Sporting Sam

I'll give it a whirl ....give me half hour 😁

Goodwood 1500
spanish star
win
indian creek
each way
Spanish star has won this race for last two years with help of Probert and Marquand.
tougher opponents here with good form claims but runs from near identical stall and has ground in favour if they all set sail too early.
 
 
 

Naas 1415
cornahilt soldier
bid for chester
both each way 
both the outsiders and it would be a shock for either to be involved but the draw and conditions a great leveller at times.

Didn'thavemuchtodo                                         2 50 Naas/                          1/40th og a pt ew   14/1
Punchbowel Flyer                                               3 00 Naas/                          1/40th of a pt ew    16/1
 
 
 
P/L    + 173.25 pts

Sha tin
0940
Lucky Encounter
win
unbeaten on good ground since stepping up in grade (3 wins) got into a scrap for the lead on heavy going a long way out and finished fifth on final run in June. Normal service resumed on seasonal reappearance here. If in same mood could stay ahead of the handicapper given ratings here. Stays in class three too.
****************************
one of two decent winners at the course today lucky Encounter.
grade two race at keeneland tonight 2112 sees me break the habit of a lifetime and not put this up at post time.
Mainly this is because  nothing will get in the way of the rugby World Cup clash between France and the springboks. I met a load of white saffas in paris and Lille many years ago back during the rugby World Cup South Africa was still at war internally and the team were still banned. it didn’t stop thousands of Boks travelling without the team to watch the tournament. The ones I met were great and they shared their bilton  and beer with us. There were of course a couple of vortrekkers who were throughly adamant things would go the other way and if you could stereotype an unpleasant South African this was them.
It’s great to see what a United rainbow 🌈 team look like now. 

keeneland  USA 2112 hours 
Caravel won the grade one breeders cup sprint turf in November and had some big names back in rear including highfield Princess. The key to winning then was a good break and getting to the first turn in front then controlling the fractions fastly or slower than horses not up with the break could deal with… decelerate , excelerate and then kick on at an even keel. Didn’t have to be the best, just had to dictate. Did it to aplomb and string the field out. Returns to the course tonight and down in grade may do the same again. I’ve been on winning Godolphin runners the last two nights here, but preference is for the breeder’s  cup champion giving six pounds away to regain the winning thread.
Caravel to win.
 
 

A winner and a “defacto winner” for me in Hugh’s two races yesterday.
instinctively bolted up from stall 1 and the form and the physics meant he was clear by a long long way. Interpretation of how the physics works negatively and positively is the challenging aspect and this will eventually lead to some decent forecasts and tricasts coming up. I’m just happy to land the winners until that time comes. When Moon was the second “winner” I was posting it up as they went off. Sometimes they delay loading and this time they were on time and I posted and then couldn’t get on as the race was off. The trouble with at the post assessing.
The excellent @richard-westwood had already put that runner up hours before and I could have saved myself the trouble by reading his and @black rabbit 
posts a bit closer.
The Alexander system which I haven’t said too much about is working it’s infuriated a few ( because it’s not the norm and someone tells us all how things should be and what works and what doesn’t) but to be fair that’s tough. What a boring old world it would be if we all thought the same.
 
          Published 9.08, 9.14, 9.24 - all selections online
In the 7f nursery at Newmarket (4.25) CONDEmight have a better chance than his dismissive odds suggest.
He hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start in 7f nurseries, both of which came on testing ground. 
He was too keen in a valuable event at Goodwood in August, also racing away from where the best part of the track, and in the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising that he couldn’t make much impact in the closing stages.
  Having been gelded, he was then sent to Beverley to contest a 7f novice, and although he was eventually beaten four lengths by the winner Peace Walk, that was only after they had fought out a sustained duel up the straight, Conde only weakening in the final 150 yards.
He had set a fierce gallop that day - over a second faster than that set by the 82-rated four-year-old Autumn Festival, who made all in the following race – and in the circumstances I think he shaped well.
I thought Peace Walk franked the form despite being narrowly beaten at short odds at Ayr on Friday, and although this is a warm handicap with a number of lightly-raced types from big yards, Conde looks favourably handicapped off a mark of just 71 and might go well off his light weight. 
ARAGON CASTLE was selected in this column for the valuable class 2 nursery at the Ebor meeting, and having not been seen to best effect that day he might be worth another chance over the extended 7f distance at the same track (York 1.50).
His high draw didn’t help him that day, also not getting the clearest of passages up the straight, and he was running on again at the finish.
He had previously recorded a good time figure when second in testing ground at Chester, and he held entries in the Royal Lodge Stakes and Champagne Stakes entries at one stage.
Back on testing ground and down in grade, he looks worth another chance. 
TITIAN goes very well on soft ground, is in good form, has a terrific record at this time of year and won on his only previous start at the track, so he looks to have a lot in his favour in the 1m2f handicap at York (3.35).
He battled on well to spring a 33-1 surprise in the other 1m2f handicap on this card last year, when that event was run as a class 3 0-95 handicap rather than the class 4 0-85 event on today’s card.
He ran very well in a pair of hot class 2 handicaps at the start of the season on testing ground and has continued to hold his form in four subsequent starts over the summer despite not getting his ideal conditions.
His three career wins have come in October (twice) and late September, unsurprisingly for one who goes so well with give underfoot. His stable has been going very well and it will be surprising if he doesn’t give a good account.
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
1.50 YORK
1pt win ARAGON CASTLE (6-1 general)
3.35 YORK
1pt win TITIAN (7-1 William Hill, 13-2 bet365, 6-1 general)
4.25 NEWMARKET
1pt each-way CONDE (22-1 Betfair Sportsbook, bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet - all paying four places)
All

