peanut peanut

Goals....2....0
Bets....100 Win.....77 SR......77% ROI.....1% P/L....+ 1.45   100 bets, That is a good place to finish the thread. I do not have the time to continue.  Good Luck All   

I might as well pack it in then! Why the sudden change? As far as I'm aware there was a previous suggestion of such a minimum odds rule and it wasn't taken up. Surely there must be runs on the board that fall foul of that rule? Are you going to remove them from the current standings? I must protest in the strongest possible terms! (Fairly half-heartedly if I'm honest, but it does seem odd and a bit arbitrary.)
ps - and presumably that rules out laying anything at odds of 101 or more?

Goals....2....0
Bets....100 Win.....77 SR......77% ROI.....1% P/L....+ 1.45   100 bets, That is a good place to finish the thread. I do not have the time to continue.  Good Luck All   

Goals....2....0
Bets....100 Win.....77 SR......77% ROI.....1% P/L....+ 1.45   100 bets, That is a good place to finish the thread. I do not have the time to continue.  Good Luck All   

Goals....2
Bets....93 Win.....74 SR......80% ROI.....5% P/L....+ 4.47

Goals.....4
Bets....86 Win.....70 SR......81% ROI.....7% P/L....+ 6.13

Goals ....2....2
Bets....85 Win.....69 SR......81% ROI.....7% P/L....+ 5.75

Most winners analysis for 2021.

No prizes for this but out of interest a summary of 2021.
Some stellar performers, especially @mick33who produced a fantastic 247 points profit with only 2 months showing a loss. 
6 players produced profits of over 100 points.
Over a third of players made a profit.

Goals ....5
Bets....82 Win.....66 SR......80% ROI.....6% P/L....+ 4.61

Goals ....5 
Bets....81 Win.....65 SR......80% ROI.....5% P/L....+ 4.23

Well done Harry  

This thread will be over 10 years and will bet on any sport etc. I have quite a decent sum to fund this over the ten year period but hopefully it will in time be profitable. £20 a week loss is easily manageable so I've put this as my immediate total if things go very badly.

Hi to everyone.
Alas i've not posted since October 12th due to being rushed to hospital with a severe Pancreas condition , i've unfortunately hit my 80th consecutive day at the hospital today.
Also unfortunate to being too ill to even think about using a computer so basically that's the fundamental and only reason for not posting on this great site.
I'm now starting to get back to some normality by actually looking at sports betting which is always a good measure of improvement and feeling a bit nearer normal despite losing 35lb in weight whilst in hospital.
Fully intend to start posting on all competitions again from Jan 1st although my release from hospital is likely to be around the 12th of Jan.
Apologies to MCCLARKE and all the guys running the other comp's for abstaining all this time as i fully appreciate all the hard work that goes with running all these competitions.
See you all again from Saturday , belated Merry Xmas and have a great New Year.

