danj2202
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Posts posted by danj2202
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting final play of the night 4 pts Washington Nationals (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 2.10 Skybet 2 pts Washington Nationals (-3.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 4.10 bet365 I cannot take Jerome Williams seriously as a starter in the majors. Teams dont release you if you are a good starter and Houston and Texas two of the poorer teams in baseball both waived Williams last season alone. He carries a career ERA of 4.40 and over the past 3 seasons has a 6.35 ERA against these Nationals. The Phillies will continue to struggle putting runs on the board all year and Gio Gonzalez has enough of a history to suggest a rebound season after struggling with location of his pitches and injuries last year led to a poor overall season. The Nats have enough players that are competent of better at the plate that they will surely score some runs tonight and even up at 2-2 for the year
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting I am going to play one more 4 pts Colorado Rockies (-1.5) to beat Chicago Cubs 2.50 Stan James 2 pts Colorado Rockies (-4.5) to beat Chicago Cubs 6.75 bet365 Now, I am aware the sample size is small and the opponents fairly different, but the Rockies have scored 20 runs opening the season 3-0 while the Cubs have mustered 2 splitting two games with St Louis. Travis Wood was poor last year coming off a decent year the previous year, he compiled an ERA over 5 in his two starts against the injury riddled Rockies, when healthy as they are now this team can score and as long as Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez remain in the lineup they can score runs in bunches and have done so in their series in Milwaukee, now they come home for the opener with youngster Tyler Matzek on the hill. He had a rough start last year arriving in the majors earlier than planned due to the multitude of injuries suffered by the Rockies pitching staff and was shelled, he did however improve throughout the season, learned some lessons and finished strong. If he continues to progress then he could well be more than a serviceable starter and I would rather take a chance on the youngster than trust Travis Wood at altitude and his 4.11 career ERA over 4 seasons split between the Reds and Cubs. If the bats of the Cubs continue to struggle - Kris Bryant's shadow? - then this could be a blowout
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Re: Aintree Tipsters Competition ~ Day 3 Selections 1.30: As de Mee 2.05: Gods Own 2.50: Zarkandar 3.25: Buywise 4.15: Rocky Creek 5.10: Ruler of All 5.40: Babylone Des Motte
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 5 pts Detroit Tigers to beat Cleveland Indians 2.05 Coral 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 2.80 Bet365 1 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 5.50 Bet365 This is a case of trusting that Alfredo Simon returns to his performance of the first half of last season in Cincinnati rather than the level of pitching he showed post all star break. Cleveland will be hoping Zach McAllister pitches better than he did at all last season when his ERA was over 5. I did give McAllister the benefit of the doubt and checked going back 3 years, however his ERA in that period of time is still 4.30 and spikes above 5 in his 8 starts against Detroit. Its a case of trusting the numerous big bats in this Tigers lineup to punish a guy who realistically should probably be a relief pitcher more than the potential of Simon's 2nd half regression continuing into this season. The Tigers bats hit the Twins hard in their season opener which is encouraging. I dont anticipate playing anything else but will be taking a second look later just in case I have missed anything
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 6 pts Texas Rangers to beat Houston Astros 2.00 Bet365 3 pts Texas Rangers (-1.5) to beat Houston Astros 3.15 Bet365 Again I am unsure of these prices, it can be difficult to get a handle early in the season and you have to rely on your opinions on players rather than what they are actually doing in the present, Derek Holland is a reliable starting pitcher with experience who missed most of last year through injury. Collin McHugh will oppose for Houston and while he had clearly the best season of his career last year, I very much live by the motto that you have to do it a second time to make me a believer and the 27 year old gets that opportunity starting tonight. I just get the sense that this game is priced up as if it was being played last season - clearly it isnt. The Rangers were bad last year, they were decimated by injury and this lineup has potential to put runs on the board in a hurry, as it has already done in this young season while their Houston counterparts have scuffled somewhat through their first three games.
