York Carrsi

Needham Market are at home to my side Bromsgrove Sporting. We lost 2-1 last Saturday at home to perennial strugglers St Ives which doesn't bode well although it's still very early days. It was a poor game tbh,not much quality.
Needham are 10-11 which is worth a small bet imo
 
 

National League This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.   Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.   I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.   The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.   Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.   I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.   Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs.    I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.   Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.   There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.   The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.   Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365 Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only) York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Banbury the first team to get over the line. Total stakes were 31.5 and they have returned 12pts

It is Non-League Day on Saturday and hopefully it can be a profitable one for us.   National League treble Although Stockport surprisingly went 2 down against Wealdstone last Saturday the fact they still ended up winning the game 4-2 spoke volumes about how strong they are. Amazingly they even felt the need to strengthen on Thursday ahead of the transfer window closing. They travel to an Eastleigh side who are continue to struggle and didn't even have a shot on target on Tuesday night in the defeat against Dagenham. Weymouth are doomed to relegation and they look in shocking shape at the moment. They are conceding plenty of goals and Torquay really ought to get another 3 points. Finally Wrexham look in cracking shape right now and as much as I can't see them catching Stockport they should finish 2nd. I can see them scoring a few past Dover but will stick the -1 handicap in the treble.   Guiseley v Chester I was very keen to oppose Guiseley on Tuesday night and apart from missing a penalty they created very little against Telford. Sadly for us Telford couldn't muster a shot on target despite threatening more than their hosts. Chester were very unfortunate to draw at Gloucester on Tuesday night as they dominated the game yet Gloucester somehow got an injury time equalizer. Chester are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and I think they will have too much for a Guiseley side who are looking like they might be the ones to go down from the National League North this season.   Chelmsford v Hungerford Neither side come into this game in great form with the home side losing 6 on the bounce and the away side 4. Things aren't right at Chelmsford at the moment though with the fans unhappy with what is going off the pitch. They are in big danger of being the team to be relegated from the division this season. Hungerford have conceded 14 goals in those 4 loses, but then Chelmsford have only scored 3 times in their 6 defeats so their defence might be able to hold out. Hungerford have been scoring goals though and of course they pushed our bets Eastbourne close last Saturday. I just don't think there is as much between the two sides as the betting suggests so the away side are worth a bet.   Slough v Braintree Braintree continue to be one of the form sides in the division and only Maidstone (twice) and Dulwich have beaten them in their last 10 league games. They are also the only side to have beaten Slough in their last 7 league games and I think they look value to do the same again here. I know Slough have only lost that one game in 7, but they haven't been massively convincing in their performances and again these two teams should be closer together in the betting.   Stockport/Torquay/Wrexham -1 2pts treble @ 1.94/1 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Chester 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to Evs) Hungerford 1pt @ 13/5 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 13/8) Braintree 1pt @ 3/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 2/1)

It is time for the yearly SBC (Secret Betting Club) awards and for the first time Punters Lounge have been named in the favourite betting website award. It's going to be hard for us to win, but it would be great to get as high as possible as it would certainly help in getting the name of Punters Lounge out to even more people.
https://smartbettingclub.com/2022awards/

Swings and roundabouts. I remember a sort of similar season four years ago then you blew the tips out of the water on the final day.
Anyway, I follow tipsters form, and you are due a massive upswing imminently. Don't stop tipping FFS because you're likely to hit gold next load of tips or the ones after. 

I'm just having an awful season match betting wise. Not given up hope of turning a profit yet, but its been one of the toughest season's I have had.

Thanks @Darran.

Being a follower of non league in the north I would back your calls on both Blyth and Grantham.  Earlier in the week they opened at 14/5 and 11/4, respectively.  

Staggering that Chester opened at 8/11 given their recent form and their abysmal away form over the season.  They are a young side with a few injuries at the moment and the bounce they gained when ex York City boss Steve Watson took charge has long since disappeared.  Blyth were unlucky to lose at Darlington last weekend and have added a couple of signings to their squad this week.  Unsurprisingly their odds have dropped significantly to 21/10, but I still see this as a 50/50 call with both teams around 6/4.

Just one more stat to add to Darran's  Bamber Bridge v Grantham write up;  Last 6 games Bamber GF 1 GA 13, Grantham GF 13 GA 12.  Plenty of goals in Grantham at the moment, especially if ex Dover player Ricky Miller starts today.

Thanks @Darran.

Being a follower of non league in the north I would back your calls on both Blyth and Grantham.  Earlier in the week they opened at 14/5 and 11/4, respectively.  

Staggering that Chester opened at 8/11 given their recent form and their abysmal away form over the season.  They are a young side with a few injuries at the moment and the bounce they gained when ex York City boss Steve Watson took charge has long since disappeared.  Blyth were unlucky to lose at Darlington last weekend and have added a couple of signings to their squad this week.  Unsurprisingly their odds have dropped significantly to 21/10, but I still see this as a 50/50 call with both teams around 6/4.

Just one more stat to add to Darran's  Bamber Bridge v Grantham write up;  Last 6 games Bamber GF 1 GA 13, Grantham GF 13 GA 12.  Plenty of goals in Grantham at the moment, especially if ex Dover player Ricky Miller starts today.

