Sporting Sam

OCEANLINE ( each way)
SEA STONE
Ascot 4:30
NT FIELD MINNESOTA
Downpatrick 3:35

ROHAAN
Ascot 5:05
Beat the heat
Fontwell 5:15
As a winning pointer this trip will suit NT Minnesota for Willie Mullins has been found wanting over shorter.
Oceanline returns to the flat having been over jumps for in form David Pipe and is therefore a de facto stable switcher in this code. That said on reflection he’s an each way chance only given the presence of sea stone who replaces ocean line as a win bet.
Rohaan wins at least once a year and today with some give in the ground looks about right on a track where he has won four times. With Neil callan a top booking he must be primed to go for it today. I haven’t checked yet, but I’d say Hugh Taylor would be picking this one. Makes up ground hand over fist in all of his races and although down the field this season has been an eyecatcher. He has three wins in December and one on 1st October in his cv so today would be the latest autumn win. If he gets a clear run and does still retain ability. A horse who started out as a class six handicapper and ended up with group two glory and Royal Ascot and with a  controversial start in race where he returned lame this horse owes nothing to anyone. Except of course David Evans the maverick Trainer who has supplied me with lots of winners and continues to do so.
Beat the heat is a busy horse and bids to win at fontwell for the fourth visit on the trot.
it has been a long time since that last visit November, but that end a run of three wins in June and September. All runs at Fontwell yielded a return of 43111 with placed runs elsewhere. Beat the heat has just landed a 1 mile Six class four race at Bath so arrives locked and loaded.
oceanline is an each way bet as
Sea stone looks too good for these runners 
By Brasil is a second time runner for his new yard and career highlights for Joseph O’Brien was winning on debut and beating the mighty 158 rated jumper Zanahiyr  a notebook and watching brief is applied to this very interesting runner who is in first  time headgear.
All win singles and doubles and four timer.
 
 

OCEANLINE ( each way)
SEA STONE
Ascot 4:30
NT FIELD MINNESOTA
Downpatrick 3:35

ROHAAN
Ascot 5:05
Beat the heat
Fontwell 5:15
As a winning pointer this trip will suit NT Minnesota for Willie Mullins has been found wanting over shorter.
Oceanline returns to the flat having been over jumps for in form David Pipe and is therefore a de facto stable switcher in this code. That said on reflection he’s an each way chance only given the presence of sea stone who replaces ocean line as a win bet.
Rohaan wins at least once a year and today with some give in the ground looks about right on a track where he has won four times. With Neil callan a top booking he must be primed to go for it today. I haven’t checked yet, but I’d say Hugh Taylor would be picking this one. Makes up ground hand over fist in all of his races and although down the field this season has been an eyecatcher. He has three wins in December and one on 1st October in his cv so today would be the latest autumn win. If he gets a clear run and does still retain ability. A horse who started out as a class six handicapper and ended up with group two glory and Royal Ascot and with a  controversial start in race where he returned lame this horse owes nothing to anyone. Except of course David Evans the maverick Trainer who has supplied me with lots of winners and continues to do so.
Beat the heat is a busy horse and bids to win at fontwell for the fourth visit on the trot.
it has been a long time since that last visit November, but that end a run of three wins in June and September. All runs at Fontwell yielded a return of 43111 with placed runs elsewhere. Beat the heat has just landed a 1 mile Six class four race at Bath so arrives locked and loaded.
oceanline is an each way bet as
Sea stone looks too good for these runners 
By Brasil is a second time runner for his new yard and career highlights for Joseph O’Brien was winning on debut and beating the mighty 158 rated jumper Zanahiyr  a notebook and watching brief is applied to this very interesting runner who is in first  time headgear.
All win singles and doubles and four timer.
 
 

Forecast and tricasts have been murdered by the bookies over the years it used to be that forecasts were ---add 1 onto the second placed horse then multiply it by the first horse ie 10/1 x 20/1 would be 21x10 =210 tricast similar.
nowadays its a formulae that includes believe it or not things like are they drawn next to each other or close to each other, field sizes, or did ya granny back it blah blah. The biggie is its an aggregate of all the prices divided by ???? plus all the above. they are quite secretive about the formulae. Where i would differ from Micheal is that yes they are bad value but if you are spending lots of time rating a race then presumably you end up with a list of numbers if you are using those numbers to just predict the winner i would argue its a waste of good data if you don't do the forecasts and tricasts if they are "price worthy". personal example. lets say i want to spend £20 on a race in my experience it would be as thus (variable) £14 win 50p all ways forecast top 3 rated = £3. Then 50p all ways tricast top 3 rated = £3. All price dependant. 