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Padres created more opportunities to score but paid the price for poor situational hitting3 pts San Diego Padres (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 2.75 William Hill :(8-13total staked 57 ptstotal returns 57.35 ptsprofit +0.35 pts -
Re: US Masters - Augusta National > April 9th - 12th 3 shots with 54 holes to play on this golf course is miniscule. I like spieth and he could win but 9/4 represents no value at all to me
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Never trust a gambler 3 pts San Diego Padres (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 2.75 William Hill This is quite simple, despite it being early the Giants are suffering, they have some injures early, Brandon Belt is a player they were hoping to lean on this year adding to the injuries the pitching staff is suffering through and the absence of the Panda who now resides in Boston. Tim Hudson pitches tonight and he was really streaky last year winning and losing games in bunches, he didnt fare too well against the Padres of last year, this years Padres are vastly superior offensively, which lets face it isnt actually all that hard. Ian Kennedy has a cracking record against the Giants over the last three seasons and considering the Giants offense appears to be trending down and he should be able to bank on increased offensive backing then I think the Friars are worth a small play tonight
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Re: Aintree Tipsters Competition ~ Day 2 Selections 1.40:Pearl Swan 2.15:Qewy 2.50:Carraig Mor 3.25:Don Cossack 4.05:Rajdhani Express 4.40:Roi Des Francs 5.15:Persian Delight
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Right, I looked at Oakland and Toronto but both are a lot shorter than I expected and I have no plays for tonight, I am off to watch the darts and the golf and will see you all tomorrow - good luck with the posted picks for tonight (especially the White Sox ones!!!!!)
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Love that no home run bet pete. Weather forecast looks helpful for keeping the ball in the park too
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
4 pts Kansas City Royals to beat Chicago White Sox 1.83 Skybet:) 2 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 2.75 William Hill:) 4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 2.25 Bet365:( 1 pts Boston Red Sox (-5.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 10.00 Bet365:( 4 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 2.75 Skybet:( 2 pts Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 5.75 Bet365:( 3 pts Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 8.5 runs 1.91 Stan James :) 3 pts San Diego Padres to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 2.15 Betvictor:( 1 pts San Diego Padres (-3.5) to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 6.25 Bet365:(
Will update figures post writing previews for tonight which may be fairly short notice for some of the games 8-12 total staked 54 pts total returns 57.35 pts profit +3.35 ptsDaily Double - Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run and Miami Marlins to beat Atlanta Braves - 1pts @ 8.00 Paddy Power:( -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
3 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 3.15 Bet365:( 2 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 6.25 Bet365:( 5 pts Over 8.5 total runs 2.00 Coral:) 3 pts Colorado Rockies to beat Milwaukee Brewers 2.20 Skybet:)
5-5 total staked 29pts total returns 38.80 pts profit +9.80 pts rest of tonights slate to go as well, :hope4 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.05 Ladbrokes :) 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 3.90 bet365:) -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Ok, this is something of an experiment Daily Double - Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run and Miami Marlins to beat Atlanta Braves - 1pts @ 8.00 Paddy Power I dont really have a great case to make as to why the Marlins will win this game, Tom Koehler is winless against the Braves in his career and isnt exacty a top level starter, however this Braves team should be less potent than recent years despite the fact they have won the first two games of this set. Stanton has a decent record in small sample size against Shelby Miller tonights pitcher making his Braves debut after being traded from the Cardinals. Stanton is 3 for 5 with 2 home runs against Miller and has been quiet in the series to this point, his is not a bat that stays quiet for too long and we are on at a great price if he continues to see the ball well out of Shelby Millers hand. I figure its worth a shot and see how we get on as these markets intrigue me somewhat that is my lot for the night - good luck all who play
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Re: Aintree Tipsters Competition ~ Day 1 Selections 1.40:cash and go 2.15:hargam 2.50:ma filleule 3.25:rock on ruby 4.05:on the fringe 4.40:definite dream 5.15:unique de cotte
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Good stuff yesterday Dan' date=' called both perfectly (unfortunately so with regards to Rubbish de la Rosa :( ) :ok[/quote'] yep cheers dude, was always teh risk trusting poor pitching, was a sensible cover really -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 4 pts Kansas City Royals to beat Chicago White Sox 1.83 Skybet 2 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 2.75 William Hill Much as this breaks my heart, Kansas City always seem to play my Sox well, and particularly Quintana who will pitch for Chicago tonight. Jose Quintana for me is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball and I anticipate plenty of opportunity to make money on him this year, however, tonight is not that night. In his career against the Royals (12 starts) he is 0-6 with an ERA of 4.38 and was tagged for the loss in 3 of 4 against KC last season. Danny Duffy will oppose for Kansas City, whose bats had success in their opening day 9-1 victory against Chicago and he is solid if not spectacular with a 1-1 record and a sub 3.5 ERA in 3 starts against the White Sox. All being told it is much easier to build a case to back Kansas City tonight and I feel they should be shorter than the prices available and by proxy there is value there. 