Sporting Sam

bets Published 9.09, 9.41 & 10.00 - all selections online
CASTAN’s sole all-weather run to date reads very well, and after leaving the impression he would have finished much closer granted a clear run at Redcar last time, he might be poised to strike on his belated return to an artificial surface at Newcastle today (7.30).
He didn’t travel especially well at Redcar, but looked like he was starting to stay on when repeatedly running into trouble approaching the furlong pole, his rider accepting matters once his chance had gone.
His chance here, though, is predicated on his run over this course-and-distance last October. He couldn’t go with Michaela’s Boy in the closing stages, but that’s hardly surprising as the winner was just about the fastest 5f two-year-old seen on the all-weather last winter and was racing off a mark of 78 (he went on to finish a close second in a valuable handicap at the Curragh off a mark of 97 this summer).
Castan readily beat the remainder, and the field finished extremely strung out by 5f standards.
He’s 2lb lower here, and if he is close to that form on his return to the all-weather he’ll be hard to beat.
It’s not surprising to see Tropical Air installed as a short-priced favourite in the 6f nursery at Newcastle (7.00), and he might be hard to peg back again as he bids for an all-weather hat-trick, even though he’s down in trip and racing on a straight track this time.
However, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of ANGLESEY LAD, and he looks a bit of value against the odds-on favourite.
Anglesey Lad shaped with a degree of promise on his all-weather and handicap debut at Kempton in August, racing three wide round the bend but travelling well up to a point, suggesting he had taken to the surface quite well.
His next run was a curious piece of placement, other than Chester being the stable’s local track, as he was asked to contest a 7f maiden on soft ground, but he shaped quite well in the circumstances, travelling nicely a long way off the pace and not at all knocked about.
That run wasn’t without its benefits, as he’s been dropped a further 2lb here, and having shown promise off a 5lb higher mark at Kempton, he looks the best alternative to the favourite.
PATONTHEBACK has a habit of throwing in the odd shocker, as was the case last time at Newcastle, but he also has a history of bouncing back from those poor runs, and he might be worth chancing in the 7f handicap at Newcastle (5.00).
He weakened here tamely last time when sent off 5-2 favourite, but his previous course-and-distance run in August had seen a dominant display in a good time figure.
There have been a handful of other occasions during his career when he’s run no sort of a race yet bounced back on his next start, and whilst he’s probably not one to take too short a price about, a return to his previous course-and-distance form would make him a big player at decent odds.
 
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
5.00 NEWCASTLE
1pt win PATONTHEBACK (16-1 general)
7.00 NEWCASTLE
1pt win ANGLESEY LAD (11-2 general)
7.30 NEWCASTLE
1pt win CASTAN (7-1

Luke Morris 
does the business the arc winning jockey rides them to sleep for Archie Watson and that’s winner number 5 on the day including Ace impact and three in hong Kong to make it just 35 to go for the months target to be reached.
wether it’s longchamp or Wolverhampton this jockey just gets on with the job.
5/40

Ended the day on six winners
three in Hong Kong 
Stolz
Karma
Blue marlin
one in Düsseldorf ridden by Luke Morris.
Brave Emperor 
one at Longchamp 
Ace impact
one in the states on the USA thread.
Loved Reilko 
but to be fair would have  been better to have gone all in on Ace impact!
(There was a seventh winner snapatera as it was a follow up bet to his blinding run for Joseph O’Brien in midweek. But I posted that on another forum.)
ive set a target, a pointless one but a target nonetheless, to land three tricasts this month and forty winners on this forum. It is very easy to lose focus and that is certainly what happened to me yesterday but the highlight was Ace impact.
The  after race analysis is fascinating. as stunning and mature as his first impact busting win over more experienced rivals when most if not all thought the runaway leader who’d gone clear in the straight was home and hosed as ace impact was rounding the turn. He did much the same today from closer order so as not to let the field get away, just like a cat plays with a mouse.
Thirty four winners to go. Hopefully two more today. 

The  after race analysis is fascinating. as stunning and mature as his first impact busting win over more experienced rivals when most if not all thought the runaway leader who’d gone clear in the straight was home and hosed as ace impact was rounding the turn. He did much the same today from closer order so as not to let the field get away, just like a cat plays with a mouse. I’ve noted what has  happened with the draw and  will share it here because physics came into play here along with form. Ace impact was the highest drawn horse to get home and in winning beat the lowest drawn horse. ( traverse law of physics) Crucially the third horse home was drawn right alongside the winner. ( the tow effect or as I call it free energy)
You could call it coincidence, but  it is so much more than that.  (imagine putting bullets into a chamber, throwing stones from your hand or launching stones from a slingshot, ballistics, the same thing occurs in stalls, which means the horses immediately have a trajectory)  I base much of my selections on physics and analysis of previous results. There were several aspects of the draw being key to the outcome of many races yesterday at Longchamp on both days and at Newmarket on Saturday and Chelmsford for that matter. Because of physics these results will occur again and again today and tomorrow. The best example of traverse law  in physics occurred in the Cambridgeshire. A pint of Guinness to anyone who can opine what that was? And yes I was kicking myself after the race as I did not pick it up on the day and ended up with the runner up.
 