Oceanline runs at ascot today for David Pipe and as such is a stable switcher with a twist.
Hes already run for Pipe over fences but this is his first flat run and is fit from hurdling and on a winning mark.
Dundalk the starting point of the supply line of Irish gambles on uk racetracks in particular the all weather is on today. The races crammed with runners and reserves who all take a hand in the outcome mean there is always scope there for a touch to be landed outside of the clutches of our overround fiddling bookies. It is not all plain sailing of course but there is always a “weigh in” ably assisted by some shrewd trainers…..
The mighty Rohaan is also in action and as a four times  course winner has to be respected as his trainers only runner today. Neil callan gets the gig fresh from sun power bolting up the other night under everyone’s unsuspecting eyes. I don’t buy that the cusp of the flat season is a tough time for punters. Opportunities  abound if you keep an open mind. Tons of tricks are being turned by trainers some horses are coming into their own and some are going off the boil.  Oh and there’s a horse returning to fontwell fresh from the flat and whose last three visits have been winners. The next winner is close to hand.

Oceanline runs at ascot today for David Pipe and as such is a stable switcher with a twist.
Hes already run for Pipe over fences but this is his first flat run and is fit from hurdling and on a winning mark.
Dundalk the starting point of the supply line of Irish gambles on uk racetracks in particular the all weather is on today. The races crammed with runners and reserves who all take a hand in the outcome mean there is always scope there for a touch to be landed outside of the clutches of our overround fiddling bookies. It is not all plain sailing of course but there is always a “weigh in” ably assisted by some shrewd trainers…..
The mighty Rohaan is also in action and as a four times  course winner has to be respected as his trainers only runner today. Neil callan gets the gig fresh from sun power bolting up the other night under everyone’s unsuspecting eyes. I don’t buy that the cusp of the flat season is a tough time for punters. Opportunities  abound if you keep an open mind. Tons of tricks are being turned by trainers some horses are coming into their own and some are going off the boil.  Oh and there’s a horse returning to fontwell fresh from the flat and whose last three visits have been winners. The next winner is close to hand.

Round up time
I had myself down for twenty winners so far but can only find 19 so until I find otherwise  
I need another 21 to reach my target. I’m taking a breather from here for a while to get some focus and plan to land a tricast in the interim. Going well.
winners so far in October 
sunday 1st October 
three in Hong Kong 
Stolz
Karma
Blue marlin
one in Düsseldorf ridden by Luke Morris.
Brave Emperor 
one at Longchamp 
Ace impact
one in the states on the USA thread.
Loved Reilko 
monday
R. Admiral  Won stateside @ 15/8
tuesday
chalk mountain 
tele red 
hartswood @ 8/1 ( was second to tele red before)
de capo
won the bumper for Gordon Elliott
two  more stateside 
extrasexibigdaddie 
three one o one 
todays winners
cannock park ( and the runner up)
mischief magic 
breeders cup winner to kempton park via two below par runs on turf and wind surgery. Pushed out to win and won well.
Act Of Authority ( won 14 lengths)
phoyosynthesis
 
classic concorde

my intelligent  ( and the runner up)
won in Hong Kong 
 

Round up time
I had myself down for twenty winners so far but can only find 19 so until I find otherwise  
I need another 21 to reach my target. I’m taking a breather from here for a while to get some focus and plan to land a tricast in the interim. Going well.
winners so far in October 
sunday 1st October 
three in Hong Kong 
Stolz
Karma
Blue marlin
one in Düsseldorf ridden by Luke Morris.
Brave Emperor 
one at Longchamp 
Ace impact
one in the states on the USA thread.
Loved Reilko 
monday
R. Admiral  Won stateside @ 15/8
tuesday
chalk mountain 
tele red 
hartswood @ 8/1 ( was second to tele red before)
de capo
won the bumper for Gordon Elliott
two  more stateside 
extrasexibigdaddie 
three one o one 
todays winners
cannock park ( and the runner up)
mischief magic 
breeders cup winner to kempton park via two below par runs on turf and wind surgery. Pushed out to win and won well.
Act Of Authority ( won 14 lengths)
phoyosynthesis
 
classic concorde

my intelligent  ( and the runner up)
won in Hong Kong 
 

This. 

