Zilzalian

ran fine race  4th { paid ew money} 

Speed in no particular order.
Hello you             40/1
Mise en scene      20/1
Sandrine               33/1
Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)
Catchet                 20/1
aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4
Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.
 
Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

Big prices so I'll add 50p forecasts top 4 

Speed in no particular order.
Hello you             40/1
Mise en scene      20/1
Sandrine               33/1
Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)
Catchet                 20/1
aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4
Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.
 
Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

1.50 Newmarket 
Red Verdon 9.1 (14/1)
Cemhaan 8.6 (5/1) 1st
Revolver 8.4 (15/2) 2nd 
Red Vernon potentially thrown in with his 7Ibs claimer Harry Davies 42% strike rate last two weeks. Also drop down in class . 
 
5 point wins top two 
 

Speed in no particular order.
Hello you             40/1
Mise en scene      20/1
Sandrine               33/1
Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)
Catchet                 20/1
aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4
Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.
 
Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

Speed in no particular order.
Hello you             40/1
Mise en scene      20/1
Sandrine               33/1
Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)
Catchet                 20/1
aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4
Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.
 
Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

1000 guineas 
Tenebrism   9.0  4/1 
Cachet     8.6   22/1 
Mis en scene   8.4  20/1 
Prosperous voyage   8.2 
Hard to know how tenebrism will cope with the huge step up from 6f to 8f ....she's the most likely winner given o brien record but there looks plenty of value to take her  on .....Cachet proved she can stay 8f last year and was staying on strong over 7f recently ....so looks worth a shot ....the other two have collateral firm with Cachet but mis en scene could have more to give as was a little unlucky so I'll take those 2,ew as value bets 
5pt ew Cachet....and ..mis en scene..... 24x10p tricasts 

Speed in no particular order.
Hello you             40/1
Mise en scene      20/1
Sandrine               33/1
Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)
Catchet                 20/1
aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4
Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.
 
Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

235 super citizen
310 agusta gold
350 burning victory
425 ten ten
500 fil dor
530 the very man
605 path d'oroux
635 amir kabir

I think innatendue is a great price i had it in my tracker when it used to be trained in france.

yeah watched it so sad

Native Trail 5/4 tells you all you need to know about value and betting. That was a seriously competetive guineas with a 5/4 fav even trying the fc and tc was pathetic on those horses at those prices.

paid ew extra places bet365
berkshire shadow (didnt stay)
lusail                     (slow to go)
Happy with the figures.

Corebus wins ...Native 2nd ...Luxembourg 3rd ....would have been another tricast but only paid 3.16 for 10p so I'll let that one slide?

all valid points and it is high in my ratings just not high enough. you wouldnt believe how often i have heard those arguments over the years and they are valid but i can only go with what i have. there will be a few who will say "told you so" if native trail wins and if it loses they will have an excuse for it, and i will take them seriously if they show me a pic of the £100 quid they had on. and still i will know that no ratings produce a winner everytime so i simply move on to next race.

all valid points and it is high in my ratings just not high enough. you wouldnt believe how often i have heard those arguments over the years and they are valid but i can only go with what i have. there will be a few who will say "told you so" if native trail wins and if it loses they will have an excuse for it, and i will take them seriously if they show me a pic of the £100 quid they had on. and still i will know that no ratings produce a winner everytime so i simply move on to next race.

Well arrogance aside which i really am guilty of, my ratings make money year in and year out its the other rubbish i fiddle about with that costs me money, look at your answer to my question. it has nothing to do with your thinking or opinion apart from reading other peoples "stuff" and amplifying it. maybe thats why you keep losing money year on year which means other people lose it for you. I love the fact i came up with an idea learnt how to create formula in excel, put it into practice and it was succesful. you have spent 11 points today if all your selections win how much overall will you collect? dont forget your double handed with some of your points so apart from a dead heat you have already backed losers before they run.

Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.
I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.
I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?

Speed figures 2000 Guineas
1 Perfect Power             227                14/1
2 Lusail                           222                50/1
2 Berkshire Shadow      222                80/1
4 Luxembourg               221                11/2
On the face of it this seems to be the open most Guineas I have ever rated if you strip away all the hype.
It will depend on not who will stay the best but who is capable of staying the mile on the day.
Don't be surprised if point lonsdale finishes in front of luxembourg.
I am hoping for a serious F/C T/C . I really believe that there is a good posibility of a shocker of a result this year.
For the small punter ew backers that 80/1 for Berkshire Royal is well worth a little tickle. (prices bet365 at time of posting)

interesting you have luxembourg, lusail, perfect power match my speed figures, whre does berkshire shadow fit in with you? also lusail and perfect power have distance issues if you believe the "pundits"

Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?

Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?

Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?