The Brigadier

I'm glad to join!
I've been interested in sports betting for a long time, but only recently started doing it more consciously. I hope socializing here will boost my confidence in making the right choice)

Being sensible so didn't back one horse today and all I've seen is literally every horse you've put up in each thread has won bar one which finished 2nd @ 10/1. Congratulations mate and will teach me for not following 🤦🏼‍♂️. 

changed it to 5.17

nr

kings justice 5.17

don't talk 4.50 ew

lemoncella 4.42

Everyone is exhausted from Aintree exploits I guess
Had an L15 on the daily = 3 points
3.50 Plum Pedley Wood 2 pt win at 5.6 on Betfair (My nap today).  Crystal Moon looks like a real danger but a 12lb rise may take its toll
5 points total staked today

A very quiet day today
I'll have a small wager from my NH system
Plumpton 4..25
PADDY DE POLE

Hiya.
I am sorry missed this from a couple of days ago. Thank you. Justin. 🏇.

Really nice profitable day today, was needed to build my bank back up. Was looking very desperate a couple of days back but now I've built it back up I need to be more sensible with my stakes. Thank you @richard-westwood for all your hard work with the ratings 👍🏼. Cheers @MCLARKE for running the comps and your general support and thank you @Darran for your Oz tips. Enjoy your evenings all 👏🏼

Balls, woulda been a lovely top up too.
Apart from Maximus, the rest of the day was a washout, Master Chewy pipped for a second that was as near as I got.

castle ivors 5.35

What an exciting race ....I really thought kitty was gonna do it two out .   Ain't it a shame placed at 66/1 too ...5th and 6th  .....good runs all you can ask for 

Not so much that I think he'll win but I'd love for Patrick Mullins to win the National.
Barring accident Corach Rambler must go close.
 
With a bit of luck I'll have "Found a Fifty" and got back any losses in the National

vanniliar 4.00 ew kitty's light 4.00 ew 

Used a small freebie from yesterday on that one. You're decent at picking horses, I'll give you that, but after last week's 16/1 winner I'm even better at picking which of yours to back! 

Trends for GN
Last ran in fields of more than 15 runners, 7 from 105, 50 points LSP
Forecast odds rank 2 to 4, 5 from 31, 60 points LSP
This leaves MEETINGOFTHEWATERS at 12/1 (6 places)
 
 

And before you asked I did do a cheeky forecast on this race and the grand national for a bit of fun ....don't know what it'd paid yet though 
Edit ...173.59 
Chambard non runner in national so I replaced with Mahler mission ...just because ...no reason ...seemed as good as any ....the forecast in that would be huge 
That doesn't count to running total though ....only the Ew bets ...so running total since start of flat season beginning is +252.00 after losses and the first race losses too 

1st & 2nd!!!! 🔥🔥🔥🔥
What a guy 👏🏼

Trends for the Freebotter Chase (2.30)
Weight higher than 11st 2lbs, 5 wins from 28 runs, LSP 46 points
This leaves 4, CREBILLY (9/2), KINONDO KWETU (22/1), SAM BROWN (20/1) and FUGITIF (25/1)
Career starts less than 13, 5 from 35, LSP 25
This leaves CREBILLY at 9/2 (4 places)
 

B/Fwd L15's = -56.62 & RC P/L (incl L15's) = -81.52
Had a 0.20 L15 on the Daily = 3 pts
2.30 Aint Forward Plan 0.70 win at 13/2
4.00 Aint Mr Incedible 0.60 win at 12/1
5.00 Aint Quilixios 0.70 win at 11/1
=  5 pts staked today for a full day's entertainment at Aintree

13.20 Aintree
Cuthbert Dribble. 5pt EW
Agree with @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood.
Why 5pt? It's Grand National day, so why not!

