marzipan

As far as indoor courts are concerned, it's certainly on the slower side. Cressy did really well to beat Diego yesterday, the final break was super sweet, even. That's the only match I watched, though, and the ball seemed to be bouncing quite low in that one, so pretty much ideal for Cressy. For that reason, I'll be on Evans to beat Nakashima at 1.91 with William Hill today. The form book also checks out in favor of Evans, really.

I like Bonzi to beat Humbert at 4/6 typically. I don't really rate Humbert, he's a decent Challenger level player but has been very underwhelming at ATP level, whilst Bonzi has been playing solidly on the ATP tour and ran Van de Zanschulp very close in Cincinnati a few days ago. Also has an extra day's rest over Humbert.

Van de Zandschulp B. to beat Kecmanovic M. @1.75 (local bookie Soccerbet)

Close match is expected,but i feel that Dutchman will have a upper hand here. His game is more solid in this moment..Kecmanovic has too many ups and downs in his tennis..they both won tough matches in last round,but i value Botic's victory ( vs FAA) more..

So 8 men's an 8 ladies matches today at Indian wells.
4 low priced favorites in the men's. Difficult to go against Berrettini and Taylor Fritz. Both match up well against their opponents. Lloyd Harris has been playing poorly, and Jaume Munar is just overmatched against Fritz. The American also plays very well at home. Rublev and Hurkacz will find the going more difficult. Tiafoe always underrated, and the slow court will not suite Hurkacz.  I think the van de Zandschulp v Kecmanovic game could go either way. Will be close. The over 22.5 games looks decent (1.8) and could even win in two close sets. I think that a little more experience helps van de Zandschulp just get through this , and the van de Zandschulp win and over 22.5 games is priced at 3.25.
 
For me crazy that Cirstea is 4.33 to beat Halep. I just don't rate Halep's game at all. So many neutral balls, hit down the middle, straight to the opponent. It is such passive tennis. Cirstea probably one of the most in form players at the moment has a decent chance here. This looks like a breakout year for her. Just climb in and attack that weak 2nd serve from Halep.
At some stage Swiatek is gonna start fast and demolish somebody. In every match so far she has won in 3 sets, losing the 1st one. Kerber could be on the wrong side of a beating here.
Badosa has fantastic groundstrokes, but until she gets that serve working really well, and up's the consistency she will struggle against very good players. Fernandez  will give her plenty of problems with the left handed serve, and one strike tennis. Would be going for Fernandez here, again in a 3 setter. Fernandez to win and over 22.5 games is priced at 5.5 (bet365) and it looks good to me.
 
1) Will take a small bet double of Frenandez and van de Zandschulp which works out around 17-1.
2) Maybe a double on Berrettini and Fritz to win what I stake in the above bet.
3) A double on Sakkari and Rybakina again to win what I stake on bet 1)
Singles on Vondrousova, Cirstea, van de Zandschulp (+22.5 and win) 
 
 
 
 
 

I have 1 main bet today. It is three legs but returns 2.4 to 1. 
First match is Konteveit v Mertens.  For me this is actually a no-contest. Konteveit probably the hottest player in woman's tennis at the moment. Hitting the ball with power and purpose. A price here of 1.4 is a gift, because she should be about 1.2 . Mertens not playing particularly well, and just got over the line against Paolini (who served for the match in the 3rd set).
Second match is Djokovic v Khachanov. Djoko looks sharp, and it is a perfect style matchup for him. Would be taking Djoko on the -4.5 handicap at 1.72. Just can't see him losing his serve, and the game styles are very similar. Djoko just does things on the court at a higher level.
Third match is Sabalenka v Tiechmann. Again for me a no contest. I don't even care how bad Sabalenka serves ... she has too much power off the ground, and she is hitting it really well. I watched her match against Kostyk, and I think this one is similar. Quite a few serve breaks but Tiechmann gets overpowered here.
Could take the same bet but instead take Sabalenka -3.5 (also at 1.72). The odds for Konteveit, Djoko (-4.5), Sabalenka (-3,5) work out around (1.4*1.72*1.72)-1 = 3.14. Slightly riskier and not worth it in my opinion.
 