Have managed to secure full-time employment as a third-sector administrator. While not pupil assistant trainer or bloodstock consultant, it still keeps me from going homeless again and is a position I am very much looking forward to undertaking. Will be a while before I can figure out a rhythm whereby I can set aside time for horsey stuff. Nevertheless, I have a few days to myself over chrimbo so to kick things off, Fontwell's juvenile on Boxing Day
FONTWELL - 26th DECEMBER - PREVIEW
Apart from last season, a juvenile hurdle has been held at Fontwell each Boxing Day since 2013. With the winners having an average seasonal RPR of 121.36, it is generally an above average affair, although it seldom produces anything of note. 2016 winner Rainbow Dreamer would finish second in the Finesse while the next two winners, Aiguille Rouge and Westbrook Bertie, both placed in the Chatteris Fen. However, beyond a handful of horses finishing well beaten in the Fred Winter, that is the extent of the race's prowess. This year's edition is headed by a Gary Moore horse whose first two British outings have resulted in placings at Cheltenham. However, should he fail to perform then the contest would be an average one with good recent form thin on the ground. The circuit at Fontwell is a sharp, flat, left-handed one although due to the distance of juvenile contests and the propensity for the ground to get testing, the winning DIs of 1.39 mean, 1.00 median are within the lowest third of British and Irish venues. Its clear round rate of 95.05% is among the lowest in the country and drops to 90.86% for newcomers. The strike rate of odds on favourites, standing at 51.35%, is nine points below the national average, although this particular contest generally goes to one prominent in the market with the median SP being less than 2/1. The going is currently described as soft and plenty of rain is predicted before post time so although there are only six declared runners, none of whom are habitual frontrunners, stamina will still be a useful attribute. 
Afternoon Tea bg Tony Carroll b1-0-0 (-) 74 j2-0-0 (-) 75 85 
Epaulette (Jeune Homme){5-h}(1.13) 1/2 See The Eagle Fly 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Fontwell 2020
Starting his career in bumpers, graduates of which have a 3.18% overall strike rate in the sphere, Afternoon Tea does not have the worst profile for a juvenile hurdler. Trainer Tony Carroll has a solid winner to runner rate of 21.54% and improvement rate of 51.43%. The pedigree is also interesting as he is an uncle of winning juveniles See The Eagle Fly and Lord Caprio, and the son of an Epaulette with a 28.57% winner to runner rate to date. However, his racecourse performances to date have been modest. After finishing eighth of eleven in a Huntingdon bumper, Afternoon Tea never involved himself in his jumps bow at Ludlow where he trailed in a twenty-one length last of seven. He was last seen five weeks ago in a shallow contest at Exeter where he was backed from a morning show of 25/1 to 17/2 at flagfall. Initially prominent, he rather lost concentration on the long approach to the second where he jumped right and was relegated to midfield. From there, he did not lose further ground but was outpaced on the turn for home and merely stayed on to maintain his position, finishing just over sixteen lengths behind the winner in fourth. Afternoon Tea does not jump badly and he should not have any issues with these conditions, although he does want for class against a number of these rivals.
Appreciate chg Milton Harris f7-0-0 (57) 75 
Australia (Giant's Causeway){19}(0.68) 0.5 Institution 2nd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2019
Milton Harris has had an outstanding season in the sphere to date with four individual winners; three of whom were obtained at the Tattersalls July sale for 17,000 guineas or less. The least expensive of his purchases this term is set to be Appreciate, a seven race maiden for Tom Clover who went for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. Tom Clover, former assistant to David Simcock, has already produced one winning juvenile from three and his former teacher as a source has a winner to runner rate of 17.24% which stands just below average. Appreciate's debut fourth at Newmarket as a two-year-old was his only performance which warranted a mark in the seventies. Beaten favourite on his reappearance in a Bath maiden, he was then well beaten in a Windsor novice. A break, gelding operation and switch to handicap company saw him beat just six of thirty two rivals home in four starts with his mark dropping from 72 to 57. He had excuses when hampered on his penultimate start at Kempton, but there was no such extenuation when last seen finishing sixth of nine at the same venue towards the end of October in first time tongue-tie. His pedigree is not without encouragement as Australia has a solid winner to runner rate of 21.05%, Giant's Causeway has a fair record as a damsire and though the damline is predominantly American flat orientated, half-brother Institution did place at four in a Wexford maiden. It is difficult to get away from the disappointing nature of Appreciate's form but there is some cause for enthusiasm in his profile. The yard's runners in first time cheekpieces have won two from six this year; which could be pertinent given Appreciate's propensity to take a hold in his races.
Cornicello bg Jamie Snowden f6-2-2 (39.0-85.8) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 91 105 
Penny's Picnic (Hawk Wing){4-i}(1.55) 0.5 Breezy Bell 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (90), Ballinrobe 2020
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/4146008/external/20062
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/cornicello