Sha tin
0940
Lucky Encounter
win
unbeaten on good ground since stepping up in grade (3 wins) got into a scrap for the lead on heavy going a long way out and finished fifth on final run in June. Normal service resumed on seasonal reappearance here. If in same mood could stay ahead of the handicapper given ratings here. Stays in class three too.
****************************
one of two decent winners at the course today lucky Encounter.
grade two race at keeneland tonight 2112 sees me break the habit of a lifetime and not put this up at post time.
Mainly this is because  nothing will get in the way of the rugby World Cup clash between France and the springboks. I met a load of white saffas in paris and Lille many years ago back during the rugby World Cup South Africa was still at war internally and the team were still banned. it didn’t stop thousands of Boks travelling without the team to watch the tournament. The ones I met were great and they shared their bilton  and beer with us. There were of course a couple of vortrekkers who were throughly adamant things would go the other way and if you could stereotype an unpleasant South African this was them.
It’s great to see what a United rainbow 🌈 team look like now. 

keeneland  USA 2112 hours 
Caravel won the grade one breeders cup sprint turf in November and had some big names back in rear including highfield Princess. The key to winning then was a good break and getting to the first turn in front then controlling the fractions fastly or slower than horses not up with the break could deal with… decelerate , excelerate and then kick on at an even keel. Didn’t have to be the best, just had to dictate. Did it to aplomb and string the field out. Returns to the course tonight and down in grade may do the same again. I’ve been on winning Godolphin runners the last two nights here, but preference is for the breeder’s  cup champion giving six pounds away to regain the winning thread.
Caravel to win.
 
 

Chepstow 
 
Kap Boy
win
nicholls again and big things expected here.

York 1645
Star Ahoy
win
this is a free energy bet and this receives it  in bundles here.
Based on debut and first three runs all winners of his races are competing at listed or better now and one contested the cesarawitch today. Potentially well clear here and Haggas has likely placed this runner well.
 

Hi there and thanks for putting this up.
my angle here is the form and the draw. I think Alcohol free will retain ability in time but the transition to a new world is massive and training methods nutrition etc is so different. He needs to reach racing weight over there and acclimatise fully. That said it’s all factored into his massive price over 66/1. Espiona under Hugh Bowman looks interesting having won the coolmore and zac purton is also over from Hong Kong.
ESPONIA 
Win
THINK ABOUT IT
ten from eleven hard to oppose on that form.
Win
ALCHOL FREE
Each way
group 1 winnner in July last year and can’t help thinking it’s too early in career to hit the straps running here but may well be under the radar finished third at goodwood to one of the best horses in recent years on last English appearance.
good luck and thank you again 
 

There are some decent results from stable switchers you simply read up who’s new and then dig a little. Some days you could back them all to a £1 stake and wind up in profit. But as I said go through them find a reason long travel winning mark sole runner steward report long time off drop in grade headgear there is always an indicator….
 
Name        Time        Cse        From        To        From Strike        To Strike        Lord Protector         15:35        York        Beckett, R M        Carr, Mrs R A        16%        6%        Star Of St Louis         19:00        Chelmsford City        Gansera-Leveque, Mrs Ilka        Crawley, Matt        0%        0%        Parish Star         13:55        Chepstow        Bolger, J S        Hawke, N J                8%        All Ways And Ever         13:35        Hexham        McCourt, T G        Thompson, V                2%        Overcourt        14:45        Hexham        Thomson, A M        Coltherd, W S        15%        11%        Kandor         17:05        Hexham        Scudamore, M J        Russell, Miss Lucinda V        11%        11%      Post  