4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 2.25 Bet365 1 pts Boston Red Sox (-5.5) to beat Philadelphia Phillies 10.00 Bet365 A pitcher who has arguably the best season of their career is not to be trusted and to be honest I never really trusted Aaron Harang in the first place and coming off a career low ERA and 4th highest win total of his career I am looking for some regression towards his career ERA which is almost a run higher than the 3.57 number Harang posted last year - on a much better Braves team than this Phillies outfit. Much like Pete I have reasonably high hopes for Rick Porcello this year and this Phillies offense is woeful and shouldnt put many runs on the board - they were the worst offense in Spring Training this year and thats not really any worse than expected of the aging outfit. Boston shouldnt need to club 5 home runs like they did against Hamels on opening day to take this matchup - the drift in Bostons price confuses me somewhat, but hell thats to our advantage I guess. 4 pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 2.75 Skybet 2 pts Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 5.75 Bet365 I am not sure what the basis is for Tampa being favourites in this game, granted it is only slight favourites but the Rays are a team making some serious adjustments to life without their long time manager Joe Madden who now is in charge at the Cubs and against the reigning division champs Baltimore they have not enjoyed much success. Jake Odorizzi will pitch tonight for Tampa, four of this Orioles lineup hit home runs against Odorizzi last year and his ERA against the O's was 6.52 for the season. MIguel Gonzalez is solid in opposition for Baltimore tonight and carries a 3-1 record and 2.64 ERA in 5 career starts at Tropicana Field. Baltimore has been successful in 9 of its last 12 games in Tampa. So I am sure we can all see why Tampa are slight favourites to win right? 3 pts Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 8.5 runs 1.91 Stan James I dont usually like the over early in the season but this game is indoors so the cold wont affect the ball and these pitchers had relative struggles last season. While Wily Peralta exceeded expectations, I trust my eye and his number is false, I expect regression this year and I expect runs. Peralta carries a 6.46 career ERA against these Rockies, he allowed 8 runs in just 16 innings over 2 starts against them last season. Eddie Butler will oppose, he was one of a multitude of people to pitch for the Rockies last year - I was in fact awaiting a phone call myself at one point!! he was ineffective allowing 12 runs in 16 innings over his 3 starts, an ERA of 6.75, its a small sample size but both these teams are capable of putting runs on the board and the pitchers tonight could help the cause 3 pts San Diego Padres to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 2.15 Betvictor 1 pts San Diego Padres (-3.5) to beat Los Angeles Dodgers 6.25 Bet365 These are not the light hitting Padres of old, they are perfectly capable of putting runs on the board and Brandon McCarthy pitches tonight for Los Angeles. McCarthy was disgustingly bad early on last season pitching for Arizona prior to the trade to New York when he transformed into a reasonable starting pitcher. I am inclined to trust the poor start more than the strong finish, especially with his poor numbers from the spring. Andrew Cashner was nothing but solid when healthy last year, he had a 2.55 ERA for the season (19 starts) which dropped to 1.43 at home in 11 starts - the win totals will improve for these pitchers with the offensive output. Over the last three seasons Cashner has consistently been a run lower than McCarthy with an ERA of 3.06 compared to McCarthys number of 4.00 - I know who I am trusting with my money in this game. Mets is a brave call Pete - though I am glad you finally came out and admitted it with deGrom........whens Kyle Hendricks pitching? :rollin Trying not to get carried away here as its early on but theres quite a few I like tonight and restraint cost me a profit on opening night good luck all who play EDIT (May be back for one more later dependent on prices)
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Am at work so will update the figures later 4 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.05 Ladbrokes 2 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 3.90 bet365 I was unsure whether to play this as I like Ricky Nolasco as a pitcher but you cant get away from his struggles last season and he lacks consistency these days. Whne his stuff is on he is great but he is off more than on these days and I am going to side with the ultra consistent Anibal Sanchez backed by the potent Tigers offense here. Back with more later but thats the end of my lunch break
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 3 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 3.15 Bet365 2 pts Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) to beat San Francisco Giants 6.25 Bet365 5 pts Over 8.5 total runs 2.00 Coral I am willing to take a punt in this matchup. There should be runs, the Diamondbacks have plenty of pop in their lineup with the likes of Goldschmidt and Trumbo and are massively capable of putting a crooked number on the scoreboard. Ryan Vogelsong has the honour of following staff ace and World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner tonight. in 13 April starts over the last three seasons Vogelsong has a 1-4 record with an ERA of 5.42. In 13 starts against Arizona in the same time frame is 1-4 with a 5.70 ERA and in 4 starts at Chase Field is 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA. There is every reason to believe that the historical slow starter could struggle tonight and I will throw a bit of cash at Arizona at decent