Frankie interviewed
“me, me,  34 years me, me me
not a mention of the winner .
like the mother of the groom who wears white to her son’s  wedding.

Ace impact ( win)is unbeaten and that has to be the starting point of interest.
High enough draw for one so young.
Through Seven Seas
Each way
Has a nice low draw. While it is disappointing not to see a Japanese jockey on board, he must have a huge chance as horses finishing in the mere flatulence slipstream of Equinox have routinely franked the form this year.
The frenzied Nippon hordes will likely smash the Paris mutual into tote £1 better than SP odds proportions.
Talking of trapped wind, (and I wasn’t) Frankie Dettori’s last ride in the Arc before he comes out of retirement next year to ride in the Arc (and the Breeders cup) is on Free wind (each way).
Ace impact 
win
 
Through Seven Seas
Free wind
Both each way

Luke Morris 
does the business the arc winning jockey rides them to sleep for Archie Watson and that’s winner number 5 on the day including Ace impact and three in hong Kong to make it just 35 to go for the months target to be reached.
wether it’s longchamp or Wolverhampton this jockey just gets on with the job.
5/40

Frankie interviewed
“me, me,  34 years me, me me
not a mention of the winner .
like the mother of the groom who wears white to her son’s  wedding.

Frankie interviewed
“me, me,  34 years me, me me
not a mention of the winner .
like the mother of the groom who wears white to her son’s  wedding.

Ace impact ( win)is unbeaten and that has to be the starting point of interest.
High enough draw for one so young.
Through Seven Seas
Each way
Has a nice low draw. While it is disappointing not to see a Japanese jockey on board, he must have a huge chance as horses finishing in the mere flatulence slipstream of Equinox have routinely franked the form this year.
The frenzied Nippon hordes will likely smash the Paris mutual into tote £1 better than SP odds proportions.
Talking of trapped wind, (and I wasn’t) Frankie Dettori’s last ride in the Arc before he comes out of retirement next year to ride in the Arc (and the Breeders cup) is on Free wind (each way).
Ace impact 
win
 
Through Seven Seas
Free wind
Both each way

Fantastic meeting at longchamp coming up and 
1315
Beauvatier 
win
is the local unbeaten horse here.
NATIVE AMERICAN 
Each way
Richard Fahey sends his Irish sales race  winner here for a group one start. To be fair the sales race in Ireland is full of chancers hoping to bag 300k and this race is the real test of mettle. There is though an absentee drawn to race alongside this runner in stall 11 and that’ll potentially be a great help.
The horse he beat in Ireland runs in the 1415 at Epsom and is cross referenced in the Hugh Taylor thread.

Fantastic meeting at longchamp coming up and 
1315
Beauvatier 
win
is the local unbeaten horse here.
NATIVE AMERICAN 
Each way
Richard Fahey sends his Irish sales race  winner here for a group one start. To be fair the sales race in Ireland is full of chancers hoping to bag 300k and this race is the real test of mettle. There is though an absentee drawn to race alongside this runner in stall 11 and that’ll potentially be a great help.
The horse he beat in Ireland runs in the 1415 at Epsom and is cross referenced in the Hugh Taylor thread.

Chelmsford 2030
Moveonup 
admirable lad
both each way
 
could muck things up for the top weights here

Chelmsford 2000
archelinos gift
each way
darlos pride
each way
laertes
Win
knocking on the door for yard that ran into a tartar this evening 
archelinos pride and darlos pride both well treated and drawn ““alongside”  each other in stalls on the traverse. 13 & 1…… el Hibri expected to go well under top apprentice jockey but not certain to behave!!

Chelmsford 
1900
long old day in the wilds of gods county at hq.
Stall 1 at Chelmsford in sprints the place to be and this runner has halved in price at the post.
Well drawn and drops massively in class.
unusual for yard to go a week without a winner and this runner has not been in this class much  before today…….winner in 21 in a class higher than this off higher mark 
Mohareeb
each way
The waiting game
win
draw data horse
totally unexposed and this young horse looks progressive.
STOTT a strong booking. 
 

Stolz, karma and Blue marlin have all won easily at Sha Tin racetrack. Ariel was second to karma at 16/1 and returned each way. That is thirty seven more winners to go to reach my October target of forty.  If you’ve seen my selections at Chelmsford last night you’ll know I’m on the cusp of landing forecasts and tricasts using the Alexander method. I’ve tried to do one without the other. it was all draw data last night with the forecasting  and tricasting left to one side without the physics added. Hopefully sometime this month before the flat season is out I’ll attempt to land some forecasts and tricasts. It works just as well with national hunt and anywhere on the planet because we are all affected by the same laws of physics.

