In Play Race Reader
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Just now, In Play Race Reader said:
It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.
Sectional SpotlightSectional Spotlight Blog Archive
More blog postsDubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
Other Blogs
More BlogsHollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Thought this was interesting by Simon Rowlands
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It is a good time to look back and take stock, including of one aspect of all-weather racing which tends to be misrepresented. That is the nature of the surfaces on which the horses race, and in particular those surfaces’ speeds as inferred from the times recorded on them.
It is a myth that the speeds of all-weather surfaces do not vary, though they do avoid the real extremes that sometimes occur on turf.
That has not stopped every last all-weather fixture run so far this year from being described officially as “standard ” at Chelmsford, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton, and all 18 meetings in that time at Kempton from being described as “standard to slow”.
Time analysis paints a different picture of regular variations in implied surface speeds, some of them far from negligible.
A going allowance can be calculated which reflects the ability a horse would have to show to equal standard time, carrying weight-for-age in a well-run race, with lower indicating quicker conditions and higher the opposite.
This is how they look, summarised for all meetings in January to March inclusive in 2024. Where different time-based going allowances existed on the same card (such as following in-card track maintenance), the figure for the first race has been used.
Overall, there is agreement between time-based going allowances and official going descriptions 58.9% of the time, which leaves nearly half that are inaccurate as judged by such means. Wolverhampton easily leads the way in being “correct” 83.3% of the time.
Another way of looking at the data is to consider the maximum and minimum going allowances at each course, the range (the difference between maximum and minimum), and the standard deviation (which is a traditional measure of variance).
Wolverhampton and Lingfield perform best in terms of narrowness of range and lowness of standard deviation. They could arguably justify their unswervingly uniform approach to going description - the other courses less so.
As an illustration, a range of 50lb is equivalent to the difference between “good to soft” and “good to firm, tending to firm” on turf, or the difference between Frankel running a given time and a 90-rated handicapper doing the same.
Newcastle is a rather tricky case, in which wind sometimes plays a major part on its straight mile, which I have allowed for as much as possible. Unfortunately, British racing has ignored requests to record wind speed and direction as a matter of course as races are run, and nor does it publicise significant in-card track maintenance.
Even if you treat Newcastle as an outlier, 35% of other cards seem to have been miscategorised. Incidentally, the going allowance there on All-Weather Finals Day was 93 on my figures, or just about slap bang in the middle of “standard”, as described.
Either way, you can be sure that track conditions vary a good deal more than the official version would have you believe, and this has implications for speed, stamina, sectionals, race-positioning, distance betting, handicapping, times, in-play betting, and more besides.
Perhaps British racing will one day acknowledge that these things matter to those who bet on the sport and thereby help to keep the show on the road. But I won’t be holding my breath.
Sectional SpotlightSectional Spotlight Blog Archive
More blog postsDubai World Cup and all-weather surfaces
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
The Flat is back!
Tuesday, 26th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day three & day four review
Saturday, 16th March 2024
Cheltenham 2024: Day one & day two review
Thursday, 14th March 2024
Dublin Racing Festival reflections
Tuesday, 6th February 2024
Shake up in Supreme and Ryanair markets
Tuesday, 16th January 2024
The Road to Cheltenham
Tuesday, 9th January 2024
Festive round-up
Wednesday, 3rd January 2024
Other Blogs
More BlogsHollie Doyle
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Hong Kong Diary
Thursday, 4th April 2024
Sectional Spotlight
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Kevin Blake
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Eyecatchers
Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
Surfing The Sand
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Betfair Ambassadors
Saturday, 30th March 2024
Saturday Horses to Follow: Doncaster
Friday, 22nd March 2024
Jamie Lynch
Thursday, 21st March 2024
Declan Rix
Thursday, 21st March 2024
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
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12 minutes ago, Trotter said:
The Racing Post speed rating for that recent win was 87 ..... which seems a lot more reasonable than 123 !
Yes ,I think I rated it about 78 ,,which is decent mid-top handicapper on my scale ,,but Raceform do often go big at Newcastle,,used to always be big on Southwell’s old surface
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IMO Newcastle is a bit of an anomaly as regards Speed Ratings as most races are run at a crawl early then sprint finish especially on the round course ,if your using all races to get your going allowance there’s going to be some difficulty ,,I know raceforms SR’s for Newcastle are always out of sync,,Cover up recently won off 83 and was rated 123 ,which is par with Group 1 ,,I use race par finishes to find out which races have been close to truly run
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14:00 Lingfield—Plantadream 20/1 B365 Each-Way
14:35 Lingfield—Bergerac 8/1 B365 Each-Way
15:10 Lingfield—Miss Bluebelle 13/2 B365 Each-Way
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18:00 Wolverhampton—
Miss Bluebelle 7/2 William Hill
Visibility 16/1 Bet Victor Each-Way
Ernie’s Valentine 13/2 William Hill Each-Way
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19:00 Southwell—Starshiba 22/1 B365 Each-Way
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18:30 Wolverhampton—Chantico 8/1 PaddyPower
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18:45 Kempton—Top Secret 3/1 B365
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18:45 Kempton
Top secret 3/1 B365
Talis Evolvere 13/2 B365 EW
Crystal Casque 16/1 B365 EW
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Anybody recommend any decent podcasts,,just coming to the end of Business Of Betting ,,Interested in anything betting or trading related 👍
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17:10 Newcastle—Young Fire 16/1 PaddyPower
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19:00 Kempton—Ippotheos 5/1 B365
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18:30 Wolverhampton—Alreet Cha 4/1 B365
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17:15 Newcastle—Tacarib Bay 14/1 PaddyPower
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15:24 Lingfield—Boom The Groom 22/1 PaddyPower
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19:15 Wolverhampton—Big Dutchie 40/1 B365 Each-Way
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18:30 Southwell—Honour Your Dreams 16/1 B365
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17:30 Newcastle—Scottish Summit 10/1 B365
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16:35 Wolverhampton—Civil Law 3/1 PaddyPower
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13:25 Lingfield—Measured Moments 10/3 Bet365
HORSE RACING VARIABLES
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I would have pace of race as my number one,past form and potential pace for todays race