SO Thursday and weekend tennis coming up.
The problem with this stage of tournaments is that the majority of the time, the competition is close. A lower ranked player that gets to this stage has pulled off a win or two, and is playing above his expected level. It is far easier to find miss matches in the early rounds.
5 really tricky matches in Rotterdam.
van de Zandschulp at home should have an advantage but Lehecka played really well against Zverev. Held his nerve and finished the job. For me a very close matchup that probably goes 3 long sets (serve dominated). 
I think Tsitsipas could be in trouble with Ivashka. For me Ivashka very talented, but not focused. He throws away matches that he could win. But definitely a streaky dangerous opponent. In Tsitsipas, I don't really see improvements in his game. This years version looks like last years. He looks physically stronger, but that 1 handed backhand is a weakness. 
Griekspoor and Fucsovics both won in 3 sets , losing the 1st set. Griekspoor got a little lucky, because Karatsev played really badly at critical stages. 6-2 down first set with Karatsev serving for the match in the second. Russian goes to pieces. 3rd set Karatsev broke him 3 times, and still couldn't serve it out at 5-4 (again). Karatsev completely freaked out and smashed a racquet to bits, not recovering in the breaker (7-0 down). For me, Karatsev seems to have a problem when he has to generate pace. WHen he plays someone who hits it hard, he is far more comfortable.
Fucsovics definitely got better as his match went on, and I would give him the edge in this match.
 
Pick of the round is Murray v Aliassime. Man does Aliassime look to be in great shape. Very strong, lean with almost zero body fat, youth and no injuries. Physically he has been working out HARD! My only concern is while the physicality has come on leaps and bounds, he is strategically still trying to figure out his best game. Murray may not have all the bases covered (re injury, youth etc), but he knows his own game inside out, and knows what he needs to do to win here. Very close match  here, and I am siding with Murray. He knows what he needs to do to get back near the top, and it starts with a win today.
In the WTA ST. Petersburg (Thurs)
Only low odds fav my software likes is Ostapenko to beat Petkovic. The other 3 matches inconclusive.  Would be going with Kvitova who's serve seems to have made a comeback. She has a very solid 1st strike game behind it. Rybakina should win, but the Sasnovich v Cristian game could go either way,

Karen Khachanov to beat (-1.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.09 with Pinnacle
Khachanov was so good in his last match. He won 23 points in his 24 first serve and had very few unforced error. I don't trust Basili mentally. I believe that Russian will beat his opponent again without dropping a set.
 
Good luck everyone

Karen Khachanov to beat (-1.5 sets) Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.09 with Pinnacle
Khachanov was so good in his last match. He won 23 points in his 24 first serve and had very few unforced error. I don't trust Basili mentally. I believe that Russian will beat his opponent again without dropping a set.
 
Good luck everyone

Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle
Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle
I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep.  Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5) to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle
Fully agree with @darko08. 

Shapovalov vs Karatsev
Anyone know why Shapovalov is favourite here? He didn’t look good in San Diego against Fritz and especially Norrie, and had a walkover against Pospisil. 
 
Karatsev’s been hitting the ball well recently and I feel he should be slight favourite against an out of sort Shapo.
Karatsev @ 2.15

Jessica Pegula to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle
It was a push on the Sasnovich handicap, but I'm happy to oppose Azarenka again. Pegula has looked much better than her so far in the tournament and even this year. And she has a serve, unlike Sasnovich.

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Danielle Collins at 1.50 with Pinnacle
I saw both in the previous round and I liked Sabalenka more. Collins has a game plan built around attacking weak second serves etc., but Sabalenka won't provide her with many of those like Juvan did. The H2H record suggests as much and, in what's a contest of two ball-bashers, I'm happy to pick the more complex and stronger one.