French flat claiming races produce their fair share of winners in the sphere, and while few end up being much better than average over hurdles, those rated 82 and above counted amongst them seven winners from twelve prior to Cornicello's jumps debut at Ffos Las in late October. Cornicello who was claimed for €27,001 after finishing second at Compiegne over twelve furlongs in June was racing under the care of Henk Grewe (whose exports have count zero winners from four to date). After winning a pair of ten furlong contests last October at Stasbourg and Angers, his reappearance came in a listed contest at Longchamp. However, he failed to match the standard and finished a detached last of six. Keeping to listed company, albeit at a lower level, he was next seen at Düsseldorf for their Derby trial where he once again finished sixth, but was at least able to gain places in the closing stages. Moving to calmer waters, his latest appearance came in the aforementioned Compiegne claimer where he hit the front with a furlong to go, but did not look the most resolute under pressure, ultimately going down by a length in the end. While Cornicello's valeur translates to roughly 86 in BHA terms, it is very difficult to apply that kind of rating to his performances and even the RPR of 77 at Longchamp overestimates him by a few pounds. He was the first juvenile hurdler outside of France for his sire Penny's Picnic, whose credentials for the division are not strong. Primarily a sprinter by a Kheleyf whose own record was below average, Penny's Picnic is not the tallest at 1.62m and his strike rate in France is less than 4%. Half-brother Breezy Bell, a moderate handicapper, is the extent of winning jumpers on the nearby damline although the useful Hipsters and Please God appear at 3/2. The negatives notwithstanding, Cornicello's profile is not the worst and he made a respectable start to his new vocation fifty-nine days ago. Though a drifter in the morning, he received support in the ring, starting at 6/1 having been available at 11/1 during the opening exchanges. Tracking the leader on the inside, he was still moving nicely when jumping to the front three from home. However, he was unable to find an extra gear when challenged and after losing the lead at the penultimate flight, was relegated to a thirteen length third by the line. The easy winner emphatically doubled his tally next time at Sandown and the fourth subsequently ran to a similar level, giving the form a solid enough look. Trainer Jamie Snowden has been in fine form as of late and as his juveniles invariably step up on their debut efforts, Cornicello should keep Yorksea honest at the very least.
Many Words bg Tony Carroll f7-0-1 (58) 65 j2-0-0 (-) 79 90 
Kodi Bear (Fraam){2-f}(1.67) 0.5 Maria Magdelena 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2019
Initially with Sheila Lavery in Ireland, Many Words cut little ice on his first four outings, but was able to follow a fourth of sixteen in a Cork handicap off 61 with a third placed finish over twelve furlongs at Tramore in a rated stakes. He failed to see out the extra two furlongs at Navan towards the end of August and would be next seen two months later making his hurdling debut at Ludlow. Steady in the ring and starting at 8/1, he raced prominently but was difficult to settle and would weaken from the home straight before beating only stablemate Afternoon Tea home. His second appearance came at Sandown where he drifted from 11/1 to 25/1 in the ring and never got involved from the rear of the field, finishing a tired and distant last of seven finishers. Many Words is not a bad jumper, but while he is a half-brother to the fair juvenile hurdler Maria Magdalena, he will likely need something much sharper to be seen to decent effect. 
Navegaon Gate bg Nigel Twiston-Davies f7-0-1 (70) 80
Frankel (Montjeu){16-g}(0.52) 0.5 Richard Of Yorke 3rd 4200m Grand National Hurdle, Riccarton Park 2021
Nigel Twiston-Davies is not famous for his juvenile hurdlers and he has only saddled winners in the sphere in just four of the past eleven seasons. This is not to suggest he is without the ability to do so as in the nineties, he was responsible for the likes of Mistinguett, Kerawi and Upgrade while more recently, he has handled such talented sorts as Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Patman du Charmil. A common thread in his more recent juveniles, however, is that these were French breds who often had jumps experience. The most recent exception was Turning Gold who won the Victor Ludorum and finished fifth in the 2018 Frew Winter, propping up the comparatively modest 6.12% strike rate for UK/IRE flat recruits against the trainer's 33.33% rate with hurdlers and 27.78% with flat horses from across the channel. Bidding to turn the tide will be Navegaon Gate who while earning a seventies rating, failed to place in seven outings for Ed Walker. Continuing the theme of modest records, only one of Ed Walker's fourteen former inmates have scored in the sphere despite six of these being rated 77 or higher. Fetching 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Navegaon Gate kept respectable company in Newbury maidens in the spring, finishing ahead of a trio of eighties rated animals on his reappearance, and doing the same when an eight length third behind Manobo and Mojo Star. A switch to handicapping failed to reap rewards however as an eleven length fourth at Newbury off 81 was followed by a gelding operation and three lacklustre efforts at Ffos Las, Haydock and Kempton where he was off the bridle a long way from home on each occasion. Navegaon Gate's pedigree is not without merit for his new vocation as half-brothers Richard Of Yorke and Coolongolook are winning jumpers in New Zealand and Ireland respectively while the useful Father Sky appears at 3/1 on the damline. It is difficult for Frankel to be as good with hurdlers as he is on the flat, but while his improvement rate is an unsurprisingly modest 28.57%, he still has a solid 11.54% strike rate in the sphere and damsire Montjeu is perfectly capable as a damsire of juveniles. If hurdles can reinvigorate Navegaon Gate then he should make a respectable recruit although he will likely benefit from experience. Incidentally, Navegaon Gate is an anagram of "Go an eat vegan" and what kind of vegan would this writer be if he did not highlight and endorse this subliminal propaganda? 
