The Scientist

Clarkey gives us Sleeping Lion in the 8.00 at Kempton. For the first time in my experience the excellent Daily Mirror red type and tipster teams are in total disagreement. Newsboy Sleeping Lion (Nap): Bouverie Rainbow Dreamer (Nap): Red Spot Earlofthecotswold: SF Earl of Tyrone: F Berkshire Rocco: EW Metier: leaving only Aced it and Solent Gateway friendless. Me ...eh? I will come to the party BERKSHIRE ROCCO.

my professional betting method was keep options open...leave a trail along the bookmakersline of 'my book' of fancies then bet late and bet big once I have seen the horses to the post. I seldom got it wrong. Sadly, ATR is an entertainment show not tailored for my needs. I decided "late betting moves" would have to be the substitute for my "eye". Just switched on ATR and gone nah nah nah...Blooming eck! That's a good un Ill back that horse to have some fun. 16-1 worth a small bet. then I saw the Godolphin fav1.and hedge on it. It looked good. Then I watched REGAL EMPIRE drift 18-1 20-1 22-1...I started to wonder if it had gone lame. At the track they can see CONTINUALLY. We at home are beholden to the ATR director . Regal Empire bolted home unchallenged....So I aak again. What are they LOOKING AT?. When a bookmaker asked me how I always won...I replied...what I can't understand is why any punter loses...What are they looking at? of course 99% of punters are not looking. They've pinned there colours to the mast. I am enjoying my retirement by doing the asbetting my fancy. Broctune Red 4.15 The Old Favourite ploy. A top jockey deliberately rides the horse into a whole heap of trouble to measure what it has in hand. As I overheard Lester Piggot mumble to connections 60 years ..."Next week, 7 furlong',Wolverhampton, 7 lb claimer...it'll win." BROCTUNE RED.....nap

If you have got a hang on your yard's cycle of life then taking advantage of it with non-triers is is deluding the punters or being realistic of the hard life of winning with handicapping horses The Andrew Brittain yard won the last two races easily at 8-1 and 10-1. Our ATR pundit noticed if also. The Jockey in their previous race had found every problem he could and brought the horse home 'on the bridle" buried. I bet Tathmeen late as a second choice to Stallone. none of this ..."oh dear I cant get a run" ..business last night. Tathmeen bullied other horses out of the way. There was a third Brittain horse...even more blatant in being given a "Not tonight Josephine" ride last week. Broctune Bay or Boy? Will he appear this week to give the yard a hat trick? Probably sensible approach.

is International Law really 25-1? ew.

My long time policy of last second bidding until I have seen every horse in saddling, parade, going to the post, behind the stalls is impossible at home watching ATR and thumbing at my mobile phone. My disaster in the Arc when I got so excited I keyed the wrong horse at the wrong price and wiped out a months profit. So it occured to me could this old dog learn a new trick. Select not the improver but the proven reliable older who always turns up and runs the same. Whatever its form figures are. Im looking now at STALLONE 8.30 Southwell. off this mark 56 the horse would have WON or come 2nd in its last 37,000 races (well 44). So why not tonight? My favourite horse Peachy Carnehan has never got a smell of the winning post off 55. Apache Star? Ill look at him as well

well the answer is clear Hollie Doyle is not 5lbs superior than Jonny Peate. In fact based on that text book ride (wow his whip craft timing was sensational) Hollie might soon be taking riding tips from Jonny. Ok all jockeys look good winning passing trees. We will see.

We are never going to be correct all the time. Backing horses is just like playing cards when the 'stick' 'twist' or 'fold' moment arrives. We have to ask if we are up for it or not?. A casino dealer at the big money tables always has a 'house player' to help him do the count. They are brilliant counters. At the 5.40 Newcastle is looks like a 'pin money' race so the odds dealer is working alone. 1/ Ladywantaway 3/1 2/ Furnicoe. 7/2 3/ The rest 4/1 but now comes the opinion moment. Ladywantaway is ridden by a 5 pound claimer J Peate who even his mother does not know. Furnicoe on the other hand ridden by Hollie Doyle. decision time nears

Funny old game 2YO . When Stenton Glider started slow, ran like an angry mule but eventually won by half the track it was hard not to mark her down as a Group 1 filly. The connections must have been ecstatic...1,000 Guineas, Oaks, Arc de Triomphe justifiably flashed before their eyes. Next race they could not get Stenton Glider within 20 yards of the starting stalls. In tonights 5.30 at Chelmsford they did get the first time winner Maharajas Express into the stalls but he downed tools quicker than NHS nurses. Still coasting when Jockey Tudhope seemed to stop riding with 2 furlongs to go. Still only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. The "Once Tried it- Did not Like it" syndrome strikes again. Two more cases for "Get Dawson"?