Bautista-Agut to beat Ruusuvuori @ ~1.50
Even if the odds are not very big, I still find them pretty good for the quality of Bautista-Agut. For me, the spaniard is 1 level higher than Ruusuvuori, even if the latest has some wins in his pocket lately. Expecting 3:0 or 3:1 in favor of RBA.

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Emil Ruusuvori at 1.54 with Pinnacle
Agreed with @vvararu here, RBA should be way too big a mountain to climb in the longer format. I'd find these odds alright in best-of-three, but he'll outlast Ruusuvori more often than not as well if it comes to that.

Won
Won
Won
Won. Pouille was serving to win the match 3-1 but he choked. Ramos played better but he wasted 13 BPs (6-19) while Pouille converted almost every single one he had (3-7)
Void. Brady retired due to her foot injury. Raducanu has beat Voegele (LL) in 2 sets.
Really happy to announce that I have won my last 10 bets here (10/10 in the last 2 weeks!)
This one still alive (I'm very optimistic about this one). The odds have dropped. Cilic/Fokina/Isner out.
If I find some bets that I like I will post them.

Well, here we are with the final Grand Slam of the season. As always, best of luck to everyone who places a bet!
Naomi Osaka NOT to reach Finals at 1.25 with Bet365
Straight away, I know that I want to oppose Osaka at a good price. She's so unreliable and the pressure will be at its finest, so I'm going to invest a bet to find out if she can overcome it. I know the odds are short, but I played something similar one GS back and was happy with how it went.
Denis Shapovalov NOT to reach 4th round at 1.80 with Bet365
Shapovalov has been very inconsistent lately and the longer format works against him in this respect as well. He doesn't have a particularly tough draw, but it's himself who's his biggest enemy. When he's misfiring, he can lose against the Koprivas out there and this is another level.
For match bets, I already know I want these:
Fabio Fognini to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.72 with Pinnacle
This is more about going against Pospisil, though Fognini hasn't done much wrong lately. Folding against Moutet on a hard court is pretty awful, I've seen Corentin plenty of times in this season and there wasn't a single good match among those.
Thiago Monteiro (+2.5 sets) to beat Daniel Evans at 1.67 with Pinnacle
Just another bet against EVO, as usual.
Angelique Kerber (-1.5 sets) to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.76 with Unibet
I saw a bit of Yastremska and she doesn't seem to be fully back. I imagine she took a lengthy break before her fate was known and this is a tough challenge to beat so early after coming back. Kerber has been on the up, though, a second wind of sorts. I'm not sure she has what it takes to go far, but some of her recent results were very impressive.
 

