alexcaruso808

You say the outcome is random, and it is partially. But as you say the odds are usually accurate, especially on the exchanges and especially closer to the start of the match. The  more money that comes in on a market, the more accurate the price is for that match day/situation. So to make long term profits you need to bet at a higher price than the true price, with the true price being most accurate at the start of the match, when all the money has come in. 
So look at the Arsenal Spurs odds for this weekend. Arsenal are currently at 1.76, but have been backed as high as 1.83. You want to be getting your bets on early, when you think the price will drop before the start. 
If you're betting at 1.83  (54.6% chance) and the price ends up at 1.72 (58.1%) then you have a value bet and long term you should profit, because you're getting paid £83 (or £79 with 5% commission) for a 1.72 bet.
How do you know if the price will drop? You don't, and that's the hard part. You need to usually use information that the general public don't use, because info the public use is already priced into the market. Finding smaller markets is better for this, rather than the Premier league. I read a story about a guy who became an expert in the Conference League (non league what ever it's called now, I don't follow lower football) goalkeepers. He studied them all, watched their games, highlights, form, knew who was important to their team more than others and so when a keeper was missing etc, he knew something most of the public didn't, and knew a team was value or not. 
That's you're edge, I remember another guy in a book who bet on horses, he would go to the track and watch and he noticed that a certain pathway on the course was a bit more worn than other parts or something, so that horse should have an advantage. He backed a high odds winner at 50/1 or something. Again, info that the general public don't have access to. 
Become an expert in a smaller market, or bigger market with info that the general public don't really have, or don't use anyway. If you're looking at how many games go over 2.5 goals on soccer stats or whatever and just using that then you won't have an edge and you won't win long term. 

Excellent returns, Harry.  Long may it continue.  

Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI 2 8 £40.00 £74.25 £34.25 85.63% That's how things look with the Hills Epic Boost offer. Going to take a long time to accumulate meaningful data given it's once per week. 365 offer running at 12.6% ROI after 111 bets (33.1% with the boost applied). Still nicely in front with the real money betbuilder bets, largely based on goalscorer elements. Probably try one on the Coventry game later.

Going early with this week's Hills double up boost (though it's 50% this week; seems to be random whether it doubles or adds 50%!) Liverpool double chance with Salah and Nunez both to score at 6.25.

Nice winner to keep things ticking over on the “double up” front. Did mean to do the Newcastle game and pretty sure I’d have hit a winner given how it ended up! Wilson was a solid anytime pick at a decent price on the exchange so got that at least. Update tomorrow.

12 points on Benrahma at 9/5 with Uni

12 points on Diaz (Liverpool) at 2.8
12 points on Batshuayi (Fenerbahce) at 15/8 with Uni (had to top up with 13/8 Sky Bet which still qualifies; will record to the average odds obtained)
12 points each on Aaronson and Embibe (E Frankfurt) at 4.4 and 4.8 (unusually big prices for a qualifier under this system)

12 points on Barnes (Norwich) at 9/4 with 365

Bet 2 WON
Bank €11.47

Wins Bets Stake Return P/L ROI Boosted P/l ROI Ave 34 109 £2,180.00 £2,499.83 £319.83 14.67% £2,954.78 £774.78 35.54% 4.14                     Goals Win DC BTTS Cards Anytime S(oT) Misc     73 60 19 38 36 36 55 7     46 36 14 25 30 15 35 3     63.0% 60.00% 73.68% 65.79% 83.33% 41.67% 63.64% 42.86%     Still feels too god to be sustainable to me so we press on to build a bigger data sample. Over £400 up to real money bets, helped out by some very nice player to score doubles. Definitely glad to have been drawn into looking at this type of bet based on experiences so far.

5 from 7 since the last update (Weghorst, Vlahovic, Wilson, Pirloe and Kleindienst)
76 winners from 204 bets so far for a profit of 387.74 points with an ROI of 18.38%.
18.6 points lost on 7 bets posted in error.
Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 15.12% (now based on 597 bets from 3369 selections).

12 points on Kleindienst (Heidenheim) at 19/10 with Hills
No doubt Su Pollard's favourite Bundesliga club! 

12 points on Piroe (Leeds) at 3.55

12 points on Wilson at 8/5 with 365

Any game where both spread firms are quoting the player goal minutes market first and foremost (a pre-requisite for a system bet). Pretty much all Prem, most La Liga and Serie A, televised games in France, Germany and other UK leagues. I might look at other games where one firm is quoting the goal minutes but it would be a "studied" bet rather than an automatic one. When I'm "on duty" I just plough through the games as the line-ups come through. Some players stick in your mind so I'll always back them if the price is in the ballpark of my minimum odds. I'd hardly ever even look at any game that didn't have at least one of the spread firms quoting prices. I'd have nothing to orientate myself against!

City as a fav with the line -1 is also good option now. Still for me; I bet dogs.

Harry how do you select what games to bet on?  On a Saturday there are so many high quality games, it's hard to pick!

12 points on Vlahovic (juventus) at 21/10 with 365

Leicester DC (draw or win), >2 goals and Armstrong >1.5 shots at 2/1

Day 3 won: 3.3 units profit (have not included bet boost winnings). 

Running total: 3 bets, 1 winning bet, 1.3 units profit. 

Going for lower odds generally in this thread and hopefully safer bets, planning to stick mainly to Laying Correct Score, Match shots and +3 generally. The Ultimate goal is purely Over 0.5 Goals and the Back in the ring will have a bit of everything but with better odds, betting will vary between Goals, Corners, Cards, etc... but generally higher odds

Another returnee................a few more and it will be like "The Return of The Magnificent Seven". 😁

It's been a while...
Bet 1
Bournemouth v Tottenham
Tottenham +3
€ 10 @ 1.04

Bet 17
PSG v Nice
Over 0.5 Goals
€14.99 @ 1.04

Bet 16 WON
Bank €14.99