Aintree 1.20 Grand National day starts with a valuable twenty two runner Premier Handicap Hurdle with a very open look about it. Pertemps Handicap Hurdle winner Monmiral takes on some of those that finished behind him that day with a 6lb rise to contend with. The third that day was Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Cuthbert Dibble, beaten only 3 1/2L and now 5lb better off, which may be enough to turn the form around and he’s the pick on ground that will suit. Dan Skelton fires three arrows at the race with the Harry Skelton ridden West Balboa, who took this last year from a 6lb lower mark and is unbeaten in two starts here probably the pick of the trio. The unexposed handicap debutant Johnnywho from the Jonjo O’Neill stable is another interesting runner in a contest where cases can be made for plenty but I’m sticking with Cuthbert Dibble each way.   CUTHBERT DIBBLE 1 point each way @ 13-2 bet365 1/5th 123456   Aintree 1.55 A field of nine assemble for the 2M 4F Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s highly regarded mare Brighterdaysahead heads the market following a creditable 1 3/4L second in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham to Golden Ace which has already been franked by the victory of the fourth Jade De Grugy in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse. She looks sure to go well. An ex inmate of Elliott’s, Caldwell Potter may well end up the biggest threat as a Grade 1 winner himself at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s been bought since at the Caldwell Construction Ltd dispersal for an obscene 740,000 euros and makes his stable debut for Paul Nicholls having missed Cheltenham. Gallaghers Novices’ Hurdle second and third Jimmy Du Seuil and Ile Atlantique, both trained by Willie Mullins add further spice to an intriguing race that can fall to Brighterdaysahead.   BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD 1 point win @ 2-1 BetVictor   Aintree 2.30 Just thirteen line up for this 3M 210 yard Premier Handicap Chase. Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly steps up in trip having run well when runner up in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham although he will need to improve his jumping to take a hand in the finish whilst the Skelton runner The King Of Ryhope showed improved form last time out when fourth of five in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot, form which ties him in with the runner up that day Kilbeg King. Anthony Honeyball saddles a trio of possibles in Sam Brown (who won this two years ago by 15L), Forward Plan and Kilbeg King who all have claims. At a bigger price I like the look of the bottom weight trained by Venetia Williams in the shape of Denmat. He ran a stormer for a long way in the 3M 2F Kim Muir Handicap Chase when a 33/1 chance on only his third run for Williams under Miss A O’Connor who rode him positively from the front. He weakened two out ending up 9th beaten 36L but the drop to a sharper track and two furlongs less with Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle can pay dividends and he looks a value each way play with an extra place even if it would of been better had Williams had her string in better form.   DEMNAT 1 point each way @ 20-1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Aintree 3.05 A dozen staying hurdlers assemble for the Grade 1 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s veteran Sire Du Berlais has won this event for the last two years and it would be no shock were he to pull the hat trick off for owner J P McManus. He was one of five from this field that ran in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham 30 days ago with Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter coming out the best of the quintet going down by just under four lengths to the winner Teahupoo with Buddy One (4 1/2L), Sire Du Berlais (7L), Dashel Drasher (10 1/2L) and Crambo (10 3/4L) all behind. Flooring Porter has run well in this race before having finished runner up in 2022 and third last year and he can finally take the contest at the third attempt.   