Well, this is all I have for the first 2 days of the USO. If it goes well I will keep posting bets.
Outrights:
Medvedev to Reach the SF - Yes at 1.61 with bet365
Gasquet (1R) - Koepfer/Qualifier (2R) - Cilic (3R) - Evans/Giron/Popyrin/Dimitrov (4R) - Ruud/Schwartzmann/Fokina/Isner (QF)
If nothing strange happens Medvedev should reach the SFs. Cilic is miles away from his best form. Both Evans and Dimitrov are not in a good form either. Ruud is playing good but the way he was destroyed by Tsitsipas in Toronto (6-1, 6-4) and by Sascha in Cincinnati (6-1, 6-3) says me that he has no options against Medvedev. Isner shouldn't be a threat either. He had physical problems while he was playing in Cincinnati and Medvedev already destroyed him in Toronto (6-2, 6-2) just 2 weeks ago.
Matches:
Kevin Anderson (vs. Vesely) + Bublik (vs. Hanfmann) at 1.74 with betfair
Neither Vesely nor Hanfmann has prepared for the US Open. Hanfmann has not played a single match since he played in Bastad (on clay), 1 month ago. Vesely hasn't played this month, either. The last time he played a match was in Kitzbuhel (on clay). Kevin won the ATP Newport (on grass) in July and he has spent all this month preparing for the USO. He played in Atlanta, Washington and Cincinnati (2-3). He lost against Kyrgios, Brooksby and Khachanov, and he beat Musetti and Johnson. A couple of days ago he said that his goal is to win the tournament. Well..., I expect him to win at least this 1st round match. Bublik played in Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem (2-4). He lost against Nishikori, Medvedev, Dimitrov and Ruusuvuori, and he beat Evans and Giron.
McDonald (vs. Goffin) + Opelka (vs Kwon) at 2.15 with William Hill
McDonald has had a good year (38-20). He has played a lot of tournaments on american soil in order to prepare the USO. In Washington, he reached the Final. He beat Kyrgios, Paire, Ivashka, Kudla and Nishikori. He finally lost against Sinner but he was close to win (7-5, 4-6, 7-5). Goffin has lost the last 5 matches he has played (Delbonis, Bedene, Musetti, Moutet and Pella). He has suffered a lot of injuries during the last months. In Halle, he had to retire due to an ankle injury. He returned after 2 months but he was destroyed by Pella (6-3, 6-3) in his first match in Cincinnati. He was supposed to play in Winston-Salem but he finally didn't due to a knee injury. I don't like to bet on players as Opelka, Isner, etc, cause their matches have a lot of TBs. That being said, I think he should beat Kwon. Opelka reached the Final in Toronto and he beat good players (Kyrgios, Dimitrov, Harris, Bautista and Tsitsipas). Kwon lost easily against Paul (6-3, 6-2) in Cincinnati and then he lost in a 3 set match against PCB, before beating Albot in 2 sets in Winston-Salem. These players met in Delray Beach the last year and Opelka beat him easily (6-3, 6-4).
Ramos to beat Pouille at 1.66 with bet365
Pouille has had a really bad year (10-17). Before playing in Winston-Salem he was in a 5 losing streak. In Winson-Salem, he struggled to beat 2 bad players in the qualification, Darian King (6-7, 6-4, 6-4) and Rubin (4-6, 7-6, 6-2). He beat Feli easily in the 1st round and he lost against Evans. As I said, I saw that last match and he played incredibly bad. Besides, he needed medical treatment for back problems. Ramos has played in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. He lost against Cilic in 3 sets in Toronto. In Cincinnati he beat Fritz in a 3 set match. He lost against Berrettini in the 2nd round but he was close to win (7-6, 3-6, 5-7). In Winston-Salem, he lost easily against M.Ymer. Ramos' results on this surface are not good and he never has had good results here but Pouille has been playing horrible and the spaniard is the kind of player that gives everything he has when he plays. Besides, he clearly leads the h2h against Pouille (4-1).
Raducanu to beat Brady at 2.10 with bet365
Brady has played only 3 matches since the FO. She lost easily against Giorgi in the Olympics (6-3, 6-2). In Cincinnati, she beat Alexandrova in the 1st round (6-3, 7-6) but then she had to retire (again...) when she was playing against Ostapenko due to her foot injury. She already had to retire when she was playing against Gauff in the FO and then she missed the entire grass season. As I said on a previous post, Raducanu's preparation for this tournament has been good (Landisville and Chicago) and she has beat easily all her opponents of the qualification in straight sets (Schoofs, Bolkvadze and Sherif). Brady won't be at her best and Raducanu is in a good form so at these odds I bet on her.
McNally (+6.5 Games) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.72 with bet365
Pliskova is the favorite player, for sure, but I expect some resistance from McNally here. Pliskova is playing good. She reached the Final in Montreal and the SFs in Cincinnati. McNally has played in Landisville, Cincinnati and Cleveland as a preparation for the USO. She beat some low ranked players and her defeats have been against Minnen (7-5, 6-3), Yastremska (7-6, 7-6) and Kasatkina (2-6, 6-4, 6-2). Pliskova has to win this but IMO this line is exaggerated. It's also important to mention that McNally will have the entire crowd behind her. In the last edition of the USO she beat Kuzmova and Alexandrova and she lost in the 3rd round against Mertens. In 2019 she destroyed Bacsinszky (6-4, 6-1) in the 1st round and then she took a set from Serena Williams in the 2nd round. 