Yorksea chg Gary Moore f6-1-0 (72.6) 66 j2-0-2 (124) 111 122 
Sea The Stars (Pivotal){13-c}(1.82) 7/4 Proschema 2nd West Yorkshire Hurdle (G2), Wetherby 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/yorksea
Gary Moore has a healthy record with his French flat recruits with ten of his twenty-two winning as juveniles, between 2004/05 and this season. This term's most accomplished such recruit to date has been Yorksea, who fetched €32,000 Arqana Summer. He was initially trained by Frédéric Head, whose former inmates have a strong 45.45% winner to runner rate, the strongest of these being Youmdor. Making his debut at Deauville last November, Yorksea cut little ice first time and would also finish down the field twice at Chantilly as well as on his handicap debut at Saint Cloud off 32 (70.4). A step down in class and a revised valeur of 30.5 (67.1) saw him get off the mark at the fifth time of asking in a 2100m handicap at Angers towards the end of May in a race named after his owner's wonder mare Goldikova. Starting at 16/1, Yorksea raced on the outer and moved from midfield to a more prominent position a mile from home. He went into a clear lead at the six furlong point and though he was headed at the distance when turning for home, he rallied gamely against the rail to get up in the final strides from a next time out winner. Yorksea's last race in France came in a good ground Saint Cloud handicap over 3000m in mid-June. Racing prominently once again, he looked in trouble turning into the straight and faded late on to finish just over four lengths behind the winner in fifth. Sire Sea The Stars (Starchitect, Stars Over The Sea) has a solid 30.77% winner to runner rate in the division, although Pivotal's record as a damsire has a more modest rate of 13.24%. Out of the Group One winning filly Queen's Jewel, Yorksea's damline offers no clues insofar as hurdling is concerned with its roots in Argentina. Useful hurdler Proschema does appear at 7/4, although that is so distant enough that it passes into trivial rather than useful information. Notwithstanding, despite the patchy pedigree, Yorksea has thus far acquitted himself well over hurdles, and his first two outings coming at Cheltenham are indicative of the yard's confidence in the horse. Making his British debut in the Grade 2 Prestbury Hurdle in mid November, he was slightly uneasy in the market going from 20/1 to 33/1. Settling in midfield, Yorksea made minor errors off a fairly modest tempo, although these were largely along the lines of giving his flights a little extra air. He found himself outpaced when the race picked up in earnest, but completed the final furlong fastest of all and was able to steal trio places up the hill to finish a three length third. Yorksea returned to the Cotswolds a month later for a Class 2 where he was steady in the ring, sent off the 5/2 favourite. Again racing in the rear, his jumping was hindered by a rival drifting in front of him, but he was much more fluent with a clearer view of the last three flights. Making headway down the hill, he led the pursuit of the leader turning for home and although the winner took full advantage of getting the first run, Yorksea was able to put distance between himself and his rivals. The Prestbury Hurdle form has been franked by Knight Salute taking the Grade 2 Summit Hurdle, and though the runner-up failed to land a maiden next time, he was still plenty clear of the remainder. Yorksea's hurdles achievements are much the strongest on offer here and he represents a yard which has had a winner and two placings in this race along with a 27.78% strike rate with juveniles at the venue. The soft ground is a new factor for Yorksea although on breeding, he should be able to cope. Furthermore, while the potential lack of pace may be an issue, Yorksea does have a turn of foot once he gets going and with Jamie Moore having twenty wins from sixty-five with juveniles around Fontwell, he should have a good idea of when to pull the trigger.
tl:dr
Afternoon Tea - Bred for the game and should be alright in the conditions. Backed on second jumps outing where one paced and will likely want for class here.
Appreciate - Little form after fair flat debut for Tom Clover. Has joined yard that can do little wrong in the sphere and is not unfeasibly bred. Flat form is a concern and a couple of rivals have more substantial profiles.
Cornicello - Strongest flat form on official marks and jumped well when third on hurdles bow at Ffos Las. Juveniles for in-form trainer usually improve from debut and though form is not of Yorksea's calibre, should give him something to ponder.
Many Words - No better than fair maiden on flat in Ireland. Half-brother to reasonable juvenile and not the worst jumper but big question mark over stamina.
Navegaon Gate - Failed to place on flat for trainer whose future juveniles have poor record. Early flat form not without potential and new trainer is capable, albeit with different sorts. May do better with experience.
Yorksea - Winner in France. Thrown in at the deep end since going over hurdles but has acquitted himself well and sets clear standard here. Yard has strong record at the venue. Will be trying soft for the first time and may do with stronger pace but concerns are mitigated by breeding and jockey. 
Strong prospects
1. Yorksea
Reasonable prospects
2. Cornicello
Feasible prospects
3. Appreciate
4. Navegaon Gate
Moderate prospects
5. Afternoon Tea
Negligible prospects
6. Many Words