STENTON GLIDER : 6.00Kempton Hopeless , can't gallop,due to be expelled then comes to the race course and wins by half the track against all the posh girls from posh public schools without taking off her high heels, rucksack and spectacles. WIN BET. PERDIKA The teachers darling in the 5.30. Runs brilliantly. But will she keep doing it when she gets older and discovers boys? Who knows but no sign of it yet WIN BET

Thank you Sporting Sam, Kensland and MC Clarke for attempting to help us on a day I am pretty clueless. Well Divilskin an odds on fav is hard to crib. But I have just see an entrance to my way of thinking. I have stood next to Nicky Henderson when he has a mare at a "gaff track" and they do run okay. He supports his owners well. But if she was as good as the price Queens Rock would not be running in the 2.05 at Southwell for mares . He would love her to win but that is a good as she is showing. To my way of thinking IMPERIAL PRIDE with similar form at 7-1 is the ew bet plus MISTY MANI ew in 2.35 and an ew double.

Just switched on ATR and saw a weird 5.00 race at Wolves I am a believer in maths. For every length a horse gains on the second in the last 100 yards it is 1lb better than its forms shows. I've just watched no 6 from virtually a pull up move by the Jockey (whip in the wrong hand?) suddenly take off when the jockey put down the whip. He took seven lengths out of the strong galloping front two horses in the blink of a eye. I bet neither the stewards or ATR will ask the obvious question. Was it pulled?

Bad luck KNIGHT IN DUBAI. Went close.

Ive noted the tips in the jumps. I winced at 12.50 Knight in Dubai 5 points win from Villa Chris. 291 days since last win. Only a few days since watching Chris Woakes batting after 6 months off. Took 2 overs before he got his bat on the ball. Good luck to the bravehearts who put 5 points max on KNIGHT IN DUBAI Me Tenjin ew 7.00 Kempton

Most of us who have followed horseracing for 70 years have rarely seen the tragedy of a horse breaking a leg on the flat for no apparent reason It happens...we read about it. To have it happen in a race I am watching maybe 10 times in 70 years. For it to happen twice in a race is unknown. To happen twice to two of the three competing horses in the final 3 furlongs is beyond "accidental" bad luck. I am sorry but the runaway winner must alert the authorities. For me this is a police matter and warrants an investigation. The two mares must be subjected to an intense independent post mortem investigation. As well as drugs we have the possibility of the mares being shot from a hidden sniper nest. This could be an electronic or chemical bullet.

We have just seen Jojo O Neill on the horse HALF THE FREEDOM earn himself a suspension for excessive use of the whip. Well into double figures. It began a mile from home and the drum beats never stopped O"Neill knew he was on the laziest horse in training who seemed to only run for reminders. Horse was enjoying it as far as I could detect. Without the machine gun whipping the horse would have strolled home last. I hope the stewards take a lenient view. 2nd was the ride off the week!

Salt Lake City has gone to the post like the Manor Born. Looks like a physical big improve4 Had a little ew on him.

Well done tipsters....very brave. Anyone who witnessed the handicap race at Newbury yesterday with a field of well matched runners together at 2f pole. Accelerated and in a blink of an eye two horses were 17 lengths clear but there was a dramatic race for 3rd and 4th just as far clear. In softened,sticky ground one Stephen Gerrard slip when the speed picks up sends a shock wave loss of confidence in a horse. I suppose the jumpers are used to it. Me...boring but Chelmsford 7.00 Cooperation ew 8.00 Privilege ew

Ive just watched 3 races. The 2.35 at Newbury and the two maidens at Doncaster. All similar. Steady pace set by nervous jockeys fearing the sticky, softened ground. Every right to. The pace quickened at the 2f pole and and in a blink the eye the horses were spread out like the end off the Grand National. Congratulations to the winners and the placed horses but will they be ruined as future winners by the handicapper.? Or will the tailed off simply could not act in the going be thrown in on better ground. I see the last in the 2.20 was Krona 80-1. Well she seemed to be leading "on the bridle" at the 2f pole. All good looking fillies. In my experience the "last" usually ends up with a career winning total exceeding the winner in these false races after the handicapper has done his worst. My opinion of deserved marks at face value of the race. Krona (mark 62) v Soul Sister ( mark 91) is 0-1 in career wins now but which one wins the most in their full career?

Ive got my mojo back with personal betting after my Arc De Triomphe miss click. But let's see if my tipster mojo is better. I've done Windsor handicaps as my each way feeding ground. 2.25 Notre Maison (hunch Firenza Rose) 3.00 Wisper 3.35 By your side 4.10 Foden......not his soccer namesake. 4.45 Platinum Prince 5.15 Fortyshadesofsilver A bob ew the lot and a tanner eachway the acca. Other eachway longshots....I cant see any but Coronation Cottage at 12-1 in the 2.25 looks way overpriced. Gosh I have 3 fancies now in the 2.25....have fun.