Bedene to beat Nishioka
Chardy  to beat Ivashka
Fritz to beat Johnson

@marzipanProbably Vondrousova.

Felix-Auger Alliasime (-2.5 sets) to beat Monteiro at 1.68 with Pinnacle
I dont think that Monterio is good on this surface. After new coach Felix found his rhytm and I believe that he beat Monterio compartably.

Felix-Auger Alliasime (-2.5 sets) to beat Monteiro at 1.68 with Pinnacle
I dont think that Monterio is good on this surface. After new coach Felix found his rhytm and I believe that he beat Monterio compartably.

Player to Reach Round - Bautista To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.83 with bet365
Player to Reach Round - Felix Auger Aliassime To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.53 with bet365
Player to Reach Round - Kvitova To Reach the 3rd Round - Yes at 1.72 with bet365
Who Will Go Further - Muguruza vs. Andreescu - Muguruza at 1.57 with bet365
RBA will play against Millman in the 1st round and then he will play against Bagnis or Kecmanovic, most likely against the serbian player. In the last edition RBA reached the SFs after beating Gojowczyk, Darcis, Khachanov, Paire and Pella. He lost in the SFs against Djokovic in a 4 set match. He dominates the h2h against Millman (5-1) and Kecmanovic (2-0). I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers but I expect him to win at least these 2 first rounds.
FAA will play against Monteiro in the 1st round round and then he will play against Tsonga or Mikael Ymer in the 2nd round. FAA has played really well in his last 2 tournaments on grass. He beat Harris, Humbert and Querrey in Stuttgart and then he beat Hurkacz, Federer and Giron in Halle. 
Kvitova will play against Stephens in the 1st round and then she will play Ahn or Watson in the 2nd round. Kvitova has played 4 matches on grass (3-1). She beat Piter, Ann Li and Podoroska and she lost in a 3 set match against Kerber (6-3, 4-6, 6-7). Stephens has not played a single match since the FO. Watson in the 2nd round could be a tricky opponent but Kvitova is better and she should beat her, too.
Muguruza did really bad in the last 2 editions here but she has been lucky with the draw. This time she comes here with better form after beating easily Cirstea and Rybakina in Eastbourne. She lost against Cornet in the QFs but she could have won that match (6-4, 3-6, 6-7). She will play against Ferro in the 1st round and Kuznetsova or Kerkhove in the 2nd round. Jabeur is the only player who can trouble her a little bit in the 3rd round and then she will face Swiatek, Bouzkova, Zvonareva or Martic in the 4th round. Andreescu has never won a main draw match here and she comes in a bad form. She has played 3 matches and she only has won 1. She lost against Cornet in Berlin (6-7, 5-7). After that, she beat McHale in a 3 set match but then she lost easily against Kontaveit (6-3, 6-3). She will play against Cornet again in the 1st round. If she beats her then she will have an easier opponent in the 2nd round (Minnen or Tomjlanovic) but then she will have to play Ostapenko or Kasatkina in the 3rd round and then Azarenka, Kontaveit or Vondrousova in the 4th round. She already lost in the 1st round in the FO (vs. Zidansek) and now, with this tricky draw, I wouldn't be surprised if she has another early bye here. Remember that if both players lose in the same round the bet is void.