It’s resolved, I’m carrying on. 
great ratings by Richard Westwood to bag this race. 👍.

It’s resolved, I’m carrying on. 
great ratings by Richard Westwood to bag this race. 👍.

Well....yesterday's bet was big let down ....well backed but blew it in stalls ..gave about 5 lengths away in last and that was it .....very disappointing but that's racing for ya ....
7.00 kemp 
Elzaam blue 8.0 6/1 
Saturnalia  7.8. 8/1 
Dionysian.  7.5 
Surrey noir 7.4 
Competitive race so I'll play safe and go 3pt Ew top 2 for a bit of action ...4 places 

Morning all
I'm on a relentless sweep towards a target of forty winners this month and am already on fourteen since Sunday including ace impact and the latest last night with two winners in America one of whom  bolting up by six plus lengths ( eased down)  the brilliantly monikered
Extrasexybigdaddie  and three one one. 
The  point of all this none. it is just fun on route to a more important target of understanding the physics that acts in the world around us and how remarkably that is expressed in a humble horse race crack that ( and I think I have) then I can move on to tricasting and forecasts.
Todays target is simple four winners  from fewer races.
if Navan is on, the search starts there in the first race.
 
Navan
1355
two horses fit my draw data criteria
stall 10 and 11
Occupied by 
Bruce lightning ( non runner)
SOUTHBANK
win best prices available 
OUR DAGGER
each way 150/1 or better 
 
Joseph O’Brien farms maidens particularly on the all weather and artificial surfaces is where his horses cut their teeth in preparation for track debuts and he may have one ready here.
One massive anomaly ( my favourite word this last month) in Irish racing is the use of barrier trials at Dundalk. They have now spread to turf barrier trials I think here at navan or naas this year. They are not widely publicised. Last year they appeared on the Racecard but no longer. The oddity of a horse in a maiden boasting a course and distance win is peculiar to Ireland and Hong Kong -where barrier trials  are mandatory -. 
immediately Bruce lightning is out, a non runner before even entering the racetrack.
two horses in particular may be impacted by the absence.
our dagger 150/1 was identified as a gelding and not an entire before his debut. He subsequently finished down the field. I’m expecting an improvement here. The other beneficiary may well be southbank never seen a race track but already fitted with headgear and readied to make an impact here.

Morning all
I'm on a relentless sweep towards a target of forty winners this month and am already on fourteen since Sunday including ace impact and the latest last night with two winners in America one of whom  bolting up by six plus lengths ( eased down)  the brilliantly monikered
Extrasexybigdaddie  and three one one. 
The  point of all this none. it is just fun on route to a more important target of understanding the physics that acts in the world around us and how remarkably that is expressed in a humble horse race crack that ( and I think I have) then I can move on to tricasting and forecasts.
Todays target is simple four winners  from fewer races.
if Navan is on, the search starts there in the first race.
 
Navan
1355
two horses fit my draw data criteria
stall 10 and 11
Occupied by 
Bruce lightning ( non runner)
SOUTHBANK
win best prices available 
OUR DAGGER
each way 150/1 or better 
 
Joseph O’Brien farms maidens particularly on the all weather and artificial surfaces is where his horses cut their teeth in preparation for track debuts and he may have one ready here.
One massive anomaly ( my favourite word this last month) in Irish racing is the use of barrier trials at Dundalk. They have now spread to turf barrier trials I think here at navan or naas this year. They are not widely publicised. Last year they appeared on the Racecard but no longer. The oddity of a horse in a maiden boasting a course and distance win is peculiar to Ireland and Hong Kong -where barrier trials  are mandatory -. 
immediately Bruce lightning is out, a non runner before even entering the racetrack.
two horses in particular may be impacted by the absence.
our dagger 150/1 was identified as a gelding and not an entire before his debut. He subsequently finished down the field. I’m expecting an improvement here. The other beneficiary may well be southbank never seen a race track but already fitted with headgear and readied to make an impact here.

Incident packed race revolving  around the top weight Chinese whisper. Saddle slipped on el Royale and pulled up. Soon after Chinese whisper went wrong and jockey ejected. Hope he’s ok and the horse. Opticality drawn alongside wins. Draw data horse takes fourth.
six strings placed at 10/1.
four winners today
chalk mountain 
tele red 
hartswood @ 8/1 ( was second to tele red before)
de capo
won the bumper for Gordon Elliott 
a total of 12 winners for the month 28 to go. So could  be up to 20 in the first week. 
having a go at the stateside racing  with the next race at   Presque Isle Downs 2121 as two of the twelve have come from there. 
 