Thanks @Darran.

Being a follower of non league in the north I would back your calls on both Blyth and Grantham.  Earlier in the week they opened at 14/5 and 11/4, respectively.  

Staggering that Chester opened at 8/11 given their recent form and their abysmal away form over the season.  They are a young side with a few injuries at the moment and the bounce they gained when ex York City boss Steve Watson took charge has long since disappeared.  Blyth were unlucky to lose at Darlington last weekend and have added a couple of signings to their squad this week.  Unsurprisingly their odds have dropped significantly to 21/10, but I still see this as a 50/50 call with both teams around 6/4.

Just one more stat to add to Darran's  Bamber Bridge v Grantham write up;  Last 6 games Bamber GF 1 GA 13, Grantham GF 13 GA 12.  Plenty of goals in Grantham at the moment, especially if ex Dover player Ricky Miller starts today.

Spot on with York City @Darran.  The one ray of sunshine for them is that Akil Wright is back today, but we failed to muster a single shot on target against BPA.  Add in Macauley Langstaff coming back to haunt his former team and Gateshead look good value.  I've put them in a double with Yorkshire Amateurs.  Amateurs are away at Frickley and although they have only won twice away all season one of them was at Shildon on Tuesday.  Plus they have just signed Nathan Cartman.  He was playing and scoring regularly for Scarborough in the Northern Premier League but wanted to move to a team nearer to his home base.  He's far too good for this level and should enjoy a visit to 3rd bottom Frickley.
Sorry, should have said Frickley v Yorkshire Amateurs is an NPL East fixture available on Bet365.
 

York City v Chorley
Just putting this one up quite early as the price on Chorley has already shortened from 13/5 to 15/8.  Now, whilst Chorley are not amazing on the road, equally York are pretty ordinary everywhere at the moment.  The club is in disarray and the manager came out after they were comfortably outplayed by Gateshead on Tuesday and said that recruits are the only thing that will solve York's problems.  To date it doesn't appear as though that will happen in time for Saturday.  He also said booing from the fans will not help their cause. 
With ticket prices cut for Saturday there could be a large crowd but that is likely to be counter productive for City as the fans are getting very vocal in their displeasure at the level of performances they have seen this season and do not respond too well to being cajoled by the manager.
11th v 3rd, and the only reason York started as odds on favourites is their 'name'.  Hereford and Kettering have already beaten City at home and 3 goals in the last 7 games isn't going to reduce the anxiety levels.  I see this as 6/4 for both teams at best so I think there is still some value in taking Chorley.

Barnet v Aldershot (Live on BT Sport) Barnet were played off the park by Wrexham last Saturday and then went and beat Stockport on Tuesday night whilst Wrexham lost to Maidenhead. Proof that football will always throw up seemingly random results. That was Barnet's worse performance since Dean Brennan took over as manager though and I think it was just unfortunate it came against a Wrexham side who were at their best. I think they have a decent chance of beating an Aldershot side who are struggling for wins even if they do seem to be improving. They were heavily backed to beat Weymouth on Tuesday night and although the price ended up way too short I could see why people thought they would win as the Weymouth manager complained about how tired his players were after the draw against Wealdstone last Saturday. For Aldershot to fail to score against them wasn't great and their xG was low as well. What I will say is they have lost all 6 home league games now and they have performed better away from home, but even so there is no way they should be favourites for this game and Barnet are a massive price.   Weymouth v Kings Lynn Although Weymouth have only won once at home against Maidenhead their 2 defeats came against Boreham Wood and Stockport and they have managed a draw against Notts County as well. I mentioned above that they were looking tired last Saturday, but they rested some key players on Tuesday night so they were able to freshen some players up whilst also managing to win. I think they should be slightly shorter in the betting here. Amazingly Kings Lynn have had more possession in 10 of their 12 league games, but their problem is they often don't have enough quality in the final 3rd to take advantage of seeing so much of the ball. They had nearly 70% of the ball against Boreham Wood on Tuesday night yet could only manage an xG of 0.9 compared to Wood's 1.79 and they lost 1-0. Only 3 times this season has their xG been higher than their opponents and that for me puts things in Weymouth's favour here.   Hungerford v Maidstone (National League South) Just the one bet at Step 2 this weekend and I think the home side are overpriced here. I put Maidstone up last week and they lost 2-0 to Dorking and after a 0-0 draw at Dulwich on Tuesday night that meant they haven't scored in their last 3 league games now. You just get the sense they are in a bit of a sticky patch and this will be a tough game. Hungerford were having a cracking season last time around and they have been able to pretty much carry that into this one as well. 3 of their 4 league wins have come against the weaker sides in the league, but they have beaten Dorking and drew against Havant on Tuesday night. At home I just can't make them anywhere near as big as they are to win this and look fair value.   Barnet 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 11/10) Weymouth 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/4) Hungerford 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

Whitby Town v Scarborough Athletic

Scarborough are priced up at 12/5 for this match, probably based on an inconsistent run of results, but there is very little between the teams in terms of ability.  Apart from a 6-0 mauling at FC United, Scarborough have been excellent away from home this season - P5 W4 L1 F6 A1.  It is their home form that has let them down.  Whitby on the other hand are in a bit of a slump.  They have lost their last 2 home games and the goals have dried up.  Jacob Hazel has stopped scoring for Whitby and at the same time Nathan Cartman has started notching for Scarborough.  Boro also have the added boost of the return of their talismanic captain, Michael Coulson.