Or...millions went to watch Seabiscuit and Phar Lap movies...I cried at both. But who is going to watch the movie of the Flat Track Bully horses Frankel and Baaeed who spent their careers outside the big three races. DERBY, KING GEORGE and the ARC. Scared stiff of playing away from home? Sorry but I recall Brigader Gerrard...take them all on. Camelot and Njinsky dying on their swords in the St. Leger.. These are hero horses.

I've been silent since my fat arthritic finger miss click just before the start of the Arc De Triomphe A three figure bet on a horse I did not fancy is a warning that my "latter the better and bigger " tactic comes with a health warning on mobile phones. Well hard work has recovered half the damage of that one mad moment. Brings me back to Ascot. Backing ew in races with long odds on winners is the best tactic in betting. A penalty kick to nothing. This media idea that everybody loves BAAEED and wants to see him win? Sorry but 90% of the crowd "including me" will betting and cheering for their outsider horse. A Derby winner ADAYAR v a Derby, Arc De Triomphe scaredy pants dodger BAAEED is enough for me to bet the Godolphin horse. But any of the others ew. I can make a case for . Especially ROYAL CHAMPION at 40-1 This is a 10f race on unforgiving ground. Its not your 8f "flat track bully" race that the Haggis horse built his reputation around.

Its the one race of the year that calls for and falls into the lap of Alf Tupper...the tough of the track. That's why we never saw Frankel That's why Baaeed is going to Ascot. The posh horses who never had to do an honest's days hard graft in their careers. First time beaten they are finished. By Gum....you are going to have to work your hooves off in the Arc de Triumph. Baaeed has never had to sweat in his career. Not a great starter...normally 6th. In the Arc that's 18th. Lets see how good you are NOW posh horse! Haggis and Cecil knew damn well. Frankel and Baaeed are not horses that "like it up em". Youmzain....the ultimate Alf Tupper..."tough of the track" was three times second in the Arc and only the weight beat him twice. Plenty more great fighters in the History of the Arc...but no posh kids. Unbeaten in a lucky career of beating up "bums" So is the O'Brien's Luxembourg a "posh kid"? I don't know. We will see. I like him. Injury...come back well. Got the makings. But 20 horses?....is he that good he can get a front 6 position early as his style needs...? Doubt it. 1st Vadeni 124 2nd Torquator Tasso 121 (singing 'You were made for ME) all the way 3rd Luxembourg... 4th some Japanese horse at 100-1 who has run on fast ground all his career only to discover he's a flying machine in Paris Bog.

My daring to try tipping at Newcastle after so many thumpings was respectable at 1a least. Aà Today I head brain to Redcar. Not Ascot, not Newmarket buy Redcar. The track where the sewer pipe appears out of The ground 4 furlongs out but shift to the middle until you've passed it and then return to the stand side... Nothing inspiring.3.57 Give it some Treddy each way. My best suggestion.

Newcastle 5.15 fortuitous star 5.45 wasdale 7 15 caragat 8.15 Triple Jaye Ew acca. All a bit short prices for me but good favourites

The publicity machine's in my view miss a trick. They pump out the champions retirement glorification articles and TV documentaries but does anybody care? Not me. And I don't believe anybody's favourite...unless they graduated with the punters through "the school of hard knocks" like Desert Orchid..We love them. But do we actually give a fig about the Frankels and the Baaeeds? I heard more cheering at Stratford in a race for last place when the magic riding of Richard Johnson made a large band of supporters happy by their horse finally beating ONE horse in his career. As a bookmaker I often never took a bet on course for the favourite...actually the HATED ONE the crowd have rolled up in hopes of seeing getting beaten. I might get one large bet from off course but nobody on course wanted it to win. I realise this when driving in Nottingham 60 miles from home at traffic lights a car pulled alongside the window came down and the driver screamed at be "Black and White ". My passengers were alarmed. I was for a moment then I "clicked " He was yelling out the name of my legendary greyhound. A fine greyhound but not my best... But what a crowd pleaser! A legend. The bookmakers would ask me to enter Black and White in all the big races as he had a massive fan club and win or lose would balance their books... ...so Stradivarius? Am I bothered?...not really... I am more interested in my carthorses. We love them. Matt Chapman who sneers at OUR horses but crawls backwards with his pants down worshiping THEIR horses is the public punters enemy. Enough....I have been doing so well with my betting I am braving up to try Newcastle tonight . Not a success story course for me But at least they are OUR horses. Not boring Ascot filled with THEIR horses.