A winner and a “defacto winner” for me in Hugh’s two races yesterday.
instinctively bolted up from stall 1 and the form and the physics meant he was clear by a long long way. Interpretation of how the physics works negatively and positively is the challenging aspect and this will eventually lead to some decent forecasts and tricasts coming up. I’m just happy to land the winners until that time comes. When Moon was the second “winner” I was posting it up as they went off. Sometimes they delay loading and this time they were on time and I posted and then couldn’t get on as the race was off. The trouble with at the post assessing.
The excellent @richard-westwood had already put that runner up hours before and I could have saved myself the trouble by reading his and @black rabbit 
posts a bit closer.
The Alexander system which I haven’t said too much about is working it’s infuriated a few ( because it’s not the norm and someone tells us all how things should be and what works and what doesn’t) but to be fair that’s tough. What a boring old world it would be if we all thought the same.
 
          Published 9.08, 9.14, 9.24 - all selections online
In the 7f nursery at Newmarket (4.25) CONDEmight have a better chance than his dismissive odds suggest.
He hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start in 7f nurseries, both of which came on testing ground. 
He was too keen in a valuable event at Goodwood in August, also racing away from where the best part of the track, and in the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising that he couldn’t make much impact in the closing stages.
  Having been gelded, he was then sent to Beverley to contest a 7f novice, and although he was eventually beaten four lengths by the winner Peace Walk, that was only after they had fought out a sustained duel up the straight, Conde only weakening in the final 150 yards.
He had set a fierce gallop that day - over a second faster than that set by the 82-rated four-year-old Autumn Festival, who made all in the following race – and in the circumstances I think he shaped well.
I thought Peace Walk franked the form despite being narrowly beaten at short odds at Ayr on Friday, and although this is a warm handicap with a number of lightly-raced types from big yards, Conde looks favourably handicapped off a mark of just 71 and might go well off his light weight. 
ARAGON CASTLE was selected in this column for the valuable class 2 nursery at the Ebor meeting, and having not been seen to best effect that day he might be worth another chance over the extended 7f distance at the same track (York 1.50).
His high draw didn’t help him that day, also not getting the clearest of passages up the straight, and he was running on again at the finish.
He had previously recorded a good time figure when second in testing ground at Chester, and he held entries in the Royal Lodge Stakes and Champagne Stakes entries at one stage.
Back on testing ground and down in grade, he looks worth another chance. 
TITIAN goes very well on soft ground, is in good form, has a terrific record at this time of year and won on his only previous start at the track, so he looks to have a lot in his favour in the 1m2f handicap at York (3.35).
He battled on well to spring a 33-1 surprise in the other 1m2f handicap on this card last year, when that event was run as a class 3 0-95 handicap rather than the class 4 0-85 event on today’s card.
He ran very well in a pair of hot class 2 handicaps at the start of the season on testing ground and has continued to hold his form in four subsequent starts over the summer despite not getting his ideal conditions.
His three career wins have come in October (twice) and late September, unsurprisingly for one who goes so well with give underfoot. His stable has been going very well and it will be surprising if he doesn’t give a good account.
HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):
1.50 YORK
1pt win ARAGON CASTLE (6-1 general)
3.35 YORK
1pt win TITIAN (7-1 William Hill, 13-2 bet365, 6-1 general)
4.25 NEWMARKET
1pt each-way CONDE (22-1 Betfair Sportsbook, bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet - all paying four places)
All

Hi there and thanks for putting this up.
my angle here is the form and the draw. I think Alcohol free will retain ability in time but the transition to a new world is massive and training methods nutrition etc is so different. He needs to reach racing weight over there and acclimatise fully. That said it’s all factored into his massive price over 66/1. Espiona under Hugh Bowman looks interesting having won the coolmore and zac purton is also over from Hong Kong.
ESPONIA 
Win
THINK ABOUT IT
ten from eleven hard to oppose on that form.
Win
ALCHOL FREE
Each way
group 1 winnner in July last year and can’t help thinking it’s too early in career to hit the straps running here but may well be under the radar finished third at goodwood to one of the best horses in recent years on last English appearance.
good luck and thank you again 
 

10,372,484.41
sterling to the winner. That is some insane prize money.
It makes the Melbourne cup look like the racing league at lingfield on a Thursday night.
The starting price of the winner was some value. Darran  thank you again. 👍 

Hi there and thanks for putting this up.
my angle here is the form and the draw. I think Alcohol free will retain ability in time but the transition to a new world is massive and training methods nutrition etc is so different. He needs to reach racing weight over there and acclimatise fully. That said it’s all factored into his massive price over 66/1. Espiona under Hugh Bowman looks interesting having won the coolmore and zac purton is also over from Hong Kong.
ESPONIA 
Win
THINK ABOUT IT
ten from eleven hard to oppose on that form.
Win
ALCHOL FREE
Each way
group 1 winnner in July last year and can’t help thinking it’s too early in career to hit the straps running here but may well be under the radar finished third at goodwood to one of the best horses in recent years on last English appearance.
good luck and thank you again 
 