On a big day in France I’ll start the ball rolling at 
Sha Tin 0800
Dragons luck
win
Fast Victory 
each way
is worth a small interest on debut for David Hayes.
A winner in the Antipodes already,  the bar is not set too high for this runner and he could go well at a nice price.
May well need the run as always, but that is covered by the double figure odds. Keris Teeton is the jockey.
Dragon’s luck under the champion jockey, has gone close in recent runs and is the cover bet here. 

Ace impact ( win)is unbeaten and that has to be the starting point of interest.
High enough draw for one so young.
Through Seven Seas
Each way
Has a nice low draw. While it is disappointing not to see a Japanese jockey on board, he must have a huge chance as horses finishing in the mere flatulence slipstream of Equinox have routinely franked the form this year.
The frenzied Nippon hordes will likely smash the Paris mutual into tote £1 better than SP odds proportions.
Talking of trapped wind, (and I wasn’t) Frankie Dettori’s last ride in the Arc before he comes out of retirement next year to ride in the Arc (and the Breeders cup) is on Free wind (each way).
Ace impact 
win
 
Through Seven Seas
Free wind
Both each way

A nice day out, small relaxed crowd  a beautiful autumn day.  racing has certainly changed since the last time I went racing at hq. ( cockney rebel Guineas day) 
I can see why so few bother betting on course. Poor poor value. Crap prices and no each way places at all. Loads of stalls but no one brave enough to run any book all following each other like sheep and collectively fleecing racegoers. 

Cambridgeshire 
3:40
 
Majestic
Greek order
Both win
Eileen Dubh
Each way
Is the draw data horse along with Greek order.
seven year sweep of draw info here and a visit to the rails bookies yields just four places available to punters.
 
I did say to them “if fat Mac was here he’d have the lot of you!!”
COME RACING!!!!
(and bet online)

Winners 
western star
15/2 into 9/2 
 
phoenix star 
the lucky last at Newcastle 
solray
bolted up by a wide margin following previous good second to laoisman  (seven lengths clear of field that night)
celtic revival
penultimate winner at Dundalk 
I did the summary for the opener at Haydock in the Hugh Taylor thread, do you may have missed this write up….
“haydock 
 
Western stars
win
gets the main vote here after plenty of consideration.
Bought out of Ed Dunlop’s after a good second in a class three seller. (Seller and class three seems a contradiction in terms.) That’s two classes higher than this race. 
second on debut to a subsequent listed class horse rated 93 who also was eighth recently to Absurde. Went clear over too far before being reeled in this ex Dunlop horse looks never more comfortable than over a straight mile beating Cosmo raj over that trip. Has raced at class three and won at four. So this represents a big drop in class with the only question being the stamina factor over 1:2. 
in  any case the draw data puts this highest drawn runner in the driving seat as the highest drawn horses have prevailed in recent years.
a combination trifecta involving the three top weights is the saver hopefully the two bottom weights will stand their ground although both have big question marks carrying a penalty and hating soft ground.
 
win “
 

ike sport 4.00 ew paying extra places 

Just on the hunt for some value 
150 newm 
Astral beau. 8.7 12/1
Amayneh. 8.5 16/1
Coppice. 8.2 11/2
Tarawah. 8.1
Queen for you 8.1.
Bookies really fancy the bottom 3 rated .....but the top 2 look value bets Ew ....so I'll play and hope they outrun their odds 
5pt Ew top 2
 

Newmarket. 
Single 
5.20. Tregony         18/1        1st 
Newcastle. 
Double. 
7.00. Bernie the Bear     2/1     2nd 
7.30. Mawada                    11/1    unpl 
singles & double 
Good luck all. 

After a very nice start with a massive winner in the opener with western stars pulling clear to break more hearts for 1/100 backers . 15/2 went quickly in the ring and went off 9/2. Popotova also ran close at Newmarket at 8/1 each way. Otherwise it is hard going but good to get a winner at Doncaster.
later on at Dundalk in the opening claimer at 1635
Un Bacio Ancora
win
has all the factors in his favour. A very good second at the curragh last weekend, the draw data stats and the free energy theory all support this horse. A full runners analysis of the last two runnings points strongly to stall 6 which is ideal as that runner is out and drawn alongside the selection in stall 8. Saturday’s winner hold strong form lines  through Sioux spirit and was rated 92. The selections been raised 8 pounds but was up in the low 70s for Edmund Harty and here  two visits ago in February, ran third giving away lumps of weight. So definitely acts on the going and should get this, rated a long way clear and in form. Siobhan Rutledge claims three pounds too.
The only likely danger is Jalo who ran well here the last time Colin Keane rode him for Noel Meade he is drawn alongside in stall 7. Colin Keane often rides and assesses horses advising the yard on what to do to improve a horse either headgear or a change in trip or tactics and obviously even though it was a while ago change in trip was the advice and Keane is back on board.
but this a dramatic drop in trip for that runner and the only thing to do as a saver is to combine the pair in a small reverse forecast
Un Bacio Ancora
win
Un Bacio Ancora
Reverse forecast
With
Jalo