting ended "only" 3:1. It was one year ago, Swiss had more then enough chances to make a bigger lead and blew it (41:14 SOG), but what's more important, match was very physical, if it happens tomorow again i belive that Italy will regret it as they look worst then at that time, and Switzerland team looks better. So, medium stake for me. 18:15 Latvia - Sweden Pick: over 5.5 Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.85 Bookmaker: Ladbrokes First real test for Sweden here. They had easier training match in first game against Italy that they've easily won 7:1. There weren't many PP and in this game i expect totally different performance and a lot of 3on5 situations. Latvian roster seems to be the oldest on this tournament and i don't think that their players can trace young Sweden stars like Backlund. Another plus is that Latvia is usually a good "customer" for Sweden, in last three mutual meetings they've recorded three high defeats 1:6, 1:9 and 1:4 (that was back in 2004 when Latvia played QF). Also their preparation results don't inspire, Latvia lost to Finland 3:7, and no matter that they played "only" 1:2 with Switzerland i'm confident with over. Switzerland is (as i wrote in other analysis) most defensivly oriented team on this tournament so the score reflects it. Against Sweden Latvia will get more chances to score, but will also concede more. I would give this odds for 6,5 margin, for this margin odds are just too high... 18:15 Canada - Norway Pick: Norway +3,5 Stake: 3/10 Odds: 2.20 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Despite bad performance of Norway in game against Slovakia i'll still back them in this game. Noway was totally unefficiant in that game, didn't have real threats to Slovakian goal so from final result you can see what happend in that game 0:3. Canada had alot of troubles in game against Germany that seems to be stronger then expected. Narrow 3:2 win in close game in which Germans did what was expected - defended most of the game. But, they've outshooted Canadian team and from reports from that game (i didn't watched it) say that they looked more equal then anyone expected. Canadian roster seems to be very young, and i don't think that they are expirienced enough to make any big result here, you never can really know what to expect from young teams, but my expectations don't see them in fight for medals, and i don't see them demolishing any team here. 3,5 handicap seems fair, especially at this odds and i'm ready to back it with small stake. Minus to this pick is totally lack of any real chances for Norway in game against Slovakia, but i belive they'll get together and try to do something here. Also under looks nice to me. Good Luck

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 28/4 18:15 Russia - Ukraine Pick: Russia -4,5 Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.75 Bookmaker: BetAndWin I'll take it early as i don't belive this odds and margin will last long. After first game i'm definatly sure that Ukraine has big internal problems, they've lost 0:5 against Finland with plenty of penalties and it could have been worst for them. Russia handled Denmark even easier then expected, 9:1 and playing most of the game in second gear (especially last third when they've scored only one). I won't write much about this one, Russia looks better then Finland to me, and Denmark looks better then Ukraine. Conclusion is obvious, Russia to easily cover this handicap

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 28/4

Comic Book Guy you don't like under 5' date=5 at all? I have some doubts about this win for Switzerland? maybe under could be better? Latvia conceeded 5 goals in last 3 games, that's about 2 goals per game. And Switzerland are the hosts. Problem is that Switzerland have conceeded 8 goals in last 3 games, that's about 3 goals per game. Now this scares me away. This one here could easily go over... And Latvia won 2 last games!

Switzerland aren't host, whole championship is played in Russia ;) As about that game, i also like Switzerland more, and about under/over, at this margin (5.5) i belive it will go over. If yesterday games showed us something it was strict refrees and lots of penalties, followed by large number of 5on3 situations. If same happens today (and i belive it will as Latvians aren't fast enough and should got in it more physicall) i belive we'll see at least six goals...

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27 - 28/4 Good day yesterday, only one pick for today so far:

Sweden - Italy

Ice Hockey - International

Pick: Sweden -3,5 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.70 Bookmaker: Gamebookers According to bookies Sweden are first favorite for the title, i don't agree with them, but today agaisnt Italy they are huge favorites, and anything except their big win would be considered as a surprise. Italy is the worst team on this tournament IMO, and in this group they absoultley don't stand a chance (Group A, along with their today opponent Sweden, Switzerland and Latvia). Their results from preparation period show that they are unable to compete with teams that are one level above them, Sweden is at least two. Italy results in preparation: 21/04-07 Denmark vs. Italy 2:2 14/04-07 Italy vs. Belarus 1:3 12/04-07 Italy vs. Belarus 1:4 10/04-07 Italy vs. Japan 3:2 06/04-07 Italy vs. Denmark 3:4 This loses against Belarus show their real quality as Belarus were the strongest team that played against them in preparation. And still Belarus is one level below Sweden. So you know what to expect ;) Swedish results in preparation: 25/04-07 Sweden vs. USA 3:5 21/04-07 Russia vs. Sweden 2:4 19/04-07 Sweden vs. Russia 3:2 30/03-07 Hungary vs. Sweden 1:7 29/03-07 Hungary vs. Sweden 2:1 (OT) They've made two really dissapointing results 1:2 OT loss against Hungary (i can understand that, they were in mixed squad and it was their first game in preparation, and they were clearly better team), but last loss against USA is unexplainable to me. I think that after that they have to made up to their fans with huge win here. Italy isn't match for them and if they will be motivated they can cover even -5,5. Anyway, big value here in my eyes...