I just wanted to wish all forumites a very Merry Christmas and most importantly a healthy New Year.
I hope you've enjoyed my ramblings this year and lets hope we can all find a winner or three over the Festive season.
My Boxing Day thoughts are already up and my horse racing tips (available on the 'Racing Tips' link above are available daily from 6PM onwards normally (Boxing Day's will be up tomorrow).
The Brigadier

I don't know, do you? 
No, there is money involved, I'm just very much used to posting my stakes as points because one man's vulgar large stake is another man's pathetic insignificant amount. I don't necessarily want to do away with all the mystery but you might as well assume that 1 point is a quid for the purposes of this thread.
I wouldn't feel it was worth trying this out as a paper trade exercise.

Yeah but does following his selections pay?  They never seem to publish P&L figures for these so-called guru's.  Be ready for another dry spell ?

There's a person on here, (I can see by username, that I don't want to be around, or in contact with) I know its them. Sorry all, this thread is finishing right now. It's a great site, some big racing fans, some interesting insights and honest opinions. Good luck to you all.

Goals ..... 2
Bets....63 Win.....52 SR......83% ROI.....8% P/L....+ 4.79

Goals.....1
Bets....60 Win.....49 SR......82% ROI.....6% P/L....+ 3.80    

Good going Peanut, good return so far. 
Be interesting to see how this goes long term.
 

Goals.....2...3...3
Bets....38 Win.....33 SR......87% ROI.....12% P/L....+ 4.59

Goals......3...3...3...2...2
Bets....28 Win.....24 SR......86% ROI.....10% P/L....+ 2.78

Ok , that is the customary "1st post a loser" out the way  game finished 0-0 with 19 goal attempts between them but never really looked like scoring.
Onwards and upwards we go.