prices. Now, teh fly in the ointment is Rubby de la Rosa on debut for Arizona after coming from Boston in the Wade Miley trade. he was BRUTAL for the Red Sox last season and while I acknowledge trusting him is something of a risk, I will cover the over at 8.5 to get our cash back just in case. 3 pts Colorado Rockies to beat Milwaukee Brewers 2.20 Skybet The Brewers could miss their most potent offensive weapon in Ryan Braun tonight after he left the opener early, taking that into account and the emergence of Jordan Lyles amongst the steaming hot mess of the Colorado pitching last season, he is under rated and the price is under valued here. Lyles was nothing but solid last season and has a good record against these Brewers lasting 7 innings in 4 of 5 with a 1.17 ERA (granted the other start wasnt very good). Matt Garza was not his usual self last season and has followed it up with his usual poor spring performance. Following on from a 10-0 victory in the opener I will take the Rox to follow up tonight at odds against. Good luck all who play
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
1-3 total staked 10 pts total returns 6.20 profit -3.80 pts onwards and upwards2 pts Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) to beat New York Yankees 3.10 Bet365:) 2 pts Washington Nationals (-1.5) to beat NY Mets 2.30 Ladbrokes:( 4 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 2.67 Bet365:( 2 pts Miami Marlins (-3.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 5.75 Bet365:( -
Re: R.I.P. DevilFish heck of a player, RIP
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Great start for you there Pete, Wainwright looks like the surgery has done the trick and a pitcher to rely on again. Time for me to dip my toe in the water. 2 pts Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) to beat New York Yankees 3.10 Bet365 I dont know where the offensive production comes from for New York, they are a team of aging players and younger players that have a lot to prove with the bat such as Jeter's heir apparent Didi Gregorius. The youngster Drew Hutchison gets the start at Yankee Stadium for the Jays and a lineup that consists of the aforementioned Gregorius, the notoriously slow starting Teixeira, returning from suspension A-Rod, Carlos Beltran after surgery in the offseason......get the picture? it should pose a hell of a lot less problems for him than the lineup that Masahiro Tanaka will face for Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson is a headache for any pitcher and while Tanaka is the bigger name in this matchup, I cannot realistically consider backing any pitcher who we know is trying to pitch through elbow trouble - he should have written off a year and had the Tommy John surgery midway through last year when the UCL tear was diagnosed. On that basis alone it is worth a chance for me on Toronto to start with a win . 2 pts Washington Nationals (-1.5) to beat NY Mets 2.30 Ladbrokes The Nats start the season as World Series favourites with their free agent Prize Max Scherzer, the former AL Cy Young award winner comes across to the national league where it s "easier" and will face the Mets in the opener. New York have not been a powerhouse on offense for a number of seasons relying on David Wright and Lucas Duda for power. The Nats do have some injury concerns heading into the opener themselves and it could be argued that they didnt really need pitching and the money spent on Scherzer could have been spent more effectively bolstering the offensive side, a power hittng first baseman would have been a nice addition for example, the Nats are the better team, they have the edge in the pitching matchup as Bartolo Colon returns yet again at 41 years old and at some point he must cease to be effective but enthusiasm is kept in check and I certainly have no interest in buying extra runs in this game. 4 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 2.67 Bet365 2 pts Miami Marlins (-3.5) to beat Atlanta Braves 5.75 Bet365 The Braves have stripped it down as part of a rebuild trading away anything people would take, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis are all productive pieces that have left in the offseason and have been replaced by players with questions to answer like Nick Markakis, ex Marlin Cameron Maybin and former White Sox AJ Pierzynski and Carlos Quentin. They will not be as potent at the plate as the team that folded tamely down the stretch last season and this Marlins team has some nice pieces on offense in particular Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yellich in the outfield. I am a big fan of Henderson Alvarez who will pitch tonight and he had an incredible record at home last season (7-2 1.60 ERA in 14 home starts) and I am happy to take a run line play against Julio Teheran who hasnt been great this spring and carries a 4.26 ERA in this ball park in 2 starts I may play some others but thats it for now
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Re: MLB Outright Betting 2015 Season This is the first season I havent bet on Giancarlo for most home runs. I really cant put anyone off I am sure he will hit the most at least once in his career but i have seen his price progressively shrink year on year and its shorter than I personally want to play. I think Seattle could well have a good year, so long as Felix continues at his level of play and doesnt do a Verlander (i have a few reasons to worry about that possibility) they should have just about enough offense and the pitching is good. Good luck with your bets!!
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The fun gets started tonight, lets hope for a successful season - stick your bets in here Good luck everyone :ok
MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
in MLB & Baseball Predictions
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Will update figures later as am at work. Being greedy would have loved anothe colorado run, being brutally honest was lucky to win a bean on that game as Matzek was AWFUL 12-18 total staked 86 pts total returns 88.70 pts profit +2.70 pts