[Hockey : World Championships 27/4 - 2/5]

Re: Hockey : World Championships 27/4 19:15 Russia - Denmark Pick: over 6.5 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.90 Bookmaker: Gamebookers Group D of IHWC. Opening game for hosts Russia, played in Moscow. Russia can hope for a huge number of fans cheering for them it should be nice game and good opener for them. Their preparation games: April 13,Chaux de Fonds, Switzerland - Russia 1-4 (1-1, 0-1, 0-2) April 14, Langenthal, Switzerland - Russia 1-4 (0-1, 0-1, 1-2) April 19, Gävle, Sweden - Russia 3-2 (0-0, 1-1, 2-1) April 21, Moscow, Russia - Sweden 2-4 (0-1, 1-1, 1-2) April 24, Moscow, Russia - Austria 4-3 (3-0, 0-1, 2-1) Denmark preparational games: April 5, Merano, Japan - Denmark 2-4 (1-2, 0-1, 1-1) April 6, Merano, Italy - Denmark 3-4 (1-3, 1-1, 1-0) April 12, Kassel, Germany - Denmark 4-2 (0-2, 3-0, 1-0) April 14, Krefeld, Germany - Denmark 4-2 (1-1, 0-1, 3-0) April 21, Aalborg, Denmark - Italy 2-2 (0-2, 1-0, 1-0) April 24, Riga, Latvia - Denmark 5-2 (1-0, 3-1, 1-1) Russia so far didn't showed great attacking abilities, but i think they can score five or six today. Still i don't feel comfortable with -4 handicap offered by the bookies as Russia conceded a lot in their preparation, especially in last games (four against Sweden, four against Austria!?). I see Denmark scoring two or maybe even three. Odds dropping on over (yesterday they were 2.00), i still think that they have value as i would go even on 7.5 margin (off course, for better odds of 2.60+). I hope for a nice opening game for Russia and if Hirsch will be Denmark no1 goalie i can see a lot of goals. Hirsch needed urgent surgery and had a pause of almost a month, he didn't played much in last months and i don't think he's ready. He's probable substitute Madsen has same problem, he also lacks minutes on ice and if they don't have good day Russia could go over this margin solo. I'll add two goals for Denmark aswell so my result prediction is 6:2. 15:15 Ukraine - Finland Pick: Finland -3,5 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.00 Bookmaker: Bet365 Finland Exhibition Games: April 13, Espoo, Finland - Latvia 7-3 (1-1, 2-1, 4-1) April 19, Helsinki, Finland - Czech Republic 1-0 (1-0, 0-0, 0-0) April 21, Prague, Czech Republic - Finland 2-0 OT (0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0) April 24, Tampere, Finland - Canada 4-2 (2-1, 0-0, 2-1) Ukraine Exhibition Games April 13, Brovary, Ukraine – Dynamo Moscow 3-4 (0-1, 2-1, 1-2) April 14, Brovary, Ukraine – Dynamo Moscow 2-1 (1-1, 0-0, 1-0) Opening game of Group D in which, along with this two teams, are hosts Russia and Denmark. Except difference in class that goes in Finnland favor there are also few things that go against Ukraine. First, Ukraine went through the very bad preparatory program, played only two games with Dynamo Moscow which wasn't very strong opponent (i know they aim to title in next few season, but they are in post season and didn't brought any noticable name yet). Ukraine needed stronger sparing partner but seems like they just couldn't find it. Second, huge number of important players that declined invitation. I won't go into details, but except Ponikarovsky (Toronto, NHL) there were seven players from Superliga that declined invitation (problem is with politics toward foreigners in Superliga and that players still didn't signed new contracts). So Ukraine will miss seven important players from Superliga, Ponikarovsky and Tolkunov (injured). That is huge blow for them. Third, because of lots of declanations, Ukraine has problems with attackers, in eg Zavalnyuk from Magnitogorsk (one of two players from Russian Superliga that are in roster) and who is playing as a defender is in first line of Ukraine attack (!!!). Well, i found that he used to be forward few years ago so it shouldn't be problem for him, but in first line?? Others should be even worst then. Same problem is with goalie (most important player of a team), Simchuk (CSKA) declined invitation and i don't know any of these other goalies, and from what i can find they didn't played many games this season. Enough for IHWC? No. As a conclusion, Ukraine enters this game with many problems, bad preparation period, lots of missings and weak attacking and goaltending (i think). So i don't see them score much, especially against Finnland that traditionally plays good defense. And i certainly think that they could concede four or five, if not more. I think that chances for Finland to win by four or more goals margin is over 60% (they've beaten Latvia with four goals difference, and i reckon Latvia as a better team then Ukraine). Opening games are always bringing us surprise, but here i think we will win comfortable Finalnd win. I also agree with Belarus +2, but will think about it a bit. G'Luck to us :hope

[International Hockey, 21/04]

Re: International Hockey, 21/04

Slovenia to win -3.0 (1.62 @ Bet365) I know the odds of 1.62 are not great, but I'm going to put my money on Slovenia again. Slovenian team secured the first place and they have been two classes above all other teams in this division. Lithuania won two matches so far. They have won against Great Britain (GB stopped playing in the 3rd period and allowed Lithanians to catch up after being behind 0:2 - bad day for me) and against Romania (definitely the worst team here). Lithuania was nowhere to be seen in first two periods against GB (only 11 attempts on goal) and they have struggled in first period against Romania. So, they wern't brilliant even in the matches they've won. Slovenia will be motivated in this match, although the are safely positioned on the top. The venue will be full again and the whole country is flying high because of their awesome performance. This could prove to be an exhibition match, in which will Slovenia easily win.

