Posts posted by MinellaWorksop
Slip Of The Tongue
On 3/18/2023 at 3:50 PM, harry_rag said:
Backed Lowe for a 1st half try at 4/1 with Lads.
Not sure it's as "super" a boost as the same offer was for Van der Merwe earlier but i still think it's just about been boosted into value territory.
So much for the Italy bets, though they definitely outran their odds. Time running out for a red card, 7/1 England standing between Ireland and the Grand Slam.
Well done with the red cards and grand slam bets mate.
Even the Italy bet was not far off throughout their 5 game campaign.
Plenty in contention on here going into the final round.
Spieth, W Clark, Riley for @Fader and @fd1972uk
And in T20 at 2 under par, Streelman at 200/1 for @Johnrobertson not without a chance of getting into the places and is certainly outplaying what his odds suggested before a ball was struck.
Good luck to all.
One True King
£20 Single please on
(1) Brentford 1.95
Nice start yesterday of +2.10pts on the favourites doubles.
Here are today's shortlist and scores based on the same formula as yesterday utilising @MCLARKE 's excellent research.
Impaire Et Passe 9-0 (9)
Hermes Allen 8-1 (7)
Gerri Colombe 5-0 (5)
Sir Gerhard 7-1 (6)
Run For Oscar 5-1 (4)
Camprond 4-4 (0)
Edwardstone 3-2 (1)
Energumene 5-3 (2)
Delta Work 0-4 (-4)
Galvin 0-3 (-3)
Dinoblue 6-2 (4)
Andy Dufresne 2-4 (-2)
A Dream To Share 6-0 (6)
Fact To File 6-1 (5)
From this the four I have chosen are:
Impaire Et Passe
A Dream To Share
Run For Oscar
Now let's enjoy the action unfold.
Thanks to @MCLARKE and his excellent trends articles. I have decided to pick four favourites each day and stick them in six £1 doubles.
I used an initial shortlist of the top two forecast horses in each race and rated them on Michael's trends of which out of the 14 points he mentions there were 9 positive points and 5 negative points here's how the shortlist scored. Final score in brackets
Facile Vega 7-2 (5)
Marine Nationale 6-1 (5)
Jonbon 8-0 (8)
El Fabiolo 5-0 (5)
Corach Rambler 2-3 (-1)
Into Overdrive 4-1 (3)
Constitution Hill 9-1 (8)
State Man 8-1 (7)
Marie's Rock 7-1 (6)
Honeysuckle 4-2 (2)
Tekao 5-1 (4)
Baker 5-2 (3)
Gaillard Du Mesnil 2-2 (0)
Mahler Mission 3-0 (3)
From this my four selections are:
Let's see how it plays out.
1.30 Doctor Bravo
2.10 Hollow Games
2.50 Cloudy Glen
4.10 Queens Brook
4.50 Samuel Spade
5.30 Mahler Mission
2 hours ago, Trotter said:
Anyone else a bit bored with hearing about Cheltenham before it even starts ?
Must say I avoid all mention of it on TV and radio, YouTube, all the podcasts and preview shows ........ I prefer not to think about it until tonight when I'll have a look at tomorrow's cards, as I do every day for all meetings
I'll watch the races OK ........ but just the races and I'll flick over or turn the telly off for half an hour between races. Again, something I do all the time anyway ..... I never watch the pre-race chat, the post-race chat, the in-between races chat, the interviews with trainers and jockeys have me scrambling for the mute button
To be fair I do the same with football ...... put the channel on only at kick off time, mute the sound during half time and turn over/off when the final whistle goes
I think I'm allergic to 'punditry' in all sport ......... just watch the action with your own eyes, you don't need someone else to tell you what you're about to watch or have just watched
You will have enjoyed this weekend's Match of the Day then! Lol
All joking aside, I actually agree with you on a lot what you say. And (i'm probably in the minority) enjoyed this weekend's MotD. Only thing they missed out on was not putting the lineups on before the highlights in my opinion.
Back to horse racing and I don't mind listening to the pre race chat, as I more view it from a comical viewpoint. Amount of times I hear contradictory statements from trainers, jockeys etc. is hilarious.
@LEE-GRAYS love Not So Sleepy. Proper warrior of a horse. Though if he doesn't get an uncontested lead it's going to be tough for thee old chap. I liked the horse 'For Pleasure' as well, I felt like he was on the Not So Sleepy Apprenticeship Scheme that was until connections decided to force a square peg into a round hole and persevere with running over fences. Ruined the horse's confidence and never been the same since.
2 hours ago, Fader said:
ah that's nice of everybody to throw it away and hand it on a plate to Scheffler. Woeful from Min there. Matusyama double bogey too. wow
be lucky to make the placings for Lee way he's playing now.
Got to feel for you with Min Woo Lee. This will be some tough lessons learnt for the young lad. After winning a decent strength field Scottish Open last year I had him down as coping better with the final round pressure than this.
The Little Yank
13 hours ago, Fader said:
I've never bet on a player and he withdrew, Do you get a void money back?
Me neither, though I'm pretty sure if he's already started playing (I.e. in this case he completed one round) it counts as a loss.
That said, with the high profile nature of the player involved, some bookmakers may give back the stakes to a certain amount as free bets maybe.
An intriguing one for sure.
13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
You are welcome.
It's not always clear cut though, those 2 points are definite negatives but there are others that are positives.
Type of race. It is best to follow his runners in Hurdle and NH Flat races, where his record is 37 wins from 345 runs with an AE of 1.11.
Backing his horses when they are forecast at 11/4 or shorter would produce 28 wins from 53 runs with a profit of 13 points and an AE of 1.24.
Horses with lots of winning from perform well. Those that have at least 5 wins from their last 10 runs have recorded 23 wins from 78 runs with a profit of 24 points and an AE of 1.22.
The beaten favourite one does stand out though so I don't think I'd be backing him, especially as he was so poor last time.
Yes, fair points made there. He (Facile Vega) basically has three points going for him and two against him depending on which stats we are looking at. So it's definitely wise to look at the whole picture.
I am in agreement with you about the beaten favourite angle. If Facile Vega hacks up I can let it be. However I would feel quite the buffoon if he finishes tailed off last after knowing these stats and I still went ahead and backed him knowing how bad the beaten favourites of Willie Mullins have performed at previous Cheltenham festivals.
It's all a game of opinions mind, so good luck to anyone who does decide to follow the Vega in the Supreme.
23 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
He has a poor record in races at the minimum distance of 2 miles with 12 wins from 98 runs, showing a loss of 28 points and an AE of 0.83
Ignore his horses that were beaten favourite last time out. Of 62 runners only 2 have won with a loss of 44 points and an AE of 0.43.
These two points are really interesting and stood out for me. Especially considering Facile Vega's chances in the Festival opener. Be fascinating to see how it plays out.
These articles are superb Michael. Thoroughly enjoying them and are much appreciated.
Naps - Tuesday 21st March
in NAP of the Day Competition