Thirteenth winner landed at pressique isle tonight 2242.
with extrasexibigdaddie 
along with the first forecast of the month 
27 to go and three tricasts.
Fourteenth winner just landed stateside as three one o one gets home eased down by about eight lengths 
 
 

Wolverhampton 1900
suprise picture
chalk mountain 
both  win 
both won on their last visit here
top weight with a penalty 
Bottom weight unbeaten on the course 
Set to meet on the traverse at the draw and by the weights. One of these two should win, if nothing else gets in the way.
 

Wolverhampton 1900
suprise picture
chalk mountain 
both  win 
both won on their last visit here
top weight with a penalty 
Bottom weight unbeaten on the course 
Set to meet on the traverse at the draw and by the weights. One of these two should win, if nothing else gets in the way.
 

Ayr
1447
Hartswood
eachvway
AYR POET
Win
 
 

Ayr
1447
Hartswood
eachvway
AYR POET
Win
 
 

Ayr 1342
the defection of Chinese spirit throws a few plans up in the air now and class dropper in stall seven 
Tele Red
win
may feel the benefit. I was expecting to be extolling the virtues of another runner  but this one has collaborative form superiority by a long way over the two top course winners here. A five pound claim is the clincher and a last win over the trip was in the grade above.
 
Galway 1350
Les pour filles  @ evens
win
armed and fabulous 
each way
at the current prices these two are of interest.
gordon Elliott may have a horse here.
Jack Kennedy rides and this one was finishing to very good  effect in good company to take fifth in a grade one bumper at Liverpool in the spring.
With a comfortable staying on performance over a Willie Mullins horse at the Boxing Day festival and a point to point win, this horse is unbeaten over two miles and also unbeaten outside of class 1 company. Armed and fabulous makes most appeal of the Mullins horses and switches from Mags Mullins here.
olympic man the mount of Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the rides, is  hugely respected, especially as the yard’s regime of training and nutrition brings about marked improvement in horses which few yards are able to replicate legally. He hasn’t lit up the world as yet but has to be the main danger given the riding arrangements.
Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.

9.30 - all selections online
MASTER OF COMBAT produced three of his best efforts to date in his three runs at Wolverhampton last winter, and he’s handicapped to run very well if he returns to a similar level of form in the extended 1m handicap (Wolverhampton 6.00).
He hasn’t made much impact on turf this summer and ran poorly at Ripon last time, when he was probably unsuited by the track.
However, it had been a similar case around a year ago, as he had beaten an aggregate of one rival in his three previous turf starts before running three big races round here.
He was beaten a nose on the second of those runs, and on the third occasion he chased home War In Heaven, who has won five more races on the all-weather and is now rated 23lb higher, and Miss Bluebelle, who had bolted up over the same course and distance on her previous start, but hasn’t raced on the all-weather subsequently.
Master Of Combat needs to prove that he can re-find that sort of form, but he’s 9lb lower here than for that last Wolverhampton run and will be a big player if the return to this track sparks a revival. 
In the 1m7f handicap at Ayr (5.37) CANTALUPO BELLA can confirm that she’s well handicapped over staying distances.
She showed much-improved form stepped up beyond 1m4f at Nottingham last time, finishing second in a race where the field finished well strung out.
The winner Manxman has won all three subsequent starts and is now rated 79, having won off 56 that day, and Cantalupo Bella did well to get as close as she did to him.
She pulled nine lengths clear of the third, Tarbat Ness, who won on similar ground next time, with a further 20 lengths back to the remainder.
Clansman is a noted mudlark and should run another big race with the ground set to be in his favour, but he might face a tough task trying to concede 20lb to Cantalupo Bella. 
CHALK MOUNTAIN produced a career-best effort at Kempton last time, and with his stable going well he looks to have a good chance in the 7f handicap at Wolverhampton (7.00).
He was poorly drawn at Kempton and his track position suffered accordingly, and in the circumstances he did really well to sustain his run to the line, collared in the final 100 yards by the in-from King Of Ithaca.
Chalk Mountain has a better draw today, his sole win to date came on his only start here, and his trainer Stuart Kittow has been enjoying a purple patch, with three winners and seven placed horses from 19 runners since the start of September.
Flatley didn’t get the run of the race when selected in this column here last time and could bounce back, but I’m reluctant to support him at shortish odds again from a wider draw given he needs things to drop right.
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
5.37 AYR
1pt win CANTALUPO BELLA (11-4 general)
6.00 WOLVERHAMPTON
1pt win MASTER OF COMBAT (12-1 Bet Victor, bet365, 11-1 general)
7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON
1pt win CHALK MOUNTAIN (100-30 bet365, 3-1 & 11-4 general)
All prices correct at time of publishing