This has the makings of a tight game but Boro will have plenty of support for this local derby and look very good value at 12/5

Northern Premier League Division One East

Dunston v Yorkshire Amateur
Step 4 is a minefield but the bookies generally price up purely on league positions.  These teams are currently fifth and tenth respectively so look evenly matched.  The odds reflect this with Dunston @ 6/5 and Yorkshire Amateur @ 6/4.
For me the current form of Dunston and home advantage should have them odds on.  5 straight wins, including a 1-0 win at Workington in the FA Trophy.  3 of their 4 league defeats have been against teams above them in the league.  In contrast Amateur do not travel particularly well.  Aside from an FA Trophy win at a weak Kendal side last weekend they have not won on the road since the opening day of the season.  They've also shipped 4 goals on their 2 previous visits to the North East this season.
The ex Northern League sides now playing in the Northern Premier League are tough to beat on their own patch and Dunston are no exception.  3 West Yorkshire teams have already visited this season and come back with zero points and 12 goals conceded.
 

Northern Premier League Division One East

Dunston v Yorkshire Amateur
Step 4 is a minefield but the bookies generally price up purely on league positions.  These teams are currently fifth and tenth respectively so look evenly matched.  The odds reflect this with Dunston @ 6/5 and Yorkshire Amateur @ 6/4.
For me the current form of Dunston and home advantage should have them odds on.  5 straight wins, including a 1-0 win at Workington in the FA Trophy.  3 of their 4 league defeats have been against teams above them in the league.  In contrast Amateur do not travel particularly well.  Aside from an FA Trophy win at a weak Kendal side last weekend they have not won on the road since the opening day of the season.  They've also shipped 4 goals on their 2 previous visits to the North East this season.
The ex Northern League sides now playing in the Northern Premier League are tough to beat on their own patch and Dunston are no exception.  3 West Yorkshire teams have already visited this season and come back with zero points and 12 goals conceded.
 

@Teodore plenty of big prices on offer to choose from.  I'm not betting on the FA Cup today but you might want to look at Buxton @ 2/1 at Kettering.  The home team struggled to see off Spalding in the 3rd qualifying round and Buxton have hit 16 goals in the last 4 matches.
I would also look at opposing my local team, York City.  The 3-1 scoreline against bottom club Southport flattered them last weekend and the home fans are quick to jump on the teams back when things start to go wrong.  Morpeth are @ 11/2 to beat them.
Also, Guiseley @ 4/1 at fellow National League North rivals Brackley and Banbury @ 2/1 at home to Bath City.
I haven't researched any of these but are worth considering.

Whitby Town v Scarborough Athletic

Scarborough are priced up at 12/5 for this match, probably based on an inconsistent run of results, but there is very little between the teams in terms of ability.  Apart from a 6-0 mauling at FC United, Scarborough have been excellent away from home this season - P5 W4 L1 F6 A1.  It is their home form that has let them down.  Whitby on the other hand are in a bit of a slump.  They have lost their last 2 home games and the goals have dried up.  Jacob Hazel has stopped scoring for Whitby and at the same time Nathan Cartman has started notching for Scarborough.  Boro also have the added boost of the return of their talismanic captain, Michael Coulson.

This has the makings of a tight game but Boro will have plenty of support for this local derby and look very good value at 12/5

Whitby Town v Scarborough Athletic

Scarborough are priced up at 12/5 for this match, probably based on an inconsistent run of results, but there is very little between the teams in terms of ability.  Apart from a 6-0 mauling at FC United, Scarborough have been excellent away from home this season - P5 W4 L1 F6 A1.  It is their home form that has let them down.  Whitby on the other hand are in a bit of a slump.  They have lost their last 2 home games and the goals have dried up.  Jacob Hazel has stopped scoring for Whitby and at the same time Nathan Cartman has started notching for Scarborough.  Boro also have the added boost of the return of their talismanic captain, Michael Coulson.

This has the makings of a tight game but Boro will have plenty of support for this local derby and look very good value at 12/5

Whitby Town v Scarborough Athletic

Scarborough are priced up at 12/5 for this match, probably based on an inconsistent run of results, but there is very little between the teams in terms of ability.  Apart from a 6-0 mauling at FC United, Scarborough have been excellent away from home this season - P5 W4 L1 F6 A1.  It is their home form that has let them down.  Whitby on the other hand are in a bit of a slump.  They have lost their last 2 home games and the goals have dried up.  Jacob Hazel has stopped scoring for Whitby and at the same time Nathan Cartman has started notching for Scarborough.  Boro also have the added boost of the return of their talismanic captain, Michael Coulson.

This has the makings of a tight game but Boro will have plenty of support for this local derby and look very good value at 12/5