TheLoneBettor
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Posts posted by TheLoneBettor
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Kempton 12.45 Live Stream Win 9/2 PP
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Looking at trainers with 1st time out 2 year old's on the All Weather.
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This is just a quick search and something I will be watching and improving. Has a pretty good Strike Rate but it is a long term strategy as 11 losers in a row. It has a good consistency and is carrying that forward in 2020 with a 30% SR. There is one qualifier today in the 12.45 at Kempton - Live Stream. I'll use that as my nap of the day.
This will be my last post. Thanks to all who appreciated what I was doing but I get the feeling systems are not really supported on this site due to the lack of interaction. HRB needs its own forum.
Regards
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I've just spent a few hours on HRB looking for more angles for Royal Ascot. In my view it has got to be one of the hardest meetings to work out where the winners are going to come from. Its probably why many see it as the greatest race meeting in the world as it is just so competitive. Class 1 and Class 2 races with loads of money up for grabs so I can see why trainers love this meeting.
Anyhow I have tried loads of combinations and deleted angles that just seemed not worth carrying on with. So I came up with this Micro-Angle but it doesn't really have enough data. However, I do think it is worth a look as there are not many bets each year. I already have a Micro-Angle for Royal Ascot (Above post) but I wanted a second one. Maybe just for research purposes to do with Micro-Angles to see if they merit a place in my stored systems.
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I did do quite a bit of breaking down here with all kinds of things and I have gone back to 2012. Not many bets I know but it has a slight consistency as you will see below.
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I am going on the fact that as long as there are about 8 qualifiers then I think just a few quid can be justified as a Micro-Angle test. Not life changing money I know but systems like this will probably need working on in the future. Well, that's me finished looking for angles at Royal Ascot. For this year at least.
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Here are some Royal Ascot stats I researched on HRB.
Trainers who have had at least 20 runners since 2017 (Last 3 meetings)
First thing that stands out is that the Winning Strike Rates are pretty poor.
Looking at the Trainer with the highest Strike Rate gives a different picture entirely.
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Sir Michael Stoute with 15% and an ROI of 29.37% at (BSP) looks like the best Trainer to follow at Royal Ascot, bearing in mind he didn't have a winner in 2017. In the Place Betting Market he has a massive 47.5% with an ROI of 61.43% at (BSP).
Lets have a look at his overall performances below.
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He seems to have a consistent amount of runners each year. His Place Strike Rate is the stand out one for me. 2018 was a good year so I'm guessing the market caught up with him last year but overall in my opinion he is the one to watch in the Place Betting Market.
I'll be doing some more research today so if I find anything of interest I will post it here later.
Carrying on with Sir Michael Stoute I have done some fine tuning by putting in the Odds Forecast which eliminated 7 of his bets which were either too short a price to be worth a place (Did not show a profit*) and horses above 15*.
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As you can see the Place Strike Rate, P/L and ROI are all up after removing the short and long priced runners.
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His long term stats have also improved. This will be my betting angle for Royal Ascot next week. I just hope the prices are worth it.
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Beverley 15.50 Kylie Rules Win 10/1 BetVictor
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Not much going on today. A lot of my qualifiers are no where near 1.99 apart from 1.
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17.40 Lingfield Bayar Bet Matched at 1.63 Placed 3rd Lost -£23.00
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8 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said:
14.50 Pontefract Lion Tower Unmatched at 2.15 Stake returned. I got lucky again because it placed 2nd. Other 2 horses no where near getting matched.
15.20 Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall Matched at 1.98 Placed 2nd. Lost £23.00
16.20 Pontefract Shauyra Matched at 1.51 Placed 3rd Lost £23.00
17.20 W'Hampton Bavardages Matched at 1.55 Placed 2nd Lost £23.00
3 matched bets and 3 losers today. £69.00 loss. Its been a funny day because 2 of my qualifiers I thought should have been matched drifted out just before the off and did not place. Oh well, I have some more qualifiers tomorrow so until then.