Ayr 1342
the defection of Chinese spirit throws a few plans up in the air now and class dropper in stall seven 
Tele Red
win
may feel the benefit. I was expecting to be extolling the virtues of another runner  but this one has collaborative form superiority by a long way over the two top course winners here. A five pound claim is the clincher and a last win over the trip was in the grade above.
 
Galway 1350
Les pour filles  @ evens
win
armed and fabulous 
each way
at the current prices these two are of interest.
gordon Elliott may have a horse here.
Jack Kennedy rides and this one was finishing to very good  effect in good company to take fifth in a grade one bumper at Liverpool in the spring.
With a comfortable staying on performance over a Willie Mullins horse at the Boxing Day festival and a point to point win, this horse is unbeaten over two miles and also unbeaten outside of class 1 company. Armed and fabulous makes most appeal of the Mullins horses and switches from Mags Mullins here.
olympic man the mount of Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the rides, is  hugely respected, especially as the yard’s regime of training and nutrition brings about marked improvement in horses which few yards are able to replicate legally. He hasn’t lit up the world as yet but has to be the main danger given the riding arrangements.
Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.

les pour filles non runner
quote
“Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.”….
Typically main runner in Ireland has been pulled and left with a slashed 8/1 ticket ( armed and fabulous) which will barely pay without winning.
Sedgfield 2pm
That’s jet
Win
Ran well behind a subsequent next time out winner who lost that race in the stewards afterwards.
No great shakes on the flat but transformed over hurdles and brings good form from Ireland and the experience might just be enough on debut for Scottish yard. Other flat horses have more scope with more runs to come but this one has the hurdle runs on the cv already.

Ayr 1342
the defection of Chinese spirit throws a few plans up in the air now and class dropper in stall seven 
Tele Red
win
may feel the benefit. I was expecting to be extolling the virtues of another runner  but this one has collaborative form superiority by a long way over the two top course winners here. A five pound claim is the clincher and a last win over the trip was in the grade above.
 
Galway 1350
Les pour filles  @ evens
win
armed and fabulous 
each way
at the current prices these two are of interest.
gordon Elliott may have a horse here.
Jack Kennedy rides and this one was finishing to very good  effect in good company to take fifth in a grade one bumper at Liverpool in the spring.
With a comfortable staying on performance over a Willie Mullins horse at the Boxing Day festival and a point to point win, this horse is unbeaten over two miles and also unbeaten outside of class 1 company. Armed and fabulous makes most appeal of the Mullins horses and switches from Mags Mullins here.
olympic man the mount of Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the rides, is  hugely respected, especially as the yard’s regime of training and nutrition brings about marked improvement in horses which few yards are able to replicate legally. He hasn’t lit up the world as yet but has to be the main danger given the riding arrangements.
Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.

Ayr 1342
the defection of Chinese spirit throws a few plans up in the air now and class dropper in stall seven 
Tele Red
win
may feel the benefit. I was expecting to be extolling the virtues of another runner  but this one has collaborative form superiority by a long way over the two top course winners here. A five pound claim is the clincher and a last win over the trip was in the grade above.
 
Galway 1350
Les pour filles  @ evens
win
armed and fabulous 
each way
at the current prices these two are of interest.
gordon Elliott may have a horse here.
Jack Kennedy rides and this one was finishing to very good  effect in good company to take fifth in a grade one bumper at Liverpool in the spring.
With a comfortable staying on performance over a Willie Mullins horse at the Boxing Day festival and a point to point win, this horse is unbeaten over two miles and also unbeaten outside of class 1 company. Armed and fabulous makes most appeal of the Mullins horses and switches from Mags Mullins here.
olympic man the mount of Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the rides, is  hugely respected, especially as the yard’s regime of training and nutrition brings about marked improvement in horses which few yards are able to replicate legally. He hasn’t lit up the world as yet but has to be the main danger given the riding arrangements.
Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.

PID 800 She's A Bossy Girl 7/4.   1st  👍
       854 Span Of Control 5/1 ew.   2nd.  👍
bet365.