I completly agree on this one, but i managed to take -2,5 @Bet365 before they've changed margin. Still i belive that both bets should be easy winners, i would even take -3,5 into consideration. GL to us :hope

[International Hockey, 21/04]

Re: International Hockey, 21/04 Time: 1630 (CET) Fixture: Japan v Hungary Bet Type: FIXED ODDS Choice: Away Win Stake/Odds: 10 @ 1.85 Bookie: Gamebookers Reason for pick World Championships Division 1, Group B 1. Slovenia W4-D0-L0 25:3 12 pts 2. Hungary W3-D0-L1 16:10 9 pts 3. Lithuania W2-D0-L2 11:16 6 pts 4. Japan W1-D1-L2 16:18 5 pts 5. Great Britain W1-D0-L3 8:14 3 pts 6. Romania W0-D1-L3 11:26 1 pt I already wrote a lot about this group, and especially about Hungary. They are one class above every team here except Slovenia who is one class above them. They've lost to Slovenia 1:4 and now they lack motivation for other games. These are their results so far: Hungary - Lithuania 6:1 Hungary - Slovenia 1:4 Hungary - Romania 5:3 Hungary - G. Britain 4:2 In both games against Brits and Romanians they played without motivation, in game against Brits they even were losing 0:2, but got motivated with it and in second part of the game (especially third period) there was only one team on ice. Result could be even worst for Britain if there wasn't a good goalie who saved them from bigger loss. Japan so far underachieved, they've won only Lithuania convincingly. They've beaten Romania in OT and lost to Britain. So far they didn't looked really good (except in game with Lithuania). This is last round and i don't think they'll have big motivation. Hungarians are better team, and even if they play only one period as they did against Britain i belive they will win this one...

[Hockey WC, Apr 18]

Re: Hockey WC, Apr 18 Nice previews, over got in :clap Seems like Romania is black cat for Hungary as they just can't beat them with high margin :unsure :spank

[Croatian 1.HNL, Apr 18]

Event	Hajduk - Kamen
Selection	Kamen not to score
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 1.78 (Back)
Reasoning	Kamen is in great difficulties and i don't see any way that they can survive in 1.HNL this season. Their chairman is in prision, coach resigned one day before this match, players are totally unmotivated and their pays aren't paid in last few months. Today they will face Hajduk, second place team and, along with Dinamo, biggest name in Croatian football. Hajduk at home has: W11-D1-L1 30:4, they have the best defense overall and at home and kept the clean sheet in eight of their last nine games. In last match Pula managed to score and win (1:0) and Hajduk changed coach after it. At home Hajduk allowed goals in only three games in 13 rounds and i don't expect their style changing. Today they will have certain problems in attack, but defence will be complete, and important central defender Zivkovic is coming back. Kamen away has W1-D1-L11 11:32, they've failed to score in five of their 13 away games. Latley they've been playing really bad and in last game they've lost at home to Zagreb 0:6. Hajduk plays traditionally good defense, especially at home and in last five seasons and eight games Kamen managed to score in only two. Their only game at Poljud this season finished: 2006-11-08 Hajduk 4-0 Kamen Ingrad As Hajduk has problems with attackers i think that they won't win with high margin and in that case they will keep cautios in defense and won't concede. In local i have only 1.65 for this bet, and online only Expekt offers it. I recommend medium stake as this kind of bets are always gambling and odds today aren't really high...

Event	Varteks - Pula
Selection	Pula not to score
Strength	10/10
Date	18/04/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 2.35 (Back)
Reasoning	As much as i based Hajduk - Kamen pick on Hajduk good defense, i'm basing this pick on Pula bad attacking when it comes to away games. Varteks didn't win in last 11 games, and lost last seven. It can be explaind as a though schedule, but they were expected to snatch a point or three now and then. They really came close to the danger zone and it's really time to beat someone. Latley they allowed too much goals, 18 in last seven games and they said they will play more cautios. They don't really know to play defensivly and they rely on attack more, but Pula isn't team that will play offensive. Pula in away games is really poor, they have W2-D2-L9 6:17 and scored in only four of their 13 away games. They play defensive and trying something only from counter-attacks. Today they should be satisfied with a draw. I see a one way game today, Varteks attacking and Pula defending. I don't see Pula has any real fire power in attack since Kalinic left and it will be extremly hard for them to score (they have second worst attack in the league). This odds are really too high IMO and i hope that tradition will continue and it says that Pula didn't scored in Varazdin since they play in 1.HNL. Small/medium stake for me.