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ODDS-ON PLACE LAYS SYSTEM - Starting Bank £500.00 - 25 Bets Ratchet Plan Bet Date Time Track Qualifier Jockey Trainer Stake Plc Odds Plc Paid Position Runners P/L (-2%) Bank Now 1 08/06/20 12.45pm Haydock Brad the Brief R Kingscote T Dascombe £20.00 1.86 3 1 11 -£20.00 £480.00 2 08/06/20 1.30pm Naas Yale S Heffernan A O’Brien £20.00 1.86 4 6 17 £22.72 £502.72 3 09/06/20 5.45pm Chelmsford Sovereign Grant R Moore Sir M Stoute £20.00 1.48 2 6 7 £40.52 £543.24 4 09/06/20 6.30pm W’Hampton Batalha F Norton M Johnston £20.00 1.42 3 7 8 £46.24 £589.48 5 10/06/20 3.20pm Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall J Fanning M Johnston £23.00 1.98 3 2 9 -£23.00 £566.48 6 10/06/20 4.20pm Pontefract Shauyra B A Curtis W J Haggas £23.00 1.51 3 3 12 -£23.00 £543.48 2 losing bets so far today but overall its a 50% SR and £43.48 in profit. As this system operates around a 50% SR I think so far okay. Especially when you get the under 1.50's matched and they win. I may have a couple more bets today.
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I think this is a very interesting thread because of the subject VALUE. So I have done a fictional horse race below for fun. I've named the horses after planets, just because I like cosmology. And I'm also bored waiting for my first race.
Solar System 14.30 5 Furlongs
Horse Form SP Odds Over-Round% Statistics
1. Mercury 2 5/2 28.57% Trainer has a 33% Win Strike Rate when LTO was 2nd.
2. Venus 2 4/1 20% Trainer and Jockey Combo have a 25% Win Strike Rate when at this track.
3 Earth 2 5/1 16.67% Stallion and Dam have a 22.5% Win Strike Rate with Horses Trainer.
4 Mars 2 6/1 14.28% Owner of Horse has 20% Win Strike Rate with Jockey.
5 Jupiter 2 7/1 12.5% Trainer has 17% Win Strike Rate when Horses SP is between 6/1 and 10-1
6 Saturn 2 8/1 11.11% Trainer has 15% Win Strike Rate with Horses at this distance.
103.13 %
Which one would you bet on? I think from my value perspective each horse has its own merits. If I had to bet on one I suppose it would be Mercury because it is favourite and has the higher strike rate from a stats perspective. But from my point of view which ever horse won this race there was value to be had because of the stats v the prices. I would not personally bet in a race like this but I would make a note of each stat and work on future races with them.
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Pontefract 15.50 Well Funded E/W 22/1 bet365
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14.50 Pontefract Lion Tower Unmatched at 2.15 Stake returned. I got lucky again because it placed 2nd. Other 2 horses no where near getting matched.
15.20 Pontefract Anyonecanhaveitall Matched at 1.98 Placed 2nd. Lost £23.00
16.20 Pontefract Shauyra Matched at 1.51 Placed 3rd Lost £23.00
17.20 W'Hampton Bavardages Matched at 1.55 Placed 2nd Lost £23.00
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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:
So whats value then???
People have different theories about value
Is it just a price you think is bigger than you first thought?
Is it just avoiding short priced fav's? (although some would argue an odds on fav can be value)
Or is it just backing at big prices and suffering long losing runs.
Is EW value betting?
*Dont forget the prices are being worked out differently at the minute too, the landscape is changing.
People have different theories about value.
Yes, that's an absolutely true statement. One persons value is another persons mug bet.
I should have made it clear about what I see as value. My idea of value is statistical. I believe in trends and sequences. For example if one trainer has a greater strike rate at a certain track than the other trainers then the market will reflect that. His or her horses are more than likely to be favourite than not. Would I see that as value? It would depend on the prices. But if there was another trainer in the race who was good at buying sellers and on their first outing for him/her had a 50% strike rate of getting a place, and the odds were attractive then yes, I would see that as a value bet and also a long term strategy. I can then confidently say to myself "That's a value bet".
Its only a matter of time whether or not my perception of value has come true. Whatever the outcome is I still believe my own perception of value can pay off in the long run. Some will work and some won't.
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I probably will have a few bets on today so from now I will just put them all in one post and update the results as they come.
Not all these will be matched but I have done it this way not because I am lazy, it just saves time.