FLOORING PORTER 1 point win @ 7-2 William Hill   Aintree 4.00 A different Grand National with a maximum field of 34 is run over 4M 2F 74 yards and as always looks fiendishly difficult. Last year’s winner and runner up Corach Rambler and Vanillier are back again and both hold chances. With the ground being so soft this year you’re going to need to stay well and the race may fall to one of Willie Mullins’s eight in the shape of I Am Maximus who won the Irish Grand National last season under Paul Townend who is reunited with the eight year old having prepped for this by taking the 3M Bobbyjo Chase in February with Vanillier 14L back in second and now 4lb worse off. He does have his quirks mind but if he takes to the whole experience he may just be too classy for his rivals. John C McConnell’s Mahler Mission looks to have been mapped out for this having not been seen since November and can also go well as he will stay well and loves the mud. The best of the outsiders may well be Delta Work, one of eight trained in the race by Gordon Elliott who was still going ok when unseating eight from home last year. He sports first time blinkers and having been placed in the race two years ago will stay well. Of those at monster prices, Venetia Williams’s Chambard appeals as the sort to run well having shown he handles the fences and heavy ground by winning the Becher Chase last November.   I AM MAXIMUS 1 point each way @ 8-1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345 MAHLER MISSION 1 point each way @ 16-1 bet365 1/5th 123456 DELTA WORK 1/2 point each way @ 20-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567 CHAMBARD 1/4 point each way @ 66-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567   Aintree 5.00 The valuable Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase is run over 2M and we have ten speedy chasers facing the judge. The favourite and the one they all have to beat is Gordon Elliott’s Found A Fifty. His 8 1/2L second spot in the Arkle at Cheltenham to Gaelic Warrior was given a big boost by the third that day Il Etait Temps winning at Aintree on Thursday. At a price I expect Sarah Humphrey’s Nickle Back to run well as a natural front runner who may well be suited by the track and may get an easy lead. He’s worth a small each way saver. The Willie Mullins trained Hercule Du Seuil is chasing a six timer and can’t be dismissed even though we haven’t seen him since the autumn.   FOUND A FIFTY 1 point win @ 2-1 bet365 NICKLE BACK 1/4 point each way @ 11-1 bet365 1/5th 123   Aintree 5.35 The three day Aintree Grand National finishes with a 2M 1F Grade 2 NH Flat race. The Jonjo O’Neill trained favourite Mister Meggit has won bumpers at Carlisle and Doncaster in the mud without coming off the bridle and literally could be anything. He’s been priced accordingly mind. Emma Lavelle has her string in decent shape and her runner here Ma Shantou can reward an each way wager. Costing a cool £120,000 last December following a third in a Fairyhouse bumper he too made a scintillating British debut when bolting up at Huntingdon last month. It’s hard to know what he beat that day as nothing has run since from the race but I can see him running well under Tom Bellamy. The impression made by Mister Meggit though means he is the main bet although a small each way saver on Ma Shantou is also advised.   MISTER MEGGIT 1 point win @ 9-4 bet365 MA SHANTOU 1/2 point each way @ 7-1 bet365 1/5th 1234  