Barrere to beat Botic Van de Zandschulp at 1.72 with William Hill
Kukushkin (vs. Bublik) To Win a Set - Yes at 1.72 with bet365
Kenin (-3.5 Games) to beat Xinyu Wang at 1.85 with William Hill
I take Barrere over Botic cause the french player has passed the qualification brilliantly despite having one of the toughest draws (Fratangelo, Stakhovsky and Jung). He has a game that suits on grass and he has good record on this surface (16-8). Botic had an easier draw (Lorenzi, Celikbilek and Trungelliti) but he lost in his last match against Trungelliti in 4 sets. He only has played 5 matches on grass and he has a negative record (2-3) so Barrere is the right favorite. Besides, these players have played 2 times before (2020 and 2021) and Barrere has won both. 
I take Kukushkin to win at least one set against Bublik. Kukushkin has had a very bad year (6-15) but he's a good player on grass. In the last edition here he reached the 4th round after beating Andujar, Isner and Struff, not bad at all... He lost in the 4th round against Nishikori but he took a set from him. Bublik beat Kukushkin easily in Eastbourne (6-1, 6-4) just 3 days ago and these odds are clearly influenced by that. I expect a better performance from Kukushkin this time and I think he should take at least one set. 
Kenin has not played a single match since the FO while Xinyu has passed the qualification without dropping a single set (Robin Anderson, Kostova and Smitkova). That being said, I can't imagine Kenin losing in the 1st round against a player whose best ranking ever is 135. Kenin never has done nothing remarkable here but she passed the 1st round in the last 2 editions. Besides, she demonstrated how good she can be on grass when she won in Mallorca after beating Flipkens, Jabeur, Mertens, Sevastova and Bencic. Kenin will play with no pressure cause nobody see her as a candidate and that's what makes her a dangerous player here. Kenin did very bad in the AO and in the FO but this is a completely different case. In Australia she was the current champion and in the FO she was a current finalist but now she will play with no pressure cause she never has done nothing here so she has nothing to lose.
This is what I have for now. Probably will add something later..

Simona Waltert to beat Oceane Dodin at 4.00 with bet365
I have seen some matches from the young swiss player this year and she has impressed me. I saw her in the Altenkirchen ITF, a tournament played on indoors. She played really well there and she destroyed Golubic in the SFs (6-4, 6-2). She lost the Final against Tauson but she took a set from her. Before that she won an ITF tournament played in Manacor in January. In April she reached the SFs in 2 ITF tournaments played on clay and she beat decent players as Hesse, Lottner, Fett, Xiyu Wang, Minella and Barthel. She has beat Ruse easily in her first match here (6-2, 6-2) and she was at 3.00. It has been her first match on grass as a professional but it's important to remark that her best result in a GS as junior was in Wimbledon 2017. She reached the SFs and she lost against Ann Li (7-6, 6-1). She has a really good record this year (29-11). Dodin also has a game that suits really well on fast courts but her record this year is bad (11-16). What shocks me is that she has lost a lot of matches being a huge favorite. Shinikova (6.50), U.Radwanska (4.00), Jia-Jing Lu (5.50), Kung (3.00), Grabher (3.00), Mrdeza (2.00), Hibino (2.20), Paquet (3.00), Stojanovic (2.60) and Rodionova (2.90) are some of the players that have beat Dodin this year. She has a good record on grass (17-16) but she never has passed the qualification here (2019, 2018, 2016 and 2015). The only time she played in the main draw here was in 2017 (she did not play the qualification) and she lost in the 1R. She has suffered too much in her first match here against Eva Guerrero (7-6, 6-3) despite being a huge favorite (1.11). These players met for the first time 1 month ago, in Strasbourg, and Dodin beat Waltert in straight sets (6-4, 7-5). I did not see this match but after taking a look at the stats I can say it was a hard battle. The only difference was that Dodin converted 5 of the 7 break opportunities she had while Waltert only converted 3 of the 10 break points she had. These players have some similarities. Both are tall players (1.80-1.83) who practice an aggressive style of playing but Waltert's record this year (29-11) is much more impressive so I think Dodin (11-16) shouldn't be with these odds.