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2 lay bets matched today and 2 winners at 1.42 & 1.48 £86.76 profit. 4.33 points.
I can't see my 21.00 Wolverhampton bet getting matched. It looks like I have a few qualifiers for tomorrow. Until then.
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I'm a huge fan of value bets as well, Richard. I believe you have a sensible approach to it and you certainly have the bank for it.
I believe in the long run value bets have an advantage if you choose them correctly because bookmakers are human as well (c'est la vie) and they do make mistakes.
I wish you well with your system.
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Probably my last bet today.
W'Hampton 20.30 Competition 3 to be placed. It's hovering around the 2.00 mark.
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What a drifter!! Unmatched at BSP 3.01 It thought this bet was a cert to be matched. Has luck has it my stake was returned - Competition was placed 3rd. I suppose it goes with the territory, some of my unmatched bets get a place and some don't.
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With the bank now at £589.48 this time I will remember to up the stakes. Stakes now £23.00
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W'Hampton 18.30 Batalha 3 to be placed. This is a different lay system where the maximum odds are 1.50 or less.
Forgot to put the extra £1.00 on lol. Touch and go it will get matched.
Matched at 1.42 Unplaced. Profit of £46.24 Would have been more if I had remembered to add an extra £1.00
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ODDS-ON PLACE LAYS SYSTEM - Starting Bank £500.00 - 25 Bets Ratchet Plan Bet Date Time Track Qualifier Jockey Trainer Stake Plc Odds Plc Paid Position Runners P/L (-2%) Bank Now 1 08/06/20 12.45pm Haydock Brad the Brief R Kingscote T Dascombe £20.00 1.86 3 1 11 -£20.00 £480.00 2 08/06/20 1.30pm Naas Yale S Heffernan A O’Brien £20.00 1.86 4 6 17 £22.72 £502.72 3 09/06/20 5.45pm Chelmsford Sovereign Grant R Moore Sir M Stoute £20.00 1.48 2 6 7 £40.52 £543.24 As I said in an earlier post the stakes will rise by a £1.00 for every £25 profit above the starting bank. My stakes now will be at £21.00 per bet.
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Chelmsford 17.45 Sovereign Grant and Godhead 2 to be placed at 1.99 or less. Sovereign Grant will get matched with a current price now in the 1.30's. Godhead is not far away from the 2.00 mark, currently at the 2.20 mark.
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Sovereign Grant matched at 1.48 finished unplaced. Profit of £40.52
Godhead unmatched at 2.14 Won the race. Stake returned.
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I'm going to put up the bets I think will get matched. If other bets of mine look like they are steaming in I will put them up as and when it happens.
Chelmsford 17.45 Sovereign Grant and Godhead 2 to be placed at 1.99 or less.
W'Hampton 18.30 Batalha 3 to be placed at 1.50 or less.
W'Hampton 20.30 Competition 3 to be placed at 1.99 or less.
All £20 Fixed Liability. I'll post the bets nearer to the time.
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7 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said:
Place Lay Bets on Betfair.
Naas 16.30 Yale 4 to be placed. Unplaced at BSP 1.86 £22.72 profit.
Haydock 12.45 Brad The Brief 3 to be placed. Won at BSP 1.86 £20.00 loss.
Haydock 15.15 Phuket Power 3 to be placed. No bet as BSP 2.23 Stake returned.
£20 each Fixed Liability (3pts) Must be matched at 1.99 or lower at BSP to be a qualifier.
Nought to shout home about £2.72 profit today.
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Okay, 3 qualifiers - 2 bets, 1 winner. Nought to shout home about but £2.72 up. I hope better things ahead. Until then.
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A late bet. Phuket Power 15.15 Haydock.
No bet. BSP 2.23 Drifted out 5 mins before race. And it did not place
Odds-On Place-Lays
in Glory Hunters
Posted · Edited by TheLoneBettor
System not producing.
Might have around 4/5 bets today as these horses forecast odds suggest they will be around the laying price criteria. Newbury Flat Lays is the standard 1.99 or less.
After trying to fine tune this system because of lack of bets, I am having a rethink on how to go about this. I am developing a new strategy so I will be updating some time in the future.