Aintree 1.20 Grand National day starts with a valuable twenty two runner Premier Handicap Hurdle with a very open look about it. Pertemps Handicap Hurdle winner Monmiral takes on some of those that finished behind him that day with a 6lb rise to contend with. The third that day was Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Cuthbert Dibble, beaten only 3 1/2L and now 5lb better off, which may be enough to turn the form around and he’s the pick on ground that will suit. Dan Skelton fires three arrows at the race with the Harry Skelton ridden West Balboa, who took this last year from a 6lb lower mark and is unbeaten in two starts here probably the pick of the trio. The unexposed handicap debutant Johnnywho from the Jonjo O’Neill stable is another interesting runner in a contest where cases can be made for plenty but I’m sticking with Cuthbert Dibble each way.   CUTHBERT DIBBLE 1 point each way @ 13-2 bet365 1/5th 123456   Aintree 1.55 A field of nine assemble for the 2M 4F Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s highly regarded mare Brighterdaysahead heads the market following a creditable 1 3/4L second in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham to Golden Ace which has already been franked by the victory of the fourth Jade De Grugy in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse. She looks sure to go well. An ex inmate of Elliott’s, Caldwell Potter may well end up the biggest threat as a Grade 1 winner himself at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s been bought since at the Caldwell Construction Ltd dispersal for an obscene 740,000 euros and makes his stable debut for Paul Nicholls having missed Cheltenham. Gallaghers Novices’ Hurdle second and third Jimmy Du Seuil and Ile Atlantique, both trained by Willie Mullins add further spice to an intriguing race that can fall to Brighterdaysahead.   BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD 1 point win @ 2-1 BetVictor   Aintree 2.30 Just thirteen line up for this 3M 210 yard Premier Handicap Chase. Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly steps up in trip having run well when runner up in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham although he will need to improve his jumping to take a hand in the finish whilst the Skelton runner The King Of Ryhope showed improved form last time out when fourth of five in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot, form which ties him in with the runner up that day Kilbeg King. Anthony Honeyball saddles a trio of possibles in Sam Brown (who won this two years ago by 15L), Forward Plan and Kilbeg King who all have claims. At a bigger price I like the look of the bottom weight trained by Venetia Williams in the shape of Denmat. He ran a stormer for a long way in the 3M 2F Kim Muir Handicap Chase when a 33/1 chance on only his third run for Williams under Miss A O’Connor who rode him positively from the front. He weakened two out ending up 9th beaten 36L but the drop to a sharper track and two furlongs less with Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle can pay dividends and he looks a value each way play with an extra place even if it would of been better had Williams had her string in better form.   DEMNAT 1 point each way @ 20-1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Aintree 3.05 A dozen staying hurdlers assemble for the Grade 1 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s veteran Sire Du Berlais has won this event for the last two years and it would be no shock were he to pull the hat trick off for owner J P McManus. He was one of five from this field that ran in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham 30 days ago with Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter coming out the best of the quintet going down by just under four lengths to the winner Teahupoo with Buddy One (4 1/2L), Sire Du Berlais (7L), Dashel Drasher (10 1/2L) and Crambo (10 3/4L) all behind. Flooring Porter has run well in this race before having finished runner up in 2022 and third last year and he can finally take the contest at the third attempt.   FLOORING PORTER 1 point win @ 7-2 William Hill   Aintree 4.00 A different Grand National with a maximum field of 34 is run over 4M 2F 74 yards and as always looks fiendishly difficult. Last year’s winner and runner up Corach Rambler and Vanillier are back again and both hold chances. With the ground being so soft this year you’re going to need to stay well and the race may fall to one of Willie Mullins’s eight in the shape of I Am Maximus who won the Irish Grand National last season under Paul Townend who is reunited with the eight year old having prepped for this by taking the 3M Bobbyjo Chase in February with Vanillier 14L back in second and now 4lb worse off. He does have his quirks mind but if he takes to the whole experience he may just be too classy for his rivals. John C McConnell’s Mahler Mission looks to have been mapped out for this having not been seen since November and can also go well as he will stay well and loves the mud. The best of the outsiders may well be Delta Work, one of eight trained in the race by Gordon Elliott who was still going ok when unseating eight from home last year. He sports first time blinkers and having been placed in the race two years ago will stay well. Of those at monster prices, Venetia Williams’s Chambard appeals as the sort to run well having shown he handles the fences and heavy ground by winning the Becher Chase last November.   I AM MAXIMUS 1 point each way @ 8-1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345 MAHLER MISSION 1 point each way @ 16-1 bet365 1/5th 123456 DELTA WORK 1/2 point each way @ 20-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567 CHAMBARD 1/4 point each way @ 66-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567   Aintree 5.00 The valuable Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase is run over 2M and we have ten speedy chasers facing the judge. The favourite and the one they all have to beat is Gordon Elliott’s Found A Fifty. His 8 1/2L second spot in the Arkle at Cheltenham to Gaelic Warrior was given a big boost by the third that day Il Etait Temps winning at Aintree on Thursday. At a price I expect Sarah Humphrey’s Nickle Back to run well as a natural front runner who may well be suited by the track and may get an easy lead. He’s worth a small each way saver. The Willie Mullins trained Hercule Du Seuil is chasing a six timer and can’t be dismissed even though we haven’t seen him since the autumn.   FOUND A FIFTY 1 point win @ 2-1 bet365 NICKLE BACK 1/4 point each way @ 11-1 bet365 1/5th 123   Aintree 5.35 The three day Aintree Grand National finishes with a 2M 1F Grade 2 NH Flat race. The Jonjo O’Neill trained favourite Mister Meggit has won bumpers at Carlisle and Doncaster in the mud without coming off the bridle and literally could be anything. He’s been priced accordingly mind. Emma Lavelle has her string in decent shape and her runner here Ma Shantou can reward an each way wager. Costing a cool £120,000 last December following a third in a Fairyhouse bumper he too made a scintillating British debut when bolting up at Huntingdon last month. It’s hard to know what he beat that day as nothing has run since from the race but I can see him running well under Tom Bellamy. The impression made by Mister Meggit though means he is the main bet although a small each way saver on Ma Shantou is also advised.   MISTER MEGGIT 1 point win @ 9-4 bet365 MA SHANTOU 1/2 point each way @ 7-1 bet365 1/5th 1234