10,372,484.41
sterling to the winner. That is some insane prize money.
It makes the Melbourne cup look like the racing league at lingfield on a Thursday night.
The starting price of the winner was some value. Darran  thank you again. 👍 

Hi there and thanks for putting this up.
my angle here is the form and the draw. I think Alcohol free will retain ability in time but the transition to a new world is massive and training methods nutrition etc is so different. He needs to reach racing weight over there and acclimatise fully. That said it’s all factored into his massive price over 66/1. Espiona under Hugh Bowman looks interesting having won the coolmore and zac purton is also over from Hong Kong.
ESPONIA 
Win
THINK ABOUT IT
ten from eleven hard to oppose on that form.
Win
ALCHOL FREE
Each way
group 1 winnner in July last year and can’t help thinking it’s too early in career to hit the straps running here but may well be under the radar finished third at goodwood to one of the best horses in recent years on last English appearance.
good luck and thank you again 
 

Alsokib won ...struth Ew 4th ...returns 65.00 (+45.00) 

Some excellent work LG well done. I’m intrigued and often trawl over the racing tv videos to check out some of the unseats. I have nothing but admiration for national hunt jockeys, but one or two unseats look suspicious and off course, the subsequent results bear that out. I’d be interested to collaborate with you on this in some way. Give me some idea of your methodology Lee.

Loving it last I looked the guy in the bookie was losing. I’ve had a full day out got plenty dug and still done my racing .
 
keeneland 2216
 Bold act win
channel maker each way 
hopefully Jamie Spenser follows as told  

back to normal  on Friday 13th
with 

Eight winners as Charlie Appleby wins at Newmarket and across the pond.
instinctively was the draw data selection at Newmarket in the opener and with the ground in his favour was not for stopping in the low stall.    
Captain Teague made a rock solid debut over Hurdles and oozed class. 

SALVUCCIO Won tonight “ foals to Newcastle “.tried and tested route from Newmarket to Newcastle for George Boughey.
I’m Spartacus got home best of all tonight 
ORDEROFTHEPHOENIX
Devoted Queen
full draw data and yard form historical selection.
Barnso was another winner at Dundalk.
Finally 
Bold Act @ 7/4 returns a huge price running off 8:10 as the only three year old.
Seven additional runners returned each way money.
Golden Plantina in the penultimate race at Kawasaki was a tasty third at 66/1. Only race covered in Japan.
Struth and satin both rewarded each way interest and were third and fourth at Newmarket.
northern express   9/1
star harbour
mad blacks Eight
Curuzon Queen  33-1was a very close up third in a blanket finish at Dundalk 
Brilliant ran a blinder but was only deployed as a pace maker  so was optimised two furlongs short.
the  nutted list   is the roll of honour for those selections which had to settle for second place and 
kadeen  
He’s an Angel
ELZAAL
cool run  (winner selected)
MARKAKOL
northern express 

back to normal  on Friday 13th
with 

Eight winners as Charlie Appleby wins at Newmarket and across the pond.
instinctively was the draw data selection at Newmarket in the opener and with the ground in his favour was not for stopping in the low stall.    
Captain Teague made a rock solid debut over Hurdles and oozed class. 

SALVUCCIO Won tonight “ foals to Newcastle “.tried and tested route from Newmarket to Newcastle for George Boughey.
I’m Spartacus got home best of all tonight 
ORDEROFTHEPHOENIX
Devoted Queen
full draw data and yard form historical selection.
Barnso was another winner at Dundalk.
Finally 
Bold Act @ 7/4 returns a huge price running off 8:10 as the only three year old.
Seven additional runners returned each way money.
Golden Plantina in the penultimate race at Kawasaki was a tasty third at 66/1. Only race covered in Japan.
Struth and satin both rewarded each way interest and were third and fourth at Newmarket.
northern express   9/1
star harbour
mad blacks Eight
Curuzon Queen  33-1was a very close up third in a blanket finish at Dundalk 
Brilliant ran a blinder but was only deployed as a pace maker  so was optimised two furlongs short.
the  nutted list   is the roll of honour for those selections which had to settle for second place and 
kadeen  
He’s an Angel
ELZAAL
cool run  (winner selected)
MARKAKOL
northern express 

Ffs you remind me of the guys in the bookies running round trying to get a bet on every race ,, what you fancy in the next at Steepledowns 😂

Wen moon heavily backed in last finishes off a fab day .... +147.50 😁

And yes ....I did back the forecast today whoop 😀......35 .00 for the win ....33.05 for the forecast 😀